The "Economic Strategies" journal

2023 #6 2023 Double Bottom of the Future




Isn’t it Time to “Check the Boxes” of What is Permitted?

DOI: 10.33917/es-6.192.2023.46-51

The problem of the economic policies ontology is examined. Paradigms define practices and scenarios for the future. Crisis of the “mainstream” and the polymorphic structure of the world economy imply an intensive search for new theoretical and practical solutions.

References:

1. Smolyan G.L. Refleksivnoe upravlenie — tekhnologiya prinyatiya manipulyativnykh resheniy [Reflexive Management — Technology for Making Manipulative Decisions]. Trudy ISA RAN, 2013, vol. 63, no 2. Tsentr gumanitarnykh tekhnologiy, 2016, 25 sentyabrya, available at: https://gtmarket.ru/library/articles/7309

2. Lepsky Vladimir E. Reflexive Control in Multi-Subjective and Multi-Agent Systems. Proceedigs of the Workshop on Multi-Reflexive Models of Agent Behavior. ARL-SR-64, May 1999, pp. 111–117.

3. Ageev A.I., Kuroedov B.V., Met’yuz R., Sandarov O.S. Metodologiya strategicheskoy matritsy [Strategic Matrix Methodology]. Monografiya. Moscow, INES, 2004, 152 p. (Strategicheskoe prevoskhodstvo. Seriya MLSU)

4. Global’nyy reyting integral’noy moshchi 100 stran: Doklad-2012 [Global Rating of Integral Power of 100 Countries: Report 2012]. 3-e izd., pererab. i dop. Moscow, Mezhdunarodnaya akademiya issledovaniy budushchego, Institut ekonomicheskikh strategiy, 2012, 108 p.

5. Strategiya natsional’noy bezopasnosti SShA 2022 [US National Security Strategy 2022]. Rossiyskiy pravovoy portal: Biblioteka Pashkova. 2011. 16 marta.

URL: https://constitutions.ru/?p=5292

6. Ponomarev V.P. Polimorfnaya gamma-shkala ekonomicheskogo razvitiya [Polymorphic Gamma-Scale of Economic Development]. Ekonomicheskie strategii, 2022, vol. 24, no 1, pp. 106–111, DOI: https://doi.org/10.33917/es-1.181.2022.106-111

7. Mityaev D.A. O dinamike samorazrusheniya mirovoy finansovoy sistemy (stsenarii i strategii). Vozmozhnosti adaptatsii i vybor strategii dlya Rossii: Stsenarno-igrovoy doklad [On the Dynamics of Self-Destruction of the Global Financial System (Scenarios and Strategies). Adaptation Possibilities and Choice of Strategy for Russia: Scenario-Game Report]. Moscow, INES, 2009, 61 p.

8. Ageev A.I., Loginov E.L. New Deal — 2008 — “novaya sdacha”. Bludnye ucheniki Franklina Ruzvel’ta [New Deal — 2008 — “New Change”. Franklin Roosevelt’s Prodigal Disciples]. Ekonomicheskie strategii, 2009, vol. 11, no 2, pp. 31–36.

Cognitive Collective Convergent Engineering. Part II

DOI: 10.33917/es-6.192.2023.52-61

The article presents an analysis of the fundamental problems of civilizational transit with digital transformation of Industry 4.0 and forms the requirements for methodology and technologies for reassembling transdisciplinary engineering knowledge. The authors propose alternative solutions and counterintuitive approaches to transform reindustrialization based on innovative technologies of cognitive collective convergent engineering – C3 engineering, graph-centric platforms of digital genesis, tools, models and systems of collective intellectual work. The new global trend, proposed by Russia, represents the closing technologies of C3 engineering, which have a colossal socio-political resource of ensuring national sovereignty and leadership with the potential for global technological accession.

References:

5. Budanov V.G. Metodologiya sinergetiki v postneklassicheskoi nauke i v obrazovanii [Methodology of Synergetics in Post-non-classical Science and Education]. Izd. 4-e, dop. Moscow, LENAND, 2017, 272 p.

