Forecasting the performance of credit institutions based on simulation modeling

DOI: 10.33917/mic-3.98.2021.5-14

The purpose of this work is to prepare proposals for the use of simulation methods for solving the problems of planning and forecasting the financial results of credit institutions. The article addresses the following issues: 1) an analysis of the activities of credit institutions of the Russian Federation was carried out, based on the results of which “pain points” were identified – unresolved problems, including the management of overdue loan debt; 2) the feasibility of using simulation modeling methods for the development of scenarios for the development of commercial banks was justified; 3) an approach based on simulation modeling was proposed to determine the impact of the amount of overdue debt on the indicators and economic standards of activity.

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