The Dollar Collapse: Projecting Russia’s Actions in the Face of Global Economic Collapse

DOI: https://doi.org/10.33917/es-4.184.2022.56-69

The world has been scared by the collapse of the dollar many times. So far, fears of a global economic collapse, associated with the fate of the dollar, have been greatly exaggerated. However, there are no significant guarantees that this will not happen under certain conditions. Variants of the Atlantic-planned collapse of the dollar with its replacement by a synthetic financial instrument o r digital currency, somehow similar to bitcoin, are possible. COVID-19 has further revealed this problem. Russia needs to abandon its illusions and to be ready to ensure the economic stability of political regime in a special period as manifestation of the world monetary and economic war of all against all at a certain stage of the catastrophe, while waiting for the main actors to agree on joint actions. At the same time, among our geopolitical competing partners, there are a lot of those who want by all means to solve their economic and other problems at the expense of Russia. Therefore,  macroeconomic measures that Russia will have to take in case of a global dollar collapse are very likely to be more severe than the scenario that the authors formulated in this article.

Источники:

1. Makarov V.L., Bakhtizin A.R., Il’in N.I., Sushko E.D. Natsional’naya bezopasnost’ Rossii [National Security of Russia]. Ekonomicheskie strategii, 2020, no 5, pp. 6–23, available at: DOI: 10.33917/es-5.171.2020.6-23.

2. Ageev A.I., Loginov E.L. Coronavirus superstrategy: mirovaya proektsiya finansovoi modeli catastrophe just-in-time dlya vykhoda iz krizisa na novuyu geoekonomicheskuyu normal’nost’ [Coronavirus Superstrategy: Global Projection of the “Just-in-time Catastrophe’s” Financial Model for Overcoming the Crisis and Entering into a New Geo-Economic Normality]. Ekonomicheskie strategii, 2020, no 4, pp. 6–19, available at: DOI: 10.33917/es-4.170.2020.6-19.

3. Na poroge monetarnoi kul’minatsii [On the Brink of a Monetary Climax]. Livejournal, Spydell, 2021, August, 25, available at: https://spydell.livejournal.com/699002.html.

4. Fiskal’nyi ad [Fiscal Hell]. Livejournal, Spydell, 2021, April, 21, available at: https://spydell.livejournal.com/698446.html.

5. Ageev A.I., Loginov E.L. New Deal – 2008 — “novaya sdacha”. Bludnye ucheniki Franklina Ruzvel’ta [“New Deal” – 2008. Lost Followers of Franklin Roosevelt]. Ekonomicheskie strategii, 2009, no 2, pp. 30–37

6. Ageev A.I., Loginov E.L. Formirovanie novoi modeli valyutno-finansovoi politiki pri upravlenii natsional’nymi zolotovalyutnymi rezervami Rossii [Forming a New Model of Monetary Policy while Managing the National Foreign Exchange Reserves of Russia]. Ekonomicheskie strategii, 2016,

no 3, no 8–15.

7. Ageev A.I., Loginov E.L. Institutsional’nye mekhanizmy snizheniya mul’tifaktornykh riskov dlya valyutno-finansovoi sistemy Rossii i EAES v usloviyakh nelineinoi ekonomicheskoi dinamiki [Institutional Mechanisms for Reducing Multifactor Risks for Monetary-financial System of Russia and the EAEU in the Context of Nonlinear Economic Dynamics]. Monografiya. Moscow, Institut ekonomicheskikh strategii, 2017.

8. Makarov V.L., Vu Ts., Vu Z., Khabriev B.R., Bakhtizin A.R. Mirovye torgovye voiny: stsenarnye raschety posledstvii [World Trade Wars: Scenario Calculations of Consequences]. Vestnik Rossiiskoi akademii nauk, 2020, no 2, pp. 169–179.

