DOI: 10.33917/es-6.192.2023.46-51

The problem of the economic policies ontology is examined. Paradigms define practices and scenarios for the future. Crisis of the “mainstream” and the polymorphic structure of the world economy imply an intensive search for new theoretical and practical solutions.

References:

1. Smolyan G.L. Refleksivnoe upravlenie — tekhnologiya prinyatiya manipulyativnykh resheniy [Reflexive Management — Technology for Making Manipulative Decisions]. Trudy ISA RAN, 2013, vol. 63, no 2. Tsentr gumanitarnykh tekhnologiy, 2016, 25 sentyabrya, available at: https://gtmarket.ru/library/articles/7309

2. Lepsky Vladimir E. Reflexive Control in Multi-Subjective and Multi-Agent Systems. Proceedigs of the Workshop on Multi-Reflexive Models of Agent Behavior. ARL-SR-64, May 1999, pp. 111–117.

3. Ageev A.I., Kuroedov B.V., Met’yuz R., Sandarov O.S. Metodologiya strategicheskoy matritsy [Strategic Matrix Methodology]. Monografiya. Moscow, INES, 2004, 152 p. (Strategicheskoe prevoskhodstvo. Seriya MLSU)

4. Global’nyy reyting integral’noy moshchi 100 stran: Doklad-2012 [Global Rating of Integral Power of 100 Countries: Report 2012]. 3-e izd., pererab. i dop. Moscow, Mezhdunarodnaya akademiya issledovaniy budushchego, Institut ekonomicheskikh strategiy, 2012, 108 p.

5. Strategiya natsional’noy bezopasnosti SShA 2022 [US National Security Strategy 2022]. Rossiyskiy pravovoy portal: Biblioteka Pashkova. 2011. 16 marta.

URL: https://constitutions.ru/?p=5292

6. Ponomarev V.P. Polimorfnaya gamma-shkala ekonomicheskogo razvitiya [Polymorphic Gamma-Scale of Economic Development]. Ekonomicheskie strategii, 2022, vol. 24, no 1, pp. 106–111, DOI: https://doi.org/10.33917/es-1.181.2022.106-111

7. Mityaev D.A. O dinamike samorazrusheniya mirovoy finansovoy sistemy (stsenarii i strategii). Vozmozhnosti adaptatsii i vybor strategii dlya Rossii: Stsenarno-igrovoy doklad [On the Dynamics of Self-Destruction of the Global Financial System (Scenarios and Strategies). Adaptation Possibilities and Choice of Strategy for Russia: Scenario-Game Report]. Moscow, INES, 2009, 61 p.

8. Ageev A.I., Loginov E.L. New Deal — 2008 — “novaya sdacha”. Bludnye ucheniki Franklina Ruzvel’ta [New Deal — 2008 — “New Change”. Franklin Roosevelt’s Prodigal Disciples]. Ekonomicheskie strategii, 2009, vol. 11, no 2, pp. 31–36.

DOI: 10.33917/es-6.192.2023.40-45

The reasons for Russia’s unique success in relieving the sanctions shocks of 2022 and signs of its plunge into prolonged sanctions stress from 2023 are described. It is shown that Russia has exhausted the advantages of a “big country” in increasing macro-financial stability, and its model of recovery growth creates imbalances that aggravate sanctions deformations.

References:

1. Hufbauer G.C., Schott J.J., Elliott K.A. Economic sanctions reconsidered. Washington, DC, Peterson Institute for International Economics, 2009.

2. Morgan T.C., Syropoulos C., Yotov Y.V. Economic sanctions: Evolution, consequences, and challenges. Journal of Economic Perspectives, 2023. Vol. 37. No. 1. P. 3–29.

3. Mulder N. The economic weapon: The rise of sanctions as a tool of modern war. New Haven, Yale University Press, 2022.

4. Felbermayr G., Morgan T.C., Syropoulos C., Yotov Y.V. Understanding economic sanctions: Interdisciplinary perspectives on theory and evidence. European Economic Review, 2021, vol. 135, no 1, p. 103720.

