DOI: 10.33917/es-5.197.2024.6-13

The article dwells on technology developed and tested in the United States for constructing political future with the help of targeted force actions within the framework of the fuzzy logic of political multi-steps. The failed quasi-assassination attempt on the US presidential candidate Donald Trump on July 13, 2024 is a political combination preempting the civil war. Its goal is to reduce destructiveness of the political clash following the expected and even more dubious than in 2020, Joe Biden’s victory in the 2024 election, which implied incorrect ways of removing Trump from the presidential race. As a result, a bifurcation point in the US political development has been passed: now there is someone to implement a package of unpopular strategic measures to reorganize the US. Essentially, the murky episode of the assassination attempt turned out to be a way out of the political deadlock.

References:

[1] — [8] no 4/2024, p. 25.

9. Loginov E.L. Velichina dobavlennoy stoimosti v eksporte-importe kak vazhneyshiy geoekonomicheskiy faktor pobedy Rossii v torgovo-ekonomicheskoy voyne: Vneshnepoliticheskie interesy Rossii: istoriya i sovremennost’: Sb. materialov XII Vserossiyskoy nauchnoy konferentsii. Samara, 26 aprelya 2024 g. [Added value amount of exports-imports as the most important geo-economic factor of Russia’s victory in the trade and economic war: Foreign policy interests of Russia: history and modernity: Sourcebook of the XII All-Russian scientific conference. Samara, April 26, 2024]. Samara, SAMARAMA, 2024, pp. 122–126.

10. Ageev A.I., Bakhtizin A.R., Makarov V.L., Loginov E.L., Khabriev B.R. Ekonomicheskiy fundament pobedy: strategicheskiy prognoz ustoychivosti ekonomiki Rossii v usloviyakh sanktsionnykh atak [Economic Foundation of Victory: a Strategic Forecast for the Russian Economy Stability in the Face of Sanctions]. Ekonomicheskie strategii, 2023, vol. 25, no 3(189), pp. 6–15, DOI: https://doi.org/10.33917/es-3.189.2023.6-15

11. Ageev A.I., Loginov E.L. Strategicheskaya predopredelennost’ spetsial’nykh voennykh operatsiy v mirovoy supersisteme [Strategic Predetermination of Special Military Operations in the World Supersystem]. Ekonomicheskie strategii, 2023, vol. 25, no 4(190), pp. 6–19, DOI: https://doi.org/10.33917/es-4.190.2023.6-19

12. Loginov E.L., Karoyan K.E., Kosakyan D.L. Podkhody k formirovaniyu universal’noy modeli zarubezhnogo klastera rossiyskikh finansovykh struktur v perspektivnykh zonakh mirovoy ekonomiki [Approaches to forming a universal model of a foreign cluster of Russian financial structures in promising areas of the world economy]. Samoupravlenie, 2019, vol. 2, no 1(114), pp. 88–91.

13. Bakhtizin A.R., Makarov V.L., Loginov E.L., Khabriev B.R., Vu Ts., Vu Z. Gibridnye voyny v makroekonomicheskoy supersisteme XXI veka [Hybrid Wars in the Macroeconomic Supersystem of the XXI Century]. Ekonomicheskie strategii, 2023, vol. 25, no 2(188), pp. 6–23, DOI: https://doi.org/10.33917/es-2.188.2023.6–23

DOI: 10.33917/es-4.196.2024.38-45

Global dynamics can be understood only from the point of a civilizational approach and within the framework of dialectical ontology. We can observe the opposition of multidirectional civilizational leaders represented from the West by the United States and their reflexive accompaniment in favour of a unipolar world on the part of England, as well as a group of satellites. On the East side, they are represented by Russia and forward-looking China, cautious India and wise Iran, some bold candidates for allies in the noble cause of building a multipolar world.

References:

1. Anisimov O.S. Gegel’: myshlenie i razvitie [Hegel: Thought and Development]. Moscow, 2000.

2. Anisimov O.S. Razvitie myshleniya v kommunikatsii i nemetskaya klassicheskaya filosofiya [Development of Thinking in Communication and German Classical Philosophy]. Myshlenie stratega: model’nye syuzhety, vyp. 57, Moscow, 2019.

