Nuclear Attack: Strategic Structuring of a Civil Organizational-managerial Problem
DOI: 10.33917/es-1.199.2025.6-23
The article examines a possible nuclear attack as a civil problem of managing super-large organizational systems. The key tool for structuring the problem is agent-based modeling. Calculations show that even in case of a nuclear attack, the Russian Federation ensures its infrastructural and institutional stability, maintaining all control levers in the loop of state stability and life support for the population while solving the problems of necessary support for defence and security functionality. In this case, a difficult question arises: at what cost?
References:
1. Ageev A.I. Rol’ sanktsiy, konfliktov i spetsoperatsiy: razmyshleniya o budushchem. Chast’ 2 [The Role of Sanctions, Conflicts and Special Operations: Reflections on the Future. Part 2]. Nauchnyy vestnik oboronno-promyshlennogo kompleksa Rossii, 2024, no 1, pp. 33–42.
2. Bakhtizin A.R., Makarov V.L., Loginov E.L., et al. Gibridnye voyny v makroekonomicheskoy supersisteme XXI veka [Hybrid Wars in the Macroeconomic Supersystem of the XXI Century]. Ekonomicheskie strategii, 2023, vol. 25, no 2(188), pp. 6–23, DOI: ht tps://doi.org/10.33917/es-2.188.2023.6–23.
3. Ageev A.I., Loginov E.L. Novaya bol’shaya voyna: khroniki khorosho zabytogo budushchego [New Large-scale War: Chronicles of Well Forgotten Future]. Ekonomicheskie strategii, 2014, vol. 16, no 6–7(122–123), pp. 16–33.
4. Makarov V.L., Bakhtizin A.R., Sushko E.D. Natsional’naya strategicheskaya sila stran, mezhdunarodnaya torgovlya i ekonomicheskaya uspeshnost’ stran v nestabil’nom mire [National Strategic Power of Countries, International Trade and Economic Success of Countries in an Unstable World]. Strategirovanie: teoriya i praktika, 2023, vol. 3, no 3(9), pp. 277–297.
5. Pudovkin E. “Ogranichennoy yadernoy voyny ne sushchestvuet”. Eksperty — o tom, naskol’ko real’na ee opasnost’ [“Limited Nuclear War Doesn’t Exist.” Experts on How Real Its Danger Is]. RTVI, 2022, 31 maya, available at: https://rtvi.com/stories/ogranichennoj-yadernoj-vojny-ne-sushhestvuet-eksperty-otom-naskolko-realna-ee-opasnost/
6. Surge: 2023 Global nuclear weapons spending. The International Campaign to Abolish Nuclear Weapons (ICAN).
7. Complicit: 2020 Global Nuclear Weapons Spending. The International Campaign to Abolish Nuclear Weapons (ICAN).
8. 90 sekund do polunochi. Chto nado znat’ o yadernoy voyne i ee posledstviyakh. Ob”yasnyaem, kak mogut vyglyadet’ yadernaya voyna i ee posledstviya, a takzhe kak i gde ot nee mozhno spastis’ [90 Seconds to Midnight. What you need to Know about Nuclear War and its Consequences. We Explain what Nuclear War and its Consequences Might Look like, as Well as How and Where you can Escape from it]. Dzen, 2024, 23 noyabrya, available at: https://dzen.ru/a/Z0GbbBQHIkbcs5pd
9. Analitiki otsenili, skol’ko strany tratyat na yadernoe oruzhie v minutu [Analysts have Estimated how much the Countries Spend on Nuclear Weapons per Minute]. RBK, 2022, 15 iyunya, available at: https://www.rbc.ru/politics/15/06/2022/62a984999a79471c65ce1b2a
10. Ageev A.I., Loginov E.L. Kombinatorika vtorogo Trampa: pokushenie. Chast’ I. Geostrategiya [Second Trump Combinatorics: Assassination Attempt. Part I. Geostrategy]. Ekonomicheskie strategii, 2024, vol. 26, no 4(196), pp. 18–25, DOI: ht tps://doi.org/10.33917/es-4.196.2024.18-25
11. Ageev A.I., Loginov E.L. Mirovoe soobshchestvo v usloviyakh sverkhkriticheskoy bifurkatsii: Upravlenie slozhnymi organizatsionnymi i tekhnicheskimi sistemami v usloviyakh sverkhkriticheskikh situatsiy: Materialy mezhdunarodnoy nauchno-prakticheskoy konferentsii. Moskva, 21–22 aprelya 2022 g. [The World Community in the Conditions of Supercritical Bifurcation: Management of Complex Organizational and Technical Systems in Conditions of Supercritical Situations: Proceedings of the International Scientific and Practical Conference. Moscow, April 21–22, 2022]. Moscow, Institut ekonomicheskikh strategiy,
2022, pp. 9–12.
