DOI: 10.33917/es-1.187.2023.39-45

The article provides a modern answer to Adam Smith’s classic question on how exactly the vital assets of peoples are created in the states. It is shown that vital assets in the states are originally created through extraction (for a human), production (for a human) and imputation (into a human), which are three qualitatively different main types of vital creativity.

This results in identification of three main patterns of life: extractive, productive and imputative. It is argued that with any basic form of life creativity, creation of a changing variety of life assets in the states is carried out mainly due to inclusion of a larger mental component in all creative chains.

However, creation of a larger mental capacity can occur only through the concomitant and inevitable expenditure of both the same energy and the same information. Inevitable need for this mentioned expenditure (consumption) is the creative “damnation” of mankind.

Strategies for Russia’s exit from modern interstate exploitation are described. It is а proved that strategically and epochally the best way for Russia to get out of this system of exploitation is to recreate a sovereign, full-fledged three-pattern vitality, where combination of the main life patterns satisfies the life code that is historically inherent in Russia.

It is shown that due to the presence of the mentioned “damnation”, modern Russia has got an energy “lever” that is sufficient (if used correctly) to create its own anti-segregation macro-regional cooperants without pattern-based segregation.

References:

1. Zakharov V.K. Nomologiya. Mir i Rossiya. Kto vinovat? i Chto delat’? [Nomology. World and Russia. Who is guilty? and What to do?]. Moscow, Rodina, 2022, 668 p.

2. Anilionis G.P., Zotova N.A. Global’nyi mir: edinyi i razdelennyi. Evolyutsiya teorii globalizatsii [Global World: United and Divided. Evolution of Globalization Theories]. Moscow, Mezhdunarodnye otnosheniya, 2005, 676 p.

3. Bolduin R. Velikaya konvergentsiya. Informatsionnye tekhnologii i novaya globalizatsiya [Great Convergence. Information Technology and New Globalization]. Moscow, Delo, 2018, 415 p.

4. Dobren’kov V.I. Globalizatsiya. Sushchnost’, proyavleniya i sotsial’nye posledstviya [Globalization. Essence, Manifestations and Social Consequences]. Moscow, Akademicheskii proekt, 2018. 636 s.

5. Porter M.E. Mezhdunarodnaya konkurentsiya. Konkurentnye preimushchestva stran [International Competition. Competitive Advantages of Countries]. Moscow, Al’pina Pablisher, 2016, 947 p.

6. Men’shikov S.M. Anatomiya rossiiskogo kapitalizma [Anatomy of Russian Capitalism]. Moscow, Mezhdunarodnye otnosheniya, 2004, 432 p.

7. Ryazanov V.T. (Ne)Real’nyi kapitalizm. Politekonomiya krizisa i ego posledstvii dlya mirovogo khozyaistva i Rossii [(Un) Real Capitalism. Political Economy of the Crisis and of Its Consequences for the World Economy and Russia]. Moscow, Ekonomika, 2016, 695 p.

8. Fedorenko N.P. Rossiya na rubezhe vekov [Russia at the Turn of the Century]. Moscow, Ekonomika, 2003, 727 p.

DOI: https://doi.org/10.33917/es-6.186.2022.86-91

We describe the “window of opport unity” objectively opened up after the coronacrisis for Russia’s entering advanced service niches in global industrial chains and improving its international specialization. We show that after falling under Western sanctions in Spring 2022, Russia has lost this opportunity and suffers a technological rollback due to isolation from global markets.

References:

1. Export by Product Group. 2020. WITS, available at: https://wits.worldbank.org/

2. Smorodinskaya N.V., Katukov D.D., Malygin V.E. Global’nye stoimostnye tsepochki v epokhu neopredelennosti: preimushchestva, uyazvimosti, sposoby ukrepleniya rezil’entnosti [Global Value Chains in the Age of Uncertainty: Advantages, Vulnerabilities, Ways for Enhancing Resilience]. Baltiiskii region, 2021, no 3, pp. 78–107.

3. Ivanov D. Viable supply chain model: Integrating agility, resilience and sustainability perspectives-lessons from and thinking beyond the COVID-19 pandemic. Annals of operations research, 2020. P. 1–21.

