DOI: 10.33917/es-1.193.2024.36-41

In modern economic conditions, the study of competitive potential of the machine-building complex of the Republic of Belarus allows us to assess the prospects for growth of the potential share of domestic producers in foreign markets, increase the share of high-tech exports, as well as to elaborate a strategy for developing mechanical engineering complex taking into account micro- and macroenvironmental factors. To achieve the objectives, the authors propose methodological approaches to studying the competitive potential of the machine-building complex of the Republic of Belarus, the peculiarity of which is the optimal combination of theoretical and methodological tools for analyzing competitiveness based on domestic and foreign experience.

References:

1. Bakirova E.Yu. Teoreticheskie osnovy upravleniya razvitiem proizvodstva v regione [Theoretical Basis for Managing Production Development in the Region]. Obshchestvo: politika, ekonomika, parvo, 2014, no 1, pp. 82–85.

2. Diagramma Isikavy kak metod analiza problem kompanii [Ishikawa Diagram as a Method for Analyzing Company Problems], available at: https:// cyberleninka.ru/article/n/diagramma-isikavy-kak-metod-analiza-problem-kompanii

3. List of exporters for the selected product. ITC, available at: https://www.trademap.org/Country_SelProduct_TS

DOI: 10.33917/es-1.193.2024.26-35

The article examines the prospects for hydrocarbon, renewable and nuclear energy in Uzbekistan. Results of forecasting the dynamics of oil, gas and uranium production until the middle of the 21st century and then are presented. The authors substantiate the conclusion that nuclear generation, having economic and environmental advantages, is competitive in the long term only if two-component nuclear energy is developed due to the exhaustibility of uranium in Uzbekistan.

References:

1. GDP per capita (current US$) — Uzbekistan. The World Bank Data, available at: https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NY.GDP.PCAP.CD?locations = UZ

2. The World Factbook — Uzbekistan. CIA. URL: https://www.cia.gov/the-world-factbook/countries/uzbekistan/

3. Muinov D.A., Kostyuchenko Z.M. Strategicheskie napravleniya razvitiya promyshlennosti Uzbekistana na perspektivu [Strategic Directions of the Industry Development in Uzbekistan for the Future]. Ekonomika: analizy i prognozy, 2019, no 1, pp. 63–68.

4. Otkrytye dannye — Promyshlennost’ [Open Data – Industry]. Agentstvo statistiki pri Prezidente Respubliki Uzbekistan, available at: https://stat.uz/ru/ofitsialnaya-statistika/industry

5. BP Statistical Review of World Energy 2022. Uckfield, Pureprint Group Ltd., 2022, 60 p.

6. Uranium in Uzbekistan. WNA, available at: https://world-nuclear.org/information-library/country-profiles/countries-t-z/uzbekistan.aspx

7. Data and Statistics. IEA, available at: https://www.iea.org/data-and-statistics/data-browser?country = UZBEKISTAN

8. Kharitonov V.V., Ul’yanin Yu.A., Sliva D.E. Analiticheskoe modelirovanie dinamiki ischerpaniya nevozobnovlyaemykh traditsionnykh energeticheskikh resursov [Analytical Modeling of the Depletion Dynamics for Non-Renewable Traditional Energy Resources]. Vestnik NIYaU MIFI, 2019, vol. 8, no 3, pp. 298–307.

9. Statistika po global’nomu energeticheskomu perekhodu [Global Energy Transition Statistics]. Dannye o mirovoy energetike i klimate. Ezhegodnik-2021, available at: https://yearbook.enerdata.ru

10. The International Renewable Energy Agency (IRENA). Finance & Investment, available at: https://www.irena.org/financeinvestment. Statistics Time

Series.

11. A carbon-neutral electricity sector in Uzbekistan. Summary for policymakers. Birmingham, Corporate Solutions Limited, 13 p.

12. Ivanov G.A., Voloshin N.P., Ganeev A.S., et al. Vzryvnaya deyterievaya energetika. Snezhinsk, RFYaTs-VNIITF, 2004, 288 p.