3. Anisimov O.S. Gegel’ i myslitel’nyy potentsial metodologii [Hegel and Mental Potential of the Methodology]. Vol. 1–2, Moscow, 2023.

4. Marks K., Engel’s F. Sochineniya [Writings]. Vol. 46, part 1, pp. 36–38.

5. Anisimov O.S. Tsivilizatsiya i ee mekhanizmy: stanovlenie i razrushenie [Civilization and Its Mechanisms: Formation and Destruction]. Vol. 1–2, Moscow, 2007.

6. Anisimov O.S. Istoriya i tsivilizatsiya [History and Civilization]. Ucheb. posobie, vol. 1–3, Moscow, 2020.

7. Anisimov O.S. Skhemy i skhematizatsiya: put’ v kul’turu myshleniya [Schemes and Schematization: Path to the Culture of Thinking]. Vol. 1–2, Moscow, 2007.

8. Anisimov O.S. Yazyk. Semantika. Skhemotekhnika [Language. Semantics. Circuit design]. Myshlenie stratega: model’nye syuzhety, vyp. 47, Moscow, 2017.

9. Anisimov O.S. Strategicheskoe upravlenie i gosudarstvennoe myshlenie [Strategic Management and State Thinking]. Moscow, 2006.

10. Anisimov O.S. Strateg [Strategist]. Vol. 1–3, Moscow, 2023.

11. Anisimov O.S. Absolyutnoe myshlenie [Absolute Thinking]. Myshlenie stratega: model’nye syuzhety, vyp. 55, Moscow, 2019.

12. Anisimov O.S. Dokazyvayushchaya analitika i “razumnoe” myshlenie [Evidence-Based Analytics and Smart Thinking]. Myshlenie stratega: model’nye syuzhety, vyp. 70, Moscow, 2021.

13. Anisimov O.S. Ontologiya i logika [Ontology and Logic]. Ucheb. posobie, Moscow, 2020.

14. Anisimov O.S. S chego nachat’ rost umstvennogo potentsiala? [Where to Start Increasing Mental Potential?]. Potentsial, 2023, no 2.

15. Anisimov O.S. Metodologiya na rubezhe vekov (k 50-letiyu MMK) [Methodology at the Turn of the Century (to the 50th anniversary of MMK)]. Moscow, 2004.

16. Shchedrovitskiy G.P. Izbrannye proizvedeniya [Selected Writings]. Moscow,1995.

17. Anisimov O.S. Kul’tura i dukhovnost’ v myshlenii stratega [Culture and Spirituality in the Strategist’s Thinking]. Moscow, 2012.

18. Anisimov O.S. Ideya logiki i mysletekhnika [The Idea of Logic and Thought Technology]. Myshlenie stratega: model’nye syuzhety, vyp. 46. Moscow, 2017.

DOI: 10.33917/es-4.196.2024.30-37

The article dwells on the effectiveness of cryptocurrency technologies for international payments. Insufficiency of cryptocurrency resources for solving this problem under sanctions is shown. The author proposes a way to solve the problem by creating an international financial system based on a digital golden gram (abbreviated in English: DiGGram or digram) — a stealth cryptocurrency with an anonymous group stable and a zero-knowledge algorithm. It will be impossible for unfriendly states to track transactions of such currency. Emission of digram will not require mining or electricity consumption. Taxation of foreign trade transactions with digram should be carried out in the same way as taxation of transactions with other currencies. The article proposes an original information technology for the forced unlocking of blocked Eurodollar financial assets and converting them into resources to support the emission of a gold gram for forming financial assets of countries participating in the financial system based on a digital gold gram. The proposed measures will make it possible to unite up to 30 countries subject to sanctions into a new international financial system and create financial resources in the amount of up to 0 billion, of which up to 0 billion can be used to service international payments of the Russian Federation.

