DOI: https://doi.org/10.33917/es-4.184.2022.6-16

The risks of increasing international tension have sharply exacerbated the possibility of a nuclear conflict. The main geopolitical players in the international arena have actually recognized the possibility and even expediency of using nuclear weapons. In this context, the need to simulate the consequences of a nuclear strike in order to prepare for emergencies of a critical nature has become extremely urgent. The present article analyzes foreign experience of using digital simulators to this end. The authors outline Russian views on applying agent-based simulation methods for this purpose in the analysis of non-military (civilian) aspects of a nuclear blow effects.

Источники:

1. Grabchak E.P., Loginov E.L. Podgotovka sistemy gosudarstvennogo upravleniya Rossii k sverkhkriticheskim situatsiyam prirodnogo i tekhnogennogo kharaktera [Preparing the Public Administration System of Russia for Supercritical Situations of Natural and Man-made Nature]. Problemy upravleniya bezopasnost’yu slozhnykh sistem: Materialy XXIX Mezhdunarodnoi nauchno-prakticheskoi konferentsii. Moskva, 15 dekabrya 2021 g. [Problems of Safety Management of Complex Systems: Proceedings of the XXIX International Scientific-practical Conference. Moscow, December 15, 2021]. Moscow, Institut problem upravleniya im. V.A. Trapeznikova RAN, pp. 99–103.

2. Ageev A.I., Bochkarev O.I., Grabchak E.P., Loginov E.L. Setetsentricheskaya sistema povyshennoi zhivuchesti upravleniya energetikoi Rossii v slozhnoprognoziruemykh kriticheskikh usloviyakh [Net-Centric System of Elevated Survivability of Energy Management in Russia Under Difficult-to-predict Critical Conditions]. Ekonomicheskie strategii, 2021, vol. 23, no 3 (177), pp. 6–17, available at: DOI: https://doi.org/10.33917/es-3.177.2021.6-17.

3. Moiseev N.N., Aleksandrov V.V., Tarko A.M. Chelovek i biosfera: Opyt sistemnogo analiza i eksperimenty s modelyami [Man and the Biosphere: The Experience of System Analysis and Experiments with Models]. Moscow, Nauka, 1985, 271 p.

4. Yadernaya zima i ee komp’yuternoe modelirovanie v 80-kh [Nuclear Winter and Its Computer Simulation in the 80s]. Khabr, 2022, May, 28, available at: https://habr.com/ru/company/ruvds/blog/668256/

5. Turco R.P., Toon O.B., Ackerman T.P., Pollack J.B., Sagan C. Nuclear winter: Global consequences of multiple nuclear explosions, 1984.

6. Kokoshin A.A., Arbatov A.G., Vasil’ev A.A. Yadernoe oruzhie i strategicheskaya stabil’nost’ (stat’ya pervaya) [Nuclear Weapons and Strategic Stability (Article One)]. SShA: Ekonomika, politika, ideologiya, 1987, no 9, p. 3.

7. John M. Gates. The U.S. Army and Irregular Warfare. The College of Wooster Wooster, Ohio, available at: https://discover.wooster.edu/jgates/files/2011/11/fullbook.pdf.

8. Starr S. Deadly Climate Change From Nuclear War: A threat to human existence, available at: https://www.armscontrol.ru/pubs/en/deadly-climate-changefromnuclear-war.pdf.

9. Velikhov E., Kokoshin A. Yadernoe oruzhie i dilemmy mezhdunarodnoi bezopasnosti [Nuclear Weapons and International Security Dilemmas]. Mirovaya ekonomika i mezhdunarodnye otnosheniya, 1985, no 4, p. 20.