12. Abrosimov N.V., Ageev A.I., Aksyutin O.E., et al. Bezopasnost’ Rossii. Pravovye, sotsial’no-ekonomicheskie i nauchno-tekhnicheskie aspekty. Issledovaniya i razrabotki problem natsional’noy bezopasnosti [Security of Russia. Legal, Socio-economic and Scientific-technical Aspects. Research and
Development of National Security Issues]. Moscow, Znanie, 2022, 524 p.
13. Dyubust O. Modeli iskusstvennogo intellekta vybrali nasilie i pererosli v yadernye udary v imitiruemykh voennykh igrakh [Artificial Intelligence Models Chose Violence and Escalated to Nuclear Strikes in Simulated War Games]. Euronews, 2024, 22 fevralya, available at: https://www.euronews.com/
next/2024/02/22/ai-models-chose-violence-and-escalated-to-nuclear-strikes-in-simulated-wargames
14. PLAN-A. Scince & Global Security, available at: https://sgs.princeton.edu/the-lab/plan-a
15. NukeMap. Nuclear Secrecy, available at: https://nuclearsecrecy.com/nukemap/
16. Grabchak E.P., Loginov E.L. Ugrozy rabote informatsionno-upravlyayushchikh sistem v energetike Rossii v usloviyakh transformatsii tekhnologiy i sredstv vozdushno-kosmicheskogo napadeniya razvitykh gosudarstv: BI-tekhnologii i korporativnye informatsionnye sistemy v optimizatsii biznes-protsessov:
Materialy VIII Mezhdunarodnoy nauchno-prakticheskoy konferentsii. Ekaterinburg, 4 dekabrya 2020 g. [Threats to the Operation of Information and Management Systems in the Energy Sector of Russia in the Context of the Transformation of Technologies and Means of Aerospace Attack in Developed Countries: BI Technologies and Corporate Information Systems in Optimizing Business Processes: Proceedings of the VIII International Scientific and Practical Conference.
Yekaterinburg, December 4, 2020]. Ekaterinburg, UGEU, 2021, pp. 64–66.
17. Makarov V.L., Ageev A.I., Bakhtizin A.R., Grabchak E.P., Loginov E.L. Modelirovanie posledstviy yadernogo udara [Modeling the Сonsequences of a Nuclear Strike]. Ekonomicheskie strategii, 2022, vol. 24, no 4(184), pp. 6–16, DOI: ht tps://doi.org/10.33917/es-4.184.2022.6-16
18. Loginov E.L. Razvitie ekonomiki v Rossii pod vozdeystviem sanktsiy [Economic Development in Russia under the Impact of Sanctions]. Moscow, Rusayns, 2024, 198 p.
19. Ageev A.I., Grabchak E.P., Loginov E.L. Rossiya v sverkhkriticheskoy situatsii: upravlenie vosstanovleniem funktsiy zhizneobespecheniya dlya preodoleniya posledstviy prirodnoy makrokatastrofy [Russia in Supercritical Situation: Managing Restoration of Life-Support Functions to Overcome the Consequences of a Natural Macro Catastrophe]. Ekonomicheskie strategii, 2021, vol. 23, no 5(179), pp. 28–35, DOI: 10.33917/es-5.179.2021.28-35
20. Loginov E.L. Tsifrovye tekhnologii politicheskoy bor’by: neyrosetevye imperativy informatsionnogo protivodeystviya popytkam perekhvata upravleniya v sotsial’no-politicheskoy srede [Digital Technologies of Political Struggle: Neural Network Imperatives of Information Counteraction to Attempts of Intercepting Control in the Socio-political Environment]. Moscow, Rusayns, 2024, 234 p.
21. Makarov V.L., Bakhtizin A.R., Loginov E.L. Primenenie ekonomiko-matematicheskikh metodov i modeley optimal’nogo planirovaniya v tsifrovoy ekonomike budushchego (TsEMI AN SSSR i TsEMI RAN: prognosticheskaya interpretatsiya i razvitie nauchnogo naslediya nobelevskikh laureatov L.V. Kantorovicha i V.V. Leont’eva) [Application of Economic-mathematical Methods and Optimal Planning Models in the Digital Economy of the Future (CEMI USSR Academy of Sciences and CEMI RAS: Predictive Interpretation and Development of the Scientific Heritage of the Nobel Laureates L.V. Kantorovich and V.V. Leontiev)]. Moscow, Tsentral’nyy ekonomiko-matematicheskiy institut RAN, 2022, 248 p.
