DOI: 10.33917/es-3.189.2023.6-15

Key parameters of attacks directions on the Russian economy and forecasts of the expected results, which previously have inspired confidence in Western states that political regime would inevitability fall, which stimulated the US and EU sanctions activity, were developed by a number of authoritative Western expert structures. Western strategies for collapsing the Russian economy in 2022–2023 with the help of sanctions, formed on the basis of these forecasts, did not bring the desired result. At the same time, alternative forecasts of a group of Russian scientists from the CEMI RAS and their Chinese colleagues on stability of the economies of Russia and China in the event of a friendly policy in the context of trade wars with the US and the EU, made in 2019, were fully confirmed. At the core of these forecasts there are analytical tools based on agent modeling.

References:

1. Ageev A.I., Loginov E.L. Mirovoe soobshchestvo v usloviyakh sverkhkriticheskoi bifurkatsii Upravlenie slozhnymi organizatsionnymi i tekhnicheskimi sistemami v usloviyakh sverkhkriticheskikh situatsii: Materialy mezhdunarodnoi nauchno-prakticheskoi konferentsii [World Community in Conditions of Supercritical Bifurcation: Management of Complex Organizational and Technical Systems in Conditions of Supercritical Situations: Proceedings of the international scientific and practical conference]. Moscow, INES, 2022, pp. 9–12.

2. Ageev A.I., Loginov E.L. Novaya bol’shaya voina: khroniki khorosho zabytogo budushchego [New Large-Scale War: Chronicles of Well Forgotten Future]. Ekonomicheskie strategii, 2014, vol. 16, no 6–7(122–123), pp. 16–33.

3. Makarov V.L., Vu Ts., Vu Z., Khabriev B.R., Bakhtizin A.R. Mirovye torgovye voiny: stsenarnye raschety posledstvii [World Trade Wars: Scenario Calculations of Consequences]. Vestnik Rossiiskoi akademii nauk, 2020, vol. 90, no 2, pp. 169–179.

4. Makarov V.L., Vu Ts., Vu Z., Khabriev B.R., Bakhtizin A.R. Sovremennye instrumenty otsenki posledstvii mirovykh torgovykh voin [Modern Tools for Assessing the Effects of World Trade Wars]. Vestnik Rossiiskoi akademii nauk, 2019, vol. 89, no 7, pp. 745–754.

5. Tsigas M., McDaniel C., Schropp S., Mahlstein K. Potential economic effects of sanctions on Russia: An Allied trade embargo. Voxeu.org, 2022, available at: https://voxeu.org/article/potential-economic-effects-allied-trade-embargo-russia.

6. Mahlstein K., McDaniel C., Schropp S., Tsigas M. Estimating the economic effects of sanctions on Russia: An Allied trade embargo. The World Economy, 2022, no 45, pp. 3344–3383, available at: https://doi.org/10.1111/twec.13311.

7. Bryan R., Johnson G., Sytsma T., Priebe M. Does the U.S. Economy Benefit from U.S. Alliances and Forward Military Presence? Santa Monica, CA: RAND Corporation, 2022, available at: https://www.rand.org/pubs/research_reports/RRA739-5.

8. Bolhuis A. Marijn, Jiaqian Chen, Benjamin Kett. Fragmentation in Global Trade: Accounting for Commodities. IMF Working Paper. 2023. No. WP 23/73.

DOI: 10.33917/es-2.188.2023.36-43

The article analyzes historical development of the Russian-Turkmenistan relations. Multi-vector nature and flexibility in the development of a strategic partnership with Turkmenistan is substantiated. The author concludes that Russian-Turkmenistan relations should not be limited only to cooperation in the gas sector, but should develop dynamically towards formation of transport and logistics corridors, development of the tourist industry and communications modernization.

References:

1. Parizhskaya rech’ generala v ego kvartire na ryu Pent’er pered serbskimi studentami “Zavety slavyanstvu” [“Testaments to the Slavs”, Parisian Speech of the General in his Apartment on Rue Pentier to Serbian Students]. Sitaty.info, available at: https://citaty.info/man/mihail-skobelev.

2. Mezhgosudarstvennye otnosheniya Rossii i Turkmenii [Interstate Relations between Russia and Turkmenistan]. RIA “Novosti”, 2022, 10 iyunya, available at: https://ria.ru/20220610/turkmeniya-1794373218.html.

