DOI: 10.33917/es-4.196.2024.18-25

The article dwells on technology developed and tested in the United States for constructing political future with the help of targeted force actions within the framework of the fuzzy logic of political multi-steps. The failed quasi-assassination attempt on the US presidential candidate Donald Trump on July 13, 2024 is a political combination preempting the civil war. Its goal is to reduce destructiveness of the political clash following the expected and even more dubious than in 2020, Joe Biden’s victory in the 2024 election, which implied incorrect ways of removing Trump from the presidential race. As a result, a bifurcation point in the US political development has been passed: now there is someone to implement a package of unpopular strategic measures to reorganize the US. Essentially, the murky episode of the assassination attempt turned out to be a way out of the political deadlock.

References:

1. Brat’ya Strugatskie. Obitaemyy ostrov [Inhabited Island]. Moscow, Detskaya literatura, 1971. 320 p., ill. (Biblioteka priklyucheniy i nauchnoy fantastiki.)

2. Ageev A.I. Rol’ sanktsiy, konfliktov i spetsoperatsiy: razmyshleniya o budushchem. Chast’ 2 [The Role of Sanctions, Conflicts and Special Operations: Reflections on the Future. Part 2]. Nauchnyy vestnik oboronno-promyshlennogo kompleksa Rossii, 2024, no 1, pp. 33–42.

3. Ageev A.I., Loginov E.L. Krakh dollara: proektirovanie deystviy Rossii v usloviyakh global’nogo ekonomicheskogo kollapsa [The Dollar Collapse: Projecting Russia’s Actions in the Face of Global Economic Collapse]. Ekonomicheskie strategii, 2022, vol. 24, no 4(184), pp. 56–69, DOI: https://doi.org/10.33917/es- 4.184.2022.56-69

4. Ageev A.I., Loginov E.L. Mirovoe soobshchestvo v usloviyakh sverkhkriticheskoy bifurkatsii: Upravlenie slozhnymi organizatsionnymi i tekhnicheskimi sistemami v usloviyakh sverkhkriticheskikh situatsiy: Materialy mezhdunarodnoy nauchno-prakticheskoy konferentsii, Moskva, 21–22 aprelya 2022 g. [World Community in Conditions of Supercritical Bifurcation: Management of Complex Organizational and Technical Systems in Conditions of Supercritical Situations: Proceedings of the International Scientific and Practical Conference, Moscow, April 21–22, 2022.]. Moscow, Institut ekonomicheskikh strategiy, 2022, pp. 9–12.

5. Loginov E.L., Zarbaliev S.M., Grigor’ev V.V. Otsenka veroyatnostnykh kharakteristik sluchaynykh protsessov v mirovoy ekonomike v usloviyakh nelineynoy dinamiki s sushchestvennoy khaoticheskoy komponentoy [Assessment of Probabilistic Characteristics of Random Processes in the Global Economy under Conditions of Nonlinear Dynamics with a Significant Chaotic Component]. Iskusstvennye obshchestva, 2020, vol. 15, no 1, p. 5.

6. Loginov E.L. Tsifrovye tekhnologii politicheskoy bor’by: neyrosetevye imperativy informatsionnogo protivodeystviya popytkam perekhvata upravleniya v sotsial’no-politicheskoy srede [Digital Technologies of Political Struggle: Neural Network Imperatives of Information Counteraction to Attempts of Intercepting Control in the Socio-political Environment]. Moscow, Rusayns, 2024, 234 p.

DOI: 10.33917/es-3.195.2024.44-49

The author examines the legal features of the procedure for the confiscation (expropriation) of frozen Russian assets by Western countries. The procedural aspects of the possible illegal seizure of Russian property are analyzed in the context of international law, taking into account the role of the UN Security Council.

References:

1. V MID predupredili Zapad o posledstviyakh konfiskatsii aktivov [The Foreign Ministry warned the West about the consequences of asset confiscation]. RIA Novosti, 2024, 28 yanvarya, available at: https://ria.ru/20240128/preduprezhdenie-1923932382.html

2. V MID poobeshchali dat’ adekvatnyy otvet v sluchae konfiskatsii aktivov Rossii [The Foreign Ministry promised to give an adequate response in the event of confiscation of Russian assets]. Izvestiya, 2024, 28 yanvarya, available at: https://iz.ru/1641034/2024-01-28/v-mid-rf-poobeshchali-dat-adekvatnyiotvet-v-sluchae-konfiskatcii-aktivov-rossii

3. Ustav Organizatsii Ob”edinennykh Natsiy (Prinyat v g. San-Frantsisko 26 iyunya 1945 g.) [Charter of the United Nations (Adopted in San Francisco on June 26, 1945)]. Konsul’tant Plyus, available at: https://www.consultant.ru/document/cons_doc_LAW_121087/