22. Wood Kevin. Analyzing the Vulnerability of Critical Infrastructure to Attack and Planning Defenses. ResearchGate, available at https://www.researchgate.net/publication/241519735_Analyzing_the_Vulnerability_of_Critical_Infrastructure_to_Attack_and_Planning_Defenses
23. Sabatowski P.A. Security Vulnerability Trends Related to Electric Poer Supplied at Military Installations. Theses and Dissertations, 2010, no. 2122.
24. Losik I.V., Sidorenko S.V., Sidorenko M.Yu., Bakhtizin A.R. Informatsionnye voyny sovremennosti i modelirovanie rasprostraneniya novostey [Modern Information Wars and Modeling of News Dissemination]. Ekonomika i matematicheskie metody, 2024, vol. 60, no 2, pp. 14–26.
25. Ageev A.I., Grabchak E.P., Loginov E.L. Ispol’zovanie superkomp’yuternykh tekhnologiy dlya upravleniya rabotoy sverkhbol’shikh organizatsionnykh sistem pri realizatsii slozhnykh spetsial’nykh proektov (operatsiy) [Using Supercomputer Technologies to Manage the Operation of Ultra-large Organizational Systems when Implementing Complex Special Projects (Operations)]. Mikroekonomika, 2024, no 1, pp. 5–10.
26. Loginov E.L. Obespechenie bezopasnosti i ustoychivosti raboty slozhnykh organizatsionnykh sistem v usloviyakh prirodnykh i tekhnogennykh elektromagnitnykh vozdeystviy [Ensuring Safety and Sustainability of Complex Organizational Systems under Conditions of Natural and Man-made
Electromagnetic Interference]. Moscow, Nauchnaya biblioteka, 2024, 364 p.
27. Grabchak E.P. Loginov E.L. Problemy predotvrashcheniya katastrof pri narushenii resursoobespecheniya v sistemakh kriticheskoy infrastruktury v usloviyakh s nizkoy dostovernost’yu informatsii i neopredelennost’yu razvitiya situatsii [Problems of Preventing Disasters in Case of Resource Supply Disruption in Critical Infrastructure Systems in Conditions of Low Information Reliability and Uncertainty of the Situation Development]. Fundamental’nye osnovy mekhaniki, 2023, no 11, pp. 73–75.
28. Ivanov V.V., Loginov E.L. Formirovanie zashchishchennoy tsifrovoy infrastruktury situatsionnykh tsentrov v energetike Rossii, adaptirovannykh k rabote v usloviyakh chrezvychaynykh situatsiy i v osobyy period [Formation of a Secure Digital Infrastructure of Situational Centers in the Russian Energy Sector, Adapted to Work in Emergency Situations and During Special Periods]. Problemy bezopasnosti i chrezvychaynykh situatsiy, 2021, no 3, pp. 134–139.
29. Loginov E.L. Perekhvat upravleniya slozhnymi organizatsionnymi sistemami v usloviyakh razmyvaniya granits mezhdu fizicheskimi, kognitivnymi i tsifrovymi prostranstvami deyatel’nosti i sredami upravleniya [Taking over Control of Complex Organizational Systems in the Context of Blurring Boundaries between Physical, Cognitive and Digital Spaces of Activity and Management Environments]. Ekonomika: teoriya i praktika, 2024, no 1(73), pp. 3–10.
30. Grabchak E.P., Loginov E.L. Novye vozmozhnosti atak elektromagnitnymi impul’sami na ob”ekty kriticheskoy infrastruktury: Transformatsiya sovremennoy voyny: Materialy III Vserossiyskoy nauchnoy konferentsii. Omsk, 16 fevralya 2024 g. [New Possibilities of Electromagnetic Pulse Attacks on
Critical Infrastructure Objects: Transformation of Modern Warfare: Proceedings of the III All-Russian Scientific Conference. Omsk, February 16, 2024]. Omsk, Voennaya akademiya material’no-tekhnicheskogo obespecheniya imeni generala armii A.V. Khruleva, 2024, pp. 108–112.
