DOI: https://doi.org/10.33917/es-6.186.2022.118-125

This article discusses various aspects of the situation of import substitution in the field of perfumery and cosmetics retail, which has developed in the Russian Federation in the middle of 2022. The author analyzes the changes that have occurred in the market after the tightening of sanctions and restrictions by Western countries. Further trends in the development of the domestic perfumery and cosmetics market are revealed. It is concluded that the events taking place not only have negative aspects, but also provide ample opportunities for domestic producers. The Russian market and the perfume and cosmetics industry itself are waiting for serious internal transformations in the coming years, but the market capacity cannot decrease and will tend to increase, which determines the need for effective import substitution based on the development of own production and increased supplies from friendly countries.

References:

1. Shmidt M. B’yuti-rynok Rossii: vzglyad top-menedzhera ekspata [Russian Beauty Market: View of an Expat Top Manager]. E-xecutive.ru, available at: https://www.e-xecutive.ru/management/practices/1992062-beauty-rynok-rossii-vzglyad-top-menedzhera-ekspata.

2. Importozameshchenie v sfere kosmeticheskogo osnashcheniya [Import Substitution in the Field of Cosmetic Equipment]. Postavshchiki mashin i oborudovaniya, available at: https://www.oborudunion.ru/publications/releases/34398.

3. Andrianova D. Kraski bleknut. Kosmetika dorozhaet i plokho importiruetsya [Colors Are Fading. Cosmetics Become More Expensive and Poorly Imported]. Kommersant”, 2022, 3 marta.

4. Mertsalova A., Kostyrev A. Parfyumeriya zapakhla defitsitom [Perfumes Started Smelling of Deficiency]. Kommersant”, 2022, 26 marta.

5. Bezuglova V. V ozhidanii renessansa rossiiskoi kosmetiki [Waiting for the Renaissance of Russian cosmetics]. Ekspert, 2022, no 23, available at: https://expert.ru/expert/2022/23/v-ozhidanii-renessansa-rossiyskoy-kosmetiki.

6. Kobits E. Kosmeticheskie perspektivy: peredel rynka na ruku rossiiskim brendam [Cosmetic Prospects: Market Redistribution Is on Hand to Russian Brands]. Ekspert, 2022, 20 aprelya, available at: https://expert.ru/2022/04/20/kosmeticheskiye-perspektivy-peredel-rynka-na-ruku-rossiyskim-brendam.

7. Kobits E. Rossiiskaya kosmetika pokazala nereal’nyi rezul’tat [Russian Cosmetics Showed an Unrealistic Result]. Ekspert, 2022, 1 iyunya, available at: https://expert.ru/2022/06/1/rossiyskaya-kosmetika-probivayet-potolok.

8. Minpromtorg isklyuchil sokrashchenie assortimenta kosmetiki i parfyumerii [Ministry of Industry and Trade Ruled Out a Reduction in the Range of Cosmetics and Perfumes]. Retail Loyalty, available at: https://retail-loyalty.org/news/minpromtorg-isklyuchil-sokrashchenie-assortimenta-kosmetiki-i-parfyumerii.

9. Rynok kosmetiki v Rossii (s vidami), vliyanie sanktsii (s dannymi za yanvar’ — fevral’ 2022 g.): issledovanie i prognoz do 2026 g. Vypusk: 2022 g., iyun’ [Cosmetics Market in Russia (with Types), Impact of Sanctions (with Data for January — February 2022): Research and Forecast until 2026. Issue: 2022, June]. ROIF Expert, available at: https://roif-expert.ru/potrebitelskie-tovary/sredstva-po-uhodu/rynok-kosmetiki/rynok-kosmetiki-v-rossii-issledovanie-i-prognoz.html.

DOI: https://doi.org/10.33917/es-6.186.2022.126-133

Principles are the basis of the law: a constant connection between the previous and the next, between the current state of the world and the immediate coming. One of the basic principles of the evolution of human society since ancient times has been the principle of trust — you could only survive together by trusting your own. The principle of trust was the basis for building trust-based management systems that evolved, reflecting the basic models of the market code.

