Oil prices forecast for the period from March 2014 to December 2015, prepared by the Institute of Energy Strategy in collaboration with the Institute for Economic Strategies based on neural model taking into account the experience of the world oil market functioning during the last decades.

The article considers classification of conflict of a new type, their relationship with society and globalization processes. It demonstrates interrelation of postmodern culture with protest movements, the role of communication technologies and the emergence of a new field of confrontation — cyberspace. The paper dwells on criteria of the network society and network conflicts and p ossible tools for their analysis.

It is shown that the current economic crisis, since its beginning in 2008, demonstrated a powerful influence on the economy both of a poorly regulated technologies of resource allocation (monopolistic, financial) and strong market operators (big capital). This influence resulted in draining out resources from the real economy into big capital and causing barriers for development of the real sector business. This impact of unregulated market technologies and strong operators, which became evident about half a century ago and became considerable today, the more influences the economy, the greater is the complexity (the less is the possibility) of forecasting and economic management. Downfall of predictability, effectiveness of used “formal” tools, decrease of market controllability by normsinstitutions and of control of the most big social (economic) systems; facts of accumulation of significant economic problems — disbalances, debt problems, crime and corruption; high and increasing social inequality, impoverishment of the main part of the population, increasing number of billionaires; decline in resource and credit opportunities of small and medium-sized businesses particularly in Europe. These and many other circumstances listed in the article, the aggravation of which is largely due to the above cited complexity of management and forecasting, make deep analysis of this complexity extremely relevant today.

The paper discusses influence of psychological factors on various processes in society and taking them into account in various approaches to macroeconomics, practical economics and sociology. In evolutionary economics psychological factors are taken into account through functions of demand and production, reflecting behavioral responses of society members. The mathematical dynamic model of macroeconomics is constructed on this basis. The article considers several scenarios of the society evolution and their consequences. It is shown that both transitions of society from prosperous state to crisis and its return from crisis to the welfare are possible. The conditions for implementing these transitions are described.

The possibility of artificial intelligence was originally associated (von Neumann) with the problem of overcoming some hypothetical complexity threshold. Currently, the formation of a modern complexity paradigm in the context of philosophical ideas of E. Morin , G. Deleuze and F. Guattari , second-order cybernetics of Heinz von Foerster, autopoiesis of F. Varela and F. Maturana, cibersemiotics and recursive logic of “laws of form” by J. Spencer Brown causes the necessity of constructive introducing the concept of complexity observer as a self-organizing ensemble of cognitive agents; the artificial intelligence and artificial consciousness will probably become an emergent product of their interaction.

The article represents a history of life and activity in Serbian culture of a strong and colorful personality — Hertzegovinian Savva Vladislavich known in Russia as count Savva Lukic Vladislavich-Raguzinsky.

In his interview the author sums up the results of his long scientific research activity and formulates what should be done to get the humanity out of the “consumption swamp”, in which it found itself at the turn of ХХ и ХХI centuries.

Article considers methodology of applying the complexity concept in modern scientific discourse. Noting impossibility of its further use in a wellestablished blurred and eclectic form, the author proposes to differentiate this concept for three reasons: syncretic and composite complexity, system complexity and complexity of specialization, complexity of structural elements and inter-elementary links. This differentiation sets a fundamentally new methodological optics in analyzing a wide range of phenomena relating both to the natural sciences and to the humanitarian area, as well as to the problem of evolutionary dynamics.

The article examines the interrelation between two leadership competencies — leadership vision of the future and the ability to jointly analyze risks and opportunities. On the basis of empirical research materials the paper considers Russian leaders’ conception of leadership vision, personality and group factors of leadership vision, causes of lack of attention from Russian management teams to long-term risks and opportunities.