3. BP Statistical Review of World Energy 2020. 69th edition, available at: https://www.bp.com/content/dam/bp/business-sites/en/global/corporate/pdfs/energy-economics/statistical-review/bp-stats-review-2020-full-report.pdf.

4. BP Statistical Review of World Energy 2020. 71th edition, available at: https://www.bp.com/content/dam/bp/business-sites/en/global/corporate/pdfs/
energy-economics/statistical-review/bp-stats-review-2022-full-report.pdf.

5. Vyakhirev gotov k kompromissu [Vyakhirev is Ready to Compromise]. Nezavisimaya gazeta, 1999, 18 dekabrya, available at: https://www.ng.ru/cis/1999-12-18/5_viahirev.html.

6. V Ashkhabade sostoyalsya shestoi Kaspiiskii sammit [The Sixth Caspian Summit was Held in Ashgabat]. Rossiiskaya gazeta, 2022, 29 iyunya, available at: https://rg.ru/2022/06/29/bereg-druzej.html.

7. Kaspiiskoe sotrudnichestvo kak sposob resheniya ekonomicheskikh problem Turkmenistana [Caspian Cooperation as a Way to Solve Turkmenistan’s Economic Problems]. CABAR, available at: https://cabar.asia/ru/

8. Citaty.info, available at: https://citaty.info/man/mihail-skobelev.

9. Turkmenistan prizyvaet strany Kaspiya k rasshireniyu transportnogo sotrudnichestva [Turkmenistan Calls on the Caspian Countries to Expand Transport Cooperation]. Bol’shaya Aziya, 2022, 7 oktyabrya, available at: https://bigasia.ru/content/news/businness/turkmenistan-prizyvaet-strany-kaspiyak-rasshireniyu-transportnogo-sotrudnichestva/

10. Proekt Turkmenbashinskogo mezhdunarodnogo porta [The Project of the Turkmenbashi International Port]. GAP.INSAAT, available at: https://www.gapinsaat.com/ru/infrastructure/international-turkmenbasi-seaport-project.html.

11. Cherez mezhdunarodnyi port Turkmenbashi (Turkmenistan) eksportirovano bolee 6,5 mln tonn gruzov [More than 6.5 million tons of Cargo were Exported Hhrough the International Port of Turkmenbashi (Turkmenistan)]. Internet-portal SNG, 2022, 2 sentyabrya, available at: https://e-cis.info/news/567/102962/

DOI: 10.33917/es-2.188.2023.24–35

The article discusses the scheme of K. Marxian expanded reproduction through the prism of the capital accumulation analysis by R. Luxembourg taking into account of the infrastructure impact on the development of capitalism.

The author gives examples of the 21st century infrastructure, in par ticular he examines multilateral platforms — payment systems for cross-border payments, associated with broadband satellite Internet access and an ar tificial intelligence environment.

References:

1. Kuznetsova A.I. Infrastruktura: voprosy teorii, metodologii i prikladnye aspekty sovremennogo infrastrukturnogo obustroistva. Geoekonomicheskii podkhod [Infrastructure: Issues of Theory, Methodology and Applied Aspects of Modern Infrastructure Development. Geoeconomic Approach]. Moscow, KomKniga, 2006, 456 p.

2. Novoselov A.S. Regional’nye rynki [Regional Markets]. Moscow, TERRA, 1999, 476 p.

3. Samuel’son P., Nordkhaus V.M. Ekonomika [Economy]. Moscow, Vil’yams, 2001, 688 p.

4. Buzgalin A.V., Kolganov A.I. Global’nyi capital [Global Capital]. Moscow, Editorial URSS, 2004, 512 p.

5. Vazyulin V.A. Logika “Kapitala” K. Marksa [The Logic of K. Marx’s “Capital”]. 2-e izd. Moscow, Sovremennyi gumanitarnyi universitet, 2002, 392 p.

6. Gegel’ G.V.F. Nauka logiki [The Science of Logic]. Saint Petersburg, Nauka, 2005, 799 p.

7. Marks K. Kapital [Capital]. T. I–III. Moscow, Politizdat, 1978, 629 p.

8. Lyuksemburg R. Nakoplenie kapitala [The Accumulation of Capital]. 5-e izd. Moscow — Leningrad, Gos. Sotsial’no-ekonomicheskoe izdatel’stvo, 1934, 478 p.