References:

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2. Saraev V.N. Kollektivnyi iskusstvennyi intellekt. Platforma [Collective Artificial Intelligence. Platform]. Moscow, 2019, 55 p.

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4. Litavrin G.G. Kak zhili vizantiitsy [How the Byzantines Lived]. Saint Petersburg, Aleteiya, 2014, 256 p.

5. Devyatov A.P. Prakticheskoe kitaevedenie: Kitai i Rossiya v rakurse peremen: dlya tekh, kto prinimaet resheniya [Practical Chinese Studies: China and Russia in the Perspective of Change: for Those Who Make Decisions]. Moscow, Zhigul’skii, 2008, 176 p.

6. Mil’kov V.V. Osmyslenie istorii v Drevnei Rusi [Comprehension of History in Ancient Russia]. Saint Petersburg, Aleteiya, 2000, 384 p.

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8. Dicey A.V. The Privy Council. L., N.Y., Macmilla, 1887, 164 p.

9. Maitland F.W. The Constitutional History of England: A Course of Lectures. Cambr., 1911, 582 p.

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11. Vaino A.E., Kobyakov A.A., Saraev V.N. Kod rynka [Market Code]. Ekonomicheskie strategii, 2011, vol. 13, no 11, pp. 94–99.

12. Glaz’ev S.Yu. Strategiya operezhayushchego razvitiya Rossii v usloviyakh global’nogo krizisa [Strategy of Advanced Development of Russia in the Conditions of the Global Crisis]. Moscow, Ekonomika, 2010, 255 p.

13. Lefevr V.N. Konfliktuyushchie struktury [Conflicting Structures]. Moscow, Sovetskoe radio, 1973, 108 p.

14. Ereshko F.I. Modelirovanie refleksivnykh strategii v upravlyaemykh sistemakh [Modeling of Reflexive Strategies in Controlled Systems]. Moscow, VTs RAN, 2001, 47 p.

15. Soros Dzh. Alkhimiya finansov [The Alchemy of Finance]. Moscow, Infra-M, 1996, 416 p.

16. Neklessa A.I. Transfinitnaya ekonomika [Transfinite Economics]. Ekonomicheskie strategii, 2010, vol. 12, no 3, pp. 18–24.

17. Kantor G. Trudy po teorii mnozhestv [Works on Set Theory]. Moscow, Nauka, 1985, 430 p.

DOI: https://doi.org/10.33917/es-6.186.2022.134-141

In the article, the process of establishing the cost of modern business is considered as a system of economic interactions between economic entities. The study presents the author’s concept of the economic interactions’ typology. The author distinguishes atomistic, organic and harmonic types of economic interactions and comes to the conclusion that each of them corresponds to a certain interaction model (traditional industrial model, network model). Within each of them a mechanism of interaction, expectations, and conflict resolution is formed. Different types of economic interaction coexist simultaneously and not always in a coordinated manner. They are often intertwined. Economic subjects use a differentiated approach when interacting with each other. The focus of business strategy is shifting from internal optimization processes to coordinating external interactions, from increasing customer value to maximizing ecosystem value.

References:

1. Tszen M. Alibaba i umnyi biznes budushchego: Kak otsifrovka biznes-protsessov izmenila vzglyad na strategiyu [Alibaba and the Smart Business of the Future: How Digitalization of Business Processes has Changed the Way We Look at Strategy. Moscow, Al‘pina Pablisher, 2019, 320 p.

2. Marks K. Kapital. Kritika politicheskoi ekonomii. V 3 t. T. 1. Kn. 1. Protsess proizvodstva kapitala [Capital. Critique of Political Economy: In 3 Volumes. Vol. 1. Book. 1: The Process of Capitalist Production]. Marks K., Engel’s F. Sochineniya: V 55 t. 2-e izd. Moscow, Gospolitizdat, 1960, vol. 23, pp. 351, 430.

