DOI: 10.33917/es-1.199.2025.4-5

DOI: 10.33917/es-1.199.2025.6-23

The article examines a possible nuclear attack as a civil problem of managing super-large organizational systems. The key tool for structuring the problem is agent-based modeling. Calculations show that even in case of a nuclear attack, the Russian Federation ensures its infrastructural and institutional stability, maintaining all control levers in the loop of state stability and life support for the population while solving the problems of necessary support for defence and security functionality. In this case, a difficult question arises: at what cost?

References:

1. Ageev A.I. Rol’ sanktsiy, konfliktov i spetsoperatsiy: razmyshleniya o budushchem. Chast’ 2 [The Role of Sanctions, Conflicts and Special Operations: Reflections on the Future. Part 2]. Nauchnyy vestnik oboronno-promyshlennogo kompleksa Rossii, 2024, no 1, pp. 33–42.

2. Bakhtizin A.R., Makarov V.L., Loginov E.L., et al. Gibridnye voyny v makroekonomicheskoy supersisteme XXI veka [Hybrid Wars in the Macroeconomic Supersystem of the XXI Century]. Ekonomicheskie strategii, 2023, vol. 25, no 2(188), pp. 6–23, DOI: ht tps://doi.org/10.33917/es-2.188.2023.6–23.

3. Ageev A.I., Loginov E.L. Novaya bol’shaya voyna: khroniki khorosho zabytogo budushchego [New Large-scale War: Chronicles of Well Forgotten Future]. Ekonomicheskie strategii, 2014, vol. 16, no 6–7(122–123), pp. 16–33.

4. Makarov V.L., Bakhtizin A.R., Sushko E.D. Natsional’naya strategicheskaya sila stran, mezhdunarodnaya torgovlya i ekonomicheskaya uspeshnost’ stran v nestabil’nom mire [National Strategic Power of Countries, International Trade and Economic Success of Countries in an Unstable World]. Strategirovanie: teoriya i praktika, 2023, vol. 3, no 3(9), pp. 277–297.

5. Pudovkin E. “Ogranichennoy yadernoy voyny ne sushchestvuet”. Eksperty — o tom, naskol’ko real’na ee opasnost’ [“Limited Nuclear War Doesn’t Exist.” Experts on How Real Its Danger Is]. RTVI, 2022, 31 maya, available at: https://rtvi.com/stories/ogranichennoj-yadernoj-vojny-ne-sushhestvuet-eksperty-otom-naskolko-realna-ee-opasnost/

6. Surge: 2023 Global nuclear weapons spending. The International Campaign to Abolish Nuclear Weapons (ICAN).

7. Complicit: 2020 Global Nuclear Weapons Spending. The International Campaign to Abolish Nuclear Weapons (ICAN).

8. 90 sekund do polunochi. Chto nado znat’ o yadernoy voyne i ee posledstviyakh. Ob”yasnyaem, kak mogut vyglyadet’ yadernaya voyna i ee posledstviya, a takzhe kak i gde ot nee mozhno spastis’ [90 Seconds to Midnight. What you need to Know about Nuclear War and its Consequences. We Explain what Nuclear War and its Consequences Might Look like, as Well as How and Where you can Escape from it]. Dzen, 2024, 23 noyabrya, available at: https://dzen.ru/a/Z0GbbBQHIkbcs5pd

9. Analitiki otsenili, skol’ko strany tratyat na yadernoe oruzhie v minutu [Analysts have Estimated how much the Countries Spend on Nuclear Weapons per Minute]. RBK, 2022, 15 iyunya, available at: https://www.rbc.ru/politics/15/06/2022/62a984999a79471c65ce1b2a

DOI: 10.33917/es-1.199.2025.126-131

The article dwells on the features of demand management in the medical products mark et from the standpoint of clinical marketing. The factors that determine demand at each level are described and t ypical tools of influence are proposed.

Using the scalar multiplication formula, the author proposes an algorithm for forecasting demand and contribution of each marketing tool, which helps to optimize the marketing budget. It is shown that demand management tools in the medical device market can be classified according to the type of impact and the nature of the influence on demand.

References: 

1. Igrunova O.M. Issledovanie podkhodov k opredeleniyu ponyatiya “Spros” [Research of Approaches to Defining the Concept of “Demand”]. Vestnik Moskovskogo gorodskogo pedagogicheskogo universiteta. Seriya: Ekonomika, 2015, no 1, available at: https://cyberleninka.ru/article/n/issledovanie-podhodovk-opredeleniyu-ponyatiya-spros

2. Avramenko S.A. Klassifikatsiya rynkov po tipu konechnogo potrebitelya [Classification of Markets by Type of end Consumer]. Voprosy regional’noy ekonomiki, 2012, no 3(12), pp. 3–7.