4. World Bank. World development report 2020: Trading for development in the age of global value chains. Washington, DC, World Bank, 2020.

5. World Bank. Russia integrates: Deepening the country’s integration in the global economy. Washington, DC, World Bank, 2020.

6. Abdrakhmanova G.I., et al. Sektor IKT v 2021 godu: na pike rosta v preddverii novykh uslovii [ICT Sector in 2021: the Pinnacle of Growth on the Threshold of New Conditions]. Tsifrovaya ekonomika, 2022, no 56(240), available at: https://issek.hse.ru/news/655861546.html.

7. Smorodinskaya N.V., Katukov D.D. Shansy vykhoda Rossii na rynki Industrii 4.0 cherez uluchshenie svoikh pozitsii v raspredelennom proizvodstve [Russia’s Opportunities for Entering Industry 4.0 Markets by Improving Its Position in Distributed Production]. Zhurnal Novoi ekonomicheskoi assotsiatsii, 2022, no 1(53), pp. 223–231.

8. Panel’ monitoringa sanktsii protiv Rossii [Russia Sanctions Dashboard]. Castellum.AI, available at: https://www.castellum.ai/russia-sanctionsdashboard

9. Bank Rossii. Makroekonomika i rynki [Bank of Russia. Macroeconomics and Markets]. O chem govoryat trendy, 2022, no 2, available at: https://cbr.ru/Collection/Collection/File/40953/bulletin_22-02.pdf.

10. Simola H. Trade sanctions and Russian production. BOFIT. Policy Briefs, 2022, no 4.

11. Chorzempa M. Export controls against Russia are working — with the help of China. The Peterson Institute for International Economics, 2022, available at: https://www.piie.com/blogs/realtime-economic-issues-watch/export-controls-against-russia-are-working-help-china.

12. Bank Rossii. Osnovnye napravleniya edinoi gosudarstvennoi denezhno-kreditnoi politiki na 2023 god i period 2024 i 2025 godov [Bank of Russia. The Main Directions of the State Monetary Policy for 2023 and the Period of 2024 and 2025]. Moscow, Bank Rossii, 2022.

13. Chebakova D., Balashova A. Uchastniki rynka otsenili novuyu volnu uezzhayushchikh iz Rossii aitishnikov [Market Participants have Assessed a New Wave of IT Specialists Leaving Russia]. RBK, 2022, 28 sentyabrya, available at: https://www.rbc.ru/technology_and_media/28/09/2022/633324f39a7947518c6fd452.

DOI: https://doi.org/10.33917/es-6.186.2022.76-85

The article considers the content of the ESG requirements as a transitional phase from unregulated globalization to the achievement of the UN Sustainable Development Goals until 2030, focuses on the social component, as well as on the relationship between achieving steering ejection with the restructuring of energy generating segments of national economies, incl. developing countries; it is emphasized that the developed countries, proclaiming the energy transition to renewable sources, use the potential of developing economies for their own purposes, which strengthens the trend towards state regulation of developing countries in order to achieve national economic objectives; it is analyzed that the unconditional implementation of the ESG principles led to a reduction in long-term investments in exploration and production of fossil energy sources, which in turn led to a sharp increase in prices in world markets; it is substantiated that the process of energy transition requires smooth implementation of the process, in connection with which a radical rejection of fossil fuels is unacceptable in modern conditions, and given the sanctions strategy of the Anglo-Saxon countries in relation to a number of states with an increased social component in the investment load of economic entities, in practice undermines the achievement of the goals of environmental justice, assistance to increase the welfare of the population and increase the social responsibility of companies to society.

References:

1. 17 tselei dlya preobrazovaniya nashego mira [17 Goals for Transforming Our World]. OON, available at: https://www.un.org/sustainabledevelopment/ru/

2. Shirokomasshtabnoe, bystroe i usilivayushcheesya izmenenie klimata — MGEIK: Press-reliz MGEIK [Widespread, Rapid and Accelerating Climate Change — IPCC: IPCC Press Release]. IPCC. 2021б available at: https://www.ipcc.ch/site/assets/uploads/2021/08/IPCC_WGI-AR6-Press-Release_ru.pdf.

