DOI: 10.33917/mic-3.116.2024.69-75

A factor model of US economic growth, developed by famous economists P.E. Samuelson and V.E. Nordhouse, is presented. [1]. An analysis of the growth of inflation in the US and European economies in 2023 and ways to reduce it due to an increase in interest rates by the US Federal Reserve System and the European Central Bank is given. It is noted that the Russian economy in 2022–2023. ranked fifth in the world in terms of GDP calculated at purchasing power parity (PPP), ahead of European countries, and according to the World Bank in May 2024 it rose to fourth place.

References:

1. Samuelson P.E., Nordhaus V.D. Economy. 16th edition. Williams Publishing House, 2003. 688 p.

2. Global fun. The IMF has raised its forecasts for the global and Russian economies. Kommersant, January 30, 2024. URL: https://www.kommersant.ru/doc/6479601

3. Khazin M. Why will the USA and the dollar face «horror-horror-horror» in 2024 and what is Russia’s strategy? URL: https:/www. business-gazeta ru/article/6188366

4. Kuzovkin A.I. Climate Summit in Rome and Climate Conference in Glasgow in 2021. Microeconomics. 2022;1:91–97. (In Russ.).

5. From the minutes of the Federal Open Market Committee. URL: https://smart-lab.ru/blog/856802.php

6. Milchakova N. Mysteries of GDP: how and why did Russia become the fifth economy in the world? Moskovsky Komsomolets. April 1, 2024. URL: https://www.mk.ru/economics/2024/03/31/zagadki-vvp-kak-i-pochemu-rossiya-stala-pyatoy-ekonomikoy-mira.html

7. Vedeneeva N. Academician Aganbegyan told how to make Russians rich: «A very effective tool». Moskovsky Komsomolets, March 20, 2024. URL: https://www.mk.ru/economics/2024/03/19/akademik-aganbegyan-rasskazal-kak-sdelat-rossiyan-bogatymi-ochen-deystvennyy-instrument.html

DOI: 10.33917/mic-3.116.2024.41-68

An improved methodology for calculating microeconomic criteria for the effectiveness of investments in energy projects (and other real sector projects) based on the UNIDO methodology is presented. It allows to determine the analytical relationship between the engineering and economic parameters of power plants (throughout their life cycle) and a set of microeconomic criteria for the effectiveness of investments. Strictly mathematically, the secondary criteria are derived from the definition of the main microeconomic criterion – net present value (NPV): the internal rate of return IRR, the levelized cost of electricity (LCOE) and the discounted payback period DPP.  Numerous examples and graphic illustrations of estimates of individual parameters of investment projects and criteria for investment efficiency are given. A significant difference between the proposed methodology for calculating investment efficiency criteria is the use of average annual values of revenue, operating costs and production, as well as the introduction of special coefficients (φ) reflecting the effect of discounting cash flows at each period of the life cycle (construction, operation and decommissioning).

References:

1. Management of Nuclear Power Plant Projects. IAEA Nuclear Energy Series No. NG-T-1.6. Vienna, 2020. 160 p.

2. Kharitonov V.V., Kosterin N.N. Criteria of investment payback in nuclear power engineering // Izvestiya vuzov. Yadernaya Energetika. 2017;2:157-168. (In Russ.).

3. Meso-economics of development / edited by Corresponding Member of the Russian Academy of Sciences G.B. Kleiner. CEMI RAS. Moscow: Nauka, 2011. 805 p. (In Russ.).

4. Chernyakhovskaya Yu.V. Macroeffects of international NPP projects. Studies on Russian Economic Development. 2018;1(166):29-37. (In Russ.).

5. Chernyakhovskaya Yu.V. Integrated NPP sales: how does it work? Economic and organizational aspects. Problems of Atomic Science and Engineering. Series: Physics of Nuclear Reactors. 2016;3:147-148. (In Russ.).