3. Zuenkova Yu.A., Mironov A.V. Elektronnyy registr patsientov kak regional’naya nudge-strategiya [Electronic Patient Registry as a Regional Nudge Strategy]. Vestnik MIRBIS, 2024, no 3(39), pp. 77–85, DOI 10.25634/MIRBIS.2024.3.10

4. Shilova G.F., Lyapunova N.V., Starostenkov N.V. Problemy mezhdistsiplinarnogo podkhoda v sovremennoy istorii [Problems of Interdisciplinary Approach in Modern History]. Vestnik sovremennoy nauki, 2015, no 7-1(7), pp. 77–81.

5. Stiggelbout A.M., Pieterse A.H., De Haes J.C. Shared decision making: Concepts, evidence, and practice. Patient Educ Couns., 2015/N 98(10), pp. 1172-9, DOI: 10.1016/j.pec.2015.06.022. Epub 2015 Jul 15. PMID: 26215573

6. Korotkov A.V., Vershinina A.A. O soderzhanii ekonomicheskoy kategorii i izmerenii rynochnogo sprosa [On the Content of the Economic Category and the Measurement of Market Demand]. Statistika i ekonomika, 2014, no 1, available at: https://cyberleninka.ru/article/n/o-soderzhanii-ekonomicheskoykategorii-i-izmerenii-rynochnogo-sprosa

DOI: 10.33917/es-1.199.2025.24-33

This article is devoted to the anniversary of the Eurasian Economic Union, which began to function on January 1, 2015. In the article, the authors analyze the difficult historical path of the evolution of Eurasian integration cooperation in the post-Soviet space, the formation of integration ideas and their implementation. The motivations, practice and complex circumstances of the ongoing processes of Eurasian integration are considered.

References:

1. Demografiya v tsifrakh. Statistika Evraziyskoy ekonomicheskoy komissii: Evraziyskaya ekonomicheskaya komissiya [Demography in Figures. Statistics of the Eurasian Economic Commission: Eurasian Economic Commission]. Moscow, 2023, 70 p.

2. Dogovor o Evraziyskom ekonomicheskom soyuze ot 29 maya 2014 g. [Treaty on the Eurasian Economic Union of May 29, 2014]. Ofitsial’nyy sayt Evraziyskoy ekonomicheskoy komissii; Ofitsial’nyy internet-portal pravovoy informatsii, available at: http://www.eurasiancommission.org; http://pravo.gov.ru

3. EAES. Evraziyskaya ekonomicheskaya komissiya. 2020–2023 [EAEU. Eurasian Economic Commission. 2020–2023], available at: https://eec.eaeunion.org/

upload/medialibrary/807/EEC-Book-2020_2023.pdf

4. Oblizina V.V. Integratsionnye protsessy v Evraziyskom ekonomicheskom soobshchestve: institutsional’nye osnovy i tekhnologii realizatsii: diss. … kand.

polit. nauk [Integration Processes in the Eurasian Economic Community: Institutional Foundations and Implementation Technologies: diss…. Candidate of Political Sciences]. N. Novgorod, 2007, 161 p.

5. Soglashenie o sozdanii Sodruzhestva Nezavisimykh Gosudarstv (vmeste s Protokolom k Soglasheniyu o sozdanii Sodruzhestva Nezavisimykh Gosudarstv, podpisannomu 8 dekabrya 1991 g. v g. Minske Respublikoy Belarus’, Rossiyskoy Federatsiey (RSFSR), Ukrainoy); protokol podpisan v g. Alma-Ate 21 dekabrya 1991 g. [Agreement on the Establishment of the Commonwealth of Independent States (together with the Protocol to the Agreement on the Establishment

of the Commonwealth of Independent States, signed on December 8, 1991 in Minsk by the Republic of Belarus, the Russian Federation (RSFSR), and Ukraine);

the protocol was signed in Alma-Ata on December 21, 1991]. Sodruzhestvo. Informatsionnyy vestnik Sovetov glav gosudarstv i pravitel’stv SNG, 1992, Vyp. 1, pp. 6–8, 11.