4. Case concerning military and paramilitary activities in and against Nicaragua (Nicaragua v. United States of America),

available at: https://www.icj-cij.org/public/files/case-related/70/070-19841126-JUD-01-00-EN.pdf

5. Legal consequences for states of the continued presence of South Africa in Namibia (South West Africa) notwithstanding Security Council Resolution 276 (1970), available at: https://www.icj-cij.org/sites/default/files/case-related/53/053-19710621-ADV-01-00-EN.pdf

6. Venskaya Konventsiya o prave mezhdunarodnykh dogovorov (Zaklyuchena v Vene 23 maya 1969 g.) [Vienna Convention on the Law of Treaties (Concluded in Vienna on May 23, 1969)]. Mezhdunarodnoe publichnoe pravo: Sb. dokumentov. T. 1. Moscow, BEK, 1996, pp. 67–87.

7. Mezhdunarodnyy pakt o grazhdanskikh i politicheskikh pravakh (Prinyat 16 dekabrya 1966 g. Rezolyutsiey 2200 (XXI) na 1496-m plenarnom zasedanii General’noy Assamblei OON) [International Covenant on Civil and Political Rights (Adopted on December 16, 1966 by Resolution 2200 (XXI) at the 1496th

plenary meeting of the UN General Assembly)]. Byulleten’ Verkhovnogo Suda RF, 1994, no 12.

8. Yassin Abdullah Kadi and Al Barakaat International Foundation v. Council and Commission (No. C-402/05 P, No. C-415/05 P). InfoCuria. Case-lav, available at: https://curia.europa.eu/juris/document/document.jsf?docid=67611&text=&dir=&doclang=EN

9. Rezolyutsiya Soveta Bezopasnosti OON № 820 (1993) (Prinyata v g. N’yu-Yorke 17 aprelya 1993 g. na 3200-m zasedanii Soveta Bezopasnosti OON)

[UN Security Council Resolution No. 820 (1993) (Adopted in New York on April 17, 1993 at the 3200th meeting of the UN Security Council)]. E-Dos’e, available at: https://e-ecolog.ru/docs/hBTmnhvK14cT0aDj1-QMd?utm_referrer=https%3A%2F%2Fyandex.ru%2F

DOI: 10.33917/es-3.195.2024.34-43

The article analyzes mechanisms of sanctions action and the problems that are faced by countries that use this political instrument. Particular attention is paid to cases of applying sanctions against the Russian Federation and Iran without expressing any subjective opinion on the legality of these countries’ actions. It is proved that economic sanctions in most cases are fraught with economic costs for all participants in sanctions episodes, including countries that initiate these sanctions. The country, against which the sanctions are imposed, is likely to develop trade relations with the third parties that do not participate in the sanctions coalition.

References:

1. Alekseeva T.A. Sovremennaya politicheskaya mysl’ (XX–XXI vv.): politicheskaya teoriya i mezhdunarodnye otnosheniya [Modern Political Thought (XX–XXI centuries): Political Theory and International Relations]. Moscow, Aspekt Press, 2015.

2. Timofeev I.N. Ekonomicheskie sanktsii kak politicheskoe ponyatie [Economic Sanctions as a Political Concept]. Vestnik MGIMO-Universiteta, 2018, no 2(59), pp. 26–42, DOI: 10.24833/2071-8160-2018-2-59-26-42

3. ES i SShA otsenivayut vliyanie sobstvennykh sanktsiy v otnoshenii Rossii [The EU and the US Assess the Impact of their own Sanctions Against Russia]. Otkrytyy zhurnal, 2022, 5 marta, available at: https://journal.open-broker.ru/results/itogi-nedeli-ot-5-marta-2022/

4. Khaffbauer G., Shott D., Elliot K., Egg B. Peresmotr ekonomicheskikh sanktsiy [Revision of Economic Sanctions]. Elsevier. Zhurnal mezhdunarodnoy ekonomiki, 2007, vol. 76(1), pp. 135–137.

5. Rezolyutsiya 1929, prinyataya Sovetom Bezopasnosti na ego 6335-m zasedanii 9 iyunya 2010 g. [Resolution 1929, Adopted by the Security Council at its 6335th Meeting on 9 June 2010]. Sovet Bezopasnosti OON, available at: https://www.un.org/securitycouncil/ru/s/res/1929-%282010%29

DOI: 10.33917/es-3.195.2024.16-27

Chronicles of the trade and economic war (sanctions, restrictions, etc., in fact, attempts to organize an economic, scientific and technical blockade) of the conventionally united West against Russia after 2014 in general and after the beginning of the Limited Military Operation in particular clearly demonstrate that Atlantic opponents didn’t manage to defeat us economically. They don’t understand why that happened… Russia, to the whole world’s surprise, is successfully realizing its economic potential, monetizing it into stability of the political regime and building up a victorious defence potential. What’s the cause of such macroeconomic stability (national strength) of Russia?