9. Organizatsiya ekonomicheskogo sotrudnichestva i razvitiya, M3 dlya SShA [Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development, M3 for the United States]. FRED, Federal’nyi rezervnyi bank Sent-Luisa, available at: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/MABMM301USM189S.

10. Zaidenvarg V.E., Podolyak V.I., Saraev V.N. Osnovy upravleniya krizisami na rynkakh uglya, gaza i elektroenergii [Fundamentals of Crisis Management in the Coal, Gas and Electricity Markets]. Moscow, Institut ekonomicheskikh strategii, 2003, 192 p.

11. Malkov S.Yu. Sotsial’naya samoorganizatsiya i istoricheskii protsess: Vozmozhnosti matematicheskogo modelirovaniya [Social Self-Organization and the Historical Process: Possibilities of Mathematical Modeling]. Moscow, Knizhnyi dom “LIBROKOM”, 2009, 240 p.

12. Interlinking payment systems and the role of application programming interfaces: a framework for cross-border payments. Basel, Switzerland, Bank for International Settlements, Committee on Payments and Market Infrastructures (CPMI). Report to the G20, 2022, July, 53 p.

13. Exploring multilateral platforms for cross-border payments. Basel, Switzerland, Bank for International Settlements, 2023, January, 33 p.

DOI: 10.33917/es-2.188.2023.6-23

We do care about what the foreseeable future will be… The recent period has clearly shown that expectations of W estern experts regarding the planned collapse of Russian and Chinese economies have not materialized. The ar ticle analyzes the main pressure tools and strategies of the main global politics actors on peripheral countries in order to solve the accumulated problems associated with increased debts and the need for fur ther trade expansion. Aggregated forecast scenarios for the situation development in relation to the GDP growth/fall of the leading countries of the world are structured.

The authors’ calculations proved that, despite the risks and threats of fur ther sanctions escalation and other restrictions, the implemented macroeconomic policy of Russia and China ensures preser vation of their key socio-economic indicators, providing national sovereignty.

References:

1. US Debt Clock, available at: https://www.usdebtclock.org.

2. Global wealth databook. 2021. Credit Suisse, 2021, June, available at: https://www.credit-suisse.com/media/assets/corporate/docs/about-us/research/
publications/global-wealth-databook-2021.pdf.

3. National Defense Budget Estimates for FY 2023. Office of the Under Secretary of Defense. United States Department of Defense, 2022, July, available at: https://comptroller.defense.gov/Budget-Materials/Budget2023/

4. Temnaya zima: Dannye Tsentra bezopasnosti zdorov’ya Dzhona Khopkinsa [Dark Winter: Data from the Johns Hopkins Health Security Center]. Center for Health Security, available at: https://www.centerforhealthsecurity.org/our-work/exercises/2001_dark-winter/about.html.

5. Atlanticheskii shtorm: Dannye Tsentra bezopasnosti zdorov’ya Dzhona Khopkinsa [Atlantic Storm: Data from the Johns Hopkins Health Security Center]. Center for Health Security, available at: https://www.centerforhealthsecurity.org/our-work/exercises/2005_atlantic_storm/index.html.

6. Meropriyatie 201: Dannye Tsentra bezopasnosti zdorov’ya Dzhona Khopkinsa [Event 201: Data from the Johns Hopkins Health Security Center]. Center for Health Security, available at: https://www.centerforhealthsecurity.org/our-work/exercises/event201/

7. Puteshestvie po Shveitsarii v usloviyakh pandemii COVID-19: polnoe rukovodstvo na dekabr’ 2021 goda [Traveling Switzerland During the COVID-19

Pandemic: The Ultimate Guide for December 2021]. Swiss Info, 2021, 2 dekabrya, available at: https://www.swissinfo.ch/eng/business/wealthy-enjoy–benefits-

-of-the-covid-19-pandemic/46725912.

8. Milliardery [Billionaires]. Americans for Tax Fairness. 2022. 14 aprelya. URL: https://americansfortaxfairness.org/issue/tax-day-americas-workingfamilies-

paying-fair-share-americas-billionaires-not.

9. Vozvrashchayas’ k mezhdunarodnoi roli dollara SShA [Revisiting the International Role of the US Dollar]. BIS. Bank mezhdunarodnykh raschetov, 2022, 5 dekabrya, available at: https://www.bis.org/publ/qtrpdf/r_qt2212x.htm#:~:text=Approximately%20half%20of%20global%20trade,(see%20CGFS%20(2020)).