6. Budanov V.G. Obobshchennaya nauchnaya ratsional’nost’: istoki, struktura, perspektivy v tsifrovuyu epokhu: Antropomernost’ kak vyzov i otvet sovremennosti: Kollektivnaya monografiya [Generalized Scientific Rationality: Origins, Structure, Prospects in the Digital Age: Anthropomension as a Challenge and Response of Modernity: Collective Monograph]. Otv. red. V.G. Budanov. Kursk, Universitetskaya kniga, 2022, pp. 44–62.

7. #Gipergraf:Platforma, RKD [#Hypergraph:Platform, RKD]. Moscow, OOO “GiperGrafGrupp”, 2021.

8. Protocol of demonstration of the control system to representatives of the Kalashnikov Concern [Electronic resource], available at: https://7055ce99-63ff-

424d-ab7e-fe27c9fefd34.usrfiles.com/ugd/7055ce_a0898b7345e94386819200c0d4110432.pdf

9. Taxonomic analysis of mandatory reporting of credit organizations of the Central Bank of the Russian Federation [Electronic resource], available at: https://www.grafxm.ru/post/modernizaciya-sistemy-sbora-otchetnosti-kreditnyh-organizacij-v-cb-rf

10. NATO RTO protocols. NATO-RUSSIAN working platform on defense R&T co-operation [Electronic resource], available at: https://7055ce99-63ff-424dab7e-

fe27c9fefd34.usrfiles.com/ugd/7055ce_24f228929de04862aecb27ac452f559c.pdf

11. Expertise and reviews [Electronic resource]. M.: HyperGraphGroup LLC, 2021. URL: ht tps://www.gipergraf.ru/

Technology of Data Information Space and Improvement of Public Administration

DOI: 10.33917/es-6.192.2023.62-67

The article examines possibilities of the ontological model and technology of the data information space and the ISIAD software product. This experience can be successfully used in the “Data Economy” national project.

References:

1. Ageev A.I., Kuz’min O.V., Perminova E.A. Informatsionnaya bezopasnost’ avtomatizirovannykh sistemy upravleniya proizvodstvennym i tekhnologicheskimi protsessami ob”ektov kriticheskoy informatsionnoy infrastruktu [Information Security of Automated Control Systems for Production and Technological Processes of Critical Information Infrastructure Facilities]. Ucheb. posobie. Moscow, MNIPU, 2021.

2. Ageev A.I., Bondarik V.N., Ivanova O.D., Kudryavtsev A.V., Loshchinin A.A. Tekhnokraticheskaya kontseptsiya proektov tsifrovoy ekonomiki: sinergiya integratsii sistem i dannykh [The Technocratic Concept of Digital Economy Projects: the Synergy of Integration of Systems and Data]. Mikroekonomika, 2018,

no 5, pp. 14–21.

3. Ageev A.I., Grabchak E.P., Loginov E.L., Chinaliev V.U. Tsifrovaya platforma upravleniya nauchno-tekhnologicheskim razvitiem v prostranstve ekonomicheskogo sotrudnichestva [Digital Platform for Managing Scientific and Technological Development within Economic Cooperation Framework].

Ekonomicheskie strategii, 2023, no 1, pp. 56–69, DOI: https://doi.org/10.33917/es-1.187.2023.56-69

4. Loshchinin A.A., Bondarik V.N., Kudryavtsev A.V. Nekotorye informatsionno-tekhnologicheskie aspekty tsifrovoy ekonomiki [Some Information and Technological Aspects of the Digital Economy]. Mikroekonomika, 2017, no 4, pp. 67–71.

5. Ageev A.I., Radina V.Ya. Metodika tsifrovoy ekonomiki v chasti upravleniya i kontrol’noy deyatel’nosti v real’nom sektore ekonomiki [Methods of Digital Economy in Terms of Management and Control Activities in the Real Economy]. Ekonomicheskie strategii, 2019, no 3, pp. 44–56, DOI: 10.33917/es-3.161.2019.44-56

6. Loshchinin A.A. Informatizatsiya v administrativnykh sistemakh [Informatization in Administrative Systems]. Moscow, 1999.

7. Loshchinin A.A. Bol’shaya informatizatsiya malykh territoriy [Big Informatization of small Territories]. Informatsionnye tekhnologii territorial’nogoupravleniya, 2002, no 36.