3. Doklad Rosgidrometa ob osobennostyakh klimata na territorii RF za 2021 god [Roshydromet Report on the Climate Peculiarities in the Russian Federation for 2021]. Izmenenie klimata, 2022, no 95.

4. Henisz W., Koller T., Nuttall R. Five Ways That ESG Creates Value. McKinsey, available at: https://www.mckinsey.com/business-functions/strategy-andcorporate-finance/our-insights/five-ways-that-esg-creates-value.

5. ESG Trends 2021: Energy Transition. Oxford Business Group, 2021, available at: https://oxfordbusinessgroup.com/news/esg-trends-2021-energy-transition.

6. How will Net Zero 2050 plans affect emerging markets? Oxford Business Group, available at: https://oxfordbusinessgroup.com/news/how-will-net-zero-2050-plans-affect-emerging-markets.

7. MEA nazvalo 2021 god rekordnym po rostu “zelenoi” energetiki [IEA has Named 2021 a Record Year for the “Green” Energy Growth]. RBK, available at: https://trends.rbc.ru/trends/green/61a8b7f89a79475ba760b602.

8. Morrison R. Environmental, Social, and Governance Theory. Competitive Enterprise Institute, 2021, available at: https://cei.org/wp-content/uploads/2021/05/Richard-Morrison-ESG-Theory.pdf.

DOI: https://doi.org/10.33917/es-6.186.2022.66-75

Technological forecasts are intended to serve as a guide for business and government authorities. However, post factum they often demonstrate a low instrumental value. The authors propose to use the technological megacycle concept as a methodological “framework” for forming technological forecasts. The article provides empirical evidence of the expediency of such approach in long-term forecasting.

References:

1. Tolkachev S.A., Teplyakov A.Yu. Kontseptsiya otraslevogo rasprostraneniya bazisnykh tekhnologii: novyi tekhnologicheskii megatsikl [Concept of Sectoral Proliferation of Basic Technologies: a New Technological Megacycle]. Ekonomist, 2020, no 1, pp. 25–35.

2. Tolkachev S.A., Teplyakov A.Yu. Tekhnologicheskii megatsikl i promyshlennaya politika [Technological Megacycle and Industrial Policy]. Ekonomist, 2021, no 1, pp. 43–54.

3. Tolkachev S.A., Teplyakov A.Yu. Strategicheskoe planirovanie i promyshlennaya politika na sovremennom etape tsiklicheskogo mirokhozyaistvennogo razvitiya [Strategic Planning and Industrial Policy at the Current Stage of the Cyclic World Economic Development]. Ekonomicheskie strategii, 2022, vol. 24, no 1(181), pp. 40–51, DOI: https://doi.org/10.33917/es-1.181.2022.40-51.

4. Knyazev Yu.K. O tekhnologicheskikh tsiklakh v mirovoi ekonomike [On Technological Cycles in the Global Economy]. Obshchestvo i ekonomika, 2022, no 4, pp. 6, 7.

5. Glazkova V.V. Funktsionirovanie i razvitie sistemy teplosnabzheniya v Rossii v usloviyakh smeny energeticheskogo uklada [Functioning and Development of the Heat Supply System in Russia in the Context of Changing Energy Patterns]. E-Management, 2022, vol 5, no 2, pp. 23, 24.

6. Bresnahan T.F., Trajtenberg M. General Purpose Technologies: “Engines of Growth”? Journal of Econometrics, 1995, vol. 65, no 1, pp. 83–108.

7. Glaz’ev S.Yu. Mirokhozyaistvennye uklady v global’nom ekonomicheskom razvitii [World Economic Structures in Global Economic Development]. Ekonomika i matematicheskie metody, 2016, vol 52, no 2, pp. 3–29.

8. Aivazov A.E., Belikov V.A. Formirovanie integral’nogo mirokhozyaistvennogo uklada — budushchee mirovoi ekonomiki [Formation of an Integral World Economic Order is the Future of the Global Economy]. Ekonomicheskaya nauka sovremennoi Rossii, 2017, no 1(76), pp. 7–21.

9. Albright R.E. What can Past Technology Forecasts Tell us about the Future? Submitted to Technological Forecasting and Social Change, 2002, January, p. 5.