5. Chowdhry S., Hinz J., Kamin K., Wanner J. Brothers in arms: The value of coalitions in sanctions regimes. Kiel Working Papers, 2022, no 2234.

6. Russia Sanctions Dashboard. Castellum.AI, available at: https://www.castellum.ai/russia-sanctions-dashboard

7. Smorodinskaya N.V., Katukov D.D. Rossiya v usloviyakh sanktsii: predely adaptatsii [Russia under Sanctions: Limits of Adaptation]. Vestnik Instituta ekonomiki RAN, 2022, no 6, pp. 52–67.

8. Sal’nikov V.A., Galimov D.I., Gnidchenko A.A. O promezhutochnykh itogakh razvitiya promyshlennosti s nachala 2022 g.: proizvodstvo i investitsii [On the Interim Results of Industrial Development since the Beginning of 2022: Production and Investment]. Trinadtsat’ tezisov ob ekonomike, 2023, no 3.

9. Bank Rossii. O chem govoryat trendy [Bank of Russia. What are the trends saying?]. Byulleten’ Departamenta issledovanii i prognozirovaniya, 2023, no 5.

10. Russia Hikes Interest Rates Despite World’s Biggest Currency Surge. Bloomberg, available at: https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-10-27/

russia-hikes-rate-sharply-despite-world-s-biggest-currency-surge

11. Gutmann J., Neuenkirch M., Neumeier F. The economic effects of international sanctions: An event study. Journal of Comparative Economics, 2023, vol. 180, pp. 1–18.

DOI: 10.33917/es-6.192.2023.16-29

The development of the world economy in modern conditions is being transformed under the influence of a number of factors, which are both man-made and caused by the imperfection of the system of economic relations that have developed as a result of the absolute denial of state regulation and attempts to replace it with supranational rules. The basic determinants were the recommendations of the Washington Consensus (1992), aimed at accelerating the transition to a market economy of transformational economies after the collapse of the USSR. In the early 2000s, a similar approach was extended to all developing economies. This made it possible to accelerate the process of economic globalization, which was fundamentally based on the internationalization of reproductive value chains. The development of the world community along the path of polycentrism determines the transformation of economic globalization in terms of both driving forces and regional localization.

The purpose of this article is to analyze the transformation of economic globalization in the context of the transition from an American-centric model of the world economy to a multipolar structure of the world community.

References:

1. Anan’in O., Khaitkulov R., Shestakov D. Vashingtonskiy konsensus: peyzazh posle bitv [Washington Consensus: Landscape after the Battles]. Mirovaya ekonomika i mezhdunarodnye otnosheniya, 2010, no 12, pp. 15–27, available at: https://doi.org/10.20542/0131-2227-2010-12-15-27

2. A world of debt. A growing burden to global prosperit y 2023. Unctad, available at: https://unctad.org/publication/world-of-debt

3. Struktura VVP SShA po sektoram ekonomiki v 1975–2010 godakh [Structure of US GDP by Economic Sector in 1975–2010]. Politicheskiy atlas sovremennosti, available at: http://www.hyno.ru/tom3/1089.html

4. Tessa Smith.Dying Cities: 10 Big U.S. Cities That Are Shrinking at an Alarming Rate. MSN, available at: https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/realestate/

dying-cities-10-big-u-s-cities-that-are-shrinking-at-an-alarming-rate/ss-AA1eGfQ

5. Countries in the world by population. Worldometers, 2023. URL: https://www.worldometers.info/world-population/population-by-country/

6. Perskaya V.V., Eskindarov M.A. Politsentrizm [Polycentrism]. Moscow, KURS, 2022, 288 p.

7. Human Development Report 2021–2022. Brookings, November 4, 2022, available at: https://www.brookings.edu/blog/future-development/2022/11/04/human-development-in-an-age-of-uncertainty/?utm_campaign=Global Economy