8. Loshchinin A.A. Tekhnologii informatizatsii administrativnykh organov territoriy [Technologies for Informatization of Administrative bodies of Territories].

Informatika i vychislitel’naya tekhnika, 1997, no 4, pp. 31–35.

9. Loshchinin A.A. Informatsionnye modeli territorial’nykh administrativnykh system [Information Models of Territorial Administrative Systems]. Informatsionnye tekhnologii v strukturakh gosudarstvennoy sluzhby, Moscow, RAGS, 1999.

10. Loshchinin A.A. Osnovy prikladnoy biznes-informatiki [Fundamentals of applied Business Informatics]. Saransk, 2017, 422 p.

11. Loshchinin A.A. CASE — sreda dlya informatizatsii administrativnykh sistem na osnove IPD-tekhnologii [CASE is an Environment for Informatization of Administrative Systems based on IPD technology]. Informatsionnye tekhnologii v strukturakh gosudarstvennoy sluzhby, Moscow, RAG S, 2001.

Forecast Merging

DOI: 10.33917/es-6.192.2023.68-69

Review of the book by A.A. Frenkel and A.A. Surkov “Forecasts Merging — an Effective Tool for Increasing Forecasting Accuracy”, dedicated to the analysis of accumulated knowledge about various approaches and methods for constructing a combined forecast. The book provides a forecast for manufacturing certain types of industrial products based on the use of various private and combined forecasting methods and makes a statistical comparison of their accuracy.

Inflation Factors in Modern Russia, the Specter of Recession and Stability Reserves

DOI: 10.33917/es-6.192.2023.70-77

The most important factor of inflation in the modern Russian economy is investment support for backward technologies.

The cheapness of labour and the low rate of accumulation cause a backwardness funnel into which the economy is gradually plunging. Meanwhile, interventions of the Bank of Russia weaken the national currency, provoke new waves of inflation and block economic growth. At the same time, the Russian economy has certain reserves of stability, based on the presence of a number of built-in stabilizers, identified through regression analysis. A set of measures aimed at overcoming the current unfavourable dynamics of the economic environment is proposed and justified.

References:

1. Zhizn’ vzaimy. Kak peregrelas’ rossiiskaya ekonomika i chem eto grozit [Life on Borrowed Time. How the Russian Economy Overheated and what it Threatens]. NUR.KZ, 2023, 8 avgusta, available at: https://dzen.ru/a/ZNHKoql33BP55hHi?encoded_pulse_user_info=PDubqO-mOXxJtkXI01sTPDSj4o_

Q7q8ajWIqVL5OKPXKtXjqwwubLYQ9uqJHRpSNnu6u6WiAaaTXMl_h8g6euw:1691563565003&from_site=mai

2. Nizhegorodtsev R.M., Gorid’ko N.P., Ivanov E.Yu., Trenev N.N., Skachkova M.A. Gorizonty ekonomicheskogo rosta: faktory, riski, instituty: Nauch. Monografiya [Horizons of Economic Growth: Factors, Risks, Institutions: Scientific monograph.]. Ed. R.M. Nizhegorodtseva. Moscow, NIPKTs “Voskhod-A”, 2022, 184 p.

3. Kochetov Aleksei. Zapadnye eksperty prishli k vyvodu, chto ekonomika Rossii dolzhna byt’ v 3–5 raz bol’she, chem ob etom zayavlyayut… [Western Experts Have Come to the Conclusion that the Russian Economy Should be 3–5 Times Larger than Stated…]. Dzen.ru, 2023, 27 maya, available at: https://dzen.ru/a/ZG4spOPg13Hyab99?from_site=mail

National Financial-Economic Development. Analysis of the Russian Federation Strategic Documents

DOI: 10.33917/es-6.192.2023.78-83

The author substantiates the need to reform the strategic planning system at the current stage of Russia’s development, which will allow our country to take a leading position in the world. Documentation related to the sphere of strategic planning of the Russian Federation is analyzed, recommendations are given for introducing changes to Russian legislation on issues of national socio-economic development.