6. Kharitonov V.V, Kosolapova N.V., Ulyanin Yu.A. Forecasting of the investment efficiency in the multi-unit power plants. Vestnik of NRNU MEPhI. 2018;7(6):545-562. (In Russ.).

7. Akinfeeva E.V., Semenova D.Yu., Kharitonov V.V. Forecasting of investment efficiency in the digitalization of nuclear power. Studies on Russian Economic Development. 2021;6:648-653. (In Russ.).

8. Klauz A.V., Frolov I.E., Kharitonov V.V., Shaeva A.A. Calculation methodology of the criteria of the economic efficiency of the investments into the nuclear icebreakers. Izvestiya vuzov. Yadernaya Energetika. 2021;3:107-120. (In Russ.).

9. Listopadov I.Yu., Kharitonov V.V. Estimation of Investment Efficiency in Nuclear Desalination of Sea Water. Atomic Energy. 2021;130(3):174-179. (In Russ.).

10. Economic Evaluation of Bids for Nuclear Power Plants. 1999 Edition. Technical Reports Series No. 396, IAEA, Vienna, 2000. 224 p.

11. INPRO Methodology for Sustainability Assessment of Nuclear Energy Systems: Economics. INPRO Manual. IAEA Nuclear Energy Series No. NG-T-4.4. IAEA, Vienna, 2014. 92 p.

DOI: 10.33917/mic-6.113.2023.89-94

Efficient use of energy is a prerequisite for economic development. The article identifies the relationship between economic growth and the use of renewable energy sources. The study shows that renewable energy contributes to economic growth for both developing and developed countries.

References: 

1. Armeanu D.S., Joldes C.C., Gherghina S.C., Andrei J.V. (2021). Understanding the Multidimensional Linkages Among Renewable Energy, Pollution, Economic Growth and Urbanization in Contemporary Economies: Quantitative Assessments across Different Income Countries’ Groups. Renew. Sustain. Energ. Rev. 142. doi:10.1016/j.rser.2021.110818

2. Baniya B., Giurco D., Kelly S. (2021). Green Growth in Nepal and Bangladesh: Empirical Analysis and Future Prospects. Energy Policy 149. doi:10.1016/j.enpol.2020.112049

3. Come Zebra E. I., van der Windt H. J., Nhumaio G., Faaij A.P. (2021). A Review of Hybrid Renewable Energy Systems in Mini-Grids for Off-Grid Electrification in Developing Countries. Renew. Sustain. Energ. Rev. 144. doi:10.1016/j.rser.2021.111036

4. Doytch N., Narayan S. (2021). Does Transitioning towards Renewable Energy Accelerate Economic Growth? an Analysis of Sectoral Growth for a Dynamic Panel of Countries. Energy 235. doi:10.1016/j.energy.2021.121290

5. Jenniches S. (2018). Assessing the Regional Economic Impacts of Renewable Energy Sources — A Literature Review. Renew. Sustain. Energ. Rev. 93 (October), pp. 35–51. doi:10.1016/j.rser.2018.05.008

6. Ogonowski P. (2021). Application of VMCM, to Assess of Renewable Energy Impact in European Union Countries. Proced. Comput. Sci. 192, pp. 4762–4769. doi:10.1016/j.procs.2021.09.254

7. Shrinkhal R. (2019). «Economics, Technology, and Environmental Protection», in Phytomanagement of Polluted Sites (Amsterdam: Elsevier), pp. 569–580. doi:10.1016/B978-0-12-813912-7.00022-3

DOI: 10.33917/mic-6.113.2023.76-88

Forecasts are given for 2023–2028 global demand for oil and energy, as well as real GDP growth by region of the world. The linear regression models developed by the authors and graphs of the relationship between the annual growth rate of global GDP and the annual growth rate of global oil and energy demand are presented.

According to the authors, the fight against inflation by the US Federal Reserve and the Central Bank of Europe through raising interest rates leads to a decrease in investment and a decrease in the growth rate of GDP in the US and Europe.

