DOI: 10.33917/es-5.197.2024.6-13

The article dwells on technology developed and tested in the United States for constructing political future with the help of targeted force actions within the framework of the fuzzy logic of political multi-steps. The failed quasi-assassination attempt on the US presidential candidate Donald Trump on July 13, 2024 is a political combination preempting the civil war. Its goal is to reduce destructiveness of the political clash following the expected and even more dubious than in 2020, Joe Biden’s victory in the 2024 election, which implied incorrect ways of removing Trump from the presidential race. As a result, a bifurcation point in the US political development has been passed: now there is someone to implement a package of unpopular strategic measures to reorganize the US. Essentially, the murky episode of the assassination attempt turned out to be a way out of the political deadlock.

References:

[1] — [8] no 4/2024, p. 25.

9. Loginov E.L. Velichina dobavlennoy stoimosti v eksporte-importe kak vazhneyshiy geoekonomicheskiy faktor pobedy Rossii v torgovo-ekonomicheskoy voyne: Vneshnepoliticheskie interesy Rossii: istoriya i sovremennost’: Sb. materialov XII Vserossiyskoy nauchnoy konferentsii. Samara, 26 aprelya 2024 g. [Added value amount of exports-imports as the most important geo-economic factor of Russia’s victory in the trade and economic war: Foreign policy interests of Russia: history and modernity: Sourcebook of the XII All-Russian scientific conference. Samara, April 26, 2024]. Samara, SAMARAMA, 2024, pp. 122–126.

10. Ageev A.I., Bakhtizin A.R., Makarov V.L., Loginov E.L., Khabriev B.R. Ekonomicheskiy fundament pobedy: strategicheskiy prognoz ustoychivosti ekonomiki Rossii v usloviyakh sanktsionnykh atak [Economic Foundation of Victory: a Strategic Forecast for the Russian Economy Stability in the Face of Sanctions]. Ekonomicheskie strategii, 2023, vol. 25, no 3(189), pp. 6–15, DOI: https://doi.org/10.33917/es-3.189.2023.6-15

11. Ageev A.I., Loginov E.L. Strategicheskaya predopredelennost’ spetsial’nykh voennykh operatsiy v mirovoy supersisteme [Strategic Predetermination of Special Military Operations in the World Supersystem]. Ekonomicheskie strategii, 2023, vol. 25, no 4(190), pp. 6–19, DOI: https://doi.org/10.33917/es-4.190.2023.6-19

12. Loginov E.L., Karoyan K.E., Kosakyan D.L. Podkhody k formirovaniyu universal’noy modeli zarubezhnogo klastera rossiyskikh finansovykh struktur v perspektivnykh zonakh mirovoy ekonomiki [Approaches to forming a universal model of a foreign cluster of Russian financial structures in promising areas of the world economy]. Samoupravlenie, 2019, vol. 2, no 1(114), pp. 88–91.

13. Bakhtizin A.R., Makarov V.L., Loginov E.L., Khabriev B.R., Vu Ts., Vu Z. Gibridnye voyny v makroekonomicheskoy supersisteme XXI veka [Hybrid Wars in the Macroeconomic Supersystem of the XXI Century]. Ekonomicheskie strategii, 2023, vol. 25, no 2(188), pp. 6–23, DOI: https://doi.org/10.33917/es-2.188.2023.6–23

DOI: 10.33917/es-4.196.2024.18-25

The article dwells on technology developed and tested in the United States for constructing political future with the help of targeted force actions within the framework of the fuzzy logic of political multi-steps. The failed quasi-assassination attempt on the US presidential candidate Donald Trump on July 13, 2024 is a political combination preempting the civil war. Its goal is to reduce destructiveness of the political clash following the expected and even more dubious than in 2020, Joe Biden’s victory in the 2024 election, which implied incorrect ways of removing Trump from the presidential race. As a result, a bifurcation point in the US political development has been passed: now there is someone to implement a package of unpopular strategic measures to reorganize the US. Essentially, the murky episode of the assassination attempt turned out to be a way out of the political deadlock.

References:

1. Brat’ya Strugatskie. Obitaemyy ostrov [Inhabited Island]. Moscow, Detskaya literatura, 1971. 320 p., ill. (Biblioteka priklyucheniy i nauchnoy fantastiki.)

2. Ageev A.I. Rol’ sanktsiy, konfliktov i spetsoperatsiy: razmyshleniya o budushchem. Chast’ 2 [The Role of Sanctions, Conflicts and Special Operations: Reflections on the Future. Part 2]. Nauchnyy vestnik oboronno-promyshlennogo kompleksa Rossii, 2024, no 1, pp. 33–42.