DOI: 10.33917/es-1.187.2023.46-55

This article is devoted to ensuring the energy security of the member states of the Eurasian Economic Union (hereinafter referred to as the EAEU). Certain issues of ensuring energy security are considered; It is noted that the key goal of ensuring the energy security of the Union should be, first of all, the maintenance of the energy resource base of the Union.

The acts of the EAEU bodies and the Member States devoted to ensuring energy security were considered.

It is noted that the term “energy security” is used in many international legal acts, but there is no monotonous content of this definition in international law.

The author proposed to develop a number of documents aimed at improving the energy security system.

References:

1. Likhachev V.L. Energeticheskaya bezopasnost’ i napravleniya ee obespecheniya v EAES [Energy Security and Directions for its Provision in the EAEU]. Energeticheskaya politika, 2017, no 1, pp. 47–55.

2. Abakumova M.M. Energeticheskaya bezopasnost’ EAES: vyzovy i riski [EAEU Energy Security: Challenges and Risks]. Innovatsii i investitsii, 2018, no 1, pp. 89–92.

3. R eshenie Soveta glav pravitel’stv SNG ot 29 maya 2020 g. “O Strategii ekonomicheskogo razvitiya Sodruzhestva Nezavisimykh Gosudarstv na period do2030 goda” [Decision of the Council of Heads of Government of the CIS dated May 29, 2020 “On the Economic Development Strategy of the Commonwealth of Independent States for the Period up to 2030”]. Edinyi reestr pravovykh aktov i drugikh dokumentov Sodruzhestva Nezavisimykh Gosudarstv, available at: http://cis.minsk.by/reestr/ru/index.html#reestr/view/text?doc=6229.

4. Reshenie Soveta glav pravitel’stv SNG ot 1 iyunya 2018 g. “O Kontseptsii sotrudnichestva gosudarstv — uchastnikov SNG v oblasti innovatsionnogo razvitiya energetiki i razrabotki peredovykh energeticheskikh tekhnologii i Plane pervoocherednykh meropriyatii po ee realizatsii” [Concept of Cooperation between the CIS Member States in the Field of Innovative Development of the Energy Sector and the Development of Advanced Energy Technologies and the Plan of Priority Actions for its Implementation”]. Edinyi reestr pravovykh aktov i drugikh dokumentov Sodruzhestva Nezavisimykh Gosudarstv, available at: http://cis.minsk.by/

5. Postanovlenie N 8-15 Parlamentskoi Assamblei Organizatsii Dogovora o kollektivnoi bezopasnosti “O proekte Rekomendatsii po garmonizatsii zakonodatel’stva gosudarstv — chlenov ODKB v sfere ukrepleniya energeticheskoi bezopasnosti” [Resolution No. 8-15 of the Parliamentary Assembly of the Collective Security Treaty Organization “On the Draft Recommendations for the harmonization of the Legislation of the CSTO Member States in the Field of Strengthening Energy Security”]. Sait Parlamentskoi Assamblei Organizatsii Dogovora o kollektivnoi bezopasnosti, available at: http://www.paodkb.ru/

6. Postanovlenie PA ODKB ot 13 oktyabrya 2017 g. N 10-4.1 “O model’nom zakone ODKB ‘Ob energeticheskoi bezopasnosti’” [Resolution of the CSTO PA dated October 13, 2017 No. 10-4.1 “On the CSTO Model Law “On Energy Security”]. Sait Parlamentskoi Assamblei Organizatsii Dogovora o kollektivnoi bezopasnosti, available at: http://www.paodkb.ru/

DOI: 10.33917/es-1.187.2023.39-45

The article provides a modern answer to Adam Smith’s classic question on how exactly the vital assets of peoples are created in the states. It is shown that vital assets in the states are originally created through extraction (for a human), production (for a human) and imputation (into a human), which are three qualitatively different main types of vital creativity.

This results in identification of three main patterns of life: extractive, productive and imputative. It is argued that with any basic form of life creativity, creation of a changing variety of life assets in the states is carried out mainly due to inclusion of a larger mental component in all creative chains.

However, creation of a larger mental capacity can occur only through the concomitant and inevitable expenditure of both the same energy and the same information. Inevitable need for this mentioned expenditure (consumption) is the creative “damnation” of mankind.

