DOI: 10.33917/es-6.192.2023.40-45

The reasons for Russia’s unique success in relieving the sanctions shocks of 2022 and signs of its plunge into prolonged sanctions stress from 2023 are described. It is shown that Russia has exhausted the advantages of a “big country” in increasing macro-financial stability, and its model of recovery growth creates imbalances that aggravate sanctions deformations.

References:

1. Hufbauer G.C., Schott J.J., Elliott K.A. Economic sanctions reconsidered. Washington, DC, Peterson Institute for International Economics, 2009.

2. Morgan T.C., Syropoulos C., Yotov Y.V. Economic sanctions: Evolution, consequences, and challenges. Journal of Economic Perspectives, 2023. Vol. 37. No. 1. P. 3–29.

3. Mulder N. The economic weapon: The rise of sanctions as a tool of modern war. New Haven, Yale University Press, 2022.

4. Felbermayr G., Morgan T.C., Syropoulos C., Yotov Y.V. Understanding economic sanctions: Interdisciplinary perspectives on theory and evidence. European Economic Review, 2021, vol. 135, no 1, p. 103720.

5. Chowdhry S., Hinz J., Kamin K., Wanner J. Brothers in arms: The value of coalitions in sanctions regimes. Kiel Working Papers, 2022, no 2234.

6. Russia Sanctions Dashboard. Castellum.AI, available at: https://www.castellum.ai/russia-sanctions-dashboard

7. Smorodinskaya N.V., Katukov D.D. Rossiya v usloviyakh sanktsii: predely adaptatsii [Russia under Sanctions: Limits of Adaptation]. Vestnik Instituta ekonomiki RAN, 2022, no 6, pp. 52–67.

8. Sal’nikov V.A., Galimov D.I., Gnidchenko A.A. O promezhutochnykh itogakh razvitiya promyshlennosti s nachala 2022 g.: proizvodstvo i investitsii [On the Interim Results of Industrial Development since the Beginning of 2022: Production and Investment]. Trinadtsat’ tezisov ob ekonomike, 2023, no 3.

9. Bank Rossii. O chem govoryat trendy [Bank of Russia. What are the trends saying?]. Byulleten’ Departamenta issledovanii i prognozirovaniya, 2023, no 5.

10. Russia Hikes Interest Rates Despite World’s Biggest Currency Surge. Bloomberg, available at: https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-10-27/

russia-hikes-rate-sharply-despite-world-s-biggest-currency-surge

11. Gutmann J., Neuenkirch M., Neumeier F. The economic effects of international sanctions: An event study. Journal of Comparative Economics, 2023, vol. 180, pp. 1–18.

The article analyzes the development of the economy and the consumption of energy resources for the coming years in Russia and abroad. The role of energy resources in the growth of prices in 2022 in the EU countries is shown. An increase in the export of energy resources from Russia to Asia (China, India) was noted, with a significant decrease in oil and gas supplies to Europe. The impact of the Russian oil price ceiling on the budget in 2023 is assessed. The results of the Davos Forum in January 2023 are analyzed.

References:

1. Alifirova E. A. Novak: oil production in Russia in 2022 will grow by 2%, gas – will fall by 18-20%. URL: https://neftegaz.ru/news/finance/763968-a-novak-dobycha-nefti-v-rossii-v-2022-g-vyrastet-na-2-gaza-upadet-na-18-20/

2. Decree of the President of the Russian Federation of December 27, 2022 No. 961 «On the application of special economic measures in the fuel and energy sector in connection with the establishment by some foreign states of the maximum price for Russian oil and oil products». – Access from the information and legal system «Garant».