DOI: https://doi.org/10.33917/es-4.184.2022.17-21

The article emphasizes that freezing of Russian gold and foreign exchange reserves was previously accurately predicted by Russian experts. Attention is drawn to the fact that weakening of the ruble was one of the goals of the sanctions impact on the Russian economy that Western countries were bearing in mind. It is obvious that the exact opposite — preventing its depreciation and turning the ruble into a stable strong currency — is an anti-sanction measure. With high dependence of the Russian economy on imports, as well as in the situation when it is necessary to find alternative ways for imports (primarily for investment), which will lead to their higher prices with corresponding consequences, an excessive exchange rate depreciation may adversely affect economic development, especially in a long term. In addition, extremely important is ensuring stability of the exchange rate. It is concluded that stable and non-depreciating ruble will form the basis for consistent development of business and expand the possibilities for using the ruble in foreign trade settlements as well. It is particularly relevant in the context of restrictions on the use of leading currencies in foreign trade.

Источники:

1. Ershov M.V. Sanktsii protiv RF: mekhanizmy neitralizatsii [Sanctions Against the Russian Federation: Neutralization Mechanisms]. Ekonomicheskie strategii, 2017, no 7, pp. 46–51.

2. Baiden ogovorilsya, zayaviv, chto dollar stoit 200 rublei [Biden Made a Slip of the Tongue Saying That the Dollar is Worth 200 Rubles]. RIA Novosti, 2022, March, 26, available at: https://ria.ru/20220326/bayden-1780271172.html.

3. Sanktsii SShA protiv TsB i Minfina perekroyut dostup k rezervam dlya podderzhki rublya [US Sanctions Against the Central Bank and the Ministry of Finance will Block Access to Reserves for Supporting the Ruble]. Interfaks, 2022, February, 28, available at: https://www.interfax.ru/business/825191.

4. Bank Rossii. O chem govoryat trendy [Bank of Russia. What are the Trends Saying?]. BCS Express, 2022, April, 22, available at: https://bcs-express.ru/novosti-i-analitika/bank-rossii-o-chem-govoriat-trendy.

5. SMI: EK zayavila, chto ukaz ob oplate gaza v rublyakh narushaet sanktsii ES [Media: EC Said That the Decree on Gas Payments in Rubles Violates EU Sanctions]. RIA Novosti, 2022, April, 14, available at: https://ria.ru/20220414/gaz-1783434893.html.

6. Russia’s ruble is the strongest currency in the world this year. CBS NEWS, 2022, May, 27, available at: https://www.cbsnews.com/news/russia-rublecurrency-2022/

7. Ershov M.V. Valyutnaya politika kak faktor natsional’noi bezopasnosti [Monetary Policy as National Security Factor]. Ekonomicheskie strategii, 2015, no 4, pp. 20–29.

8. Washington Times. 2015, April, 30.

9. Ershov M.V. Ekonomicheskii suverenitet Rossii v global’noi ekonomike [Russia’s Economic Sovereignty in the Global Economy]. Moscow, Ekonomika, 2005, 280 p.

10. BIS. Quarterly Review. International banking and financial market developments. June 2022.

DOI: https://doi.org/10.33917/es-4.184.2022.28-35

In the proposed material, the author draws attention to the fact that in the conditions of recent forced reputational losses for Russia, the problem of forming an attractive national image becomes extremely relevant. The author examines the position of Russia in the field of national image in comparison with a number of foreign states. Based on the approaches of the theoretical founder and leader of country branding, S. Anholt, the author reviews the state of affairs in various spheres of Russian life, and concludes that the most promising areas for the formation of a new positive image of Russia are the sphere of culture and the tourism industry.

Источники:

1. Nye J. Bound to Lead: The Changing Nature of American Power. New York, Basic Books, 1990.

2. Nye J. Soft Power: The Means to Success in World Politics. New York, Public Affairs Group, 2004.

3. Russkie v Amerike. Kniga sudeb [Russians in America. Book of Fates].Comp. V. Levin. Minsk, Smolensk, 1996, p. 190.

4. Kotler Ph., Haider D.H., Rein I.J. Marketing Places: Attracting Investment, Industry, and Tourism to Cities, States and Nations. Free Press, 1993.

5. Ward S.V., Ward S. Selling Places: The Marketing and Promotion of Towns and Cities. 1850–2000. Taylor & Francis, 1998.

6. Anholt S. Places: Identity, Image and Reputation. London, Palgrave Macmillan, 2009.

7. Germany maintains top “nation brand” ranking, Canada and Japan overtake the UK to round out the top three. Ipsos, available at: https://www.ipsos.com/en/nation-brands-index-2021.