8. Global Value Chains. The World Bank, available at: https://www.worldbank.org/en/topic/global-value-chains

9. Giorgia Giovannetti, Enrico Marvasi & Giorgio Ricchiuti. The Future of Global Value Chains and International Trade: An EU Perspective. Italian Economic Journal, 2023, available at: https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s40797-023-00252-4

10. OESR ozhidaet rosta mirovogo VVP v 2023 godu na 3% [The OECD Expects Global GDP to Grow by 3% in 2023]. Interfax.ru, available at: https://www.interfax.ru/busness/921478

DOI: 10.33917/es-6.192.2023.16-29

The author shows that global warming is determined not by human activity, but by natural phenomena – primarily by a decrease in the inclination angle of the Earth’s rotation axis, changing the insolation of the polar/equatorial regions and, as a consequence, the intensity of meridional atmospheric-oceanic heat and mass transfer. The article presents results of measurements of the neutrino flux from the decay of the potassium-40 isotope, which confirmed the potassium content predicted by the theory of a hydrogen Earth, the flux of radiogenic heat from which must be taken into account in climate calculations. The article presents the results of experimental studies of hydrogen degassing from the depths of the Earth – the cause of the destruction of atmospheric ozone, the content of which in turn determines the temperature and pressure of the surface air. Spatial and temporal correlations of hydrogen degassing and ozone destruction, as well as the influence of gravitational forces of the Moon and the Sun on degassing, make it possible for the first time to make long-term forecasts of meteorological changes and the occurrence of climate disasters. The author substantiates the need for changes in climate and energy policy.

References:

1. Sherstyukov B.G. Global’noe poteplenie i ego vozmozhnye prichiny [Global Warming and its Possible Reasons]. Gidrometeorologiya i ekologiya, 2023, no 70, pp. 7–37, DOI: 10.33933/2713-3001-2023-70-7-37

2. Syvorotkin V.L. Neskonchaemaya tsep’ prestuplenii Monreal’skogo protokola [Never-Ending Chain of the Montreal Protocol Crimes]. IA Regnum, 2017, available at: https://regnum-ru.turbopages.org/regnum.ru/s/news/2302128.html

3. Callendar G.S. The artificial production of carbon dioxide and its influence on temperature. Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society, 1938, vol. 64, no 275, pp. 223–240.

4. Keeling C.D. The Concentration and Isotopic Abundances of Carbon Dioxide in the Atmosphere. Tellus, 1960.

5. Schneider S.H., Azar C. Are Uncertainties in Climate and Energy Systems a Justification for Stronger Near-term Mitigation Policies? In Erlich, E. (ed.), Proceedings of the Pew Center Workshop on The Timing of Climate Change Policies. 2001. Washington D.C., 11, 12 October 2001, pp. 85–136, available at:

https://stephenschneider.stanford.edu/Publications/PDF_Papers/timingazarschneide.pdf

6. Schneider S H. The greenhouse effect: Science and policy. Science, 1989, vol. 243, pp. 771–781.

7. Schneide S.H. News Plays Fast and Loose With the Facts. Editorial. Detroit News, 1989, 5 December. 10A, available at: https://stephenschneider.stanford.edu/Publications/PDF_Papers/DetroitNews.pdf

8. Smirnov B.M. Fizika global’noi atmosfery. Parnikovyi effekt, atmosfernoe elektrichestvo, evolyutsiya klimata [Physics of the Global Atmosphere. Greenhouse Effect, Atmospheric Electricity, Climate Evolution]. Dolgoprudnyi, Intellekt, 2017, 256 p.

9. Demirchyan K.S., Kondrat’ev K.Ya., Demirchyan K.K. Global’noe poteplenie i “politika” ego predotvrashcheniya [Global Warming and the “Policy” of its Prevention]. Biosfera, 2010, vol. 2, no 4, pp. 488–502.