References:

1. V TsB prizvali “probovat’ vse” dlya resheniya problemy perevodov za rubezh [The Central Bank urged to “Try Everything” to Solve the Problem of Transfers Abroad]. RBK, Finansy, 2024, 26 iyunya, available at: https://www.rbc.ru/finances/26/06/2024/667c04189a79474a3d678ec2

2. Summarnaya kapitalizatsiya kriptovalyut dostigla 2,4 trln dollarov [Total Capitalization of Cryptocurrencies has Achieved .4 Trillion]. Blockchair, available at: https://blockchair.com/ru/news/summarnaa-kapitalizacia-kriptovalut-dostigla-24-trln-dollarov–d28ebf3e52

3. Kitay, Indiya i Turtsiya stali glavnymi torgovymi partnerami Rossii v 2023 godu [China, India and Türkiye have become Russia’s Main Trading Partners in 2023]. Izvestiya, 2024, 8 aprelya, available at: https://iz.ru/1678604/2024-04-08/kitai-indiia-i-turtciia-stali-glavnymi-torgovymi-partneramirossii-v-2023-godu

4. Valyuta, osnovannaya na odnom gramme zolota [Currency Based on one Gram of Gold]. Dzen. 2023. 10 iyulya. URL: https://dzen.ru/a/ ZKxbgrfr_3KEBIFV

5. Kogda poyavitsya novaya valyuta BRIKS i kak ona povliyaet na rubl’ [When the New BRICS Currency will Appear and How it will Impact the Rouble]. T–Zh. 2024. 18 aprelya. URL: https://journal.tinkoff.ru/news/brics-currency/

6. Yuliya Abdulbarova. Top-7 stran pod sanktsiyami: kak zhivut gosudarstva pod sanktsionnymi ogranicheniyami? [Top 7 Countries under Sanctions: How do States Live under Sanctions?]. LinDEAL. URL: https://lindeal.com/trends/top-7-stran-pod-sankciyami-kak-zhivut-gosudarstva-pod-sankcionnymi-ogranicheniyami

7. Zamorozka aktivov. Traditsii i novye printsipy raboty Zapada s rezervami tret’ikh stran [Asset Freezing. Traditions and New Principles of the West’s Work with Reserves of Third Countries]. Dzen, 2023, 27 dekabrya, available at: https://dzen.ru/a/ZYvtfjnG4kyLlH9F

DOI: 10.33917/es-4.196.2024.18-25

Despite improving economic indicators and revisions towards better forecasts for 2024, systemic threats and risks, which are not always obvious, remain in the global economy. In the article, the author draws attention to a number of new problems and circumstances that are changing financial landscape in the world. In particular, attention is paid to expanding approaches of central banks in new conditions, risks arising from the technological advancement of commercial banks, which requires more careful control to prevent a destabilizing effect on the financial sector as a whole, etc.

References:

1. BIS. Annual Economic Report. Basel, June, 2023, available at: https://www.bis.org/publ/arpdf/ar2023e.htm

2. UN. World Economic Situation and Prospects. May 2024, available at: https://www.un.org/development/desa/dpad/publication/world-economic-situationand-prospects-as-of-mid-2024/

3. Bank JP Morgan otkroet bolee 500 novykh otdeleniy v blizhayshie tri goda [JP Morgan will Open More than 500 New Branches in the Next Three Years]. Kommersant. 2024. 6 fevralya. URL: https://www.kommersant.ru/doc/6494367

4. China’s central bank hints it may add treasury bond trades to policy toolkit. Reuters. April 23, 2024, available at: https://www.reuters.com/world/china/ chinas-central-bank-hints-it-may-add-treasury-bond-trades-policy-toolkit-2024-04-23/

5. UN. World Economic Situation and Prospects. January 2024. UN, available at: https://www.un.org/development/desa/dpad/publication/world-economicsituation-and-prospects-2024/

6. Roskongress. Zamorozka aktivov. Traditsii i novye printsipy raboty Zapada s aktivami tret’ikh stran [Росконгресс. Roscongress. Freeze of Assets. Traditions and New Principles of Western Work with Assets of Third Countries]. Roskongress, 2023, Dekabr’ available at: https://roscongress.org/materials/ zamorozka-aktivov-samoupravstvo-ili-zakonnyy-shag/