3. Marks K., Engel’s F. Nemetskaya ideologiya [The German Ideology]. Marks K., Engel’s F. Sobr. soch., 2-e izd. Moscow Gosudarstvennoe izd-vo politicheskoi literatury, 1955, vol. 3, pp. 480.

4. Nort D. Instituty, institutsional’nye izmeneniya i funktsionirovanie ekonomiki [Institutions, Institutional Change and Economic Performance]. Per. s angl. A.N. Nesterenko; Predisl. i nauch. red. B.Z. Mil’nera. Moscow, Fond ekonomicheskoi knigi “Nachala”, 1997, 180 p. (Sovremennaya institutsional’no-evolyutsionnaya teorii.)

5. Buaie R. Teoriya regulyatsii: kriticheskii analiz [Regulation Theory: A Critical Analysis]. Per. s fr. N.B. Kuznetsovoi. Moscow, Nauch.-izd. tsentr “Nauka dlya obshchestva”: Ros. gos. gumanit. un-t, 1997, 212 p. (Sovremennaya ekonomicheskaya mysl’.)

6. Uil’yamson O.I. Ekonomicheskie instituty kapitalizma: Firmy, rynki, “otnoshencheskaya” kontraktatsiya [Economic Institutions of Capitalism: Firms, Markets, “Relational” Contracting]. Nauch. red. i vstupitel’naya stat’ya V.S. Kat’kalo; Per. s angl. Yu.V. Blagova, V.S. Kat’kalo, D.S. Slavnova, Yu.V. Fedotova, N.N. Tsytovich. Saint Petersburg, Lenizdat; CEV Press, 1996, p. 56.

7. Anan’in O.I., Odintsova M.I. Metodologiya ekonomicheskoi nauki: sovremennye problemy i tendentsii [Methodology of Economic Science: Current Problems and Trends]. ISTOKI, Vyp. 4, Moscow, IE RAN, 2000, pp. 135, 136.

DOI: https://doi.org/10.33917/es-6.186.2022.142-151

The article investigates the phenomenon of post-truth which today has become the king of the mental world. The post-truth expresses the destructive will of the subject to power, the desire to replace the truth with the power of the machine will. Artificial intelligence is a technically complete embodiment of the post-truth. The post-truth is a method of the people standardization. In the post-truth, the will to play as a kingdom and the temptation of the emptiness, irresponsibility, is hidden. The post-truth expresses the civilization transformation into a machine that produces garbage and waste. In the post-truth, the unrestrained and predetermined will of garbage, a garbage can, the garbage, seeking to become a space holiday of life, is hidden. The post-truth is the madness of the global dump, its suicidal will. The post-truth is the will of infertility denying the highest creative freedom of the world through simulacres, semblance, illusions, fakes, brazen lies.

References:

1. Gegel’ G.V.F. Entsiklopediya filosofskikh nauk. Nauka logiki [Encyclopedia of Philosophical Sciences. Science of Logic]. Moscow, Mysl’, 1974, p. 108.

DOI: https://doi.org/10.33917/es-6.186.2022.4-5

DOI: https://doi.org/10.33917/es-6.186.2022.16-25

Forecasting the ruble exchange dynamics appears objectively necessary for shaping both the medium-term financial strategy of industry corporations and the general strategic course for occupying leading positions in sectors of business interest, including through the use of new financial instruments, new markets and, in general, a system of strategic planning of socio-economic development of Russia. However, in today’s realities, according to most experts, with whom we cannot but agree, the task of forecasting seems extremely difficult and appears complicated by the fact that the launched crises are unpredictable and are characterized by a diverse nature (pandemic and geopolitical crises, expansion of trade wars and sanctions). In such conditions, when uncertainty grows excessively, it is important to turn to the accumulated experience: to analyze to what extent the available models can be suitable for prospective assessments in the current environment.