9. Ageev A.I., Vorozhikhin V.V., Loginov E.L., Makhutov N.A., Yakovets Yu.V. Problemy formirovaniya kombinirovannoi valyutnoi pozitsii Rossii na mirovykh finansovykh rynkakh v usloviyakh kriticheskoi dinamiki vzaimovliyaniya dollara, evro i yuanya: Vykhod iz sistemnoi krizisnoi tsiklichnosti: problemy i puti ustoichivogo ekonomicheskogo razvitiya: Materialy mezhdunarodnoi nauchno-prakticheskoi konferentsii [Problems of Shaping the Combined Currency Position of Russia in the World Financial Markets in the Context of Critical Dynamics of the Mutual Influence of Dollar, Euro and Yuan: Way Out of the Systemic Crisis Cyclicality: Problems and Ways of Sustainable Economic Development: Proceedings of the International Scientific-practical Conference]. Moscow, IPR RAN, 2018, pp. 12–14.

10. Ageev A.I., Loginov E.L. Gosplan — osnovnye podkhody k planirovaniyu sotsialэno-ekonomicheskogo razvitiya Rossii [Gosplan — Basic Approaches to Planning Socio-Economic Development of Russia]. Ekonomicheskie strategii. 2013. № 8. S. 100–112.

11. Ageev A.I., Grabchak E.P., Loginov E.L., Derkach A.K. Formirovanie v ramkakh EAES tsifrovoi modeli povysheniya prozrachnosti i uspeshnosti obespecheniya kontrolya dvizheniya aktivov mezhdu uchastnikami tovarnykh, finansovykh i imushchestvennykh sdelok [Formation Within the Framework of the EAEU of a Digital Model for Increasing Transparency and Success in Ensuring Control over the Movement of Assets Between Participants in Commodity, Financial and Property Transactions]. Mikroekonomika, 2020, no 2, pp. 5–12.

12. Ageev A.I., Radina V.A. Metodologiya formirovaniya plana na osnove instrumentariya tsifrovoi ekonomiki [Methodology of Plan Development Based on Digital Economy Tools]. Ekonomicheskie strategii, 2019, no 4, pp. 6–17, available at: DOI: https://doi.org/10.33917/es-4.162.2019.6-17.

13. Makarov V.L., Bakhtizin A.R., Sushko E.D., Ageeva A.F. Imitatsiya sotsial’no-ekonomicheskoi sistemy evraziiskogo kontinenta s pomoshch’yu agentorientirovannykh modelei [Simulation of the Socio-economic System of the Eurasian Continent Using Agent-based Models]. Prikladnaya ekonometrika, 2017, no 4, pp. 122–139.

14. Ageev A.I., Bochkarev O.I., Grabchak E.P., Loginov E.L. Paketnyi otraslevoi zakaz kak effektivnyi instrument upravleniya importozameshcheniem, sozdaniem novykh tekhnologii i modernizatsiei energetiki [Package Sectoral Order as an Effective Tool for Managing Import Substitution, Development of New Technologies and Energy Modernization]. Ekonomicheskie strategii, 2020, no 3, pp. 6–17, available at: DOI: https://doi.org/10.33917/es-3.169.2020.6-17.

15. Raikov A.N. Konvergentnaya sborka strategicheskikh sub”ektov s primeneniem situatsionnykh tsentrov razvitiya i sil’nogo iskusstvennogo intellekta: Upravlenie razvitiem krupnomasshtabnykh sistem (MLSD’2019): Materialy XII Mezhdunarodnoi konferentsii [Convergent Assembly of Strategic Actors with the Help of Situational Development Centers and Strong Artificial Intelligence: Management of Large-scale Systems Development (MLSD’2019): Proceedings of the XII International Conference]. Moscow, Mezhdunarodnyi nauchno-issledovatel’skii institut problem upravleniya RAN, 2019, pp. 255–261.