DOI: 10.33917/es-4.196.2024.18-25

The article dwells on technology developed and tested in the United States for constructing political future with the help of targeted force actions within the framework of the fuzzy logic of political multi-steps. The failed quasi-assassination attempt on the US presidential candidate Donald Trump on July 13, 2024 is a political combination preempting the civil war. Its goal is to reduce destructiveness of the political clash following the expected and even more dubious than in 2020, Joe Biden’s victory in the 2024 election, which implied incorrect ways of removing Trump from the presidential race. As a result, a bifurcation point in the US political development has been passed: now there is someone to implement a package of unpopular strategic measures to reorganize the US. Essentially, the murky episode of the assassination attempt turned out to be a way out of the political deadlock.

References:

1. Brat’ya Strugatskie. Obitaemyy ostrov [Inhabited Island]. Moscow, Detskaya literatura, 1971. 320 p., ill. (Biblioteka priklyucheniy i nauchnoy fantastiki.)

2. Ageev A.I. Rol’ sanktsiy, konfliktov i spetsoperatsiy: razmyshleniya o budushchem. Chast’ 2 [The Role of Sanctions, Conflicts and Special Operations: Reflections on the Future. Part 2]. Nauchnyy vestnik oboronno-promyshlennogo kompleksa Rossii, 2024, no 1, pp. 33–42.

3. Ageev A.I., Loginov E.L. Krakh dollara: proektirovanie deystviy Rossii v usloviyakh global’nogo ekonomicheskogo kollapsa [The Dollar Collapse: Projecting Russia’s Actions in the Face of Global Economic Collapse]. Ekonomicheskie strategii, 2022, vol. 24, no 4(184), pp. 56–69, DOI: https://doi.org/10.33917/es- 4.184.2022.56-69

4. Ageev A.I., Loginov E.L. Mirovoe soobshchestvo v usloviyakh sverkhkriticheskoy bifurkatsii: Upravlenie slozhnymi organizatsionnymi i tekhnicheskimi sistemami v usloviyakh sverkhkriticheskikh situatsiy: Materialy mezhdunarodnoy nauchno-prakticheskoy konferentsii, Moskva, 21–22 aprelya 2022 g. [World Community in Conditions of Supercritical Bifurcation: Management of Complex Organizational and Technical Systems in Conditions of Supercritical Situations: Proceedings of the International Scientific and Practical Conference, Moscow, April 21–22, 2022.]. Moscow, Institut ekonomicheskikh strategiy, 2022, pp. 9–12.

5. Loginov E.L., Zarbaliev S.M., Grigor’ev V.V. Otsenka veroyatnostnykh kharakteristik sluchaynykh protsessov v mirovoy ekonomike v usloviyakh nelineynoy dinamiki s sushchestvennoy khaoticheskoy komponentoy [Assessment of Probabilistic Characteristics of Random Processes in the Global Economy under Conditions of Nonlinear Dynamics with a Significant Chaotic Component]. Iskusstvennye obshchestva, 2020, vol. 15, no 1, p. 5.

6. Loginov E.L. Tsifrovye tekhnologii politicheskoy bor’by: neyrosetevye imperativy informatsionnogo protivodeystviya popytkam perekhvata upravleniya v sotsial’no-politicheskoy srede [Digital Technologies of Political Struggle: Neural Network Imperatives of Information Counteraction to Attempts of Intercepting Control in the Socio-political Environment]. Moscow, Rusayns, 2024, 234 p.

DOI: 10.33917/es-3.195.2024.44-49

The author examines the legal features of the procedure for the confiscation (expropriation) of frozen Russian assets by Western countries. The procedural aspects of the possible illegal seizure of Russian property are analyzed in the context of international law, taking into account the role of the UN Security Council.