3. Alifirova E. The Russian budget in January 2023 received less than 52.1 billion rubles. oil and gas revenues. URL: https://neftegaz.ru/news/finance/768980-rossiyskiy-byudzhet-v-yanvare-2023-g-nedopoluchil-52-1-mlrd-rub-neftegazovykh-dokhodov/

4. Viktorov V. LNG is exported on a record // Radio «Kommersant FM» dated December 7, 2022. URL: https://www.kommersant.ru/doc/5707622

5. Edovina T. Gas occupies the provided volume. URL: https://www.kommersant.ru/doc/5594179

6. Urvachev L. The dollar fell below 68 rubles, the euro – below 73 rubles. URL: https://www.kommersant.ru/doc/5760848

7. Babkin D. The West did not have enough ceiling. URL: https://www.kommersant.ru/doc/5760224

8. The IMF has revised forecasts for GDP dynamics in the world and in Russia // Kommersant dated 10/11/2022. URL: https://www.kommersant.ru/doc/5607636

9. Borovikova K. Davos ended with a discussion of the shaky prospects for the global economy // Kommersant, 2023. URL: https://www.kommersant.ru/doc/5782786

10. Kuzovkin A.I. Climate, the role of fuel and renewable energy sources. Microeconomics. 2022;3:28-37. (In Russ.).

DOI: https://doi.org/10.33917/es-6.186.2022.86-91

We describe the “window of opport unity” objectively opened up after the coronacrisis for Russia’s entering advanced service niches in global industrial chains and improving its international specialization. We show that after falling under Western sanctions in Spring 2022, Russia has lost this opportunity and suffers a technological rollback due to isolation from global markets.

References:

1. Export by Product Group. 2020. WITS, available at: https://wits.worldbank.org/

2. Smorodinskaya N.V., Katukov D.D., Malygin V.E. Global’nye stoimostnye tsepochki v epokhu neopredelennosti: preimushchestva, uyazvimosti, sposoby ukrepleniya rezil’entnosti [Global Value Chains in the Age of Uncertainty: Advantages, Vulnerabilities, Ways for Enhancing Resilience]. Baltiiskii region, 2021, no 3, pp. 78–107.

3. Ivanov D. Viable supply chain model: Integrating agility, resilience and sustainability perspectives-lessons from and thinking beyond the COVID-19 pandemic. Annals of operations research, 2020. P. 1–21.

4. World Bank. World development report 2020: Trading for development in the age of global value chains. Washington, DC, World Bank, 2020.

5. World Bank. Russia integrates: Deepening the country’s integration in the global economy. Washington, DC, World Bank, 2020.

6. Abdrakhmanova G.I., et al. Sektor IKT v 2021 godu: na pike rosta v preddverii novykh uslovii [ICT Sector in 2021: the Pinnacle of Growth on the Threshold of New Conditions]. Tsifrovaya ekonomika, 2022, no 56(240), available at: https://issek.hse.ru/news/655861546.html.

7. Smorodinskaya N.V., Katukov D.D. Shansy vykhoda Rossii na rynki Industrii 4.0 cherez uluchshenie svoikh pozitsii v raspredelennom proizvodstve [Russia’s Opportunities for Entering Industry 4.0 Markets by Improving Its Position in Distributed Production]. Zhurnal Novoi ekonomicheskoi assotsiatsii, 2022, no 1(53), pp. 223–231.

8. Panel’ monitoringa sanktsii protiv Rossii [Russia Sanctions Dashboard]. Castellum.AI, available at: https://www.castellum.ai/russia-sanctionsdashboard

9. Bank Rossii. Makroekonomika i rynki [Bank of Russia. Macroeconomics and Markets]. O chem govoryat trendy, 2022, no 2, available at: https://cbr.ru/Collection/Collection/File/40953/bulletin_22-02.pdf.

10. Simola H. Trade sanctions and Russian production. BOFIT. Policy Briefs, 2022, no 4.

11. Chorzempa M. Export controls against Russia are working — with the help of China. The Peterson Institute for International Economics, 2022, available at: https://www.piie.com/blogs/realtime-economic-issues-watch/export-controls-against-russia-are-working-help-china.

12. Bank Rossii. Osnovnye napravleniya edinoi gosudarstvennoi denezhno-kreditnoi politiki na 2023 god i period 2024 i 2025 godov [Bank of Russia. The Main Directions of the State Monetary Policy for 2023 and the Period of 2024 and 2025]. Moscow, Bank Rossii, 2022.

13. Chebakova D., Balashova A. Uchastniki rynka otsenili novuyu volnu uezzhayushchikh iz Rossii aitishnikov [Market Participants have Assessed a New Wave of IT Specialists Leaving Russia]. RBK, 2022, 28 sentyabrya, available at: https://www.rbc.ru/technology_and_media/28/09/2022/633324f39a7947518c6fd452.