13. Energy Return on Investment. World Nuclear Association, available at: https://world-nuclear.org/information-library/energy-and-the-environment/energyreturn-

on-investment.aspx

14. Uzbekistan Power Sector Master Plan. Vol. 1 to 3, Mott MacDonald & Corporate Solutions, 2019, available at: https://www.mottmac.com/releases/uzbekistanspower-

sector-masterplan-commits-to-clean-energy

15. Mineral Requirements for Electricity Generation. World Nuclear Association, available at: https://world-nuclear.org/information-library/energy-and-theenvironment/

DOI: 10.33917/es-1.193.2024.18-25

Article explains current status of the Japanese nuclear industry as for mid 2023. It unveils political and economic factors and directions of its renaissance 12 year after the Fukushima Dai-Ichi NPP disaster in 2011. The contradiction of this process and the declared by the Japanese government Green Transformation (GX) initiative is underlined. Article lists limits of political, economic, technological and social nature which will define the actual success of the proposed nuclear program. Creation of the industrial and technological as well as political and social base of the fusion energy and fusion manufacturing industries is considered as the strategic reason for pushing the nuclear renaissance through these limits, as the way to the global leadership and domination of the Japanese ‘Society 5.0’. Special attention is paid to the strong will of the Japanese government to pragmatically sacrifices democratic values, concentrate all available resources, and set ambitious targets to win in this sumo fight and be first to build ‘thermonuclear Japan’. Also the specific side of the nuclear energy development — building up the Japanese nuclear weapon potential — is considered as the way to mitigate both geo- and technopolitical risks.

References:

1. G7 Hiroshima Leaders’ Communiqué [Website]. 2023, May, 20, available at: https://www.g7hiroshima.go.jp/documents/pdf/Leaders_Communique_01_en.pdf

2. Japan takes the lead in collaboration on the global energy transition. (Paid for and created by Government of Japan). Reuters Plus, available at: https://www.reuters.com/plus/japan-takes-the-lead-in-collaboration-on-the-global-energy-transition

3. Сarbon neutrality. Global Issues. Government of Japan [Website], available at: https://www.japan.go.jp/global_issues/carbon_neutrality/index.html

4. Overview of the Japanese Green Transformation (GX). GR Japan [Website]. 2023, January, available at: https://grjapan.com/sites/default/files/content/

articles/files/gr_japan_overview_of_gx_plans_january_2023.pdf

5. Towards Green Transformation (GX). Main points. (Provisional translation). Keidanren [Website]. 2022, May, 17, available at: https://www.keidanren.or.jp/en/policy/2022/043_point.pdf

6. Kishida eyes nuclear plant restart in green transformation push. The Japan Times, 2022, July, 28, available at: https://www.japantimes.co.jp/news/2022/07/28/business/koichi-hagiuda-green-minister-post/

7. Innovatsionnaya strategiya termoyadernoy energetiki [Innovative strategy for fusion energy]. Kabinet ministrov Yaponii, 2023, 14 aprelya, available at:

https://www8.cao.go.jp/cstp/fusion/fusion_senryaku.pdf

8. Integrated Innovation Strategy. Cabinet of Japan, 2022. June, 3, available at: https://www8.cao.go.jp/cstp/english/strategy_2022.pdf

9. Outline of Strategic Energy Plan. Agency for Natural Resources and Energy of Japan, 2021, October, available at: https://www.enecho.meti.go.jp/en/category/others/basic_plan/pdf/6th_outline.pdf

DOI: 10.33917/es-1.193.2024.12-17

The problem of the economic policies ontology is examined. Paradigms define practices and scenarios for the future.

Crisis of the “mainstream” and the polymorphic structure of the world economy imply an intensive search for new theoretical and practical solutions.

References:

[1–8] in № 6(192)/2023, p. 51.

9. Ageev A.I. Predprinimatel’stvo: problemy sobstvennosti i kul’tury [Entrepreneurship: Issues of Property and Culture]. Moscow, Nauka, 1991, Glava 3.

10. Glaz’ev S.Yu. Za gorizontom kontsa istorii [Beyond the Horizon of the History End]. Moscow, Prospekt, 2021, pp. 382–388.

11. Bodrunov S.D. Noonomika [Noonomics]. Moscow, Kul’turnaya revolyutsiya, 2018.

12. Bodrunov S.D. Nooindustrial’noe obshchestvo: shag k neekonomicheskomu razvitiyu [New Industrial Society: A Step Toward Non-Economic Development]. Ekonomicheskoe vozrozhdenie Rossii, 2018, no 1(55), pp. 5–15.