References: 

1. «Prospects for the development of the world economy».  World Bank report dated June 05,2023. URL:  https://www.vsemirnyjbank.org/ru/publication/global- economic-prospects

2. The Central Bank kept the key rate at 7,5%

for the fifth time in a row. KOMMERSANT dated04/28/2023. URL: https://www.kommersant.ru/doc/5955429

3. The economy is reaching a plateau. GDP monitoring. KOMMERSANT dated 08/04/2023.

URL: https://www.kommersant.ru/doc/6138316

4. EDB macro forecast 2023–2025: economic growth forecast has been improved for all countries in the region. URL: https://eabr.org/press/releases/makroprognoz-eabr-2023–2025-prognozekonomicheskogo-rosta- uluchshen-dlya-vsekhstran-regiona/

5. IEA «Oil 2023 Analysis and forecast to 2028». June 2023. URL: https://www.iea.org/reports/oil-2023

6. IEA «World Energy Outlook 2022». URL:

https://iea.blob.core.windows.net/assets/830fe099–5530–48f2-a7c1–11f35d510983/WorldEnergyOutlook2022.pdf

DOI: 10.33917/mic-5.112.2023.85-93

The program to support the development of renewable energy sources on the territory of the Russian Federation (hereinafter referred to as DMP RES 2.0) is analyzed. The calculation of the current cost of installing renewable generation facilities, included in the two generations of the state program of CSA RES, is carried out. The resulting calculation allows the article to compare the current market state and cost of solar and wind generation projects in Russia in comparison with international practice. In addition, the article outlines a path to achieve grid parity in the cost of electricity from renewable energy sources, taking into account the current situation. Based on the work done, recommendations are given on the way to develop a support system for renewable energy in Russia.

References: 

Statistical Review of World Energy. URL: https://www.energyinst.org/statistical-review
2. SO UES. Report on the functioning of the UES of Russia in 2022. URL: https://www.so-ups.ru/functioning/tech-disc/tech-disc2023/otchet-o-funkcionirovanii-eehs/
3. Order of the Government of the Russian Federation dated June 9, 2020 N 1523-r “On approval of the energy strategy of the Russian Federation until 2035.” URL: https://www.garant.ru/products/ipo/prime/doc/74148810/?ysclid=lninhe5guw590149448
4. Rodygina N.Yu., Rudanets V.S. Methods of state regulation and instruments of state support for renewable energy sources in Russia and abroad. Education and Law. 2023;7:69-76. (In Russ.).
5. Salygin V.I., Guliev I.A., Ryabova M.I. Problems and prospects for the development of the renewable energy sector in China. Bulletin of MGIMO University. 2015;4 (43):36-45. (In Russ.).
6. Berezkin M.Yu., Sinyugin O.A. Features of development and measures to support renewable energy sources in Japan and the USA. Environment and Energy Science. 2022;2:4-17. (In Russ.).
7. Maksimov A.G. RES 2.0: New program for the development of «green» energy in Russia. Energy Policy. 2020;11(153):22-27. (In Russ.).
8. IRENA (2023), Renewable Energy Statistics 2023. The International Renewable Energy Agency, Abu Dhabi. URL: https://www.irena.org/Publications/2023/Jul/Renewable-energy-statistics-2023
9. IRENA Renewable Power Generation Costs in 2018. URL: https://www.irena.org/publications/2019/May/Renewable-power-generation-costs-in-2018
10. Information published for project selection. URL: https://www.atsenergo.ru/vie/otborinfo