16. Ageev A.I., Grigor’ev V.V., Loginov E.L., Momotova A.K. Povyshenie prozrachnosti beznalichnykh finansovykh raschetov na osnove elektronnoi tsifrovoi identifikatsii kazhdoi denezhnoi edinitsy s vyyavleniem benefitsiarov operatsii po ob”ektnym, resursnym i vremennym parametram: Novye tekhnologicheskie vyzovy: problemy tsifrovoi transformatsii sistem upravleniya: Materialy mezhdunarodnoi konferentsii [Increasing the Transparency of Non-cash Financial Settlements Based on Electronic Digital Identification of Each Currency Unit with Identifying Beneficiaries of Operations by Object, Resource and Time Parameters: New Technological Challenges: Digital Transformation Problems of Control Systems: International Conference Proceedings]. Moscow, MNIIPU, 2019, pp. 6–9.

17. Mityaev D.A., Ageev A.I., Ershov M.V., Arkhipova V.V., Ven’ V., Li Ch., Tszintszin Ts., Tintin Ch. Raschety v natsional’nykh valyutakh mezhdu Kitaem i Rossiei v postpandemiinuyu epokhu: sovremennoe sostoyanie, vyzovy i perspektivy. Ch. II [Local Currency Settlement Between China and Russia in the Post-Covid-19 Era: Current State, Challenges and Solutions. Part II]. Ekonomicheskie strategii, 2021, no 1, pp. 6–13, available at: DOI: https://doi.org/10.33917/es-1.175.2021.6-13.

18. Makarov V.L., Bakhtizin A.R., Beklaryan G.L., Akopov A.S. Razrabotka programmnoi platformy dlya krupnomasshtabnogo agent-orientirovannogo modelirovaniya slozhnykh sotsial’nykh system [Development of a Software Platform for Large-scale Agent-based Modeling of Complex Social Systems]. Programmnaya inzheneriya, 2019, no 4, pp. 167–177.

19. Ageev A.I., Loginov E.L., Romanova Yu.A., Momotova A.K. Tsifrovoi kontsept vyyavleniya skrytykh tsentrov upravleniya v ramkakh slozhnostrukturirovannykh mul’tivalyutnykh finansovykh sistem s bol’shim kolichestvom latentnykh svyazei mezhdu elementami [Digital Concept of Revealing Hidden Control Centers Within Complex Multi-currency Financial Systems with a Large Number of Latent Links Between Elements]. Mikroekonomika, 2020, no 4, pp. 5–11.

20. Ageev A.I., Vorozhikhin V.V., Loginov E.L., Pobyvaev S.A. Strategicheskoe konfigurirovanie organizatsii vzaimodeistviya gosudarstvennykh vedomstv i kommercheskikh bankov Rossii s kooperirovannoi strukturoi upravlencheskikh i spetsial’nykh mer dlya zashchity rossiiskikh valyutno-finansovykh resursov:

Finansovye mekhanizmy atsiklicheskogo regulirovaniya strukturnykh disproportsii v ekonomike Rossii i drugikh stran SNG: Materialy mezhdunarodnoi nauchno-prakticheskoi konferentsii [Strategic Configuration of Organizing Interaction Between Government Departments and Commercial Banks of Russia with a Networked Structure of Managerial and Special Measures to Protect Russian Monetary and Financial Resources: Financial Mechanisms of Acyclic Regulation of Structural Imbalances in the Economy of Russia and other CIS Countries: Proceedings of International Scientific-practical Conference]. Moscow, IPR RAN, 2017, pp. 25–29.

21. Ageev A.I., Loginov E.L., Efremov D.N. Gosudarstvennyi komitet po nauchno-tekhnicheskoi politike: tsentr setevoi kontsentratsii nauchno-tekhnicheskikh svyazei v klyuchevykh oblastyakh znaniya dlya integrirovannogo upravleniya v sfere nauki i tekhniki [The State Committee for Scientific-Technical Policy: Center of Network Concentration of Scientific-Technical Ties in Key Knowledge Areas for Integrated Management in the Science and Engineering Field]. Ekonomicheskie strategii, 2014, no 8, pp. 12–21.