13. Meadows D., et al. The Limits to Growth. N.Y., 1972.

14. Mesarovic М., Pestel Е. Mankind at the Turning Point. N.Y., 1974.

15. Tinbergen J. Reshaping the International Order. N.Y., 1976.

16. Meadows D. Beyond the Limits. Vermont, 1992.

17. Ageev A.I., Gromov V.A., Lukovnikova N.M., Pereslegin S.B., et al. Spletennyy mir: russkiy doklad Rimskomu klubu: Proektirovanie budushchego.

Problemy tsifrovoy real’nosti (2–3 fevralya 2023 g., Moskva) [The Woven World: Russian Report to the Club of Rome: Designing the Future. Problems of digital reality (February 2–3, 2023, Moscow)]. Pod red. G.G. Malinetskogo. Moscow, IPM im. M.V. Keldysha, 2023, 360 p., pp. 97–120.

18. Ageev A.I. Spletennyy mir: global’nye vyzovy I sverkhvyzovy: Ekonomika Rossii i mira v epokhu smeny mirokhozyaystvennykh ukladov: teoriya, metodologiya, praktika: Sb. tezisov dokladov uchastnikov XV Pushchinskogo simpoziuma po evolyutsionnoy ekonomike [The Intertwined World: Global

Challenges and Super-challenges: The Economy of Russia and the World in the Era of Changing World Economic Structures: Theory, Methodology, Practice: Sat. abstracts of reports of participants of the XV Pushchino Symposium on Evolutionary Economics]. Moscow, IE RAN, 2023, 170 p., pp. 93–95.

19. Ageev A.I., Gromov V.A., Kamionskiy S.A., Pereslegin S.B., et al. Spletennyy mir: koshka perevernulas’: Doklad Rimskomu klubu: Rezyume doklada [The Intertwined World: The Cat Turned Over: Report to the Club of Rome: Summary of the Report]. Moscow, MNIIPU, 2023, 52 p.

DOI: 10.33917/es-6.192.2023.46-51

The problem of the economic policies ontology is examined. Paradigms define practices and scenarios for the future. Crisis of the “mainstream” and the polymorphic structure of the world economy imply an intensive search for new theoretical and practical solutions.

References:

1. Smolyan G.L. Refleksivnoe upravlenie — tekhnologiya prinyatiya manipulyativnykh resheniy [Reflexive Management — Technology for Making Manipulative Decisions]. Trudy ISA RAN, 2013, vol. 63, no 2. Tsentr gumanitarnykh tekhnologiy, 2016, 25 sentyabrya, available at: https://gtmarket.ru/library/articles/7309

2. Lepsky Vladimir E. Reflexive Control in Multi-Subjective and Multi-Agent Systems. Proceedigs of the Workshop on Multi-Reflexive Models of Agent Behavior. ARL-SR-64, May 1999, pp. 111–117.

3. Ageev A.I., Kuroedov B.V., Met’yuz R., Sandarov O.S. Metodologiya strategicheskoy matritsy [Strategic Matrix Methodology]. Monografiya. Moscow, INES, 2004, 152 p. (Strategicheskoe prevoskhodstvo. Seriya MLSU)

4. Global’nyy reyting integral’noy moshchi 100 stran: Doklad-2012 [Global Rating of Integral Power of 100 Countries: Report 2012]. 3-e izd., pererab. i dop. Moscow, Mezhdunarodnaya akademiya issledovaniy budushchego, Institut ekonomicheskikh strategiy, 2012, 108 p.

5. Strategiya natsional’noy bezopasnosti SShA 2022 [US National Security Strategy 2022]. Rossiyskiy pravovoy portal: Biblioteka Pashkova. 2011. 16 marta.

URL: https://constitutions.ru/?p=5292

6. Ponomarev V.P. Polimorfnaya gamma-shkala ekonomicheskogo razvitiya [Polymorphic Gamma-Scale of Economic Development]. Ekonomicheskie strategii, 2022, vol. 24, no 1, pp. 106–111, DOI: https://doi.org/10.33917/es-1.181.2022.106-111

7. Mityaev D.A. O dinamike samorazrusheniya mirovoy finansovoy sistemy (stsenarii i strategii). Vozmozhnosti adaptatsii i vybor strategii dlya Rossii: Stsenarno-igrovoy doklad [On the Dynamics of Self-Destruction of the Global Financial System (Scenarios and Strategies). Adaptation Possibilities and Choice of Strategy for Russia: Scenario-Game Report]. Moscow, INES, 2009, 61 p.