DOI: 10.33917/mic-5.112.2023.72-84

Considered the main provisions of international agreements that limit the use of such an energy resource as coal. The authors analyzed the real situation with the production, import and consumption of other types of energy resources, such as oil and gas, which has led to the fact that the volume of production and supply of coal in the Russian Federation to domestic and foreign (foreign) client markets is practically not reduced. According to the plan developed by the Government of the Russian Federation, the development of coal mining and the entire coal industry will develop in three stages until 2035. The tasks of the first stage are now being implemented. In addition to the further development of old fields, work will be carried out to find and develop new fields according to two development scenarios – conservative and optimistic. Both scenarios assume an increase in the volume of exported coal to those countries that are the main consumers of coal – the People’s Republic of China and the Republic of India. In 2023, the Republic of Turkey joined these countries, where coal imports are only 10% less than in the Republic of India and 45% less than in the People’s Republic of China. In order to increase the supply of coal to the countries of the Asia-Pacific region, it is planned to further develop the Baikal-Amur and Trans-Siberian Railways, as well as the construction of railway and water routes for the delivery of goods, including coal, along the North-South transport corridor to the seaport in Mumbai in the Republic of India. In addition, the Northern Sea Route from Murmansk to the ports of China will be developed. Consequently, the revenues of the federal budget of the Russian Federation from coal exports will not decrease, despite the promotion of Green Energy by foreign countries.

References: 

1. The United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change. Veb-sayt OON. URL: https://www.un.org/ru/documents/decl_conv/conventions/climate_framework_conv.shtml
2. Kyoto Protocol to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change: adopted December 11, 1997 Official text in Russian. Veb-sayt OON. URL: https://www.un.org/ru/documents/decl_conv/conventions/kyoto.shtml
3. Киотский протокол 1997. Большая российская энциклопедия: [в 35 т.] / гл. ред. Ю. С. Осипов. М.: Большая российская энциклопедия, 2004-2017.
4. Wirth D.A. The Paris Agreement: A New Component of the UN Climate Regime. Bulletin of International Organizations. 2017;12(4):185-214. (In Russ.).
5. Status of Ratification of the Kyoto Protocol. Internet Archive. 04.04.2016. URL: http://unfccc.int/kyoto_protocol/status_of_ratification/items/2613.php
6. Paris Agreement. Veb-sayt OON. URL: https://www.un.org/ru/climatechange/paris-agreement
7. Lavrov: Russia leads the world in reducing greenhouse gas emissions. Veb-sayt RIA-News. 20.09.2015. URL: https://ria.ru/20150927/1285988505.html
8. Main indicators of the Ministry of Energy of the Russian Federation. Coal mining. Official site of the Ministry of Energy of the Russian Federation. URL: https://minenergo.gov.ru/node/435
9. Coal marking, coal grades. Neftegaz.RU: internet-portal. URL: https://neftegaz.ru/tech-library/energoresursy-toplivo/142506-markirovka-uglya-marki-uglya/
10. Coal Russia. Siberian Federal District. Internet-portal of the fuel and energy complex community. URL: https://energyland.info/news-show-tek-ugol-201099?ysclid=ll2h7g5uh2201248790
11. Milkin V. «Northern Star» Trotsenko began to supply coal to China. Vedomosti: internet-portal. 01.03.2023. URL: https://www.vedomosti.ru/business/articles/2023/03/01/964846-severnaya-zvezda-trotsenko?ysclid=ll2h395ymd528029044
12. «Northern Star» flotilla shines. Kommersant: internet-portal. 16.02.2021. URL: https://www.kommersant.ru/doc/4692671?ysclid=ll2hem25oc480585188
13. Severnaya Zvezda will order 28 ships for the supply of coal along the Northern Sea Route. Maritime news of Russia: internet-portal. 16.02.2021. URL: https://morvesti.ru/news/1679/88224/?ysclid=ll2hj9bwts18932996
14. The North Star will need 40 ships to transport coal from the Taimyr cluster. Neftegaz.RU: internet-portal. URL: https://neftegaz.ru/news/Suda-i-sudostroenie/697326-severnoy-zvezde-potrebuetsya-40-sudov-chtoby-vyvozit-ugol-s-mestorozhdeniya-na-taymyre/?ysclid=ljsvrxq4mg458398355
15. The IEA reported that global coal demand in 2022 reached a record 8.3 billion tons. ТАSS: internet-portal. URL: https://tass.ru/ekonomika/18382039?ysclid=ll2hsb1eag747357712
16. The IEA, in its traditional report, named the main «wild cards» of the oil market in 2023. Neftegaz.RU: internet-portal. URL: https://neftegaz.ru/news/finance/766860-mea-v-svoem-traditsionnom-doklade-nazvalo-glavnykh-dzhokerov-neftyanogo-rynka-v-2023-g/?ysclid=ll2hvy5dnl913153626
17. On approval of the Russian coal industry development program for the period up to 2035: Decree of the Government of the Russian Federation dated June 13, 2020 No. 1582-r (as amended on October 13, 2022). Consultant plus Information and legal: portal. URL: https://www.consultant.ru/document/cons_doc_LAW_355241/?ysclid=ll2jb8zqkp526142741