Strategies for Russia’s exit from modern interstate exploitation are described. It is а proved that strategically and epochally the best way for Russia to get out of this system of exploitation is to recreate a sovereign, full-fledged three-pattern vitality, where combination of the main life patterns satisfies the life code that is historically inherent in Russia.

It is shown that due to the presence of the mentioned “damnation”, modern Russia has got an energy “lever” that is sufficient (if used correctly) to create its own anti-segregation macro-regional cooperants without pattern-based segregation.

References:

1. Zakharov V.K. Nomologiya. Mir i Rossiya. Kto vinovat? i Chto delat’? [Nomology. World and Russia. Who is guilty? and What to do?]. Moscow, Rodina, 2022, 668 p.

2. Anilionis G.P., Zotova N.A. Global’nyi mir: edinyi i razdelennyi. Evolyutsiya teorii globalizatsii [Global World: United and Divided. Evolution of Globalization Theories]. Moscow, Mezhdunarodnye otnosheniya, 2005, 676 p.

3. Bolduin R. Velikaya konvergentsiya. Informatsionnye tekhnologii i novaya globalizatsiya [Great Convergence. Information Technology and New Globalization]. Moscow, Delo, 2018, 415 p.

4. Dobren’kov V.I. Globalizatsiya. Sushchnost’, proyavleniya i sotsial’nye posledstviya [Globalization. Essence, Manifestations and Social Consequences]. Moscow, Akademicheskii proekt, 2018. 636 s.

5. Porter M.E. Mezhdunarodnaya konkurentsiya. Konkurentnye preimushchestva stran [International Competition. Competitive Advantages of Countries]. Moscow, Al’pina Pablisher, 2016, 947 p.

6. Men’shikov S.M. Anatomiya rossiiskogo kapitalizma [Anatomy of Russian Capitalism]. Moscow, Mezhdunarodnye otnosheniya, 2004, 432 p.

7. Ryazanov V.T. (Ne)Real’nyi kapitalizm. Politekonomiya krizisa i ego posledstvii dlya mirovogo khozyaistva i Rossii [(Un) Real Capitalism. Political Economy of the Crisis and of Its Consequences for the World Economy and Russia]. Moscow, Ekonomika, 2016, 695 p.

8. Fedorenko N.P. Rossiya na rubezhe vekov [Russia at the Turn of the Century]. Moscow, Ekonomika, 2003, 727 p.

DOI: https://doi.org/10.33917/es-6.186.2022.86-91

We describe the “window of opport unity” objectively opened up after the coronacrisis for Russia’s entering advanced service niches in global industrial chains and improving its international specialization. We show that after falling under Western sanctions in Spring 2022, Russia has lost this opportunity and suffers a technological rollback due to isolation from global markets.

References:

1. Export by Product Group. 2020. WITS, available at: https://wits.worldbank.org/

2. Smorodinskaya N.V., Katukov D.D., Malygin V.E. Global’nye stoimostnye tsepochki v epokhu neopredelennosti: preimushchestva, uyazvimosti, sposoby ukrepleniya rezil’entnosti [Global Value Chains in the Age of Uncertainty: Advantages, Vulnerabilities, Ways for Enhancing Resilience]. Baltiiskii region, 2021, no 3, pp. 78–107.

3. Ivanov D. Viable supply chain model: Integrating agility, resilience and sustainability perspectives-lessons from and thinking beyond the COVID-19 pandemic. Annals of operations research, 2020. P. 1–21.

4. World Bank. World development report 2020: Trading for development in the age of global value chains. Washington, DC, World Bank, 2020.

5. World Bank. Russia integrates: Deepening the country’s integration in the global economy. Washington, DC, World Bank, 2020.

6. Abdrakhmanova G.I., et al. Sektor IKT v 2021 godu: na pike rosta v preddverii novykh uslovii [ICT Sector in 2021: the Pinnacle of Growth on the Threshold of New Conditions]. Tsifrovaya ekonomika, 2022, no 56(240), available at: https://issek.hse.ru/news/655861546.html.

7. Smorodinskaya N.V., Katukov D.D. Shansy vykhoda Rossii na rynki Industrii 4.0 cherez uluchshenie svoikh pozitsii v raspredelennom proizvodstve [Russia’s Opportunities for Entering Industry 4.0 Markets by Improving Its Position in Distributed Production]. Zhurnal Novoi ekonomicheskoi assotsiatsii, 2022, no 1(53), pp. 223–231.

