DOI: https://doi.org/10.33917/es-2.182.2022.6-19

One of the most promising tools for monitoring and predicting social processes are agent-based models, which are widely used abroad. Their advantage lies in the consideration of the system under study at the level of its individual individuals, which increases the realism of these computer-based assessment methods. In Russia, this direction is also developing, although not so actively. The article discusses the dynamics of the population of Russia, as well as the factors of increasing the birth rate, successful examples of the practical implementation of agent models for studying social processes, a brief description of the model we developed, which includes 146 million agents, is given. With the help of this tool, a forecast of the population of Russia and an assessment of the impact on this indicator of some measures aimed at improving the demographic situation were obtained.

Источники:

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DOI: https://doi.org/10.33917/es-2.176.2021.45-51

The last five years in the Russian Federation have again been marked by serious concern in the context of the development of demographic processes. Today, leading demographers are talking about a second wave of depopulation. Despite all the efforts made by the government, it is not possible in the foreseeable future to eradicate the negative impact of the retrospective state of the landscape, established by historical changes, which affected, first of all, the age-sex structure of the population (regressive type for women).