DOI: 10.33917/mic-4.111.2023.69-72

An analysis is given of significant changes in the export of energy resources from Russia, taking into account the global economic recession and the warm winter in Europe in comparison with 2022. It is noted that in 2023 there was a sharp change in the export flows of oil and gas from Europe to Asia (China and India), after the introduction of the EU price ceiling for Russian oil. Europe has switched to coal for power plants and buying more expensive LNG from the US instead of Russian gas.

References: 

1. Novak A. Energy policy of Russia: turn to the East // Energy policy, June 08, 2023. URL: https://energypolicy.ru/energeticheskaya-politika-rossii-razvorot-na-vostok/business/2023/14/08 /

2. Oil market, OPEC+, new markets and gasification // Neftegaz.RU. URL: https://neftegaz.ru/news/transport-and-storage/780860-neftyanoy-rynok-opek-novye-rynki-i-gazifikatsiya-a-novak-oboznachil-energeticheskie-perspektivy-ross/

The article analyzes the development of the economy and the consumption of energy resources for the coming years in Russia and abroad. The role of energy resources in the growth of prices in 2022 in the EU countries is shown. An increase in the export of energy resources from Russia to Asia (China, India) was noted, with a significant decrease in oil and gas supplies to Europe. The impact of the Russian oil price ceiling on the budget in 2023 is assessed. The results of the Davos Forum in January 2023 are analyzed.

References:

1. Alifirova E. A. Novak: oil production in Russia in 2022 will grow by 2%, gas – will fall by 18-20%. URL: https://neftegaz.ru/news/finance/763968-a-novak-dobycha-nefti-v-rossii-v-2022-g-vyrastet-na-2-gaza-upadet-na-18-20/

2. Decree of the President of the Russian Federation of December 27, 2022 No. 961 «On the application of special economic measures in the fuel and energy sector in connection with the establishment by some foreign states of the maximum price for Russian oil and oil products». – Access from the information and legal system «Garant».

3. Alifirova E. The Russian budget in January 2023 received less than 52.1 billion rubles. oil and gas revenues. URL: https://neftegaz.ru/news/finance/768980-rossiyskiy-byudzhet-v-yanvare-2023-g-nedopoluchil-52-1-mlrd-rub-neftegazovykh-dokhodov/

4. Viktorov V. LNG is exported on a record // Radio «Kommersant FM» dated December 7, 2022. URL: https://www.kommersant.ru/doc/5707622

5. Edovina T. Gas occupies the provided volume. URL: https://www.kommersant.ru/doc/5594179

6. Urvachev L. The dollar fell below 68 rubles, the euro – below 73 rubles. URL: https://www.kommersant.ru/doc/5760848

7. Babkin D. The West did not have enough ceiling. URL: https://www.kommersant.ru/doc/5760224

8. The IMF has revised forecasts for GDP dynamics in the world and in Russia // Kommersant dated 10/11/2022. URL: https://www.kommersant.ru/doc/5607636