3. Ageev A.I., Loginov E.L. Krakh dollara: proektirovanie deystviy Rossii v usloviyakh global’nogo ekonomicheskogo kollapsa [The Dollar Collapse: Projecting Russia’s Actions in the Face of Global Economic Collapse]. Ekonomicheskie strategii, 2022, vol. 24, no 4(184), pp. 56–69, DOI: https://doi.org/10.33917/es- 4.184.2022.56-69

4. Ageev A.I., Loginov E.L. Mirovoe soobshchestvo v usloviyakh sverkhkriticheskoy bifurkatsii: Upravlenie slozhnymi organizatsionnymi i tekhnicheskimi sistemami v usloviyakh sverkhkriticheskikh situatsiy: Materialy mezhdunarodnoy nauchno-prakticheskoy konferentsii, Moskva, 21–22 aprelya 2022 g. [World Community in Conditions of Supercritical Bifurcation: Management of Complex Organizational and Technical Systems in Conditions of Supercritical Situations: Proceedings of the International Scientific and Practical Conference, Moscow, April 21–22, 2022.]. Moscow, Institut ekonomicheskikh strategiy, 2022, pp. 9–12.

5. Loginov E.L., Zarbaliev S.M., Grigor’ev V.V. Otsenka veroyatnostnykh kharakteristik sluchaynykh protsessov v mirovoy ekonomike v usloviyakh nelineynoy dinamiki s sushchestvennoy khaoticheskoy komponentoy [Assessment of Probabilistic Characteristics of Random Processes in the Global Economy under Conditions of Nonlinear Dynamics with a Significant Chaotic Component]. Iskusstvennye obshchestva, 2020, vol. 15, no 1, p. 5.

6. Loginov E.L. Tsifrovye tekhnologii politicheskoy bor’by: neyrosetevye imperativy informatsionnogo protivodeystviya popytkam perekhvata upravleniya v sotsial’no-politicheskoy srede [Digital Technologies of Political Struggle: Neural Network Imperatives of Information Counteraction to Attempts of Intercepting Control in the Socio-political Environment]. Moscow, Rusayns, 2024, 234 p.

DOI: 10.33917/mic-4.117.2024.5-17

In the United States and China, in conditions of preparing for a major war, there is an intensive restructuring of not only the armed forces, but also the industry that provides military needs. The key trend is the development and implementation of civil-military merger strategies. The Russian experience in conducting Special Military Operation, including an analysis of NATO’s problems with providing equipment and weapons to Russia’s real and potential military opponents and countering these processes by the Russian defence industry, has actualized the problem of developing a new approach to organizational and strategic engineering in the Russian defence and civil industries and scientific-technical sector.

References:

1. Ageev A.I., Loginov E.L. Russia in the new economic reality. Moscow, INES, 2016. 460 p.

2. Ageev A.I. Dynamics and structure of global risks. Civil defense strategy: problems and research. 2013;3(2(5)):7–8.

3. Ageev A.I., Bakhtizin A.R., Makarov V.L., Loginov E.L., Khabriev B.R. Economic Foundation of Victory: a Strategic Forecast for the Russian Economy Stability in the Face of Sanctions. Economic strategies. 2023;25(3(189)):6–15. DOI: https://doi.org/10.33917/es-3.189.2023.6-15

4. Ivanov S. US military innovation. Infrastructure and projects. Mirtesen, 2021, September 15. URL:  https://s30116489994.mirtesen.ru/blog/43322544035/Voennyie-innovatsii-SSHA-Infrastruktura-i-proektyi

5. Kokoshin A.A. Military reform in China in 2015–2020: defense and foreign policy aspects. Moscow, ISPI RAN, 2016. pp. 39.

6. Ageev A.I., Kapustyan S.G., Korobkin V.V. State and forecast expectations for the development of the global robotics market. Artificial Intelligence. Theory and Practice. 2023;3(3):50–58.

7. Grabchak E.P., Loginov E.L., Chinaliev V.U., Epishkin I.I. Management of the development of complex scientific and technical complexes based on intelligent digital platforms (implementation of the competencies of the USSR State Committee for Science and Technology in the digital economy). Moscow, Institute of Economic Strategies, 2023. 504 p.

8. Ageev A.I., Loginov E.L., Efremov D.N. The State committee for Scientific-Technical Policy: center of network concentration of Scientific-Technical Ties in Key Knowledge Areas for Integrated management in the Science and engineering field. Economic strategies. 2014;16(8(124)):12–21.