DOI: 10.33917/es-6.192.2023.6-15

Today there is virtually no doubt that the 21st century will become a time of struggle for global economic leadership. The USA and China have already entered into this intense competition. Russia is also demonstrating signs of geopolitical subjectivity. However, its economic potential is still significantly lower than that of both the USA and China. Therefore, the present article raises the question of the factors for building up such potential in accordance with current technological challenges. The authors formulate and justify the factors for spreading promising general-purpose technologies in the national economy. They provide an assessment of the presence and scale of each factor’s influence in the modern Russian economy, and also outline ways for strengthening such influence in order to create the most favourable conditions for introduction and scaling of advanced technologies in the industrial sector of the Russian Federation.

References:

1. Tolkachev S.A., Teplyakov A.Yu. Tekhnologicheskie i regulyatornye tsikly v mirokhozyaystvennom razvitii: istoriko-ekonomicheskaya retrospektiva [Technological and Regulatory Cycles in World Economic Development: Historical and Economic Retrospective]. Terra Economicus, 2022, vol 20, no 3, pp. 72–86.

2. Tolkachev S.A., Teplyakov A.Yu. Tekhnologicheskiy megatsikl i tekhnologicheskie prognozy [Technological Megacycle and Technological Forecasts]. Ekonomicheskie strategii, 2022, vol. 24, no 6(186), pp. 66–75, DOI: https://doi.org/10.33917/es-6.186.2022.66-75

3. Marks K. Kapital. Kritika politicheskoy ekonomii [Capital. Criticism of Political Economy]. Marxists.org, vol. 1, available at: https://www.marxists.org/russkij/marx/1867/capital_vol1/59.htm

4. Khiks Dzh. Teoriya ekonomicheskoy istorii [Theory of Economic History]. Per. s angl. pod obshch. red. R.M. Nureeva. Moscow, 2003.

5. Veduta E. Krovavoe shestvie zolotogo standarta k Pervoy mirovoy voyne. Chast’ IV [Bloody March of the Gold Standard to the First World War. Part IV]. REGNUM, 2019, 29 aprelya, available at: https://regnum.ru/article/2620925

6. Nechvolodov A.V. Ot razoreniya k dostatku [From Ruin to Prosperity]. Saint Petersburg, Tipografiya shtaba voysk Gvardii i Peterburgskogo voennogo okruga,1906.

7. Katasonov V. K ocherednomu yubileyu amerikanskogo Tsentrobanka [To the Next Anniversary of the American Central Bank]. Fond strategicheskoy kul’tury, 2023, 4 yanvarya, available at: https://fondsk.ru/news/2023/01/04/k-ocherednomu-jubileju-amerikanskogo-centrobanka.html

8. Neftedollary protiv gazorubley [Petrodollars Versus Gas Rubles]. Kommersant”, 2022, 15 aprelya, available at: https://www.kommersant.ru/doc/5305376

9. Berdyshev A.V., Sopov D.K. Issledovanie dinamiki koeffitsienta monetizatsii ekonomiki Rossii i ego vliyaniya na makroekonomicheskie pokazateli [Study of the

Dynamics of the Monetization Coefficient of the Russian Economy and Its Influence on Macroeconomic Indicators]. Vestnik universiteta, 2022, no 9, pp. 145–152.

DOI: 10.33917/es-5.191.2023.32-37

The article dwells on the role of Russian culture in the context of global transformations and emerging multipolarity. It is noted that the US line to neutralize cultural differences is utopian.