10. Kurzweil R. How My Predictions Are Faring, 2010, October.

11. 21st Century Technologies: Promises and Perils of a Dynamic Future. OECD, 1998, p. 46.

12. Schwab K. The Fourth Industrial Revolution. World Economic Forum, 2016, p. 30.

13. Saritas O. An OECD Horizon Scan of Megatrends and Technology Trends in the Context of Future Research Policy. OECD, 2016, p. 8.

14. Technology and Innovation Report 2021. UNCTAD, 2021.

DOI: https://doi.org/10.33917/es-6.186.2022.52-65

“The world will never be the same again,” says the overwhelming majority of socially active Russians, referring to the “old world” as the planetary community until February 24, 2022. At the same time, the most rapid, cardinal, unmistakably projected transformations are announced as crucial tasks for Russia all Russian life support systems and accelerated modernization. The most important of them, according to the authors of the article, is the logistics project proposed in 2006 by Academicians of the Russian Academy of Sciences V.A. Sadovnichim and G.V. Osipov, which in the new edition is presented in the article as “United Eurasia – Transsib 2.0”. It is based on the concept of the spatial economy, which is made up of transnational megaprojects that have been successfully implemented over the past 70 years.

“United Eurasia — Transsib 2.0” at the initial stage is intended to overcome the attempts of Europe and the United States to implement a transport blockade of the Russian Federation. Such a blockade could hinder the development of our country, which would lead to a decrease in the living standards of the population and, as Russia’s enemies suggest, corrosion of national unity and consolidation of the masses with power structures after the start of the military operation to liberate Donbass. In the future, after the successful solution of the Russian transport problems proper, the proposed logistics project can successfully develop as a transcontinental one, linking different regions of the world along new economically and politically promising vectors and directions. In particular, we can talk about pairing with the Chinese logistics corridor “Silk Road”, to counter which at the June G7 summit in South Bavaria, the countries of the “golden billion” proposed to allocate unprecedented investments of 0 billion.

The article contains a list of the main threats to the Russian Federation, consisting of 10 points, and a summary of their prompt relief with subsequent complete elimination. The technology for the implementation of the megaproject “United Eurasia — Transsib 2.0” has been prescribed — along with budgetary financing of the new Transsib, it is planned to attract investments from the regional budgets of those entities through which the proposed route will pass, as well as to co-finance the capital of private investors and issue marketable “Trans-Siberian” loan bonds.

Obviously, after conducting a special military operation in Ukraine, Russia will have to equip its Eurasian space between Europe and East Asia in the shortest possible time in the neighborhood of five civilizations — Christian, Muslim, Hindu, Shinto and Buddhist — so that it can finally become a territory of safe solidarity development.

DOI: https://doi.org/10.33917/es-6.186.2022.38-51

The present paper follows up an earlier study on modeling and assessing the national strength of the world countries. This integral index is the most informative and popular indicator in the world that characterizes the aggregate potential of a particular country and at the same time makes it possible to compare the level of its power and socio-economic development with similar indicators of other states.

In the past national strength calculations were carried out by well-known political figures, such as foreign policy strategist and director (from 1975 to 2013) of the main Office of Net Assessment (ONA) of the US Department of Defence, Andrew Marshall [1], founder of political realism, Nicholas John Spekeman [2], one of the leading US foreign policy experts, Hans Morgenthau [3], founder of neorealism theory Kenneth Neil Waltz [4], author of the theory of offensive realism John Mearsheimer [5] and others. To date, dozens of methods for assessing national strength have been developed, the first of which was put forward in 1741. In the article first of all we’ll consider the most well-known foreign results and then present our own ones. In our opinion, it is important to make calculations of the integral indicator of national strength on an ongoing basis, as well as to compare our country’s potential with alternative estimates of analytical centers of geopolitical opponents.

References:

1. Marshall A.W. A Program to Improve Analytic Methods related to Strategic Forces. Policy Sciences, 1982, no 15(1), pp. 47–50, DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/BF00143367.

2. Spykman N.J. America’s Strategy in World Politics: The United States and the Balance of Power (1942; reprint, Hamden, CT: Archon Books, 1970).

