DOI: https://doi.org/10.33917/es-2.182.2022.6-19

One of the most promising tools for monitoring and predicting social processes are agent-based models, which are widely used abroad. Their advantage lies in the consideration of the system under study at the level of its individual individuals, which increases the realism of these computer-based assessment methods. In Russia, this direction is also developing, although not so actively. The article discusses the dynamics of the population of Russia, as well as the factors of increasing the birth rate, successful examples of the practical implementation of agent models for studying social processes, a brief description of the model we developed, which includes 146 million agents, is given. With the help of this tool, a forecast of the population of Russia and an assessment of the impact on this indicator of some measures aimed at improving the demographic situation were obtained.

Источники:

1. Makarov V.L., Bakhtizin A.R., Il’in N.I. Modelirovanie i otsenka natsional’noi sily Rossii [Modeling and Assessing the National Strength of Russia]. Ekonomicheskie strategii, 2020, no 2, pp. 6–19, available at: DOI: https://doi.org/10.33917/es-2.168.2020.6-19.

2. Makarov V.L., Bakhtizin A.R., Il’in N.I., Sushko E.D. Natsional’naya bezopasnost’ Rossii [National Security of Russia]. Ekonomicheskie strategii, 2020, no 5, pp. 6–23, available at: DOI: https://doi.org/10.33917/es-5.171.2020.6-23.

3. Andreev E.M., Darskii L.E., Khar’kova T.L. Naselenie Sovetskogo Soyuza: 1922–1991 [Population of the Soviet Union: 1922–1991]. Moscow, Nauka, 1993, 143 p.

4. Federal’naya sluzhba gosudarstvennoi statistiki [Federal State Statistics Service], available at: https://rosstat.gov.ru.

5. Zdravookhranenie [Healthcare]. Federal’naya sluzhba gosudarstvennoi statistiki, available at:  https://rosstat.gov.ru/folder/13721.

6. Sobotka T., Matysiak A., Brzozowska Z. Policy responses to low fertility: How effective are they? Working Paper, May, 2019, N 1, available at: https://www.unfpa.org/sites/default/files/pub-pdf/Policy_responses_low_fertility_UNFPA_WP_Final_corrections_7Feb2020_CLEAN.pdf.

7. The World Bank, available at: https://data.worldbank.org.

8. Aganbegyan A.G. O katastroficheskom uvelichenii smertnosti i merakh po sberezheniyu naroda v Rossii [On Catastrophic Increase in Mortality and Measures to Save the People in Russia]. Ekonomicheskie strategii, 2021, no 4, pp. 6–13, available at: DOI: https://doi.org/10.33917/es-4.178.2021.6-13.

9. Country Comparisons — Death Rate. The World Factbook, available at: https://www.cia.gov/the-world-factbook/field/death-rate/country-comparison.

10. Goldstein J.R., Koulovatianos C., Li J., Schr der C. Evaluating how child allowances and daycare subsidies affect fertility. Goethe University Frankfurt am Main, available at: http://nbn-resolving.de/urn:nbn:de:hebis:30:3-430067.

11. Kalwij A. The impact of family policy expenditure on fertility in western Europe. Demography, 2010, N 47(2), pp. 503–519, available at: DOI: https://doi.org/10.1353/dem.0.0104.

DOI: https://doi.org/10.33917/es-1.181.2022.34-39

The article dwells on the problems of organizing state audit based on digital technologies. The concept of digital register and digital platforms is proposed, the author also describes system and software solutions that allow to provide continuous audit and, on its basis, adaptive management of public resources based on audit data in the economic-mathematical balance model that characterizes intersectoral production relationships in the country’s economy.

Источники:

1. Iskusstvennyi intellekt v audite: snimaem nalet mistiki [Artificial Intelligence in Audit: Removing the Mystique]. GAAP.RU, available at: https://gaap.ru/articles/Iskusstvennyy_intellekt_v_audite_snimaem_nalet_mistiki/

2. Blokchein v mire audita. Udastsya li proektu Auditchain proizvesti revolyutsiyu na rynke finansovoi otchetnosti i audita? [Blockchain in the World of Audit. Will the Auditchain Project Succeed in Revolutionizing the Financial Reporting and Audit Market?]. ClickChain, available at: https://clickchain.ru/2018/07/31/blokchejn-v-mire-audita/

3. Schetnaya palata Rossiiskoi Federatsii, available at: http://audit.gov.ru/about/

4. Schetnaya palata pereidet na tsifrovoi audit v techenie trekh let [Accounts Chamber will Switch to Digital Audit Within Three Years]. TASS, 2018, August, 2, available at: https://tass.ru/ekonomika/5423538.

5. Tsifrovoi audit — budushchee Schetnoi palaty [Digital Audit is the Future of the Accounts Chamber]. Schetnaya palata RF, 2019, October, 11, available at: http://audit.gov.ru/press_center/news/38884.