8. Ageev A.I., Loginov E.L. New Deal — 2008 — “novaya sdacha”. Bludnye ucheniki Franklina Ruzvel’ta [New Deal — 2008 — “New Change”. Franklin Roosevelt’s Prodigal Disciples]. Ekonomicheskie strategii, 2009, vol. 11, no 2, pp. 31–36.

DOI: 10.33917/es-6.192.2023.40-45

The reasons for Russia’s unique success in relieving the sanctions shocks of 2022 and signs of its plunge into prolonged sanctions stress from 2023 are described. It is shown that Russia has exhausted the advantages of a “big country” in increasing macro-financial stability, and its model of recovery growth creates imbalances that aggravate sanctions deformations.

References:

1. Hufbauer G.C., Schott J.J., Elliott K.A. Economic sanctions reconsidered. Washington, DC, Peterson Institute for International Economics, 2009.

2. Morgan T.C., Syropoulos C., Yotov Y.V. Economic sanctions: Evolution, consequences, and challenges. Journal of Economic Perspectives, 2023. Vol. 37. No. 1. P. 3–29.

3. Mulder N. The economic weapon: The rise of sanctions as a tool of modern war. New Haven, Yale University Press, 2022.

4. Felbermayr G., Morgan T.C., Syropoulos C., Yotov Y.V. Understanding economic sanctions: Interdisciplinary perspectives on theory and evidence. European Economic Review, 2021, vol. 135, no 1, p. 103720.

5. Chowdhry S., Hinz J., Kamin K., Wanner J. Brothers in arms: The value of coalitions in sanctions regimes. Kiel Working Papers, 2022, no 2234.

6. Russia Sanctions Dashboard. Castellum.AI, available at: https://www.castellum.ai/russia-sanctions-dashboard

7. Smorodinskaya N.V., Katukov D.D. Rossiya v usloviyakh sanktsii: predely adaptatsii [Russia under Sanctions: Limits of Adaptation]. Vestnik Instituta ekonomiki RAN, 2022, no 6, pp. 52–67.

8. Sal’nikov V.A., Galimov D.I., Gnidchenko A.A. O promezhutochnykh itogakh razvitiya promyshlennosti s nachala 2022 g.: proizvodstvo i investitsii [On the Interim Results of Industrial Development since the Beginning of 2022: Production and Investment]. Trinadtsat’ tezisov ob ekonomike, 2023, no 3.

9. Bank Rossii. O chem govoryat trendy [Bank of Russia. What are the trends saying?]. Byulleten’ Departamenta issledovanii i prognozirovaniya, 2023, no 5.

10. Russia Hikes Interest Rates Despite World’s Biggest Currency Surge. Bloomberg, available at: https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-10-27/

russia-hikes-rate-sharply-despite-world-s-biggest-currency-surge

11. Gutmann J., Neuenkirch M., Neumeier F. The economic effects of international sanctions: An event study. Journal of Comparative Economics, 2023, vol. 180, pp. 1–18.

DOI: 10.33917/es-6.192.2023.16-29

The development of the world economy in modern conditions is being transformed under the influence of a number of factors, which are both man-made and caused by the imperfection of the system of economic relations that have developed as a result of the absolute denial of state regulation and attempts to replace it with supranational rules. The basic determinants were the recommendations of the Washington Consensus (1992), aimed at accelerating the transition to a market economy of transformational economies after the collapse of the USSR. In the early 2000s, a similar approach was extended to all developing economies. This made it possible to accelerate the process of economic globalization, which was fundamentally based on the internationalization of reproductive value chains. The development of the world community along the path of polycentrism determines the transformation of economic globalization in terms of both driving forces and regional localization.

The purpose of this article is to analyze the transformation of economic globalization in the context of the transition from an American-centric model of the world economy to a multipolar structure of the world community.