3. Morgenthau H.J. Politics among Nations: The Struggle for Power and Peace, 2nd edition. New York: Alfred A. Knopf, 1954.

4. Waltz K.H. Theory of International Politics. Addison-Wesley Publishing Company, 1979.

5. Mearsheimer J.J. The Tragedy of Great Power Politics. N.Y., L., W.W. Norton & Company, 2001.

6. Correlates of War, available at: https://correlatesofwar.org.

7. Power. U.S. News & World Report, available at: https://www.usnews.com/news/best-countries/rankings/power.

8. Methodology: How the 2022 Best Countries Were Ranked. U.S. News & World Report, available at: https://www.usnews.com/news/best-countries/articles/methodology.

9. Most Powerful Countries 2022. World Population Review, available at: https://worldpopulationreview.com/country-rankings/most-powerful-countries.

10. About WPI. The World Power Index, available at: https://www.worldpowerindex.com/about-world-power-index/

11. Past Years. Lowy Institute Asia Power Index, available at: https://power.lowyinstitute.org/data/power.

12. What is Power. Lowy Institute Asia Power Index, available at: https://power.lowyinstitute.org/methodology/

13. Moyer J.D., Markle A. Relative national power codebook, version 7.2.2018. Denver, CO: Frederick S. Pardee Center for International Futures, Josef Korbel School of International Studies, University of Denver, 2018.

DOI: https://doi.org/10.33917/es-4.184.2022.28-35

In the proposed material, the author draws attention to the fact that in the conditions of recent forced reputational losses for Russia, the problem of forming an attractive national image becomes extremely relevant. The author examines the position of Russia in the field of national image in comparison with a number of foreign states. Based on the approaches of the theoretical founder and leader of country branding, S. Anholt, the author reviews the state of affairs in various spheres of Russian life, and concludes that the most promising areas for the formation of a new positive image of Russia are the sphere of culture and the tourism industry.

Источники:

1. Nye J. Bound to Lead: The Changing Nature of American Power. New York, Basic Books, 1990.

2. Nye J. Soft Power: The Means to Success in World Politics. New York, Public Affairs Group, 2004.

3. Russkie v Amerike. Kniga sudeb [Russians in America. Book of Fates].Comp. V. Levin. Minsk, Smolensk, 1996, p. 190.

4. Kotler Ph., Haider D.H., Rein I.J. Marketing Places: Attracting Investment, Industry, and Tourism to Cities, States and Nations. Free Press, 1993.

5. Ward S.V., Ward S. Selling Places: The Marketing and Promotion of Towns and Cities. 1850–2000. Taylor & Francis, 1998.

6. Anholt S. Places: Identity, Image and Reputation. London, Palgrave Macmillan, 2009.

7. Germany maintains top “nation brand” ranking, Canada and Japan overtake the UK to round out the top three. Ipsos, available at: https://www.ipsos.com/en/nation-brands-index-2021.

8. The Good Country Index, available at: https://index.goodcountry.org/

9. The Good Country Equation: How We Can Repair the World in One Generation. Berrett-Koehler, 2020.

10. Saimon Ankhol’t: Problema Rossii v tom, chto ee schitayut obuzoi [Simon Anholt: Russia’s Problem is That it is Considered a Burden]. SNOB, available at: https://snob.ru/selected/entry/56182/

11. Otchet o rezul’tatakh ekspertno-analiticheskogo meropriyatiya “Opredelenie osnovnykh prichin, sderzhivayushchikh nauchnoe razvitie v Rossiiskoi Federatsii: otsenka nauchnoi infrastruktury, dostatochnost’ motivatsionnykh mer, obespechenie privlekatel’nosti raboty vedushchikh uchenykh” [Report on Results of the Expert-analytical Event “Identification of the Main Reasons Hindering Scientific Development in the Russian Federation: Assessment of the Scientific Infrastructure, Sufficiency of Motivational Measures, Provision of Attractiveness of the Leading Scientists’ Work”]. FGOSVO, available at:  https://fgosvo.ru/uploadfiles/Work_materials_disscusion/sp.pdf.