References:

1. V MID predupredili Zapad o posledstviyakh konfiskatsii aktivov [The Foreign Ministry warned the West about the consequences of asset confiscation]. RIA Novosti, 2024, 28 yanvarya, available at: https://ria.ru/20240128/preduprezhdenie-1923932382.html

2. V MID poobeshchali dat’ adekvatnyy otvet v sluchae konfiskatsii aktivov Rossii [The Foreign Ministry promised to give an adequate response in the event of confiscation of Russian assets]. Izvestiya, 2024, 28 yanvarya, available at: https://iz.ru/1641034/2024-01-28/v-mid-rf-poobeshchali-dat-adekvatnyiotvet-v-sluchae-konfiskatcii-aktivov-rossii

3. Ustav Organizatsii Ob”edinennykh Natsiy (Prinyat v g. San-Frantsisko 26 iyunya 1945 g.) [Charter of the United Nations (Adopted in San Francisco on June 26, 1945)]. Konsul’tant Plyus, available at: https://www.consultant.ru/document/cons_doc_LAW_121087/

4. Case concerning military and paramilitary activities in and against Nicaragua (Nicaragua v. United States of America),

available at: https://www.icj-cij.org/public/files/case-related/70/070-19841126-JUD-01-00-EN.pdf

5. Legal consequences for states of the continued presence of South Africa in Namibia (South West Africa) notwithstanding Security Council Resolution 276 (1970), available at: https://www.icj-cij.org/sites/default/files/case-related/53/053-19710621-ADV-01-00-EN.pdf

6. Venskaya Konventsiya o prave mezhdunarodnykh dogovorov (Zaklyuchena v Vene 23 maya 1969 g.) [Vienna Convention on the Law of Treaties (Concluded in Vienna on May 23, 1969)]. Mezhdunarodnoe publichnoe pravo: Sb. dokumentov. T. 1. Moscow, BEK, 1996, pp. 67–87.

7. Mezhdunarodnyy pakt o grazhdanskikh i politicheskikh pravakh (Prinyat 16 dekabrya 1966 g. Rezolyutsiey 2200 (XXI) na 1496-m plenarnom zasedanii General’noy Assamblei OON) [International Covenant on Civil and Political Rights (Adopted on December 16, 1966 by Resolution 2200 (XXI) at the 1496th

plenary meeting of the UN General Assembly)]. Byulleten’ Verkhovnogo Suda RF, 1994, no 12.

8. Yassin Abdullah Kadi and Al Barakaat International Foundation v. Council and Commission (No. C-402/05 P, No. C-415/05 P). InfoCuria. Case-lav, available at: https://curia.europa.eu/juris/document/document.jsf?docid=67611&text=&dir=&doclang=EN

9. Rezolyutsiya Soveta Bezopasnosti OON № 820 (1993) (Prinyata v g. N’yu-Yorke 17 aprelya 1993 g. na 3200-m zasedanii Soveta Bezopasnosti OON)

[UN Security Council Resolution No. 820 (1993) (Adopted in New York on April 17, 1993 at the 3200th meeting of the UN Security Council)]. E-Dos’e, available at: https://e-ecolog.ru/docs/hBTmnhvK14cT0aDj1-QMd?utm_referrer=https%3A%2F%2Fyandex.ru%2F

DOI: 10.33917/es-3.195.2024.34-43

The article analyzes mechanisms of sanctions action and the problems that are faced by countries that use this political instrument. Particular attention is paid to cases of applying sanctions against the Russian Federation and Iran without expressing any subjective opinion on the legality of these countries’ actions. It is proved that economic sanctions in most cases are fraught with economic costs for all participants in sanctions episodes, including countries that initiate these sanctions. The country, against which the sanctions are imposed, is likely to develop trade relations with the third parties that do not participate in the sanctions coalition.

References:

1. Alekseeva T.A. Sovremennaya politicheskaya mysl’ (XX–XXI vv.): politicheskaya teoriya i mezhdunarodnye otnosheniya [Modern Political Thought (XX–XXI centuries): Political Theory and International Relations]. Moscow, Aspekt Press, 2015.

2. Timofeev I.N. Ekonomicheskie sanktsii kak politicheskoe ponyatie [Economic Sanctions as a Political Concept]. Vestnik MGIMO-Universiteta, 2018, no 2(59), pp. 26–42, DOI: 10.24833/2071-8160-2018-2-59-26-42

3. ES i SShA otsenivayut vliyanie sobstvennykh sanktsiy v otnoshenii Rossii [The EU and the US Assess the Impact of their own Sanctions Against Russia]. Otkrytyy zhurnal, 2022, 5 marta, available at: https://journal.open-broker.ru/results/itogi-nedeli-ot-5-marta-2022/

4. Khaffbauer G., Shott D., Elliot K., Egg B. Peresmotr ekonomicheskikh sanktsiy [Revision of Economic Sanctions]. Elsevier. Zhurnal mezhdunarodnoy ekonomiki, 2007, vol. 76(1), pp. 135–137.