31. Grigor’ev V.V., Loginov E.L. Strategicheskoe operirovanie: podderzhanie ekonomicheskoy osnovy stabil’nosti politicheskogo rezhima Rossiyskoy Federatsii v usloviyakh mezhdunarodnykh sanktsiy: Problemy povysheniya effektivnosti nauchnoy raboty v oboronno-promyshlennom komplekse Rossii:
Materialy VII Vserossiyskoy nauchno-prakticheskoy konferentsii. Znamensk, 11–12 aprelya 2024 g. [Strategic Operations: Maintaining the Economic Basis for the Stability of the Political Regime of the Russian Federation in the Context of International Sanctions: Problems of Increasing the Ef ficiency of Scientifi Work in the Defense Industrial Complex of Russia: Proceedings of the VII All-Russian Scientific and Practical Conference. Znamensk, April 11–12, 2024.]. Astrakhan’, Astrakhanskiy gosudarstvennyy universitet im. V.N. Tatishcheva, 2024, pp. 204, 205.
32. Ageev A.I., Bochkarev O.I., Grabchak E.P., Loginov E.L. Setetsentricheskaya sistema povyshennoy zhivuchesti upravleniya energetikoy Rossii v slozhnoprognoziruemykh kriticheskikh usloviyakh [Net-Centric System of Elevated Survivability of Energy Management in Russia Under Difficult-to-predict Critical Conditions]. Ekonomicheskie strategii, 2021, vol. 23, no 3(177), pp. 6–17, DOI: ht tps://doi.org/10.33917/es-3.177.2021.6-17
33. Voropay N.I. Nadezhnost’ sistem elektrosnabzheniya [Reliability of Power Supply Systems]. 2-e izd., pererab. i dop. Novosibirsk, Nauka, 2015, 207 p.
34. Grabchak E.P. Tsifrovaya transformatsiya elektroenergetiki [Digital Transformation of the Electric Power Industry]. Moscow, KnoRus, 2018, 340 p.
35. Makarov V.L., Ageev A.I., Bakhtizin A.R., et al. Matritsa finansovykh potokov — instrument realizatsii ekonomicheskoy politiki strany [Financial Flows Matrix — a Tool for Implementing the Country’s Economic Policy]. Ekonomicheskie strategii, 2021, vol. 23, no 4(178), pp. 22–35, DOI: https://doi.org/10.33917/es-4.178.2021.22-35
36. Makarov V.L., Bakhtizin A.R., Bodrunov S.D. K voprosu ob osnovnykh napravleniyakh strategii sotsial’no-ekonomicheskogo razvitiya Rossii: obosnovanie predlozheniy i otsenka posledstviy [On the Issue of the Main Directions of the Strategy for Socio-economic Development of Russia: Substantiation of Proposals
and Assessment of Consequences]. Chto delat’? 2023, no 4.
37. Makarov V.L., Popov E.V. Setevye ekonomicheskie vzaimodeystviya [Networked Economic Interactions]. 2-e izd., pererab. i dop. Moscow, Yurayt, 2020.
38. Makarov V.L., Bakhtizin A.R., Sushko E.D. Raspredelennye situatsionnye tsentry kak instrument aprobatsii upravlencheskikh resheniy: Sotsiofizika i sotsioinzheneriya — 2018: Trudy Vtoroy Vserossiyskoy mezhdistsiplinarnoy konferentsii. Moskva, 23–25 maya 2018 g. [Distributed Situational Centers as aTool for Testing Management Decisions: Sociophysics and Social Engineering — 2018: Proceedings of the Second All-Russian Interdisciplinary Conference. Moscow, May 23-25, 2018.]. Moscow, Institut problem upravleniya im. V.A. Trapeznikova RAN, 2018, pp. 19, 20.
39. Loginov E.L., Grabchak E.P., Epishkin I.I., Derkach A.K. Ispol’zovanie kvantovykh vychisleniy s formirovaniem edinogo raschetnogo prostranstva sverkhbol’shikh razmernostey v sfere postavok toplivno-energeticheskikh resursov v usloviyakh situatsiy osobogo perioda [Application of Quantum Computing
with Creation of a Single Computational Space of Super-large Dimensions in the Field of Fuel and Energy Resources Supplies in the Context of Special Period Situations]. Iskusstvennye obshchestva, 2024, vol. 19, no 2.