6. Tsifrovye tekhnologii v bukhgalterskoi i auditorskoi deyatel’nosti [Digital Technologies in Accounting and Auditing]. BizEcucate, available at: https://bizeducate.com/11/2018/tsifrovye-tehnologii-v-buhgalterskoj-i-auditorskoj-deyatelnosti/

DOI: https://doi.org/10.33917/es-1.181.2022.20-33

The introduction of digital technologies has a significant impact on the development of the entire public administration system and its most important element — the strategic planning system. Modern digital intelligent technologies and the work of government bodies based on the advanced achievements of management science and the unity of methodological approaches make it possible to raise the strategic planning system to a qualitatively new level. The key to success is the coordinated development of both the public administration system itself and the nationwide information and control systems. The authors, based on the analysis of the content of strategic management activities and the information used for this activity, formulated general approaches to the choice of information technologies to ensure the implementation of the stages of strategic  management.

Источники:

1. Putin V.V. Zasedanie Soveta Bezopasnosti 27 sentyabrya 2021 g. [Meeting of the Security Council on September 27, 2021. Ofitsial’nyi sait Prezidenta RF, available at: http://kremlin.ru/events/president/news/66777.

2. Ukaz Prezidenta RF ot 8 noyabrya 2021 g. N 633 “Ob utverzhdenii Osnov gosudarstvennoi politiki v sfere strategicheskogo planirovanii v Rossiiskoi Federatsii” [Decree of the President of the Russian Federation of November 8, 2011 No. 633 “On Approval of the Fundamentals of State Policy in the Sphere of Strategic Planning in the Russian Federation”]. Garant, available at: https://www.garant.ru/products/ipo/prime/doc/402915816/

3. Kudryashova E.V. Informatsionnye tekhnologii dlya strategicheskogo planirovaniya v Rossii: etapy razvitiya i perspektivy [Information Technology for Strategic Planning in Russia: Development Stages and Prospects]. Gosudarstvennaya vlast’ i mestnoe samoupravlenie, 2021, no 2, pp. 36–40.

4. Andreeva Z.K., Baryshnikov P.Yu., Zhurenkov D.A., et al. Strategicheskoe tselepolaganie v situatsionnykh tsentrakh razvitiya [Strategic Goal-setting in Situational Development Centers]. Pod red. V.E. Lepskogo, A.N. Raikova. Moscow, Kogito-Tsentr, 2018, 320 p.

5. Kupryashin G.L., Shramm A.E. O printsipakh datatsentrizma, setetsentrizma i komandnotsentrizma v kontekste informatizatsii gosudarstvennogo upravleniya [On Principles of Data, Network, and Chain-Of-Command Centricity in the Context of Digital Governance]. Gosudarstvennoe upravlenie. Elektronnyi vestnik, vyp. 76, 2019, October.

6. Zatsarinnyi A.A., Il’in N.I., Kolin K.K., et al. Situatsionnye tsentry razvitiya v polisub”ektnoi srede [Situational Development Centers in a Multi-subject Environment]. Problemy upravleniya, 2017, no 5, pp. 31–42.

7. Kaplan R., Norton D. Strategicheskie karty. Transformatsiya nematerial’nykh aktivov v material’nye rezul’taty [Strategic Maps. Converting Intangible Assets into Tangible Results]. Moscow, Olimp-Biznes, 2005, 512 p.

8. Kaplan R., Norton D. Sbalansirovannaya sistema pokazatelei. Ot strategii k deistviyu [The Balanced Scorecard. From Strategy to Action]. Moscow, Olimp-Biznes, 2017, 320 p.

DOI: https://doi.org/10.33917/es-1.181.2022.6-19

The article highlights the short history of the Russian and world digitalization in details, focusing on the identified problems and priorities, which must be resolved if to successfully build and further effectively function information society in all its aspects.

The theoretical part has formed important opinions and ideas about the topic under study and shows that the spread of digital technology in all spheres of life is evidence of an active stage in the transition of human civilization from an industrial development stage to a digital one with social reality relevant to it. An analysis to identify the process of digitalizing human civilization’s linear development vector based on creating an indicative planning system allowed the author to conclude that there is a long-awaited transition to a purposeful scientific management of society and the state.

As it follows from the title of the article, legal coverage and all-round socialization are dominant in providing a successful solution to many challenges of digitalization. Russia’s political class is fully aware of the need to develop legal provisions, which are able to successfully prevent and mitigate possible threats to information society. It is primarily about the data breach related to both the functioning of the State and corporate/personal data. But the proposed draft legal acts of various kinds do not provide enough insight into how these protective, desirably preventive measures will be globally and nationally ensured.

Digitalization offers great opportunities for a rapid economic and social recovery to society. Developing information and communication technology gives an unprecedented rise in productivity, creates new forms of work organization, ensures conditions for increased trade in goods and services, offers infinite possibilities for education, communication between representatives of various societies and cultures, community commitment and network. The challenges of digitalization are so complicated that they do not seem possible to be solved by legal precedents without enhancing the population’s moral upbringing. The efforts of the really responsible citizens, the users of digital technology, the Internet initially can only effectively confront a new global digital environment in which there are opportunities to act rather immorally while at the same time anonymously and with impunity. We shall have to act gradually, but as strict as possible in the domestic and international legalization of the “digital environment”, paying a special attention to its moral dimension and the creation of particular barriers for ethical violations.