References:

1. Zasedanie Soveta bezopasnosti, v khode kotorogo obsuzhdalis’ mery po sovershenstvovaniyu sistemy strategicheskogo planirovaniya v Rossiyskoy Federatsii [Meeting of the Security Council, During which Measures to Improve the Strategic Planning System in the Russian Federation were Discussed, 09/27/2021]. Ofitsial’nyy sayt Prezidenta Rossiyskoy Federatsii, 2021, 27 sentyabrya, available at: http://www.kremlin.ru/events/president/transcripts/copy/66777

2. Baza rekomendatsiy Schetnoy palaty Rossiyskoy Federatsii [Database of Recommendations of the Accounts Chamber of the Russian Federation]. Ofitsial’nyy sayt Schetnoy palaty RF, available at: https://rec.ach.gov.ru

3. Ofitsial’nyy sayt Schetnoy palaty RF [Official website of the Accounts Chamber of the Russian Federation], available at: https://rec.ach.gov.ru/analitika?j&paramCard=1

4. Dokumenty strategicheskogo planirovaniya [Strategic Planning Documents]. Ofitsial’nyy sayt gosudarstvennoy avtomatizirovannoy informatsionnoy sistemy “Upravlenie”, available at: https://gasu.gov.ru/stratdocuments

5. Gaynulin D.G., Voronin V.V., Panchikhina O.V., Pal’chikov E.A., Tyupyshev D.A. Sistema strategicheskogo planirovaniya Rossiyskoy Federatsii: riski i perspektivy [Strategic Planning System of the Russian Federation: Risks and Prospects]. Innovatsii, 2018, no 4(234), pp. 29–35.

Internal Economic Security as a Factor in Increasing the Competitiveness of the State in the International Arena

DOI: 10.33917/es-6.192.2023.84-89

Over the past few decades, the approach to assessing the competitiveness of the state has moved from a closer focus on strict economic indicators to the assessment of such parameters as the human-centeredness of the economy, improvement of the quality of life, emphasis on innovation and digital transformation. At the same time, it is not yet possible to assert the complete dominance of social parameters in the comprehensive image assessment of the state. Thus, according to the author of the study, the phenomenon of state competitiveness is inextricably linked to the desire of the world community for international economic security, which, in turn, is inseparable from the national economic security of individual actors. At the same time, the social orientation of the policy is not the last place in the assessment of national economic security, which is in line with the global trend to popularize non-economic image factors of competitiveness. Explores the conceptual framework, interrelation and interdependence of the concepts of state competitiveness and economic security, determining their essential indivisibility both in economic and political science boundaries.

References:

1. The Global Competitiveness Report 2011–2012. World Economic Forum. New York: Oxford University Press, 2002. С. 3, 4.

2. Gordienko D.V., Safonov M.S. Reintegratsiya ili dezintegratsiya. Kak zashchitit’ natsional’nye interesy? [Reintegration or Disintegration. How to Protect National Interests?]. Moscow, Nauchnaya biblioteka, 2018, 384 p.

3. Gromova N.V. Rol’ chelovecheskogo kapitala v obespechenii konkurentosposobnosti sovremennykh kompanii [The Role of Human Capital in Ensuring the Competitiveness of Modern Companies]. Sovremennaya konkurentsiya, 2014, no 6, p. 128.

4. Mariya Chunikhina. Doklad Mishustina Putinu o sostoyanii ekonomiki strany v 2023 godu. Glavnoe [Mishustin’s Report to Putin on the State of the Country’s Economy in 2023. Main]. AiF, 2023, 5 iyulya, available at: https://aif.ru/money/economy/doklad_mishutina_putinu_o_sostoyanii_ekonomiki_strany_v_2023_godu_glavnoe

5. Zakon RF ot 5 marta 1992 g. N 2446-I “O bezopasnosti” (s izm. i dop.) [Law of the Russian Federation of March 5, 1992 No. 2446-I “On Security” (as amended and supplemented)]. Garant, available at: https://base.garant.ru/3959688/

6. Ukaz Prezidenta RF ot 29 aprelya 1996 g. N 608 [Decree of the President of the Russian Federation dated April 29, 1996 No. 608]. Ofitsial’nyi sait Prezidenta RF, available at: http://www.kremlin.ru/acts/bank/9261

7. Ukaz Prezidenta RF ot 13 maya 2017 g. N 208 “O Strategii ekonomicheskoi bezopasnosti Rossiiskoi Federatsii na period do 2030 goda” [Decree of the President of the Russian Federation of May 13, 2017 No. 208 “On the Strategy for the Economic Security of the Russian Federation for the period until 2030”].