8. Panel’ monitoringa sanktsii protiv Rossii [Russia Sanctions Dashboard]. Castellum.AI, available at: https://www.castellum.ai/russia-sanctionsdashboard

9. Bank Rossii. Makroekonomika i rynki [Bank of Russia. Macroeconomics and Markets]. O chem govoryat trendy, 2022, no 2, available at: https://cbr.ru/Collection/Collection/File/40953/bulletin_22-02.pdf.

10. Simola H. Trade sanctions and Russian production. BOFIT. Policy Briefs, 2022, no 4.

11. Chorzempa M. Export controls against Russia are working — with the help of China. The Peterson Institute for International Economics, 2022, available at: https://www.piie.com/blogs/realtime-economic-issues-watch/export-controls-against-russia-are-working-help-china.

12. Bank Rossii. Osnovnye napravleniya edinoi gosudarstvennoi denezhno-kreditnoi politiki na 2023 god i period 2024 i 2025 godov [Bank of Russia. The Main Directions of the State Monetary Policy for 2023 and the Period of 2024 and 2025]. Moscow, Bank Rossii, 2022.

13. Chebakova D., Balashova A. Uchastniki rynka otsenili novuyu volnu uezzhayushchikh iz Rossii aitishnikov [Market Participants have Assessed a New Wave of IT Specialists Leaving Russia]. RBK, 2022, 28 sentyabrya, available at: https://www.rbc.ru/technology_and_media/28/09/2022/633324f39a7947518c6fd452.

DOI: https://doi.org/10.33917/es-6.186.2022.76-85

The article considers the content of the ESG requirements as a transitional phase from unregulated globalization to the achievement of the UN Sustainable Development Goals until 2030, focuses on the social component, as well as on the relationship between achieving steering ejection with the restructuring of energy generating segments of national economies, incl. developing countries; it is emphasized that the developed countries, proclaiming the energy transition to renewable sources, use the potential of developing economies for their own purposes, which strengthens the trend towards state regulation of developing countries in order to achieve national economic objectives; it is analyzed that the unconditional implementation of the ESG principles led to a reduction in long-term investments in exploration and production of fossil energy sources, which in turn led to a sharp increase in prices in world markets; it is substantiated that the process of energy transition requires smooth implementation of the process, in connection with which a radical rejection of fossil fuels is unacceptable in modern conditions, and given the sanctions strategy of the Anglo-Saxon countries in relation to a number of states with an increased social component in the investment load of economic entities, in practice undermines the achievement of the goals of environmental justice, assistance to increase the welfare of the population and increase the social responsibility of companies to society.

References:

1. 17 tselei dlya preobrazovaniya nashego mira [17 Goals for Transforming Our World]. OON, available at: https://www.un.org/sustainabledevelopment/ru/

2. Shirokomasshtabnoe, bystroe i usilivayushcheesya izmenenie klimata — MGEIK: Press-reliz MGEIK [Widespread, Rapid and Accelerating Climate Change — IPCC: IPCC Press Release]. IPCC. 2021б available at: https://www.ipcc.ch/site/assets/uploads/2021/08/IPCC_WGI-AR6-Press-Release_ru.pdf.

3. Doklad Rosgidrometa ob osobennostyakh klimata na territorii RF za 2021 god [Roshydromet Report on the Climate Peculiarities in the Russian Federation for 2021]. Izmenenie klimata, 2022, no 95.

4. Henisz W., Koller T., Nuttall R. Five Ways That ESG Creates Value. McKinsey, available at: https://www.mckinsey.com/business-functions/strategy-andcorporate-finance/our-insights/five-ways-that-esg-creates-value.

5. ESG Trends 2021: Energy Transition. Oxford Business Group, 2021, available at: https://oxfordbusinessgroup.com/news/esg-trends-2021-energy-transition.

6. How will Net Zero 2050 plans affect emerging markets? Oxford Business Group, available at: https://oxfordbusinessgroup.com/news/how-will-net-zero-2050-plans-affect-emerging-markets.

7. MEA nazvalo 2021 god rekordnym po rostu “zelenoi” energetiki [IEA has Named 2021 a Record Year for the “Green” Energy Growth]. RBK, available at: https://trends.rbc.ru/trends/green/61a8b7f89a79475ba760b602.