References:

1. Anan’in O., Khaitkulov R., Shestakov D. Vashingtonskiy konsensus: peyzazh posle bitv [Washington Consensus: Landscape after the Battles]. Mirovaya ekonomika i mezhdunarodnye otnosheniya, 2010, no 12, pp. 15–27, available at: https://doi.org/10.20542/0131-2227-2010-12-15-27

2. A world of debt. A growing burden to global prosperit y 2023. Unctad, available at: https://unctad.org/publication/world-of-debt

3. Struktura VVP SShA po sektoram ekonomiki v 1975–2010 godakh [Structure of US GDP by Economic Sector in 1975–2010]. Politicheskiy atlas sovremennosti, available at: http://www.hyno.ru/tom3/1089.html

4. Tessa Smith.Dying Cities: 10 Big U.S. Cities That Are Shrinking at an Alarming Rate. MSN, available at: https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/realestate/

dying-cities-10-big-u-s-cities-that-are-shrinking-at-an-alarming-rate/ss-AA1eGfQ

5. Countries in the world by population. Worldometers, 2023. URL: https://www.worldometers.info/world-population/population-by-country/

6. Perskaya V.V., Eskindarov M.A. Politsentrizm [Polycentrism]. Moscow, KURS, 2022, 288 p.

7. Human Development Report 2021–2022. Brookings, November 4, 2022, available at: https://www.brookings.edu/blog/future-development/2022/11/04/human-development-in-an-age-of-uncertainty/?utm_campaign=Global Economy

8. Global Value Chains. The World Bank, available at: https://www.worldbank.org/en/topic/global-value-chains

9. Giorgia Giovannetti, Enrico Marvasi & Giorgio Ricchiuti. The Future of Global Value Chains and International Trade: An EU Perspective. Italian Economic Journal, 2023, available at: https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s40797-023-00252-4

10. OESR ozhidaet rosta mirovogo VVP v 2023 godu na 3% [The OECD Expects Global GDP to Grow by 3% in 2023]. Interfax.ru, available at: https://www.interfax.ru/busness/921478

DOI: 10.33917/es-6.192.2023.16-29

The author shows that global warming is determined not by human activity, but by natural phenomena – primarily by a decrease in the inclination angle of the Earth’s rotation axis, changing the insolation of the polar/equatorial regions and, as a consequence, the intensity of meridional atmospheric-oceanic heat and mass transfer. The article presents results of measurements of the neutrino flux from the decay of the potassium-40 isotope, which confirmed the potassium content predicted by the theory of a hydrogen Earth, the flux of radiogenic heat from which must be taken into account in climate calculations. The article presents the results of experimental studies of hydrogen degassing from the depths of the Earth – the cause of the destruction of atmospheric ozone, the content of which in turn determines the temperature and pressure of the surface air. Spatial and temporal correlations of hydrogen degassing and ozone destruction, as well as the influence of gravitational forces of the Moon and the Sun on degassing, make it possible for the first time to make long-term forecasts of meteorological changes and the occurrence of climate disasters. The author substantiates the need for changes in climate and energy policy.

References:

1. Sherstyukov B.G. Global’noe poteplenie i ego vozmozhnye prichiny [Global Warming and its Possible Reasons]. Gidrometeorologiya i ekologiya, 2023, no 70, pp. 7–37, DOI: 10.33933/2713-3001-2023-70-7-37

2. Syvorotkin V.L. Neskonchaemaya tsep’ prestuplenii Monreal’skogo protokola [Never-Ending Chain of the Montreal Protocol Crimes]. IA Regnum, 2017, available at: https://regnum-ru.turbopages.org/regnum.ru/s/news/2302128.html

3. Callendar G.S. The artificial production of carbon dioxide and its influence on temperature. Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society, 1938, vol. 64, no 275, pp. 223–240.