8. The Good Country Index, available at: https://index.goodcountry.org/

9. The Good Country Equation: How We Can Repair the World in One Generation. Berrett-Koehler, 2020.

10. Saimon Ankhol’t: Problema Rossii v tom, chto ee schitayut obuzoi [Simon Anholt: Russia’s Problem is That it is Considered a Burden]. SNOB, available at: https://snob.ru/selected/entry/56182/

11. Otchet o rezul’tatakh ekspertno-analiticheskogo meropriyatiya “Opredelenie osnovnykh prichin, sderzhivayushchikh nauchnoe razvitie v Rossiiskoi Federatsii: otsenka nauchnoi infrastruktury, dostatochnost’ motivatsionnykh mer, obespechenie privlekatel’nosti raboty vedushchikh uchenykh” [Report on Results of the Expert-analytical Event “Identification of the Main Reasons Hindering Scientific Development in the Russian Federation: Assessment of the Scientific Infrastructure, Sufficiency of Motivational Measures, Provision of Attractiveness of the Leading Scientists’ Work”]. FGOSVO, available at:  https://fgosvo.ru/uploadfiles/Work_materials_disscusion/sp.pdf.

12. Muzychuk V.Yu. Finansirovanie kul’tury v Rossii: shag vpered i dva nazad [Financing Culture in Russia: One Step Forward and Two Steps Back]. Zhurnal NEA, 2019, no 1(41), pp. 208–215.

13. Governance Index: World Map. SOLABILITY, available at: https://solability.com/the-global-sustainable-competitiveness-index/the-index/governance-capital.

14. Reiting turisticheskikh stran [Rating of Tourist Countries]. TouristicLog, available at: http://www.alexeytour.ru/strany_mira_tour-rating.html.

DOI: https://doi.org/10.33917/es-4.184.2022.46-55

World trend of the XXI century — Industry 4.0 and digital platforms. In 2014, General Electric (GE) partnered with Big Tech giants — AT&T, Cisco, IBM and Intel — to take control of the global manufacturing industry created the Industrial Internet Contributors Association (Industry IoT Consortium IIC). By 2021, the IIC included Microsoft, Hewlett-Packard, Accenture, Huawei, Bosch, EMC, SAP, Siemens, SAS and others. GE together with BigTech created the industrial cloud platform Predix, declaring it to be practically an “operating system” for factories, analogous to Android or iOS in the world of machines, the language of the industrial Internet.

However, in 2020 GE and Predix suffered a devastating fiasco.

The article provides an analysis of the root causes and problems, and formulates the requirements for digital platforms of industrial software. The author describes alternative solutions and new principles for implementing digital transformation of Industry 4.0 based on the closing technologies of digital genesis, graph-centric platforms, tools, models and systems of collective conscious scientifically based balanced management (industrial, corporate, social, state). Closing technologies offered by Russia have got an enormous social and political resource.

DOI: https://doi.org/10.33917/es-4.184.2022.56-69

The world has been scared by the collapse of the dollar many times. So far, fears of a global economic collapse, associated with the fate of the dollar, have been greatly exaggerated. However, there are no significant guarantees that this will not happen under certain conditions. Variants of the Atlantic-planned collapse of the dollar with its replacement by a synthetic financial instrument o r digital currency, somehow similar to bitcoin, are possible. COVID-19 has further revealed this problem. Russia needs to abandon its illusions and to be ready to ensure the economic stability of political regime in a special period as manifestation of the world monetary and economic war of all against all at a certain stage of the catastrophe, while waiting for the main actors to agree on joint actions. At the same time, among our geopolitical competing partners, there are a lot of those who want by all means to solve their economic and other problems at the expense of Russia. Therefore,  macroeconomic measures that Russia will have to take in case of a global dollar collapse are very likely to be more severe than the scenario that the authors formulated in this article.