Источники:

1. Moiseev N.N. S myslyami o budushchem Rossii [Thinking About the Future of Russia]. Moscow, Fond sodeistviya razvitiyu sotsial’nykh i politicheskikh nauk, 1997, pp. 59–60.

2. Pochemu Mask ne da Vinchi. Kasperskaya — o tsifrovom kontrole i “kloune” iz SShA [Why Musk is not da Vinci. Mrs Kaspersky — About Digital Control and the “Clown” from the USA]. Argumenty i fakty, 2021, June, 25, available at: https://aif.ru/society/web/pochemu_mask_ne_da_vinchi_kasperskaya_-_o_cifrovom_kontrole_i_kloune_iz_ssha.

DOI: https://doi.org/10.33917/es-5.179.2021.46-53

The article examines the current state of the world and Russian retail e-commerce markets and assesses the prospects for their development — the study of these issues is the purpose of the work. The research topic is relevant, because in the context of the global digital revolution and the rapid development of the world economy, the development of e-commerce is becoming one of the key drivers of the growth of all trade and the economy. To achieve this goal, based on the integrated application of such scientific methods as analysis, systematization, synthesis, generalization, classification and description, the following tasks were performed: the main development approaches included in the strategic management system of e-commerce market leaders were identified; the dynamics of the global and Russian e-commerce markets were analyzed; a comparative analysis of the development of e-commerce markets of the leading countries in terms of market volume and market growth rate was made; the key drivers and obstacles to the development of the global and Russian e-commerce markets, which are related to the current economic situation, the state of legal support and changes in consumer preferences, are identified and described; forecasts and trends in the development of markets are formulated.

DOI: https://doi.org/10.33917/es-5.179.2021.36-45

Acceleration of technological and institutional development results in reduced lags between innovations and their installation in the economy and society, which modifies long-wave patterns (but doesn’t cancel them). In this regard, the question arises on the possibility of a “Russian economic miracle” on a new financial and digital basis. This is a question about ecosystems (digital platforms — a relatively recent complex financial and production innovation), the prototypes of which, however, have already been in history. Historical studies of protoecosystems and modern ecosystems, addressed by the author, allow us to answer the question: “ecosystem” (convergent) technologies are a factor undermining macroeconomic stability in the interests of a narrow circle of global and local players and (or) a mechanism for changing technological and institutional patterns (?!).

DOI: https://doi.org/10.33917/es-4.178.2021.60-69

In this article, the authors raise the issues of compliance (adequacy) of the ideology, approaches and infrastructure of the national security system in the light of global changes in the economy, de facto hybrid wars and ongoing natural and environmental emergencies. As a central element of preparation for such events and reaction to them, the authors considers mobilization in the classical sense, enshrined in the legislation, analyzes it for compliance with current hybrid threats, and also suggests new approaches to the digital transformation of the complex system of national security and mobilization, in particular

DOI: https://doi.org/10.33917/es-2.176.2021.22-37

Russia faces a critical choice. The world civilizational shift objectively determines the new roles of the individual, society, state and new models of their relationships and mutual influences. The digital citizen and the digital society are becoming the main factors of success in achieving national strategic goals, the balance of individual and social development forms the social order of the 21st century in Russia

DOI: 10.33917/es-1.175.2021.64-69

Technological advances have resulted in rapid decrease of the data processing unit cost, which has stimulated a significant increase in the use of digital information that can be manipulated at a high speed and with low marginal costs. This change facilitated the use and integration of digital products and transactions, which led to continuous structural transformation of the economy. Digital technologies are increasingly blurring the boundaries between human life and information technologies, which requires a systemic approach to innovative business models, but so far general concept and unified methodology for systemic development of digital business models are missing. The present article summarizes the main approaches to analyzing changes in business models under the influence of digital transformation. The latter has led both to modification of global value chains and to the development of a new type of global digital platforms operating based on a new system of competitive advantages

DOI: 10.33917/es-1.175.2021.50-61

In China, the strategy for the national information infrastructure development is implementing a large-scale and unparalleled project for developing artificial intelligence and its application to solving critical problems. Threats and risks of the current stage left no choice to China. The best Soviet and Russian developments of centralized planning and modeling are actively used, advanced American experience in applying neuroinformation technologies to influence society is being adopted. In fact, a neuroinformational mega-matrix is being formed, which will allow the Chinese authorities to keep the seething mass of people and organizations within a controlled circuit. Configuring cognitive communications in the socio-technical system “person — infocommunication environment — the state” allows to develop a social credit model for forming behavior vectors in large groups of the population with culling disloyal in behaviour (implemented now) and disloyal in thinking (soon to be implemented) human units of the China-community