22. Loginov E.L., Grabchak E.P. Aktualizatsiya elementov tsentralizovannogo gosudarstvennogo upravleniya v rynochnoi srede TEK Rossii v usloviyakh mnogofaktornoi nestabil’nosti s rasshirennoi komponentoi neopredelennosti [Updating the Elements of Centralized Public Administration in the Market Environment of the Russian Fuel and Energy Complex in the Context of Multifactor Instability with an Extended Uncertainty Component]. Iskusstvennye obshchestva, 2020, no 2, p. 7.

23. Raikov A.N., Loginov E.L. Intellektual’naya transformatsiya sistem upravleniya v energo-infrastrukturnom komplekse kak osnova formirovaniya edinogo energeticheskogo prostranstva EAES [Intellectual Transformation of Control Systems in the Energy-infrastructural Complex as the Basis for Forming a Single EAEU Energy Space]. Innovatika i ekspertiza: nauchnye trudy, 2015, no 2, pp. 269–280.

24. Ageev A.I., Loginov E.L. Snizhenie mirovykh tsen na neft’: vyderzhit li Rossiya? [The World Oil Prices Decline: Will Russia Sustain Macro-Organized Instability Translated From Abroad?]. Ekonomicheskie strategii, 2014, no 10, pp. 32–45.

25. Loginov E.L. Perekhod k konsolidirovannoi ekonomike: strategicheskaya transformatsiya TEK Rossii v usloviyakh kriticheskoi nestabil’nosti mirovoi ekonomiki [Transition to Consolidated Economy: Strategic Transformation of the Russian Fuel-energy Complex in the Context of the World Economy’s Critical Instability]. Ekonomika: teoriya i praktika, 2014, no 4, pp. 3–7.

26. Makarov V.L., Bakhtizin A.R. Primenenie agent-orientirovannykh modelei v kachestve instrumenta podderzhki realizatsii i monitoringa strategii razlichnogo urovnya: Teoriya i praktika strategirovaniya: Tezisy dokladov uchastnikov III Mezhdunarodnoi nauchno-prakticheskoi konferentsii. Ser. “Ekonomicheskaya i finansovaya strategiya” [Application of Agent-based Models as a Tool to Support Implementation and Monitoring of Strategies at Various Levels: Theory and Practice of Strategizing: Abstracts Proceedings of Participants of the III International Scientific-practical Conference “Economic and Financial Strategy”]. Moskovskii gosudarstvennyi universitet imeni M.V. Lomonosova, 2020, pp. 19–21.

27. Makarov V.L., Bakhtizin A.R., Sushko E.D. Tekhnologiya podderzhki agent-orientirovannogo modelirovaniya dlya superkomp’yuterov [Technology to Support Agent-based Simulation for Supercomputers]. Natsional’nye interesy: prioritety i bezopasnost’, 2016, no 1, pp. 4–16.

28. Makarov V.L., Bakhtizin A.R., Il’in N.I. Modelirovanie i otsenka natsional’noi sily Rossii [Modeling and Assessing the National Strength of Russia]. Ekonomicheskie strategii, 2020, no 2, pp. 6–19, available at: DOI: https://doi.org/10.33917/es-2.168.2020.6-19.

29. Grabchak E.P. Tsifrovaya transformatsiya elektroenergetiki [Digital Transformation of the Power Industry]. Moscow, Knorus, 2018, 340 p.

30. Makarov V.L., Bakhtizin A.R., Loginov E.L. Primenenie ekonomiko-matematicheskikh metodov i modelei optimal’nogo planirovaniya v tsifrovoi ekonomike budushchego (TsEMI AN SSSR i TsEMI RAN: prognosticheskaya interpretatsiya i razvitie nauchnogo naslediya nobelevskikh laureatov L.V. Kantorovicha i V.V. Leont’eva) [Application of Economic and Mathematical Methods and Models of Optimal Planning in the Digital Economy of the Future]. Moscow, TsEMI RAN, 2022, 460 p.