5. Rezolyutsiya 1929, prinyataya Sovetom Bezopasnosti na ego 6335-m zasedanii 9 iyunya 2010 g. [Resolution 1929, Adopted by the Security Council at its 6335th Meeting on 9 June 2010]. Sovet Bezopasnosti OON, available at: https://www.un.org/securitycouncil/ru/s/res/1929-%282010%29

DOI: 10.33917/es-3.195.2024.16-27

Chronicles of the trade and economic war (sanctions, restrictions, etc., in fact, attempts to organize an economic, scientific and technical blockade) of the conventionally united West against Russia after 2014 in general and after the beginning of the Limited Military Operation in particular clearly demonstrate that Atlantic opponents didn’t manage to defeat us economically. They don’t understand why that happened… Russia, to the whole world’s surprise, is successfully realizing its economic potential, monetizing it into stability of the political regime and building up a victorious defence potential. What’s the cause of such macroeconomic stability (national strength) of Russia?

References:

1. Isard W. Interregional and Regional Input-Output Analysis: A Model of a Space Economy. Review of Economics and Statistics, 1951, vol. 33, pp. 318–328.

2. Leontief W., Strout A. Multiregional Input-Output Analysis. Structural Interdependence and Economic Development (ed. T. Barna). London, Macmillan (St. Martin’s Press), 1963, pp. 119–149.

3. Koopman R., Wang Z., Wei Shang-Jin. Tracing Value-Added and Double Counting in Gross Exports. NBER Working Paper no 18579, Cambridge, National Bureau of Economic Research, 2012.

4. Makarov V.L., Bakhtizin A.R., Sushko E.D. Natsional’naya strategicheskaya sila stran, mezhdunarodnaya torgovlya i ekonomicheskaya uspeshnost’ stran v nestabil’nom mire [National Strategic Power of Countries, International Trade and Economic Success of Countries in the unstable World]. Strategirovanie: teoriya i praktika, 2023, vol. 3, no 3(9), pp. 277–297.

5. Ageev A.I., Bakhtizin A.R., Makarov V.L., Loginov E.L., Khabriev B.R. Ekonomicheskiy fundament pobedy: strategicheskiy prognoz ustoychivosti ekonomiki Rossii v

usloviyakh sanktsionnykh atak [Economic Foundation of Victory: a Strategic Forecast for the Russian Economy Stability in the Face of Sanctions]. Ekonomicheskie strategii,

2023, vol. 25, no 3(189), pp. 6–15, DOI: https://doi.org/10.33917/es-3.189.2023.6-15

6. Makarov V.L., Il’in N.I., Bakhtizin A.R., Khabriev B.R. Natsional’naya sila stran mira: otsenka i prognoz [National Strength of the Countries in the World: Evaluation and Forecast]. Ekonomicheskie strategii, 2022, vol. 24, no 6(186), pp. 38–51, DOI: https://doi.org/10.33917/es-6.186.2022.38-51

7. Makarov V.L., Bakhtizin A.R., Loginov E.L. Primenenie ekonomiko-matematicheskikh metodov i modeley optimal’nogo planirovaniya v tsifrovoy ekonomike budushchego (TsEMI AN SSSR i TsEMI RAN: prognosticheskaya interpretatsiya i razvitie nauchnogo naslediya nobelevskikh laureatov L.V. Kantorovicha i V.V. Leont’eva) [Application of Economic-mathematical Methods and Optimal Planning Models in the Digital Economy of the Future (CEMI AS USSR and CEMI RAS: Predictive

Interpretation and Development of the Scientific Heritage of Nobel Laureates L.V. Kantorovich and V.V. Leontief)]. Moscow, Tsentral’nyy ekonomiko-matematicheskiy