Ofitsialэnyi sait Prezidenta RF, available at: http://www.kremlin.ru/acts/bank/41921

8. Morgenthau H.J., Knopf A.A. Politics Among Nations. The Struggle for Power and Peace. Second Edition. N.Y., 1955.

Problem Areas

DOI: 10.33917/es-6.192.2023.90-95

The following areas of socio-economic life, where conditions for implementing strategic risks have developed, are considered: demography, scientific and engineering sphere, mechanical engineering. For solving the problems of the listed areas a coordinated concept is required. According to the authors, its central element should become construction of a large private business, especially in high-tech areas.

References:

1. Demograficheskoe budushchee Rossii [Demographic Future of Russia], available at: https://strana-oz.ru/2004/4/demograficheskoe-budushchee-rossii/

2. Rosstat predstavil utochnennyi demograficheskii prognoz do 2036 goda [Rosstat Presented an Updated Demographic Forecast until 2036]. Federal’naya sluzhba gosudarstvennoi statistiki, available at: https://rosstat.gov.ru/folder/313/document/72529

3. Uchenye opredelili “vilku” chislennosti naseleniya Rossii: Bol’shaya chast’ prognozov predusmatrivaet sokrashchenie chislennosti rossiyan [Scientists have Identified a “Fork” in the Population of Russia: Most Forecasts Envisage a Reduction in the Number of Russians]. RBK, 2022, 26 iyulya, available at:

https://www.rbc.ru/economics/26/07/2022/62de7e0f9a7947e84216786d

4. Mariya Makarova. Deindustrializatsiya, krizis, katastrofy: kak poyavlyayutsya goroda-prizraki [Deindustrialization, Crisis, Disasters: How Ghost Towns Appear]. RBK, 2021, 27 avgusta, available at: https://trends.rbc.ru/trends/social/61263ba09a79473e409999c3

5. Anastasiya Tselykh. Rossiyane rabotayut mnogo i plokho. Pochemu tak i chto s etim delat’ [Russians Work Hard and Poorly. Why is this and what to do about it]. Sekret firmy, 2021, 7 maya, available at: https://secretmag.ru/survival/rossiyane-rabotayut-mnogo-i-plokho-pochemu-tak-i-chto-s-etim-delat.htm/

6. Ekaterina Vinogradova. Eksperty ob”yasnili minimum bezrabotitsy v Rossii pri sokrashchenii ekonomiki. Sredi prichin — demograficheskie problemy I nepolnaya zanyatost’ [Experts Explained the Minimum Unemployment in Russia due to the Contraction of the Economy. Reasons Include Demographic Problems and Underemployment]. RBK, 2023, 3 marta, available at: https://www.rbc.ru/economics/03/03/2023/6400712f9a79474d18f79446

7. Anastasiya Kalinina. Srednyaya prodolzhitel’nost’ zhizni v Rossii v 2022–2023 godu [Average Life Expectancy in Russia in 2022–2023]. VisaSam.ru, 2023, 5 oktyabrya, available at: https://visasam.ru/russia/goroda/prodolzhitelnost-zhizni-v-rossii.html

8. Uroven’ zhizni rossiyan padaet uzhe bolee 10 let [The Standard of Living of Russians has been Falling for More than 10 Years]. Dzen.ru, 2022, 18 noyabrya, available at: https://dzen.ru/a/Y3cwaLfI3z1z_b65

9. Razrushenie nauki do “pobednogo kontsa” [Destruction of Science to the Bitter End]. RAN, 2007, 31 maya, available at: https://www.ras.ru/digest/showdnews.aspx?id=9fd43650-ca35-4305-a537-6418fdc62a05&print=1

10. Kul’kin A.M. Nauka v Rossii: protsess degradatsii ili perspektivy ee vozrozhdeniya? [Science in Russia: Process of Degradation or Prospects for Its Revival?]. CyberLeninka.ru, available at: https://cyberleninka.ru/article/n/nauka-v-rossii-protsess-degradatsii-ili-perspektivy-ee-vozrozhdeniya