Источники:

1. Makarov V.L., Bakhtizin A.R., Il’in N.I., Sushko E.D. Natsional’naya bezopasnost’ Rossii [National Security of Russia]. Ekonomicheskie strategii, 2020, no 5, pp. 6–23, available at: DOI: 10.33917/es-5.171.2020.6-23.

2. Ageev A.I., Loginov E.L. Coronavirus superstrategy: mirovaya proektsiya finansovoi modeli catastrophe just-in-time dlya vykhoda iz krizisa na novuyu geoekonomicheskuyu normal’nost’ [Coronavirus Superstrategy: Global Projection of the “Just-in-time Catastrophe’s” Financial Model for Overcoming the Crisis and Entering into a New Geo-Economic Normality]. Ekonomicheskie strategii, 2020, no 4, pp. 6–19, available at: DOI: 10.33917/es-4.170.2020.6-19.

3. Na poroge monetarnoi kul’minatsii [On the Brink of a Monetary Climax]. Livejournal, Spydell, 2021, August, 25, available at: https://spydell.livejournal.com/699002.html.

4. Fiskal’nyi ad [Fiscal Hell]. Livejournal, Spydell, 2021, April, 21, available at: https://spydell.livejournal.com/698446.html.

5. Ageev A.I., Loginov E.L. New Deal – 2008 — “novaya sdacha”. Bludnye ucheniki Franklina Ruzvel’ta [“New Deal” – 2008. Lost Followers of Franklin Roosevelt]. Ekonomicheskie strategii, 2009, no 2, pp. 30–37

6. Ageev A.I., Loginov E.L. Formirovanie novoi modeli valyutno-finansovoi politiki pri upravlenii natsional’nymi zolotovalyutnymi rezervami Rossii [Forming a New Model of Monetary Policy while Managing the National Foreign Exchange Reserves of Russia]. Ekonomicheskie strategii, 2016,

no 3, no 8–15.

7. Ageev A.I., Loginov E.L. Institutsional’nye mekhanizmy snizheniya mul’tifaktornykh riskov dlya valyutno-finansovoi sistemy Rossii i EAES v usloviyakh nelineinoi ekonomicheskoi dinamiki [Institutional Mechanisms for Reducing Multifactor Risks for Monetary-financial System of Russia and the EAEU in the Context of Nonlinear Economic Dynamics]. Monografiya. Moscow, Institut ekonomicheskikh strategii, 2017.

DOI: https://doi.org/10.33917/es-4.184.2022.70-81

The article is devoted to the study of poverty and inequality in the economic growth of the most developed countries, with a general focus on the formation of social policy consistent with the growth policy. The purpose of the study is to conduct a macroeconomic analysis of poverty, inequality and wealth in the G7 countries, China and Russia, with the ensuing substantiation of a social development strategy for the Russian economy. The methodology is made up of empirical analysis, as well as regression modeling, which make it possible to identify in a comparative way the connectivity of the dynamics of relevant indicators of social development  — the level of national poverty and wealth, the Gini coefficient and general inequality, growth rate, human development index. The result of the study is a precisely confirmed empirical relationship between the level of poverty and inequality for the countries considered, that is, a high value of one parameter corresponds to a high value of another. Consequently, poverty reduction may imply a reduction in inequality, and not only relative, but also absolute. In addition, it was found that for developed countries, high levels of poverty and inequality mean low values of the human development index. Social policy aimed at human development requires that its instruments be harmonized, including the necessary alignment with the current macroeconomic policies to stimulate growth. The magnitude of national wealth does not guarantee high growth rates, as well as low levels of inequality and poverty. A high level of inequality can accompany economic growth, having a positive effect on the growth rate, as for the Russian economy. In this regard, the current policy needs a reasonable selection of measures to stimulate growth and, at the same time, measures to reduce inequality, which can and should not be limited only to tax changes that require special confirmation of influence, but to institutional changes that regulate the creation and appropriation of income.

Источники:

1. Aganbegyan A.G. Kak preodolet’ stagnatsiyu i novyi krizis, obespechiv sotsial’no-ekonomicheskii rost [How to Overcome Stagnation and New Crisis, Providing Socio-Economic Growth]. Ekonomicheskie strategii, 2020, vol. 22, no 5, pp. 34–45, DOI: 10.33917/es-5.171.2020.34-45; no 6, pp. 6–19, DOI: 10.33917/es-6.172.2020.6-19.