9. Grabchak E.P., Loginov E.L. Management of research, power engineering and electric power companies as elements of an integrated industrial technological complex: Instrument making in the 21st century – 2020. Integration of science, education and production: Sat. materials of the XVI All-Russian Scientific and Technical Conference. Izhevsk: Izhevsk State Technical University named after M.T. Kalashnikov, 2020. pp. 16–21.

10. Grabchak E.P., Loginov E.L. Formation of an integrated information environment for digital support of life cycle management processes of scientific and technical research and development in the Russian electric power industry: Modern information technologies. Theory and practice: Materials of the V All-Russian Scientific and Practical Conference. Cherepovets: Cherepovets State University, 2020. pp. 32–35.

DOI: 10.33917/es-5.191.2023.6-21

The chronicle of the situation development, which actually came very close to a global military catastrophe, only outwardly looks like a random kaleidoscope of events. Behind the chaos of events, are becoming more evident extremely strict strategic schemes for operating with global power factors in various spheres of activit y: political, military, economic, etc. The article outlines the systemic elements of an approach that considers military conflict in general and Special military operation in particular as a militarized form of struggle for power — an instrument of global economic regulation of economic activit y. This approach makes it possible to focus the key components of Russia’s necessary strategy in the context of a new round of struggle between imperialist predators for the format of systemic and structural redivision of the world that they need.

References:

1. Ageev A.I. Kholodnaya voina — 2.0: realii i perspektivy [Cold War — 2.0: Realities and Prospects]. Ekonomicheskie strategii, 2015, vol. 17, no 2(128), pp. 74–79.

2. Bakhtizin A.R., Makarov V.L., Loginov E.L., Khabriev B.R., Vu Ts., Vu Z. Gibridnye voiny v makroekonomicheskoi supersisteme XXI veka [Hybrid Wars in the Macroeconomic Supersystem of the XXI Century]. Ekonomicheskie strategii, 2023, vol. 25, no 2(188), pp. 6–23, DOI: https://doi.org/10.33917/es-2.188.2023.6–23

3. Ageev A.I., Bakhtizin A.R., Makarov V.L., Loginov E.L., Khabriev B.R. Ekonomicheskii fundament pobedy: strategicheskii prognoz ustoichivosti ekonomiki Rossii v usloviyakh sanktsionnykh atak [Economic Foundation of Victory: a Strategic Forecast for the Russian Economy Stability in the Face of Sanctions]. Ekonomicheskie strategii, 2023, vol. 25, no 3(189), pp. 6–15, DOI: 10.33917/es-3.189.2023.6-15

4. Denisov A.A., Denisova E.V. Kratkii ocherk osnov teorii upravlyaemoi konfrontatsii [Brief Outline of the Theory of Controlled Confrontation]. Informatsionnye voiny, 2014, no 1, pp. 24–33.

5. Ageev A.I., Loginov E.L. Mirovoe soobshchestvo v usloviyakh sverkhkriticheskoi bifurkatsii: Upravlenie slozhnymi organizatsionnymi i tekhnicheskimi sistemami v usloviyakh sverkhkriticheskikh situatsii: Materialy mezhdunarodnoi nauchno-prakticheskoi konferentsii [World Community in Conditions of Supercritical Bifurcation: Management of complex organizational and technical systems in conditions of supercritical situations: Proceedings of the International Scientific and Practical Conference]. Moscow, INES, 2022, pp. 9–12.

6. Ageev A.I., Loginov E.L. Novaya bol’shaya voina: khroniki khorosho zabytogo budushchego [New Large-Scale War: Chronicles of Well Forgotten Future]. Ekonomicheskie strategii, 2014, vol. 16, no 6–7(122–123), pp. 16–33.

7. Ageev A.I., Loginov E.L. Strategicheskaya predopredelennost’ spetsial’nykh voennykh operatsii v mirovoi supersisteme [Strategic Predetermination of Special Military Operations in the World Supersystem]. Ekonomicheskie strategii, 2023, vol. 25, no 4(190), no 6–19, DOI: 10.33917/es-4.190.2023.6-19

DOI: 10.33917/es-3.189.2023.6-15

Key parameters of attacks directions on the Russian economy and forecasts of the expected results, which previously have inspired confidence in Western states that political regime would inevitability fall, which stimulated the US and EU sanctions activity, were developed by a number of authoritative Western expert structures. Western strategies for collapsing the Russian economy in 2022–2023 with the help of sanctions, formed on the basis of these forecasts, did not bring the desired result. At the same time, alternative forecasts of a group of Russian scientists from the CEMI RAS and their Chinese colleagues on stability of the economies of Russia and China in the event of a friendly policy in the context of trade wars with the US and the EU, made in 2019, were fully confirmed. At the core of these forecasts there are analytical tools based on agent modeling.