References:

1. Kuranov G.O. Metodicheskie voprosy kratkosrochnoi otsenki i prognoza makroekonomicheskikh pokazatelei [Methodological Issues of Short-Term Assessment and Forecast of Macroeconomic Indicators]. Voprosy statistiki, 2018, no 25(2), pp. 3–24.

2. Frenkel’ A.A., Volkova N.N., Surkov A.A., Romanyuk E.I. Sravnitel’nyi analiz modifitsirovannykh metodov Greindzhera — Ramanatkhana i Beitsa — Greindzhera dlya postroeniya ob”edinennogo prognoza dinamiki ekonomicheskikh pokazatelei [Comparative Analysis of Modified Granger-Ramanathan and Bates-Granger Methods for Developing a Combined Forecast of Economic Indicators Dynamics]. Voprosy statistiki, 2019, no 26(8), pp. 14–27.

3. Shirov A.A. Makrostrukturnyi analiz i prognozirovanie v sovremennykh usloviyakh razvitiya ekonomiki [Macrostructural Analysis and Forecasting under Current Conditions of Economic Development]. Problemy prognozirovaniya, 2022, no 5, pp. 43–57.

4. Dmitrieva M.V., Suetin S.N. Modelirovanie dinamiki ravnovesnykh valyutnykh kursov [Simulating the Dynamics of Equilibrium Exchange Rates]. Vestnik KIGIT, 2012, no 12–2(30), pp. 061–064.

5. Linkevich E.F. Mirovaya valyutnaya sistema: poliinstrumental’nyi standart [World Monetary System: Polyinstrumental Standard]. Krasnodar, 2014, pp. 82–91.

6. Ageev A.I., Loginov E.L. Izmenenie strategii operirovaniya dollarom: zapusk SShA novogo kreditno-investitsionnogo tsikla vo vzaimosvyazi s valyutnymi voinami [Changing the Strategy of Dollar Handling: US Launch of New Credit-Investment Cycle in Association with the Currency Wars]. Ekonomicheskie strategii, 2015, no 3(129), pp. 20–35.

7. Fedorova E.A., Lazarev M.P. Vliyanie tseny na neft’ na finansovyi rynok Rossii v krizisnyi period [Impact of Oil Prices on the Financial Market of Russia During the Crisis]. Finansy i kredit, 2014, № 20(596), pp. 14–22.

8. Kuz’min A.Yu. Valyutnye kursy: v poiskakh strategicheskogo ravnovesiya [Exchange Rates: in Search of Strategic Equilibrium]. Ekonomicheskie strategii, 2018, no 1, pp. 82–91.

DOI: https://doi.org/10.33917/es-6.186.2022.26-29

Sanctions against the Russian Federation have created fundamentally new conditions for the functioning of the Russian economy.

This poses new challenges, which require government spendings increase. It appears that Russian regulators have unused mechanisms, the use of which will provide the economy with new money, without complicating the situation of other sectors. The article suggests mechanisms that highlights internal sources of liquidity formation for the economy. In the environment of sanctions, such mechanisms also increase the independence of monetary policy from external constraints.

References:

1. Kommentarii Banka Rossii po operatsiyam na rynke gosudarstvennogo dolga [Bank of Russia’s Commentary on Operations in the Government Debt Market]. Bank of Russia, 2022, 18 marta, available at: http://www.cbr.ru/eng/press/event/?id=12763.

2. TsB RF [Central Bank of the Russian Federation]. Obzor riskov finansovykh rynkov, 2022, no 2–3(60–61), fevral’-mart.

3. Bank Rossii. Osnovnye napravleniya edinoi gosudarstvennoi denezhno-kreditnoi politiki na 2023 god i period 2024 i 2025 godov: Proekt ot 11 avgusta 2022 g. [Bank of Russia. Guidelines for the Single State Monetary Policy for 2023 and the Period of 2024 and 2025: the Draft of August 11, 2022]. Bank Rossii, pp. 24–25, available at: https://cbr.ru/about_br/publ/ondkp/on_2023_2025/

4. Ershov M.V. Kakaya ekonomicheskaya politika nuzhna Rossii v usloviyakh sanktsii? [What Kind of Economic Policy does Russia Need in the Face of Sanctions?]. Voprosy ekonomiki, 2014, no 12, pp. 37–53.