6. Reshenie Soveta glav gosudarstv SNG “O prinyatii Ustava SNG” (vmeste s Ustavom Sodruzhestva Nezavisimykh Gosudarstv) (prinyato v g. Minske 22 yanvarya 1993 g.) (s izm. ot 19 sentyabrya 2003 g.) [Decision of the Council of Heads of State of the CIS “On the Adoption of the CIS Charter” (together with the Charterof the Commonwealth of Independent States) (adopted in Minsk on January 22, 1993) (as amended on September 19, 2003)]. Sodruzhestvo. Informatsionnyy

vestnik Sovetov glav gosudarstv i pravitel’stv SNG, 1993, no 1; Byulleten’ mezhdunarodnykh dogovorov, 1994, no 1.

7. Soglashenie o koordinatsionnykh institutakh SNG ot 21 dekabrya 1991 g. [Agreement on the CIS Coordinating Institutions of December 21, 1991]. Vedomosti SND i VS RF, 1991, 19 dekabrya, no 51, st. 1798; Sodruzhestvo. Informatsionnyy vestnik Soveta glav gosudarstv i Soveta glav pravitel’stv SNG, 1992, no 1.

DOI: 10.33917/es-1.199.2025.132-137

The purpose of this study is to identify future prospects for development of the pharmaceutical industry in the Russian Federation, based on Indian experience. Today, India is the «world’s pharmacy», producing a wide range of drugs: from original ones to generics and vaccines. The country’s success is in full production cycles.

Russian pharmaceutical industry is going through difficult times today: geopolitical uncertainty, sanctions pressure, currency growth — all this has a negative impact on the industry’s development. Another feature of the development of the pharmaceutical industry in Russia is the focus on importing both raw materials and finished products. The state is gradually moving away from this trend, trying to build progressively a model of its own production, and in the future, focus the industry on exports. If this trend continues, Russian pharmaceutical industry will be able to reach a new level in the coming years and provide the domestic market with drugs of its own production.

References: 

1. Kung-Chung & Uday S. Racherla. (2019). Innovation, Economic Development, and Intellectual Property in India and China. Springer opener. Retrieved from ARCIALA Series on Intellectual Assets and Law in Asia. Book series home (springer.com)

2. Logina M.V., Rodygina N.Yu., Musikhin V.I. Razvitie eksporta Rossii produktsii farmatsevticheskoy promyshlennosti v Indiyu [Development of Russian Exports of Pharmaceutical pProducts to India]. Obrazovanie i parvo, 2021, no 3, available at: https://cyberleninka.ru/article/n/razvitie-eksporta-rossii-produktsiifarmatsevticheskoy-promyshlennosti-v-indiyu

3. Kovalenko A.V., Khalimova A.A., Safronova Zh.S., Polyakova Yu.Yu. Ukhod inostrannogo kapitala iz farmatsevticheskoy otrasli Rossii [The Departure of

Foreign Capital from the Russian Pharmaceutical Industry]. Zdorov’e i obrazovanie v XXI veke, 2022, no 8, available at: https://cyberleninka.ru/article/n/uhodinostrannogo-kapitala-iz-farmatsevticheskoy-otrasli-rossi

4. Ovod A.I., Solyanina V.A., Nozdracheva E.N., Pasechko V.V. Eksportno-importnye operatsii v sfere lekarstvennogo obespecheniya Rossii [Exportimport Operations in the Field of pharmaceutical Supply in Russia]. ANI: ekonomika i upravlenie, 2023, no 1(42), available at: https://cyberleninka.ru/article/n/eksportno-importnye-operatsii-v-sfere-lekarstvennogo-obespecheniya-rossii

DOI: 10.33917/es-1.199.2025.34-43

The author explores and compares relationship between the energy industry and economic growth of China and Russia through the cointegration equation and the VECM model. The results prove that China’s energy production hasn’t got any long-term or short-term impact on GDP fluctuations and growth, while oil and natural gas consumption has a long-term impact on GDP growth, coal and natural gas consumption has a short-term positive impact on GDP growth. Energy production and consumption in Russia have an impact on GDP growth. Production of renewable energy, coal and natural gas as well as consumption of coal and natural gas have long-term equilibrium effects on GDP growth, while production of coal and natural gas as well as consumption of coal, oil and natural gas cause short-term positive fluctuations in GDP growth.

References:

1. Kraft J., Kraft A. On the Relationship Between Energy and GNP. The Journal of Energy and Development, 1978, no 3(2), pp. 401–403, available at: http://www.jstor.org/stable/24806805

2. Yu E., Choi J.Y. The Causal Relationship between Energy and GNP: An International Comparison. Journal of Energy Finance & Development, 1985, no 10, pp. 249–272.

