Why did the Russian Economy not Collapse under the Influence of Sanctions?

DOI: 10.33917/es-3.195.2024.16-27

Chronicles of the trade and economic war (sanctions, restrictions, etc., in fact, attempts to organize an economic, scientific and technical blockade) of the conventionally united West against Russia after 2014 in general and after the beginning of the Limited Military Operation in particular clearly demonstrate that Atlantic opponents didn’t manage to defeat us economically. They don’t understand why that happened… Russia, to the whole world’s surprise, is successfully realizing its economic potential, monetizing it into stability of the political regime and building up a victorious defence potential. What’s the cause of such macroeconomic stability (national strength) of Russia?

References:

1. Isard W. Interregional and Regional Input-Output Analysis: A Model of a Space Economy. Review of Economics and Statistics, 1951, vol. 33, pp. 318–328.

2. Leontief W., Strout A. Multiregional Input-Output Analysis. Structural Interdependence and Economic Development (ed. T. Barna). London, Macmillan (St. Martin’s Press), 1963, pp. 119–149.

3. Koopman R., Wang Z., Wei Shang-Jin. Tracing Value-Added and Double Counting in Gross Exports. NBER Working Paper no 18579, Cambridge, National Bureau of Economic Research, 2012.

4. Makarov V.L., Bakhtizin A.R., Sushko E.D. Natsional’naya strategicheskaya sila stran, mezhdunarodnaya torgovlya i ekonomicheskaya uspeshnost’ stran v nestabil’nom mire [National Strategic Power of Countries, International Trade and Economic Success of Countries in the unstable World]. Strategirovanie: teoriya i praktika, 2023, vol. 3, no 3(9), pp. 277–297.

5. Ageev A.I., Bakhtizin A.R., Makarov V.L., Loginov E.L., Khabriev B.R. Ekonomicheskiy fundament pobedy: strategicheskiy prognoz ustoychivosti ekonomiki Rossii v

usloviyakh sanktsionnykh atak [Economic Foundation of Victory: a Strategic Forecast for the Russian Economy Stability in the Face of Sanctions]. Ekonomicheskie strategii,

2023, vol. 25, no 3(189), pp. 6–15, DOI: https://doi.org/10.33917/es-3.189.2023.6-15

6. Makarov V.L., Il’in N.I., Bakhtizin A.R., Khabriev B.R. Natsional’naya sila stran mira: otsenka i prognoz [National Strength of the Countries in the World: Evaluation and Forecast]. Ekonomicheskie strategii, 2022, vol. 24, no 6(186), pp. 38–51, DOI: https://doi.org/10.33917/es-6.186.2022.38-51

7. Makarov V.L., Bakhtizin A.R., Loginov E.L. Primenenie ekonomiko-matematicheskikh metodov i modeley optimal’nogo planirovaniya v tsifrovoy ekonomike budushchego (TsEMI AN SSSR i TsEMI RAN: prognosticheskaya interpretatsiya i razvitie nauchnogo naslediya nobelevskikh laureatov L.V. Kantorovicha i V.V. Leont’eva) [Application of Economic-mathematical Methods and Optimal Planning Models in the Digital Economy of the Future (CEMI AS USSR and CEMI RAS: Predictive

Interpretation and Development of the Scientific Heritage of Nobel Laureates L.V. Kantorovich and V.V. Leontief)]. Moscow, Tsentral’nyy ekonomiko-matematicheskiy

institut RAN, 2022, 248 p.

8. Makarov V.L., Bakhtizin A.R., Il’in N.I., Sushko E.D. Natsional’naya bezopasnost’ Rossii [National Security of Russia]. Ekonomicheskie strategii, 2020, vol. 22, no 5(171), pp. 6–23, DOI: 10.33917/es-5.171.2020.6-23

9. Makarov V.L., Bakhtizin A.R., Il’in N.I. Modelirovanie i otsenka natsional’noy sily Rossii [Modeling and Assessing the National Strength of Russia]. Ekonomicheskie strategii, 2020, vol. 22, no 2(168), pp. 6–19, DOI: 10.33917/es-2.168.2020.6-19

10. Loginov E.L. Velichina dobavlennoy stoimosti v eksporte-importe kak vazhneyshiy geoekonomicheskiy faktor pobedy Rossii v torgovo-ekonomicheskoy voyne: Vneshnepoliticheskie interesy Rossii: istoriya i sovremennost’: Sb. materialov XII Vserossiyskoy nauchnoy konferentsii [The Amount of Added Value in Exports and Imports as the Most Important Geo-economic Factor of Russia’s Victory in the Trade and Economic War: Foreign Policy Interests of Russia: History and Modernity: Collection of Materials of the XII All-Russian Scientific Conference]. Samara, SAMARAMA, 2024, pp. 122–126.

11. Ageev A.I., Loginov E.L. Strategicheskaya predopredelennost’ spetsial’nykh voennykh operatsiy v mirovoy supersisteme [Strategic Predetermination of Special Military Operations in the World Supersystem]. Ekonomicheskie strategii, 2023, vol. 25, no 4(190), pp. 6–19, DOI: https://doi.org/10.33917/es-4.190.2023.6-19

12. Ageev A.I., Loginov E.L. Spetsial’naya voennaya operatsiya kak strategicheskaya tekhnologiya vybora budushchego Rossii i mira [Special Military Operation as a Strategic Technology for Choosing the Future of Russia and the World]. Ekonomicheskie strategii, 2023, vol. 25, no 5(191), pp. 6–21, DOI: https://doi.org/10.33917/es-5.191.2023.6-21

13. Ponomarenko A.N., Muradov K.Yu. Novaya statistika dvizheniya dobavlennoy stoimosti v mezhdunarodnoy torgovle [New Statistics on Value added Movement in International Trade]. Ekonomicheskiy zhurnal VShE, 2014, no 1.