References:

1. Isard W. Interregional and Regional Input-Output Analysis: A Model of a Space Economy. Review of Economics and Statistics, 1951, vol. 33, pp. 318–328.

2. Leontief W., Strout A. Multiregional Input-Output Analysis. Structural Interdependence and Economic Development (ed. T. Barna). London, Macmillan (St. Martin’s Press), 1963, pp. 119–149.

3. Koopman R., Wang Z., Wei Shang-Jin. Tracing Value-Added and Double Counting in Gross Exports. NBER Working Paper no 18579, Cambridge, National Bureau of Economic Research, 2012.

4. Makarov V.L., Bakhtizin A.R., Sushko E.D. Natsional’naya strategicheskaya sila stran, mezhdunarodnaya torgovlya i ekonomicheskaya uspeshnost’ stran v nestabil’nom mire [National Strategic Power of Countries, International Trade and Economic Success of Countries in the unstable World]. Strategirovanie: teoriya i praktika, 2023, vol. 3, no 3(9), pp. 277–297.

5. Ageev A.I., Bakhtizin A.R., Makarov V.L., Loginov E.L., Khabriev B.R. Ekonomicheskiy fundament pobedy: strategicheskiy prognoz ustoychivosti ekonomiki Rossii v

usloviyakh sanktsionnykh atak [Economic Foundation of Victory: a Strategic Forecast for the Russian Economy Stability in the Face of Sanctions]. Ekonomicheskie strategii,

2023, vol. 25, no 3(189), pp. 6–15, DOI: https://doi.org/10.33917/es-3.189.2023.6-15

6. Makarov V.L., Il’in N.I., Bakhtizin A.R., Khabriev B.R. Natsional’naya sila stran mira: otsenka i prognoz [National Strength of the Countries in the World: Evaluation and Forecast]. Ekonomicheskie strategii, 2022, vol. 24, no 6(186), pp. 38–51, DOI: https://doi.org/10.33917/es-6.186.2022.38-51

7. Makarov V.L., Bakhtizin A.R., Loginov E.L. Primenenie ekonomiko-matematicheskikh metodov i modeley optimal’nogo planirovaniya v tsifrovoy ekonomike budushchego (TsEMI AN SSSR i TsEMI RAN: prognosticheskaya interpretatsiya i razvitie nauchnogo naslediya nobelevskikh laureatov L.V. Kantorovicha i V.V. Leont’eva) [Application of Economic-mathematical Methods and Optimal Planning Models in the Digital Economy of the Future (CEMI AS USSR and CEMI RAS: Predictive

Interpretation and Development of the Scientific Heritage of Nobel Laureates L.V. Kantorovich and V.V. Leontief)]. Moscow, Tsentral’nyy ekonomiko-matematicheskiy

DOI: 10.33917/es-2.194.2024.32-37

The authors investigated the security situation (military, economic, energy, environmental, food, etc.) in the Indo-Pacific region using international expert surveys in the form of interviews in 16 countries, using a historical approach to show the situation in dynamics, comparative analysis of statistical data, as well as content analysis of scientific literature, publications in the media and in-depth analysis of texts using the Sorbonne method. The analytical materials prepared by the authors are confirmed by empirical data obtained as part of the research work of the international project “Dialogue Partnership as a factor of stability and integration” in 16 Eastern countries: Brunei, Vietnam, India, Indonesia, China, Malaysia, Mongolia, Myanmar, Nepal, RF, Singapore, the USA, Thailand, Philippines, South Korea and Japan, in the pre- and post-ovoid period.

References:

1. Kompleksnaya kharakteristika situatsii v ATR [A Comprehensive Description of the Situation in the Asia-Pacific Region]. Moscow, Academia, 2016, 340 p.

2. ATR glazami ekspertov (mezhdunarodnaya ekspertiza 2005–2019 gg.) [The Asia-Pacific Region Through the Eyes of Experts (International Expertise 2005–2019)]. Moscow, Academia, 2019, 350 p.