3. Kuzovkin A.I. Prognoz energoemkosti VVP Rossii i razvitykh stran na 2020 g. [Forecast of Energy Intensity of GDP in Russia and Developed Countries for 2020]. Problemy prognozirovaniya, 2010, no 3, pp. 144–148.

4. Wang Xuhui, Liu Yong. China’s energy consumption and economic growth: based on cointegration analysis and Granger causality test. Resources Science, 2007, no 29(5), p. 6.

5. Lola I.S., Gluzdovskiy S.V. Primenenie metodov vektornoy avtoregressii v issledovanii vliyaniya malogo roznichnogo predprinimatel’stva na dinamiku torgovli [Application of Vector Autoregression Methods in the Study of the Impact of Small Retail Businesses on Trade Dynamics]. Voprosy statistiki, 2018, vol. 25, no 11, pp. 3–12, EDN VNBZMD

6. Matveev M.G. Parametricheskaya identifikatsiya modeley vektornoy avtoregressii [Parametric Identification of Vector Autoregression Models]. Sovremennaya ekonomika: problemy i resheniya, 2015, no 5, pp. 133–142, available at: ht tps://journals.vsu.ru/meps/article/view/4347

7. Yue Xiaowen. Restoration of oil and gas industry: A review of Russia’s oil and gas industry in 2021. International Petroleum Economics, 2022, no 30(5), pp. 47–52.

8. Hou Meifang. The current situation, challenges and countermeasures of China’s energy transformation and energy security under the goal of carbon neutrality. Journal of Southwest Petroleum University (Natural Science Edition), 2023, no 45(2): 1-1, DOI: 10.11885/j.issn.1674-5086.2023.01.12.02

DOI: 10.33917/es-1.199.2025.138-143

Civilization development reveals a continuous dialectical process of cause-effect cognition of phenomena in all spheres of life.

Unlike observable Cause and Effect, the cognition process requires modern tools of observation and analysis. The synthesis of methods and models for studying cause-effect homeostasis endows the tools with the third component — intelligence, transforming the phenomenon into a dialectical triad.

References: 

1. Gegel’ G.V.F. Sistema nauk. Chast’ pervaya: Fenomenologiya dukha. 1807 g. [System of Sciences. Part One: Phenomenology of Spirit. 1807]. Moscow, Nauka, 2015.

2. Speranskiy A.A. Mnogomernye vektorno-fazovye attraktory gomeostaza sostoyaniy uprugikh system [Multidimensional Vector-phase Attractors of Homeostasis of States of Elastic Systems]. Dvigatel’, 2017, no 3, pp. 28–32.

DOI: 10.33917/es-1.199.2025.44-49

The purpose of the present study is to identif y the specifics of using the world capital market by developed and developing countries in modern conditions. It has been established that the interests of developed countries consist in shaping a controlled international financial market that will ensure long-term and low-volatility returns on assets without taking into account the interests of other entities in the global capital mark et. The interests of countries with developing economies are reduced to ensuring maximum return on assets in the shor t-term period, since in the long term they cannot compete with developed countries in the global financial mark et. Based on econometric calculations, it was made an assessment of the effects of growing investment returns in developed and developing countries due to the presence of competitive advantages in the global capital market. It is concluded that the global capital market is used by developed and developing countries in different ways — the former seek to ensure preservation of their privileges through exploiting global imbalances, the latter — to gain access to borrowed capital in order to stimulate their own economic development. Disproportions in the use and regulation of the global capital market lead to dependent position of developing economies, which is why they are striving to transform the global financial architecture to protect their own national interests.

References:

1. Vinokurov E.Yu., Grichik M.V. Novaya kontseptsiya mezhdunarodnykh rezervov: bezopasnost’, diversifikatsiya, neortodoksal’nye podkhody [New Concept of International Reserves: Security, Diversification, Unorthodox Approaches]. Voprosy ekonomiki, 2022, no 12, pp. 24–43.

2. Voskanyan M.A., Khurshudyan S.E. Kontsentratsiya kapitala v global’noy ekonomike kak faktor neravnomernogo raspredeleniya dokhodov [Concentration of Capital in the Global Economy as a Factor in Unequal Income Distribution]. Sovremennaya mirovaya ekonomika, 2023, vol. 1, no 2(2).