14. Sidorova E.A. Rossiya v global’nykh tsepochkakh sozdaniya stoimosti [Russia in Global Value Chains]. Mirovaya ekonomika i mezhdunarodnye otnosheniya, 2018, vol. 62, no 9, p. 74.

15. Fontan’e F. Torgovlya dobavlennoy stoimost’yu (TIVA) [The Trade in Value Added (TiVA)]. Statisticheskiy direktorat OESR, available at: https://unece.org/fileadmin/DAM/stats/documents/ece/ces/ge.20/2018/mtg3/1_OECD_long_RU.pdf

16. Varnavskiy V. ES i Rossiya v global’nykh tsepochkakh sozdaniya stoimosti [The EU and Russia in Global Value Chains]. Sovremennaya Evropa, 2019, no 1, pp. 92–103.

17. Varnavskiy V. Mezhdunarodnaya torgovlya v kategoriyakh dobavlennoy stoimosti: voprosy metodologii [International Trade in added Value Categories: Methodology Issues]. Mirovaya ekonomika i mezhdunarodnye otnosheniya, 2018, vol. 62, no 1, pp. 5–15.

18. Schreyer P. The OECD — WTO Trade in Value-Added Database. Presentation at the WTO Trade Data Day Geneva, 2013, 16 January, available at: http://www.wto.

org/english/res_e/statis_e/miwi_e/tradedataday13_e/paul_ schreyer_e.pdf

19. Bakhtizin A.R. Razrabotka programmno-analiticheskogo kompleksa dlya otsenki posledstviy mezhstranovykh torgovykh voyn s prilozheniem dlya funktsionirovaniya v sisteme raspredelennykh situatsionnykh tsentrov Rossii [Development of a Software-analytical Complex for Assessing the Consequences of Intercountry Trade wars with an Application for Functioning in the System of Distributed Situational Centers in Russia]. Otchet o NIR N 21-18-00136, Rossiyskiy nauchnyy fond, 2022.

20. Samofalova O. Evropeytsy pereplatili za gaz kolossal’nuyu summu [Europeans have Overpaid a Colossal Amount for Gas]. Vzglyad, 2023, 7 dekabrya, available at: https://vz.ru/economy/2023/12/7/1243030.html

21. Platezhnyy balans, mezhdunarodnaya investitsionnaya pozitsiya i vneshniy dolg Rossiyskoy Federatsii v 2023 godu [Balance of Payments, International Investment Position and Foreign debt of the Russian Federation in 2023]. Bank Rossii, available at: https://cbr.ru/statistics/macro_itm/svs/p_balance/

22. Mashkova A.L., Bakhtizin A.R. Analiz otraslevoy struktury i dinamiki tovaroobmena mezhdu Rossiey, Kitaem, SShA i Evropeyskim soyuzom v usloviyakh torgovykh ogranicheniy [Analysis of the Sectoral Structure and Dynamics of Commodity Exchange Between Russia, China, the USA and the European Union in the Context of Trade Restrictions]. Ekonomicheskie i sotsial’nye peremeny: fakty, tendentsii, prognoz, 2023, vol. 16, no 3, pp. 54–80.

23. Ageev A.I., Bochkarev O.I., Grabchak E.P., Loginov E.L. Paketnyy otraslevoy zakaz kak effektivnyy instrument upravleniya importozameshcheniem, sozdaniem novykh tekhnologiy i modernizatsiey energetiki [Package Sectoral Order as an Effective Tool for Managing Import Substitution, Development of New Technologies and Energy Modernization]. Ekonomicheskie strategii, 2020, vol. 22, no 3(169), pp. 6–17, DOI: 10.33917/es-3.169.2020.6-17

24. Grabchak E.P., Loginov E.L., Chinaliev V.U., Epishkin I.I. Upravlenie razvitiem slozhnykh nauchno-tekhnicheskikh kompleksov na osnove intellektual’nykh tsifrovykh platform (realizatsiya kompetentsiy Goskomiteta SSSR po nauke i tekhnike v usloviyakh tsifrovoy ekonomiki) [Managing the Development of Sophisticated Scientific-technical Complexes based on Intelligent Digital Platforms (Implementation of the Competencies of the USSR State Committee on Science and Technology in the Context of Digital Economy)]. Moscow, Institut ekonomicheskikh strategiy, 2023, 504 p.

25. Makarov V.L., Bakhtizin A.R., Sushko E.D., Sidorenko M.Yu., Khabriev B.R. Agent-orientirovannye modeli [Agent-based Models]. Moscow, Gosudarstvennyy akademicheskiy universitet gumanitarnykh nauk, 2022, 196 p.

26. Ageev A.I., Grabchak E.P., Loginov E.L., Chinaliev V.U. Tsifrovaya platforma upravleniya nauchno-tekhnologicheskim razvitiem v prostranstve ekonomicheskogo sotrudnichestva [Digital Platform for Managing Scientific and Technological Development within Economic Cooperation Framework]. Ekonomicheskie strategii, 2023, vol. 25, no 1(187), pp. 56–69, DOI: https://doi.org/10.33917/es-1.187.2023.56-69