8. Morrison R. Environmental, Social, and Governance Theory. Competitive Enterprise Institute, 2021, available at: https://cei.org/wp-content/uploads/2021/05/Richard-Morrison-ESG-Theory.pdf.

DOI: https://doi.org/10.33917/es-6.186.2022.66-75

Technological forecasts are intended to serve as a guide for business and government authorities. However, post factum they often demonstrate a low instrumental value. The authors propose to use the technological megacycle concept as a methodological “framework” for forming technological forecasts. The article provides empirical evidence of the expediency of such approach in long-term forecasting.

References:

1. Tolkachev S.A., Teplyakov A.Yu. Kontseptsiya otraslevogo rasprostraneniya bazisnykh tekhnologii: novyi tekhnologicheskii megatsikl [Concept of Sectoral Proliferation of Basic Technologies: a New Technological Megacycle]. Ekonomist, 2020, no 1, pp. 25–35.

2. Tolkachev S.A., Teplyakov A.Yu. Tekhnologicheskii megatsikl i promyshlennaya politika [Technological Megacycle and Industrial Policy]. Ekonomist, 2021, no 1, pp. 43–54.

3. Tolkachev S.A., Teplyakov A.Yu. Strategicheskoe planirovanie i promyshlennaya politika na sovremennom etape tsiklicheskogo mirokhozyaistvennogo razvitiya [Strategic Planning and Industrial Policy at the Current Stage of the Cyclic World Economic Development]. Ekonomicheskie strategii, 2022, vol. 24, no 1(181), pp. 40–51, DOI: https://doi.org/10.33917/es-1.181.2022.40-51.

4. Knyazev Yu.K. O tekhnologicheskikh tsiklakh v mirovoi ekonomike [On Technological Cycles in the Global Economy]. Obshchestvo i ekonomika, 2022, no 4, pp. 6, 7.

5. Glazkova V.V. Funktsionirovanie i razvitie sistemy teplosnabzheniya v Rossii v usloviyakh smeny energeticheskogo uklada [Functioning and Development of the Heat Supply System in Russia in the Context of Changing Energy Patterns]. E-Management, 2022, vol 5, no 2, pp. 23, 24.

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DOI: https://doi.org/10.33917/es-6.186.2022.52-65

“The world will never be the same again,” says the overwhelming majority of socially active Russians, referring to the “old world” as the planetary community until February 24, 2022. At the same time, the most rapid, cardinal, unmistakably projected transformations are announced as crucial tasks for Russia all Russian life support systems and accelerated modernization. The most important of them, according to the authors of the article, is the logistics project proposed in 2006 by Academicians of the Russian Academy of Sciences V.A. Sadovnichim and G.V. Osipov, which in the new edition is presented in the article as “United Eurasia – Transsib 2.0”. It is based on the concept of the spatial economy, which is made up of transnational megaprojects that have been successfully implemented over the past 70 years.

“United Eurasia — Transsib 2.0” at the initial stage is intended to overcome the attempts of Europe and the United States to implement a transport blockade of the Russian Federation. Such a blockade could hinder the development of our country, which would lead to a decrease in the living standards of the population and, as Russia’s enemies suggest, corrosion of national unity and consolidation of the masses with power structures after the start of the military operation to liberate Donbass. In the future, after the successful solution of the Russian transport problems proper, the proposed logistics project can successfully develop as a transcontinental one, linking different regions of the world along new economically and politically promising vectors and directions. In particular, we can talk about pairing with the Chinese logistics corridor “Silk Road”, to counter which at the June G7 summit in South Bavaria, the countries of the “golden billion” proposed to allocate unprecedented investments of 0 billion.

The article contains a list of the main threats to the Russian Federation, consisting of 10 points, and a summary of their prompt relief with subsequent complete elimination. The technology for the implementation of the megaproject “United Eurasia — Transsib 2.0” has been prescribed — along with budgetary financing of the new Transsib, it is planned to attract investments from the regional budgets of those entities through which the proposed route will pass, as well as to co-finance the capital of private investors and issue marketable “Trans-Siberian” loan bonds.

Obviously, after conducting a special military operation in Ukraine, Russia will have to equip its Eurasian space between Europe and East Asia in the shortest possible time in the neighborhood of five civilizations — Christian, Muslim, Hindu, Shinto and Buddhist — so that it can finally become a territory of safe solidarity development.