2. Adzhimoglu D., Robinson Dzh.A. Pochemu odni strany bogatye, a drugie bednye. Proiskhozhdenie vlasti, protsvetaniya i nishchety [Why Some Countries are Rich and Others are Poor. The Origin of Power, Prosperity and Poverty]. Moscow, AST, 2016, 693 p.

3. Livshits V.N. Bednost’ i neravenstvo dokhodov naseleniya v Rossii i za rubezhom [Poverty and Inequality of the Population Incomes in Russia and Abroad]. Moscow, IE RAN, 2017, 52 p.

4. Stiglits Dzh. Tsena neravenstva. Chem rassloenie obshchestva grozit nashemu budushchemu? [The Cost of Inequality. How does Social Stratification Threaten Our Future?]. Moscow, Eksmo, 2015, 512 p.

DOI: https://doi.org/10.33917/es-4.184.2022.82-89

Bread and bakery products are among the basic foods in Russia. Among the subjects of the Russian Federation 23 regions have seen an increase in the consumption of bread products in 2017–2020, leaders in consumption growth became the Astrakhan region, Republic of Ingushetia, the Chechen Republic and the Krasnodar Territory. These regions traditionally have a high consumption of bread products (10–19% higher than the Russian average). In addition, in the above North Caucasian regions, as well as in the Astrakhan region, in 2017–2020 Rosstat have recorded one of the lowest per capita monetary incomes of the population (30–53% lower than the average for the Russian Federation). In 2018– 2020 consumption of bread products in the Russian Federation was at the level of 116 kg per person a year, which is 20 kg or 21% higher than the recommended norm. Thus, resulting from a decline in revenues, the population switches from consumption of more expensive products to cheaper ones, saving on the purchase of meat, vegetables and fruit. Studies in this area have shown that bread products and vegetable oil in terms of kilocalories per ruble of costs stand in the first place, sugar and confectionery are in the second and potatoes are in the third place. The quality of the Russian consumer basket is the success of the nation’s longevity.

DOI: https://doi.org/10.33917/es-4.184.2022.90-95

Changing of a conjuncture index of “Economic strategy” (CIES) for five months of 2022 is considered. The contribution of indicators of supply and demand in CIES is estimated. The analysis of industrial production is carried out.

Источники:

1. Sotsial’no-ekonomicheskoe polozhenie Rossii v yanvare — mae 2022 goda: Doklad [Socio-Economic Situation in Russia in January-May 2022: Report]. Federal’naya sluzhba gosudarstvennoi statistiki, available at: https://rosstat.gov.ru/storage/mediabank/osn-05-2022.pdf.

2. Osnovnye parametry stsenarnykh uslovii prognoza sotsial’no-ekonomicheskogo razvitiya Rossiiskoi Federatsii na 2023 god i na planovyi period 2024 i 2025 godov [Main Parameters of the Scenario Conditions for Forecasting Socio-economic Development of the Russian Federation for 2023 and for the Planned Period of 2024 and 2025]. Ministerstvo ekonomicheskogo razvitiya RF, available at: https://www.economy.gov.ru/material/file/c56d9cd0365715292055fe5930854d59/scenarnye_usloviya_2023.pdf.

3. Informatsiya o Plenarnom zasedanii Peterburgskogo mezhdunarodnogo ekonomicheskogo foruma s uchastiem Prezidenta RF 17 iyunya 2022 g. [Information on the Plenary Meeting of the St. Petersburg International Economic Forum with Participation of the President of the Russian Federation on June 17, 2022]. Ofitsial’nyi sait Prezidenta RF, available at: kremlin.ru/events/president/news/68669.

4. Frenkel’ A.A., Tikhomirov B.I., Surkov A.A. 2021: stagflyatsiya ili tekhnologicheskii suverenitet — inogo ne dano! [2021: Stagflation or Technological Sovereignty — No Other Choice!]. Ekonomicheskie strategii, 2022, no 2, pp. 86–91, DOI: 10.33917/es-2.182.2022.86-91.

