In Search of a New Paradigm of Socio-Economic Development. Part II
DOI: 10.33917/es-6.198.2024.26-35
In the first part of this article, the authors proposed to consider productivism as a new paradigm of socio-economic development. It, advocating for supply-side economic measures, not feeling piet y towards international markets and calling for protectionism, is intended to replace the intellectually bankrupt paradigm of neoliberalism that dominated the world at the turn of the 20th and 21st centuries. Such “paradigm shif t” is necessary to ensure theoretically a “technological leap” — the key to global economic leadership in the 21st century. Previously, the authors have developed factors for the national economy transition to a new technological level. In this ar ticle, they will receive a quantitative assessment, which will allow to determine the ordinal probability of technological transition for the world’s leading countries. The proposed methodological approach will make it possible to position the Russian economy in these processes, as well as to identif y barriers hindering its economic development, and outline prospects for overcoming these barriers.
References:
[1] — [26] no 5/2024, pp. 20–21.
27. Belousov D.R., Sal’nikov V.A., et al. Ekonomika-2040: ot novykh usloviy — k novym deystviyam: kratkaya versiya doklada (kontseptual’naya chast’): Proekt Gorizont-2040 [Economy-2040: from New Conditions to New Actions: a Short Version of the Report (Conceptual Part): Project Horizon-2040]. TsMAKP, 2023, 28 dekabrya, available at: http://www.forecast.ru/_ARCHIVE/Presentations/DBelousov/2023_12_ecoshortfin.pdf
28. World Economic Forum. The Global Risks Report’2024. World Economic Forum, available at: https://www.weforum.org/publications/global-risks-report-2024/
29. Gross domestic product 2022, PPP. World Development Indicators database. World Bank, 1 July 2023, available at: https://databankfiles.worldbank.org/public/ddpext_download/GDP_PPP.pdf
30. Kobyakov A.B., Khazin M.L. Zakat imperii dollara i konets “Pax Americana” [The Decline of the Dollar Empire and the End of Pax Americana]. Moscow, Veche, 2003.
31. Irkhin A.A. Mir gotov razvalit’sya na neskol’ko makroregionov [The World is Ready to Fall Apart into Several Macro-regions]. Sluzhba novostey ForPost, 2020, 9 aprelya, available at: https://sevastopol.su/news/mir-gotov-razvalitsya-na-neskolko-makroregionov
32. Teplyakov A.Yu., Tolkachev S.A. Rossiyskaya Federatsiya v geoekonomicheskoy dueli XXI veka [Russian Federation in the Geo-Economic Duel of the 21st Century]. Ekonomicheskie strategii, 2023, no 6, pp. 6–15, DOI: https://doi.org/10.33917/es-6.192.2023.6-15
33. The Leisure Gains from International Trade. IMF, 2024, available at: https://www.imf.org/en/Publications/WP/Issues/2024/01/19/The-Leisure-Gains-from-International-Trade-543871
34. Protsentnaya sistema. Trading Economics, available at: https://ru.tradingeconomics.com/country-list/interest-rate
35. Main Economic Indicators. Vol. 2023, iss. 12, available at: https://www.oecd-ilibrary.org/economics/main-economic-indicators/volume-2023/issue-12_ded67b87-en
36. Russia 10-Year Government Bond Yield. Trading Economics, available at: https://tradingeconomics.com/russia/government-bond-yield
37. Download World Economic Outlook database: April 2023. International Monetary Fund, available at: https://www.imf.org
38. Other policy relevant indicators: Distribution of tertiary graduates by field of study. UNESCO. Institute for Statistics, available at: http://data.uis.unesco.org/index.aspx?queryid=3830#
39. Rossiya i strany mira. 2023: Stat. sb. [Russia and the Countries of the World. 2023: Stat. collection]. Moscow, Rosstat, 2023.
40. Sovremennaya sistema vysshego inzhenernogo obrazovaniya v Kitae i ee problem [The Modern System of Higher Engineering Education in China and Its Problems]. Vestnik Moskovskogo universiteta. Seriya: Pedagogicheskoe obrazovanie, 2012, no 2.
41. Varlamova T.A., Gokhberg L.M., Ozerova O.K., et al. Obrazovanie v tsifrakh: 2023: Kratkiy stat. sb. [Education in Figures: 2023: Brief Statistics Collection]. NIU “Vysshaya shkola ekonomik. Moscow, ISIEZ VShE, 2023.
42. Mirovaya migratsiya v tsifrakh: Sovmestnyy doklad Departamenta po ekonomicheskim i sotsial’nym voprosam OON i OESR dlya Dialoga vysokogo urovnya po migratsii i razvitiyu OON, 3–4 oktyabrya 2013 g. [World Migration in Numbers: Joint UNDESA/OECD Report to the UN High-Level Dialogue on Migration and Development, 3–4 October 2013], available at: https://www.oecd.org/els/mig/RUSSIAN.pdf
43. Nuclear Share of Electricity Generation in 2022. International Atomic Energy Agency, available at: https://pris.iaea.org/PRIS/WorldStatistics/NuclearShareofElectricityGeneration.aspx
44. Biyatov E. Indoneziya namerena pristupit’ k proektu plavuchikh AES s Rossiey [Indonesia to Launch Floating Nuclear Power Plant Project with Russia]. MIA “Rossiya segodnya”, available at: https://ria.ru/20230601/aes-1875523489.html
45. OPEC launches its 2020 Annual Statistical Bulletin. Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries, available at: https://www.opec.org/opec_web/en/press_room/6045.htm
46. Statistical Review of World Energy. 2020. BP. 69th edition, available at: https://www.bp.com/content/dam/bp/business-sites/en/global/corporate/pdfs/energy-economics/statistical-review/bp-stats-review-2020-full-report.pdf
47. Statistical Review of World Energy 2023. Energy Institute. 2023. 72-nd edition, available at: https://www.energyinst.org/__data/assets/pdf_file/0004/1055542/EI_Stat_Review_PDF_single_3.pdf
48. Roadways compares the total length of the road network and includes the length of the paved and unpaved portions. The World Factbook. CIA, available at: https://web.archive.org/web/20170702023929/https://www.cia.gov/library/publications/the-world-factbook/rankorder/2085rank.html
49. Maritime profile: Russian Federation. UNCTAD, available at: https://unctadstat.unctad.org/CountryProfile/MaritimeProfile/en-GB/643/index.html
50. Waterways compares the total length of navigable rivers, canals, and other inland bodies of water. The World Factbook. CIA, available at: https://www.cia.gov/library/publications/the-world-factbook/rankorder/2093rank.html
51. Gross domestic product 2022, PPP. World Development Indicators database. World Bank, 1 July 2023, available at: https://databankfiles.worldbank.org/public/ddpext_download/GDP_PPP.pdf
52. General profile: Russian Federation. UNCTAD, available at: https://unctadstat.unctad.org/CountryProfile/GeneralProfile/en-GB/643/index.html