9. Borovikova K. Davos ended with a discussion of the shaky prospects for the global economy // Kommersant, 2023. URL: https://www.kommersant.ru/doc/5782786

10. Kuzovkin A.I. Climate, the role of fuel and renewable energy sources. Microeconomics. 2022;3:28-37. (In Russ.).

DOI: 10.33917/mic-1.108.2023.52-60

This article provides an analytical review of government programs and incentive projects for leading EU companies in the use of renewable energy sources (RES), hydrogen and recycling of municipal solid waste (MSW) under economic sanctions. It has been established that the federal government of Germany, as the leading EU country, as part of stimulating the use of renewable energy, has launched a series of public and public-private (with the involvement of large investors) projects and financing programs that are aimed at private households, as well as municipalities and companies. The 7 largest projects and programs for the use of renewable energy and hydrogen were analyzed, as well as the 6 largest projects and programs for the recycling of solid waste. It has been established that renewable energy sources have begun to play an important role in the structure of the energy balance of the entire European Union, in no way inferior to fossil fuels.

References:

1. Alekseev A.E., Novitsky I.Yu., Zhenzhebir V.N., Pshava T.S., Shestov A.V. International globalization and transformation of the concept of energy security. Online journal of Science Studies. 2015;7(6(31)):2. (In Russ).

2. Alekseev A.E., Novitsky I.Yu., Zhenzhebir V.N., Pshava T.S., Dadugin M.V. Energy security in the European Union: problems of «dependence» and development. Online journal of Science Studies. 2015;7(6 (31):3. (In Russ).

3. Vukovich N.A., Polyanskaya O.A. Bioenergy as a driver of green economy development in Russia. Beneficiary. 2020;4 (37):4-10. (In Russ).

4. Novitsky I.Yu., Alekseev A.E., Pshava T.S., Zhenzhebir V.N., Shestov A.V. Energy security as a factor of international development. Online journal of Science Studies. 2015;7(6(31)):69. (In Russ).

5. Novitsky I.Yu., Alekseev A.E., Zhenzhebir V.N., Pshava T.S., Shestov A.V. European business and energy security in the light of the global crisis. Online journal of Science Studies. 2015;7(6 (31)):70. (In Russ).

6. Polozhentseva I.V., Alekseev A.E., Novitsky I.Yu., Zhenzhebir V.N., Pshava T.S. The dilemma of the political elite of the European Union countries in the energy sector. Online journal of Science Studies. 2015;7(6 (31)):78. (In Russ).

7. Polyanskaya O.A., Tatarenko V.N. Economics and management of an energy enterprise. Textbook in the direction 13.03.01 «Heat power engineering and heat engineering» profile «Industrial heat power engineering». St. Petersburg, 2020.

8. Polyanskaya O.A. The future of bioenergy. Modern aspects of the economy. 2015;9 (217):8-10. (In Russ).

9. Stolyarova A.N., Shutov O.L., Mustafinova D.S. Problems of strategic management of the development of the fuel and energy complex of Russia. Bulletin of MIRBIS. 2022;1 (29):92-99. (In Russ).

10. Teslenko I.B., Prochnova A.A. Forecast scenarios for the development of energy markets. Economics and management: problems, solutions. 2020;3(11(107)):15-19. (In Russ).

11. Filatov V.V., Dorofeev A.Yu., Palastina I.P., Polozhentseva I.V., Tsarev A.A. The economy of Russia and the Eurozone: the current state and prospects of development. Online journal of Science Studies. 2015;7(2 (27)):78. (In Russ).

DOI: 10.33917/mic-5.106.2022.79-86

Import substitution as a factor in the growth of domestic production in 2022 is again a relevant process, firstly, due to the consequences of geopolitical tensions, which entailed, among other things, the outflow of personnel, and secondly, due to the COVID-19 pandemic, which resulted in destruction of established logistics links and supply chains.

The article analyzes the process of import substitution on the example of the largest Russian generating company in the nuclear industry – the State Corporation «Rosatom».