12. Muzychuk V.Yu. Finansirovanie kul’tury v Rossii: shag vpered i dva nazad [Financing Culture in Russia: One Step Forward and Two Steps Back]. Zhurnal NEA, 2019, no 1(41), pp. 208–215.

13. Governance Index: World Map. SOLABILITY, available at: https://solability.com/the-global-sustainable-competitiveness-index/the-index/governance-capital.

14. Reiting turisticheskikh stran [Rating of Tourist Countries]. TouristicLog, available at: http://www.alexeytour.ru/strany_mira_tour-rating.html.

DOI: https://doi.org/10.33917/es-4.184.2022.17-21

The article emphasizes that freezing of Russian gold and foreign exchange reserves was previously accurately predicted by Russian experts. Attention is drawn to the fact that weakening of the ruble was one of the goals of the sanctions impact on the Russian economy that Western countries were bearing in mind. It is obvious that the exact opposite — preventing its depreciation and turning the ruble into a stable strong currency — is an anti-sanction measure. With high dependence of the Russian economy on imports, as well as in the situation when it is necessary to find alternative ways for imports (primarily for investment), which will lead to their higher prices with corresponding consequences, an excessive exchange rate depreciation may adversely affect economic development, especially in a long term. In addition, extremely important is ensuring stability of the exchange rate. It is concluded that stable and non-depreciating ruble will form the basis for consistent development of business and expand the possibilities for using the ruble in foreign trade settlements as well. It is particularly relevant in the context of restrictions on the use of leading currencies in foreign trade.

Источники:

1. Ershov M.V. Sanktsii protiv RF: mekhanizmy neitralizatsii [Sanctions Against the Russian Federation: Neutralization Mechanisms]. Ekonomicheskie strategii, 2017, no 7, pp. 46–51.

2. Baiden ogovorilsya, zayaviv, chto dollar stoit 200 rublei [Biden Made a Slip of the Tongue Saying That the Dollar is Worth 200 Rubles]. RIA Novosti, 2022, March, 26, available at: https://ria.ru/20220326/bayden-1780271172.html.

3. Sanktsii SShA protiv TsB i Minfina perekroyut dostup k rezervam dlya podderzhki rublya [US Sanctions Against the Central Bank and the Ministry of Finance will Block Access to Reserves for Supporting the Ruble]. Interfaks, 2022, February, 28, available at: https://www.interfax.ru/business/825191.

4. Bank Rossii. O chem govoryat trendy [Bank of Russia. What are the Trends Saying?]. BCS Express, 2022, April, 22, available at: https://bcs-express.ru/novosti-i-analitika/bank-rossii-o-chem-govoriat-trendy.

5. SMI: EK zayavila, chto ukaz ob oplate gaza v rublyakh narushaet sanktsii ES [Media: EC Said That the Decree on Gas Payments in Rubles Violates EU Sanctions]. RIA Novosti, 2022, April, 14, available at: https://ria.ru/20220414/gaz-1783434893.html.

6. Russia’s ruble is the strongest currency in the world this year. CBS NEWS, 2022, May, 27, available at: https://www.cbsnews.com/news/russia-rublecurrency-2022/

7. Ershov M.V. Valyutnaya politika kak faktor natsional’noi bezopasnosti [Monetary Policy as National Security Factor]. Ekonomicheskie strategii, 2015, no 4, pp. 20–29.

8. Washington Times. 2015, April, 30.

9. Ershov M.V. Ekonomicheskii suverenitet Rossii v global’noi ekonomike [Russia’s Economic Sovereignty in the Global Economy]. Moscow, Ekonomika, 2005, 280 p.

10. BIS. Quarterly Review. International banking and financial market developments. June 2022.

DOI: https://doi.org/10.33917/es-4.184.2022.6-16

The risks of increasing international tension have sharply exacerbated the possibility of a nuclear conflict. The main geopolitical players in the international arena have actually recognized the possibility and even expediency of using nuclear weapons. In this context, the need to simulate the consequences of a nuclear strike in order to prepare for emergencies of a critical nature has become extremely urgent. The present article analyzes foreign experience of using digital simulators to this end. The authors outline Russian views on applying agent-based simulation methods for this purpose in the analysis of non-military (civilian) aspects of a nuclear blow effects.