DOI: https://doi.org/10.33917/es-4.184.2022.100-105

The Gulf of Guinea is one of the most productive fishing areas in the ocean, which has attracted the attention of many external actors. The article considers the feasibility of cooperation between Russia and the member countries of the Fisheries Committee for the West Central Gulf of Guinea (FCWC) in the field of fisheries and aquaculture, as today Russian companies operate mainly to the north, in the waters of Morocco and Mauritania. The results of the analysis of the FCWC 2021-2030 Strategic Action Plan reveal the directions of maritime activities in the countries, the nature of external donors’ participation in the implementation of the project and the possibility of Russia’s inclusion. A conclusion is made about the prospects of russian investments in the development of fisheries and aquaculture in the region.

DOI: https://doi.org/10.33917/es-4.184.2022.106-112

The article analyses the investment attractiveness of the Russian energy sector for foreign investors. Analysis is based on such indicators as the volume of energy resources’ production and export as well as their dynamics, foreign direct investment in the country’s energy industry, portfolio investment in the “green” energy industry. The author draws up a conclusion that despite the exports decrease in the main types of energy resources (oil, gas, coal, energy) over the past few years (2020–2021), Russia continues to play a leading role in the global fuel and energy complex, the volume of foreign direct investment in industry is steadily growing, the “green” energy industry is actively developing. The author also dwells on the difficulties that foreign investors have to face when investing in the Russian energy sector. The present study results in identifying the main directions for improving investment attractiveness of the Russian energy sector for potential foreign investors.

Источники:

1. Lizikova M. Nuclear energy prospects and legal challenges towards achieving sustainable development goals. E3S Web of Conferences, 2020, no 1, p. 02009.

2. Baisaeva M.U. Rol’ i znachenie inostrannykh investitsii v Rossii [Role and Importance of Foreign Investments in Russia]. Ekonomist”, 2020, no 1, pp. 80–82.

3. Vypkhanova G.V., Zhavoronkova N.G. Innovatsii v energetike — organizatsionno-pravovye aspekty [Innovations in the Energy Sector — Organizational and Legal Aspects]. Aktual’nye problemy rossiiskogo prava, 2021, vol. 16, no 1 (122), pp. 189–203.

4. Tsentral’nyi bank Rossiiskoi Federatsii [Central Bank of the Russian Federation], available at: https://www.cbr.ru/

5. Obzor energetiki stran BRIKS [Overview of the BRICS Countries Energy]. Sammit BRICS, 2020, November, 17, available at: https://brics-russia2020.ru/images/114/89/1148936.pdf.

6. Balafas V., Fakiolas E.T. From energy security to energy dominance: US’ blending of politics and economics. Strategic Analysis, 2020, no 44 (2), pp. 91–105.

7. Inevatova O.A., Matushkin E.F. Problemy i perspektivy ispol’zovaniya kapital’nykh vlozhenii v energetike [Problems and Prospects of Using Capital Investments in the Energy Industry]. Tendentsii razvitiya nauki i obrazovaniya, 2021, no 69-2, pp. 21–24.

8. Nagimova A. Arabskie investitsii v rossiiskuyu infrastrukturu [Arab Investments in Russian Infrastructure]. Mirovaya ekonomika i mezhdunarodnye otnosheniya, 2020, vol. 64, no 3, pp. 80–87.

9. Eksport Rossiiskoi Federatsiei prirodnogo gaza (po dannym FTS i Rosstat) [Export of Natural Gas by the Russian Federation (According to the Federal Customs Service and Rosstat)]. Tsentral’nyi bank RF, available at: https://cbr.ru/vfs/statistics/credit_statistics/trade/gas.xls.

10. Ministerstvo energetiki Rossiiskoi Federatsii [Ministry of Energy of the Russian Federation], available at: https://minenergo.gov.ru/

11. Pryamye investitsii po sektoram ekonomiki [Direct Investments by Sectors of the Economy]. Tsentral’nyi bank RF, available at: https://cbr.ru/statistics/macro_itm/svs/