References:

1. Kartseva A.A. Dialog i vzaimodeistvie kul’tur kak uslovie sokhraneniya stabil’nosti sovremennogo sotsiuma [Dialogue and Interaction of Cultures as the Condition for Maintaining Stability of Modern Society]. Izvestiya Sankt-Peterburgskogo gosudarstvennogo agrarnogo universiteta, 2014, no 37, available at: https://cyberleninka.ru/article/v/vzaimodeystvie-i-dialog-cultur-kak-uslovie-sohraneniya-stabilnosti-sovremennogo-sotsiuma

2. Kontseptsiya gumanitarnoi politiki Rossiiskoi Federatsii za rubezhom [Concept of the Russian Federation’s Humanitarian Holicy Abroad], available at: static.kremlin.ru/media/events/files/ru/G3CkAuMhZXio8AzNaweT3wTGTaEA16OU.pdf

3. Vladimir Putin: Preslovutaya “kul’tura otmeny” prevratilas’ v “otmenu kul’tury” [Vladimir Putin: The Notorious “Cancellation Culture” has Turned into “Cancellation of Culture”] Rossiiskaya gazeta, 2022, Federal’nyi vypusk no 65(8713), available at: https://rg.ru/2022/03/28/vladimir-putin-preslovutaia-kulturaotmeny-prevratilas-v-otmenu-kultury.html

4. Prokof’ev V.I. “Bol’shoi balet vernulsya v Parizh” [“The Bolshoi Ballet has Returned to Paris”]. Rossiiskaya gazeta, 2023, 6 aprelya.

5. Mikhalkov N.S. “Kinoassorti dlya lyubitelei” [“Assorted Cinema for Lovers”]. Vechernyaya Moskva. Ezhednevnyi delovoi vypusk. Weekend, 2023, no 72(29406), 21 aprelya.

6. Vulf Virdzhiniya. Russkaya tochka zreniya [Woolf Virginia. The Russian Point of View], available at: http://www.apropospage.ru/herson/vulf/v7.html

7. Likhachev D.S. Russkaya kul’tura [Russian Culture]. Moscow, Iskusstvo, 2000, 428 p.

DOI: 10.33917/es-5.191.2023.28-31

The article briefly substantiates the need to change the vector of civilization development. The authors propose a concept of development, based on: complete renunciation of aggression in any form of its manifestation; progressive development of energy technologies; new discoveries designed to replace the planet’s resource base; exploration of near and far space.

DOI: 10.33917/es-5.191.2023.22-27

The magazine “Economic Strategies” continues to publish materials from the strategic expert community “Ust-Kachka” (SES “Ust-Kachka”). Previously published [1–3]. The Ust-Kachka ES was organized by representatives of 4 different Soviet analytical schools in 2012, and operates in the format of a “new generation thought factory” (“brain trust”, “smart tank”). The main product of the “thought factory” “Ust-Kachka” is a strategic scenario forecast in the World-Country-Region format in the areas of “PEST (M)” (Politics, Economics, Social Sphere, Technology, Multitrend) — the so-called “matrix PEST”. In addition to the forecast — Strategic Design Decisions for translating negative scenarios into target ones, Concepts, industry and regional development strategies. The work of the Ust-Kachka SES is carried out according to its own, unique methodology, the format of which is closest to “war games”. Experts from leading Russian clubs — Izborsky, Sretensky, Valdai, Pitirim Sorokin and others — participate in the work of Ust-Kachki. Over the 11 years of operation, SES “Ust-Kachka” has reached the horizons of its forecasts and, according to the “forecast-fact” criterion, is one of the leading “thought factories” in Russia.

References:

1. Zolotarev D.Yu. O tsiklakh, kul’turnoi slozhnosti, tsifrovoi ekonomike i promyshlennoi revolyutsii [On Cycles, Cultural Complexity, Digital Economy and Industrial Revolution]. Ekonomicheskie strategii, 2018, vol. 20, no 6, pp. 94–99.

2. Strategicheskoe ekspertnoe soobshchestvo “Ust’-Kachka” — 2018 [Strategic Expert Community Ust-Kachka — 2018]. Ekonomicheskie strategii, 2018, vol. 20, no 7, pp. 46–73.