Источники:

1. Grabchak E.P., Loginov E.L. Podgotovka sistemy gosudarstvennogo upravleniya Rossii k sverkhkriticheskim situatsiyam prirodnogo i tekhnogennogo kharaktera [Preparing the Public Administration System of Russia for Supercritical Situations of Natural and Man-made Nature]. Problemy upravleniya bezopasnost’yu slozhnykh sistem: Materialy XXIX Mezhdunarodnoi nauchno-prakticheskoi konferentsii. Moskva, 15 dekabrya 2021 g. [Problems of Safety Management of Complex Systems: Proceedings of the XXIX International Scientific-practical Conference. Moscow, December 15, 2021]. Moscow, Institut problem upravleniya im. V.A. Trapeznikova RAN, pp. 99–103.

2. Ageev A.I., Bochkarev O.I., Grabchak E.P., Loginov E.L. Setetsentricheskaya sistema povyshennoi zhivuchesti upravleniya energetikoi Rossii v slozhnoprognoziruemykh kriticheskikh usloviyakh [Net-Centric System of Elevated Survivability of Energy Management in Russia Under Difficult-to-predict Critical Conditions]. Ekonomicheskie strategii, 2021, vol. 23, no 3 (177), pp. 6–17, available at: DOI: https://doi.org/10.33917/es-3.177.2021.6-17.

3. Moiseev N.N., Aleksandrov V.V., Tarko A.M. Chelovek i biosfera: Opyt sistemnogo analiza i eksperimenty s modelyami [Man and the Biosphere: The Experience of System Analysis and Experiments with Models]. Moscow, Nauka, 1985, 271 p.

4. Yadernaya zima i ee komp’yuternoe modelirovanie v 80-kh [Nuclear Winter and Its Computer Simulation in the 80s]. Khabr, 2022, May, 28, available at: https://habr.com/ru/company/ruvds/blog/668256/

5. Turco R.P., Toon O.B., Ackerman T.P., Pollack J.B., Sagan C. Nuclear winter: Global consequences of multiple nuclear explosions, 1984.

6. Kokoshin A.A., Arbatov A.G., Vasil’ev A.A. Yadernoe oruzhie i strategicheskaya stabil’nost’ (stat’ya pervaya) [Nuclear Weapons and Strategic Stability (Article One)]. SShA: Ekonomika, politika, ideologiya, 1987, no 9, p. 3.

7. John M. Gates. The U.S. Army and Irregular Warfare. The College of Wooster Wooster, Ohio, available at: https://discover.wooster.edu/jgates/files/2011/11/fullbook.pdf.

8. Starr S. Deadly Climate Change From Nuclear War: A threat to human existence, available at: https://www.armscontrol.ru/pubs/en/deadly-climate-changefromnuclear-war.pdf.

9. Velikhov E., Kokoshin A. Yadernoe oruzhie i dilemmy mezhdunarodnoi bezopasnosti [Nuclear Weapons and International Security Dilemmas]. Mirovaya ekonomika i mezhdunarodnye otnosheniya, 1985, no 4, p. 20.

DOI: https://doi.org/10.33917/es-3.183.2022.26-37

In this paper, an attempt is made to develop a mathematical model of population growth, based on socio-economic factors of the development of the countries’ community, as well as population migration. The author presents intermediate results of his review where he studies economic community, characterized by a very uneven development of regions. Mathematical model is proposed in which a conditional “center” and “periphery” (“global city” and “world village”) are distinguished. From the analysis of the existing socio-economic conditions of development it follows that “periphery” traditionally acts as a demographic donor for the “center”. Examples of such systems include, in particular, relations of the EU-Baltic republics, the EU-Ukraine, and Russia–EAEU countries. As an explanatory principle, it is proposed to use the concept of “institutional trap”. From the mathematical model point of view, this means rigidly fixed coefficients of connection between the system elements implementing one-way connection (toward the “center”). Possible mechanisms, influencing the dynamics of the system through adopting appropriate managerial decisions, are discussed. Obtained results prove the importance of adequate mathematical models for optimizing the strategic management of society.

Источники:

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