3. Masasi Murano, Ankito Panda i Dzhenni Taun. Novaya raketnaya era v Indo-Tikhookeanskom regione [A New Missile Era in the Indo-Pacific Region]. Moskovskiy Tsentr Karnegi, available at: https://gatotca.oyi.my.id/find/a-new-missile-age-in-the-indopacific-carnegie-endowment-for

4. Sukin L. Kogda yadernoe prevoskhodstvo perestaet byt’ prevoskhodstvom: Peresmotr yadernogo balansa sil [When Nuclear Superiority Ceases to be Superiority: A Revision of the Nuclear Balance of Power]. Moskovskiy Tsentr Karnegi, available at: https://mail.yandex.ru/?uid=4361772#message/184366109745546487

5. Rybin A. NYT: Veroyatnost’ voyny v Indo-Tikhookeanskom regione seychas samaya vysokaya so Vtoroy mirovoy [The Probability of War in the Indo-Pacific Region is Now the Highest Since World War II]. Rossiyskaya gazeta, 2023, 1 marta, available at: https://rg.ru/2023/03/01/nyt-veroiatnost-vojny-v-indo-tihookeanskom-regionesejchas-

samaia-vysokaia-so-vtoroj-mirovoj.html

6. Balandin R. Syurpriz ot Dzho Baydena: pochemu SShA nachali postavlyat’ oruzhie Tayvanyu po “ukrainskoy” skheme? [Surprise From Joe Biden: Why Did the United

States Start Supplying Weapons to Taiwan According to the “Ukrainian” Scheme?]. TASS, 2023, 15 avgusta, available at: https://tass.ru/opinions/18501723

7. Delegatsiya kongressmenov SShA pribyla na Tayvan’ [A Delegation of US Congressmen Arrived in Taiwan]. RIA Novosti, 2022, 14 avgusta, available at: https://ria.ru/20220814/tayvan-1809515164.html

8. 900 voennykh baz SShA po vsemu miru. V kakikh stranakh ikh bol’she vsego? [900 US Military Bases Around the World. Which Countries Have the Most of Them?].

Dzen, 2023, 11 yanvarya, available at: https://dzen.ru/a/Y76U9T_c6WqJsHnc

9. Vysotskiy V.I. Neft’ i gaz. Zapasy. Dobycha. Potreblenie, eksport i import: Informatsionnyy obzor [Oil and Gas. Stocks. Extraction. Consumption, Export and Import. (Information Overview)]. Moscow, Rosgeologiya. VNIIZARUBEZhGEOLOGIYA, 2022, 40 p.

DOI: 10.33917/es-2.194.2024.24-31

The problem of the economic policies ontology is examined. Paradigms define practices and scenarios for the future.

Crisis of the “mainstream” and the polymorphic structure of the world economy imply an intensive search for new theoretical and practical solutions.

References:

13. Rosstat [Website], available at: https://rosstat.gov.ru/storage/mediabank/24_18-02-2022.htm

DOI: 10.33917/es-2.194.2024.16-23

The authors propose a vector for developing BRICS as an operator of an intercountry digital platform complex (IDPC), within the framework of which international economic transactions are accelerated, simplified and cheapened. Simplification and acceleration occur due to the fact that the documents, required for transaction, are prepared by ICPC algorithms in accordance with the current legislation of the countries and international standards. Cost reduction is achieved by reducing transaction costs, international multilateral clearing, optimizing logistics costs, introducing an internal electronic platform currency for mutual settlements, etc. In this case BRICS, receiving a commission of about 0.5% from each transaction, becomes independent of the budgets of participating countries and a self-sustaining international organization with significant influence in the field of international economic cooperation, including performing the international arbitration functions.

References:

1. Oleskin A.V. Setevoe obshchestvo: ego neobkhodimost’ i vozmozhnye strategii postroeniya [Network Society: Its Necessity and Possible Strategies for its Construction]. Moscow, URSS, 2016.

2. Budanov V.G. Metafizika, ontologii i stsenarii bol’shogo antropologicheskogo perekhoda: Nauka i fenomen cheloveka v epokhu tsivilizatsionnogo Makrosdviga [Metaphysics, Ontologies and Scenarios of the Great Anthropological Transition: Science and Phenomenon of a Man in the Era of Civilizational Macroshift]. Moscow, Institut obshchegumanitarnykh issledovaniy, 2023, 748 p.

3. Oleskin A.V. Detsentralizovannaya setevaya organizatsiya nauchnogo soobshchestva. Perspektivy i problem [Decentralized Network Organization of the Scientific Community. Prospects and Challenges]. Moscow, URSS, 2021.

4. Shokhov A.S. Rol’ Rossii v konstruirovanii mirovoy ekonomiki XXI veka: The New World Economy [Russia’s Role in Designing the World Economy of the 21st Century: The New World Economy]. Artificial societies. 2023. Vol. 18. Iss. 3. URL: https://artsoc.jes.su/s207751800026948-1-1