40. Makarov V.L., Bakhtizin A.R., Beklaryan G.L. Razrabotka tsifrovykh dvoynikov dlya proizvodstvennykh predpriyatiy [Development of Digital Twins for Manufacturing Enterprises]. Biznes-informatika, 2019, vol. 13, no 4, pp. 7–16.
41. Grabchak E.P., Loginov E.L. Podderzhanie raboty integrirovannogo kompleksa grazhdanskikh i spetsial’nykh struktur na osnove tsifrovoy sinkhronizatsii funktsiy monitoringa, svyazi, analitiki i upravleniya: Problemy upravleniya bezopasnost’yu slozhnykh sistem: Materialy XXXI Mezhdunarodnoy konferentsii. Moskva, 13 dekabrya 2023 g. [Maintaining the Operation of an Integrated Complex of Civil and Special Structures Based on Digital Synchronization of
Monitoring, Communication, Analytics, and Control Functions: Problems of Complex Systems Security Management: Proceedings of the XXXI International Conference. Moscow, December 13, 2023]. Moscow, Institut problem upravleniya im. V.A. Trapeznikova RAN, 2023, pp. 499–504.
42. Ageev A.I., Grabchak E.P., Loginov E.L. Ispol’zovanie iskusstvennogo intellekta pri realizatsii komandovaniya voyskami i upravleniya grazhdanskimi ob”ektami kak edinym gibridnym polem boya: Neyrokomp’yutery i ikh primenenie: Tezisy dokladov XX Vserossiyskoy nauchnoy konferentsii [Use of Artificial Intelligence in the Implementation of Troops Command and Control of Civilian Objects as a Single Hybrid Battlefield: Neurocomputers and their Application:
Abstracts of the XX All-Russian Scientific Conference]. Moscow, MGPPU, 2022, pp. 31–33.
43. Loginov E.L., Shkuta A.A. Formirovanie dubliruyushchego kontura i tsentrov upravleniya Soyuznogo gosudarstva Rossii i Belorussii dlya raboty v usloviyakh chrezvychaynoy situatsii, prirodnoy ili tekhnogennoy katastrofy: Ekonomika, menedzhment, servis: sovremennye problemy i perspektivy: Materialy VI Vserossiyskoy nauchno-prakticheskoy konferentsii [Formation of a Backup Circuit and Control Centers of the Union State of Russia and Belarus for Operating
in Emergency Situations, Natural or Man-made Disasters: Economy, Management, Service: Modern Problems and Prospects: Proceedings of the VI All-Russian
Scientific and Practical Conference]. Omsk, Omskiy gosudarstvennyy tekhnicheskiy universitet, 2024, pp. 225–227.
44. Grabchak E.P., Loginov E.L. Tsifrovaya energetika: povyshenie nadezhnosti upravleniya elektro- i teploenergeticheskimi sistemami na osnove vnedreniya
tsifrovykh tekhnologiy [Digital Energy: Increasing Control Reliability of Electric and Thermal Power Systems through Introduction of Digital Technologies].
Moscow, INES, 2020, 222 p.
45. Makarov V.L., Bakhtizin A.R., Sushko E.D. Modelirovanie povedeniya agenta-predpriyatiya kak chasti iskusstvennogo obshchestva v seti mezhdunarodnoy torgovli [Modeling Behavior of an Agent-enterprise as Part of an Artificial Society in an International Trade Network]. Iskusstvennye obshchestva, 2023, vol. 18, no 4.
46. Makarov V.L. Tsifrovye tekhnologii vozrozhdayut planirovanie [Digital Technologies Revive Planning]. Vestnik TsEMI, 2022, vol. 5, no 2.
47. Ageev A.I., Loginov E.L. Strategicheskaya predopredelennost’ spetsial’nykh voennykh operatsiy v mirovoy supersisteme [Strategic Predetermination of Special
Military Operations in the World Supersystem]. Ekonomicheskie strategii, 2023, vol. 25, no 4(190), pp. 6–19, DOI: https://doi.org/10.33917/es-4.190.2023.6-19
48. Ageev A.I., Bakhtizin A.R., Makarov V.L., Loginov E.L., Khabriev B.R. Ekonomicheskiy fundament pobedy: strategicheskiy prognoz ustoychivosti
ekonomiki Rossii v usloviyakh sanktsionnykh atak [Economic Foundation of Victory: a Strategic Forecast for the Russian Economy Stability in the Face of Sanctions]. Ekonomicheskie strategii, 2023, vol. 25, no 3(189), pp. 6–15, DOI: ht tps://doi.org/10.33917/es-3.189.2023.6-15