4. Keeling C.D. The Concentration and Isotopic Abundances of Carbon Dioxide in the Atmosphere. Tellus, 1960.

5. Schneider S.H., Azar C. Are Uncertainties in Climate and Energy Systems a Justification for Stronger Near-term Mitigation Policies? In Erlich, E. (ed.), Proceedings of the Pew Center Workshop on The Timing of Climate Change Policies. 2001. Washington D.C., 11, 12 October 2001, pp. 85–136, available at:

https://stephenschneider.stanford.edu/Publications/PDF_Papers/timingazarschneide.pdf

6. Schneider S H. The greenhouse effect: Science and policy. Science, 1989, vol. 243, pp. 771–781.

7. Schneide S.H. News Plays Fast and Loose With the Facts. Editorial. Detroit News, 1989, 5 December. 10A, available at: https://stephenschneider.stanford.edu/Publications/PDF_Papers/DetroitNews.pdf

8. Smirnov B.M. Fizika global’noi atmosfery. Parnikovyi effekt, atmosfernoe elektrichestvo, evolyutsiya klimata [Physics of the Global Atmosphere. Greenhouse Effect, Atmospheric Electricity, Climate Evolution]. Dolgoprudnyi, Intellekt, 2017, 256 p.

9. Demirchyan K.S., Kondrat’ev K.Ya., Demirchyan K.K. Global’noe poteplenie i “politika” ego predotvrashcheniya [Global Warming and the “Policy” of its Prevention]. Biosfera, 2010, vol. 2, no 4, pp. 488–502.

DOI: 10.33917/es-6.192.2023.6-15

Today there is virtually no doubt that the 21st century will become a time of struggle for global economic leadership. The USA and China have already entered into this intense competition. Russia is also demonstrating signs of geopolitical subjectivity. However, its economic potential is still significantly lower than that of both the USA and China. Therefore, the present article raises the question of the factors for building up such potential in accordance with current technological challenges. The authors formulate and justify the factors for spreading promising general-purpose technologies in the national economy. They provide an assessment of the presence and scale of each factor’s influence in the modern Russian economy, and also outline ways for strengthening such influence in order to create the most favourable conditions for introduction and scaling of advanced technologies in the industrial sector of the Russian Federation.

References:

1. Tolkachev S.A., Teplyakov A.Yu. Tekhnologicheskie i regulyatornye tsikly v mirokhozyaystvennom razvitii: istoriko-ekonomicheskaya retrospektiva [Technological and Regulatory Cycles in World Economic Development: Historical and Economic Retrospective]. Terra Economicus, 2022, vol 20, no 3, pp. 72–86.

2. Tolkachev S.A., Teplyakov A.Yu. Tekhnologicheskiy megatsikl i tekhnologicheskie prognozy [Technological Megacycle and Technological Forecasts]. Ekonomicheskie strategii, 2022, vol. 24, no 6(186), pp. 66–75, DOI: https://doi.org/10.33917/es-6.186.2022.66-75

3. Marks K. Kapital. Kritika politicheskoy ekonomii [Capital. Criticism of Political Economy]. Marxists.org, vol. 1, available at: https://www.marxists.org/russkij/marx/1867/capital_vol1/59.htm

4. Khiks Dzh. Teoriya ekonomicheskoy istorii [Theory of Economic History]. Per. s angl. pod obshch. red. R.M. Nureeva. Moscow, 2003.

5. Veduta E. Krovavoe shestvie zolotogo standarta k Pervoy mirovoy voyne. Chast’ IV [Bloody March of the Gold Standard to the First World War. Part IV]. REGNUM, 2019, 29 aprelya, available at: https://regnum.ru/article/2620925

6. Nechvolodov A.V. Ot razoreniya k dostatku [From Ruin to Prosperity]. Saint Petersburg, Tipografiya shtaba voysk Gvardii i Peterburgskogo voennogo okruga,1906.

7. Katasonov V. K ocherednomu yubileyu amerikanskogo Tsentrobanka [To the Next Anniversary of the American Central Bank]. Fond strategicheskoy kul’tury, 2023, 4 yanvarya, available at: https://fondsk.ru/news/2023/01/04/k-ocherednomu-jubileju-amerikanskogo-centrobanka.html

8. Neftedollary protiv gazorubley [Petrodollars Versus Gas Rubles]. Kommersant”, 2022, 15 aprelya, available at: https://www.kommersant.ru/doc/5305376

9. Berdyshev A.V., Sopov D.K. Issledovanie dinamiki koeffitsienta monetizatsii ekonomiki Rossii i ego vliyaniya na makroekonomicheskie pokazateli [Study of the

Dynamics of the Monetization Coefficient of the Russian Economy and Its Influence on Macroeconomic Indicators]. Vestnik universiteta, 2022, no 9, pp. 145–152.