DOI: https://doi.org/10.33917/es-6.186.2022.30-35

Changing of a conjuncture index of “Economic strategy” (CIES) for nine months of 2020 is considered. The contribution of indicators of supply and demand in CIES is estimated. The analysis of industrial production is carried out.

References:

1. Sotsial’no-ekonomicheskoe polozhenie Rossii v yanvare — sentyabre 2022 goda [Socio-economic Situation in Russia in January — September 2022]. Federal’naya sluzhba gosudarstvennoi statistiki, available at: https://rosstat.gov.ru/storage/mediabank/osn-09-2022.pdf.

2. Frenkel’ A.A., Tikhomirov B.I., Surkov A.A. Yanvar’ — mai 2022 goda: Rossiya v usloviyakh tormozheniya sotsial’no-ekonomicheskogo razvitiya [2022, January — May: Russia in the Context of Slowing Down Socio-economic Development]. Ekonomicheskie strategii, 2022, vol. 24, no 4, pp. 90–95, DOI: https://doi.org/10.33917/es-4.184.2022.90-95.

3. Informatsiya o soveshchanii Prezidenta RF s chlenami Pravitel’stva RF 16 noyabrya 2022 g. v rezhime videokonferentsii [Information on the Meeting of the President of the Russian Federation with Members of the RF Government on November 16, 2022 Via Videoconference]. Ofitsial’nyi sait Prezidenta RF, available at: http://kremlin.ru/events/president/news/69847.

4. Prognoz sotsial’no-ekonomicheskogo razvitiya Rossiiskoi Federatsii na 2023 god i na planovyi period 2024 i 2025 godov [Forecast of the Socio-economic Development of the Russian Federation for 2023 and for the Scheduled Period of 2024 and 2025]. Ministerstvo ekonomicheskogo razvitiya RF, 2022, 28 sentyabrya, available at: https://economy.gov.ru/material/file/ea2fd3ce38f2e28d51c312acf2be0917/prognoz_socialno_ekonom_razvitiya_rf_2023-2025.pdf.

5. Informatsiya o Plenarnom zasedanii Peterburgskogo mezhdunarodnogo ekonomicheskogo foruma s uchastiem Prezidenta RF 17 iyunya 2022 g. [Information on the Plenary Meeting of the St. Petersburg International Economic Forum with Participation of the President of the Russian Federation on June 17, 2022]. Ofitsial’nyi sait Prezidenta RF, available at: kremlin.ru/events/president/news/68669.

DOI: https://doi.org/10.33917/es-6.186.2022.38-51

The present paper follows up an earlier study on modeling and assessing the national strength of the world countries. This integral index is the most informative and popular indicator in the world that characterizes the aggregate potential of a particular country and at the same time makes it possible to compare the level of its power and socio-economic development with similar indicators of other states.

In the past national strength calculations were carried out by well-known political figures, such as foreign policy strategist and director (from 1975 to 2013) of the main Office of Net Assessment (ONA) of the US Department of Defence, Andrew Marshall [1], founder of political realism, Nicholas John Spekeman [2], one of the leading US foreign policy experts, Hans Morgenthau [3], founder of neorealism theory Kenneth Neil Waltz [4], author of the theory of offensive realism John Mearsheimer [5] and others. To date, dozens of methods for assessing national strength have been developed, the first of which was put forward in 1741. In the article first of all we’ll consider the most well-known foreign results and then present our own ones. In our opinion, it is important to make calculations of the integral indicator of national strength on an ongoing basis, as well as to compare our country’s potential with alternative estimates of analytical centers of geopolitical opponents.