DOI: 10.33917/mic-2.103.2022.5-38

Monetary policy is the most important instrument of economic growth policy, but the influence of any instrument may weaken or strengthen over time. We will designate this state as the cumulative effect of monetary policy. The purpose of the study is to determine the cumulative effect of monetary policy, with the identification of the effectiveness of its measures in ensuring the growth of the Russian economy. The methodology of the study consists of monetary theory, structural analysis of the money supply, the principle of «goals-tools» of economic policy and correlation and regression analysis, which allow to identify the presence of the cumulative effect of monetary policy, to determine its impact on relevant macroeconomic goals: GDP growth and inflation.

The result of the study is the application of the introduced indicators of the sensitivity of macro-policy goals to monetary policy instruments, representing a picture of the weakening of the influence of monetary policy on the growth of the Russian economy. The increasing monetization was accompanied, in particular, by a decrease in the growth rate of the Russian economy, the unfolding of a recession, the consequences of which affect the dynamics of economic development, while maintaining a tight monetary policy option – with an increase in the key interest rate. The structural analysis of the money supply for the M2 aggregate made it possible to identify those components that, with an increase, slow down growth and reduce inflation, as well as to determine the closeness of the relationship of the interest rate with the changing components of the money supply. The assessment of the cumulative effect of monetary policy on two goals of macroeconomic development – growth and inflation, and two monetary policy instruments – the M2 money supply and the key interest rate, confirmed the existence of a negative cumulative effect of the policy for the growth goal and a positive cumulative effect on the inflation rate. For two purposes at once, the positive cumulative effect of monetary policy is confirmed only for the period 2016-2018 in the interval 2001-2020. Thus, monetary policy, firstly, ensured the containment of inflation out of connection with growth, and secondly, provided different cumulative effects for different purposes – due to the different sensitivity of the target to the instruments.

The prospect of the study is seen in the creation of some kind of aggregated indicator that would allow taking into account the overall impact on the dynamics of the entire set of monetary policy measures, and not separately by goals and instruments, as presented in this study.

References:

1.       Glazyev S.Yu. A leap into the future. Russia in new technological and world economic structures. Moscow: Knizhny Mir, 2018. 768 p. (In Russ.).

2.      Glazyev S.Yu. Lessons of the next Russian revolution: the collapse of a liberal utopia and a chance for an «economic miracle». Moscow: Publishing House «Ekonomicheskaya Gazeta», 2011. 576 p. (In Russ.).

DOI: 10.33917/es-6.172.2020.20-31

The purpose of the study is to generalize the conditions that provoke the economic recession of 2020, taking into account the analysis of the pre-crisis dynamics of the Russian economy according to the parameters characterizing its innovative and technological development. The method of studying the relationships between the relevant development parameters is econometric modeling and regression analysis, which allow to identify the specific characteristics of the crisis in the innovative and technological development of the Russian economy. The analysis of the pre-crisis pattern of the movement of labor resources distracted from old industries in favor of new activities, and created specifically for new types of production. The sensitivity of the level of manufacturability to investments in old and new technologies, the influence of innovative agents on the economic dynamics in Russia are determined. The result of the study is the quantitative estimates obtained, which for the Russian economy, in comparison, for example, with other countries confirm the folding of the innovation process in its systemic dimension. Therefore, the diagnosis of the state of this sphere gives a conclusion about its crisis state. The decrease in the rate of economic growth in Russia was accompanied by a decrease in the number of innovative agents, the diversion of resources from old industries decreased, as did the creation of a new labor resource for new industries.

DOI: 10.33917/mic-6.89.2019.38-46

The article analyzes the Russian system of accounting for the decommissioning of oil fields, its compliance with IFRS standards, defines the features of financial accounting for decommissioning, proposes approaches to measuring the reserves for decommissioning of oil fields and criteria for their evaluation, provides an example of calculating the reserves for decommissioning.

By the end of 2012 it has become obvious that Russian economy began a gradual slide into stagnation.

Implemented in recent years monetary and issuing policy of the Bank of Russia artificially stifles development of the domestic economy, destroys the remnants of science intensive industries, preserves the technological backwardness and strengthens Russia’s status of the “resource colony” and the end market for transnational capital.