3. Golovnin M.Yu., Nikitina S.A. Sovremennye tendentsii dinamiki mezhdunarodnykh potokov kapitala [Current Trends in the Dynamics of International Capital Flows]. Mir novoy ekonomiki, 2018, no 12(4), pp. 46–56.

4. Kuznetsov A.V. Kontseptual’nye podkhody k formirovaniyu ustoychivoy mirovoy valyutno-finansovoy sistemy [Conceptual Approaches to Formation of a Sustainable Global Monetary and Financial System]. Finansy: teoriya i praktika, 2023, no 27(4), pp. 164–172.

5. Bulatov A. Kuda dvizhetsya mirovoy kapital [Where is the Global Capital Heading?]. Ekons, available at: https://econs.online/articles/opinions/kudadvizhetsya-mirovoy-kapital/

6. FDI income by counterpart area, BMD4. OECD, available at: https://www.oecd.org/

7. Country Composition of WEO Groups. IMF, available at: https://www.imf.org/en/Publications/WEO/weo-database/2023/April/groups-and-aggregates

8. Nesterov I.O. Rezervnye valyuty — istochnik nestabil’nosti mirovoy valyutnoy sistemy? [Reserve Currencies — a Source of Instability in the Global Monetary System?]. Vestnik Sankt-Peterburgskogo universiteta. Ekonomika, 2012, no 4, pp. 115–123.

DOI: 10.33917/es-1.199.2025.50-57

The author examines a “geodesic” model of the country’s socio-economic space, based on analogues of the geographical concepts of parallel and meridian as structural landmarks for an object’s location in the socio-economic space. The role of parallels is played by socio-economic strata, combining trajectories of the possible movement of agents without significantly increasing their status in the economy and society. The role of meridians is performed by routes that determine the possibilities of increasing the agent’s status without significantly changing the nature and location of his professional activity. This model can be used for navigation of socio-economic agents when moving in space, as well as for identifying current directions of socio-economic policy aimed at increasing the continuity and coherence of the socio-economic space of Russia. The geodesic model of socio-economic space, based on a grid of parallels and meridians, allows scaling and application not only to country systems, but also to other hierarchical socio-economic systems, including enterprises, cities, and sectors of the economy.

References:

1. Tambovtsev V.L. Institutsional’naya slozhnost’: novoe napravlenie izucheniya institutov? [Institutional Complexity: A New Direction for the Study of Institutions?]. Voprosy teoreticheskoy ekonomiki, 2023, no 2, pp. 22–24, DOI: 10.52342/2587-7666VTE_2023_2_22_34

2. Byrne D., Callaghan G. Complexity Theory and the Social Sciences. London & New York, Routledge, 2014.

3. Complex New World. Translating New Economic Thinking into Public Policy. Dolphin T., Nash D. (eds.). London: Institute for Public Policy Research, 2012.

4. Arthur W. Complexity and the Economy. Science, 1999, vol. 284, N 5411, pp. 107–109.

5. Bertalanffy L., von. General System theory: Foundations, Development, Applications. New York: George Braziller, Inc., 1968. 289 p.

6. Gavrilets Yu.N. Slozhnost’, upravlenie i informatsiya v sotsial’no-ekonomicheskikh sistemakh [Complexity, Governance and Information in Socioeconomic Systems]. Problemy teorii i praktiki upravleniya, 2016, no 12, pp. 39–49.

7. Lukin E.V. Regulirovanie mezhregional’nykh tsepochek dobavlennoy stoimosti: problemy analiza i modelirovaniya [Regulation of Interregional Value Chains: Problems of Analysis and Modeling]. Problemy prognozirovaniya, 2022, no 1, pp. 19–33, DOI: 10.47711/0868-6351-190-19-33

8. Orekhova S.V. Metodologicheskie osnovy opredeleniya institutsional’noy slozhnosti rynka [Methodological Foundations for Determining the Institutional Complexity of the Market]. Upravlenets, 2015, no 4, pp. 24–35.

9. Orekhova S.V. Teoreticheskaya model’ analiza institutsional’noy sredy otraslevykh rynkov [Theoretical Model for Analyzing the Institutional Environment of Industry Markets]. Teoreticheskaya i prikladnaya ekonomika, 2016, no 3, pp. 164–176.

10. Gastev Yu.A. Gomomorfizmy i modeli (logiko-algebraicheskie aspekty modelirovaniya) [Homomorphisms and Models (Logical and Algebraic Aspects of Modeling)]. Moscow, Nauka, 1975, 152 p.