References:

1. Ageev A.I., Loginov E.L. Mirovoe soobshchestvo v usloviyakh sverkhkriticheskoi bifurkatsii Upravlenie slozhnymi organizatsionnymi i tekhnicheskimi sistemami v usloviyakh sverkhkriticheskikh situatsii: Materialy mezhdunarodnoi nauchno-prakticheskoi konferentsii [World Community in Conditions of Supercritical Bifurcation: Management of Complex Organizational and Technical Systems in Conditions of Supercritical Situations: Proceedings of the international scientific and practical conference]. Moscow, INES, 2022, pp. 9–12.

2. Ageev A.I., Loginov E.L. Novaya bol’shaya voina: khroniki khorosho zabytogo budushchego [New Large-Scale War: Chronicles of Well Forgotten Future]. Ekonomicheskie strategii, 2014, vol. 16, no 6–7(122–123), pp. 16–33.

3. Makarov V.L., Vu Ts., Vu Z., Khabriev B.R., Bakhtizin A.R. Mirovye torgovye voiny: stsenarnye raschety posledstvii [World Trade Wars: Scenario Calculations of Consequences]. Vestnik Rossiiskoi akademii nauk, 2020, vol. 90, no 2, pp. 169–179.

4. Makarov V.L., Vu Ts., Vu Z., Khabriev B.R., Bakhtizin A.R. Sovremennye instrumenty otsenki posledstvii mirovykh torgovykh voin [Modern Tools for Assessing the Effects of World Trade Wars]. Vestnik Rossiiskoi akademii nauk, 2019, vol. 89, no 7, pp. 745–754.

5. Tsigas M., McDaniel C., Schropp S., Mahlstein K. Potential economic effects of sanctions on Russia: An Allied trade embargo. Voxeu.org, 2022, available at: https://voxeu.org/article/potential-economic-effects-allied-trade-embargo-russia.

6. Mahlstein K., McDaniel C., Schropp S., Tsigas M. Estimating the economic effects of sanctions on Russia: An Allied trade embargo. The World Economy, 2022, no 45, pp. 3344–3383, available at: https://doi.org/10.1111/twec.13311.

7. Bryan R., Johnson G., Sytsma T., Priebe M. Does the U.S. Economy Benefit from U.S. Alliances and Forward Military Presence? Santa Monica, CA: RAND Corporation, 2022, available at: https://www.rand.org/pubs/research_reports/RRA739-5.

8. Bolhuis A. Marijn, Jiaqian Chen, Benjamin Kett. Fragmentation in Global Trade: Accounting for Commodities. IMF Working Paper. 2023. No. WP 23/73.

DOI: 10.33917/es-6.172.2020.138-143

The article notes that in relation to the growth of the shadow component in the Russian economy, identifying the essence of the shadow economy is especially relevant. The author addresses shadow processes as the basis of the shadow economy, their place in its structure, basic principles of formation and classification according to various criteria.

DOI: 10.33917/es-3.169.2020.56-65

Regular meeting of the Bogomolov Club, held at the Institute for Economic Strategies on January 28, 2020, was dedicated to the issues of trade and economic war between the USA and China. The keynote address was delivered by the famous Russian sinologist, Doctor of Economics, Professor, Director of the Center for Social and Economic Research of China at the RAS Institute of the Far East, member of the Russian Association of Sinologists, the European Association of Chinese Studies Andrey V. Ostrovsky.

One of the US most important competitive advantages is the ability to carry out multi-way strategic financial transactions allowing to export arising crisis phenomena out of the US economy, providing the stability of proper development. Institutional mechanisms of financial and economic balancing of the US economy form the basis for these operations. With their help logical chain of managerial global iterations is implemented: “formation of the money supply in the US dollars currency” → “manipulating financial flows volumes and directions in the form of real dollars (cash and non-cash) and in the form of derived financial instruments (derivatives etc.)” → “the US possibility to transfer world crises into the format of phased strategic financial transactions in the US interests”.

Well-known political analyst and economist does not conceal feeling quite uncomfortable in the capitalist world: not a dissident, but a dissenter, who is probably being tolerated just because of the democratic principles proclaimed in these countries.

The crisis has shown that government together with the central bank can secure financial market stabilization by allocating additional funds to credit institutions for increasing risk reserves and mitigating effects of “toxic” assets accumulation.