References:

1. Marshall A.W. A Program to Improve Analytic Methods related to Strategic Forces. Policy Sciences, 1982, no 15(1), pp. 47–50, DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/BF00143367.

2. Spykman N.J. America’s Strategy in World Politics: The United States and the Balance of Power (1942; reprint, Hamden, CT: Archon Books, 1970).

3. Morgenthau H.J. Politics among Nations: The Struggle for Power and Peace, 2nd edition. New York: Alfred A. Knopf, 1954.

4. Waltz K.H. Theory of International Politics. Addison-Wesley Publishing Company, 1979.

5. Mearsheimer J.J. The Tragedy of Great Power Politics. N.Y., L., W.W. Norton & Company, 2001.

6. Correlates of War, available at: https://correlatesofwar.org.

7. Power. U.S. News & World Report, available at: https://www.usnews.com/news/best-countries/rankings/power.

8. Methodology: How the 2022 Best Countries Were Ranked. U.S. News & World Report, available at: https://www.usnews.com/news/best-countries/articles/methodology.

9. Most Powerful Countries 2022. World Population Review, available at: https://worldpopulationreview.com/country-rankings/most-powerful-countries.

10. About WPI. The World Power Index, available at: https://www.worldpowerindex.com/about-world-power-index/

11. Past Years. Lowy Institute Asia Power Index, available at: https://power.lowyinstitute.org/data/power.

12. What is Power. Lowy Institute Asia Power Index, available at: https://power.lowyinstitute.org/methodology/

13. Moyer J.D., Markle A. Relative national power codebook, version 7.2.2018. Denver, CO: Frederick S. Pardee Center for International Futures, Josef Korbel School of International Studies, University of Denver, 2018.

DOI: https://doi.org/10.33917/es-6.186.2022.52-65

“The world will never be the same again,” says the overwhelming majority of socially active Russians, referring to the “old world” as the planetary community until February 24, 2022. At the same time, the most rapid, cardinal, unmistakably projected transformations are announced as crucial tasks for Russia all Russian life support systems and accelerated modernization. The most important of them, according to the authors of the article, is the logistics project proposed in 2006 by Academicians of the Russian Academy of Sciences V.A. Sadovnichim and G.V. Osipov, which in the new edition is presented in the article as “United Eurasia – Transsib 2.0”. It is based on the concept of the spatial economy, which is made up of transnational megaprojects that have been successfully implemented over the past 70 years.

“United Eurasia — Transsib 2.0” at the initial stage is intended to overcome the attempts of Europe and the United States to implement a transport blockade of the Russian Federation. Such a blockade could hinder the development of our country, which would lead to a decrease in the living standards of the population and, as Russia’s enemies suggest, corrosion of national unity and consolidation of the masses with power structures after the start of the military operation to liberate Donbass. In the future, after the successful solution of the Russian transport problems proper, the proposed logistics project can successfully develop as a transcontinental one, linking different regions of the world along new economically and politically promising vectors and directions. In particular, we can talk about pairing with the Chinese logistics corridor “Silk Road”, to counter which at the June G7 summit in South Bavaria, the countries of the “golden billion” proposed to allocate unprecedented investments of 0 billion.

The article contains a list of the main threats to the Russian Federation, consisting of 10 points, and a summary of their prompt relief with subsequent complete elimination. The technology for the implementation of the megaproject “United Eurasia — Transsib 2.0” has been prescribed — along with budgetary financing of the new Transsib, it is planned to attract investments from the regional budgets of those entities through which the proposed route will pass, as well as to co-finance the capital of private investors and issue marketable “Trans-Siberian” loan bonds.

Obviously, after conducting a special military operation in Ukraine, Russia will have to equip its Eurasian space between Europe and East Asia in the shortest possible time in the neighborhood of five civilizations — Christian, Muslim, Hindu, Shinto and Buddhist — so that it can finally become a territory of safe solidarity development.