3. Zolotarev D.Yu. Razvitie permskogo territorial’nogo innovatsionnogo i promyshlennogo klastera “Fotonika”. Nekotorye rezul’taty strategicheskoi sessii [Developing the Perm Territorial Innovation and Industrial Cluster “Photonics”]. Ekonomicheskie strategii, 2020, vol. 22, no 1, pp. 18–23, DOI: 10.33917/es-1.167.2020.18-23.

DOI: 10.33917/es-5.191.2023.6-21

The chronicle of the situation development, which actually came very close to a global military catastrophe, only outwardly looks like a random kaleidoscope of events. Behind the chaos of events, are becoming more evident extremely strict strategic schemes for operating with global power factors in various spheres of activit y: political, military, economic, etc. The article outlines the systemic elements of an approach that considers military conflict in general and Special military operation in particular as a militarized form of struggle for power — an instrument of global economic regulation of economic activit y. This approach makes it possible to focus the key components of Russia’s necessary strategy in the context of a new round of struggle between imperialist predators for the format of systemic and structural redivision of the world that they need.

References:

1. Ageev A.I. Kholodnaya voina — 2.0: realii i perspektivy [Cold War — 2.0: Realities and Prospects]. Ekonomicheskie strategii, 2015, vol. 17, no 2(128), pp. 74–79.

2. Bakhtizin A.R., Makarov V.L., Loginov E.L., Khabriev B.R., Vu Ts., Vu Z. Gibridnye voiny v makroekonomicheskoi supersisteme XXI veka [Hybrid Wars in the Macroeconomic Supersystem of the XXI Century]. Ekonomicheskie strategii, 2023, vol. 25, no 2(188), pp. 6–23, DOI: https://doi.org/10.33917/es-2.188.2023.6–23

3. Ageev A.I., Bakhtizin A.R., Makarov V.L., Loginov E.L., Khabriev B.R. Ekonomicheskii fundament pobedy: strategicheskii prognoz ustoichivosti ekonomiki Rossii v usloviyakh sanktsionnykh atak [Economic Foundation of Victory: a Strategic Forecast for the Russian Economy Stability in the Face of Sanctions]. Ekonomicheskie strategii, 2023, vol. 25, no 3(189), pp. 6–15, DOI: 10.33917/es-3.189.2023.6-15

4. Denisov A.A., Denisova E.V. Kratkii ocherk osnov teorii upravlyaemoi konfrontatsii [Brief Outline of the Theory of Controlled Confrontation]. Informatsionnye voiny, 2014, no 1, pp. 24–33.

5. Ageev A.I., Loginov E.L. Mirovoe soobshchestvo v usloviyakh sverkhkriticheskoi bifurkatsii: Upravlenie slozhnymi organizatsionnymi i tekhnicheskimi sistemami v usloviyakh sverkhkriticheskikh situatsii: Materialy mezhdunarodnoi nauchno-prakticheskoi konferentsii [World Community in Conditions of Supercritical Bifurcation: Management of complex organizational and technical systems in conditions of supercritical situations: Proceedings of the International Scientific and Practical Conference]. Moscow, INES, 2022, pp. 9–12.

6. Ageev A.I., Loginov E.L. Novaya bol’shaya voina: khroniki khorosho zabytogo budushchego [New Large-Scale War: Chronicles of Well Forgotten Future]. Ekonomicheskie strategii, 2014, vol. 16, no 6–7(122–123), pp. 16–33.

7. Ageev A.I., Loginov E.L. Strategicheskaya predopredelennost’ spetsial’nykh voennykh operatsii v mirovoi supersisteme [Strategic Predetermination of Special Military Operations in the World Supersystem]. Ekonomicheskie strategii, 2023, vol. 25, no 4(190), no 6–19, DOI: 10.33917/es-4.190.2023.6-19

DOI: 10.33917/es-4.190.2023.58-59

Review of the collective monograph “On the Way to a Cosmoplanetary Civilization” edited by Bushuev V.V., Klepach A.N., published in 2023 by the publishing house ”Energy“.