DOI: 10.33917/es-5.191.2023.38-53

Demographic situation largely determines the strategic prospects of our country in the context of fierce multifactorial competition between various countries of the world and their bilateral and multilateral alliances. The ar ticle examines dynamics of the Russian population trends, individual causes of male excess mor tality, the main factors for increasing the birth rate and also provides a quantitative assessment of the ef fectiveness of some of the above. To assess the consequences an agent-based demographic model of Russia was used and a sof tware package, developed jointly with researchers from China, was applied to make a long-term forecast of our country’s population.

References:

1. Putin zayavil, chto rossiyan dolzhno byt’ bol’she, i oni dolzhny byt’ zdorovy [Putin Said that there Should be More Russians, and they Should be Healthy].TASS, 2022, 9 iyunya, available at: https://tass.ru/obschestvo/14871349

2. Asel’ Gereikhanova. Vladimir Putin poruchil v 2023 godu dobit’sya rosta zarplat, rozhdaemosti i prodolzhitel’nosti zhizni [Vladimir Putin Instructed to Achieve an Increase in Wages, birth Rates and Life Expectancy in 2023]. Rossiiskaya gazeta, 2023, 29 yanvarya, available at: https://rg.ru/2023/01/29/zadachidlia-razvitiia.html

3. Demografiya [Demography]. Rosstat, available at: https://rosstat.gov.ru/folder/12781

4. Andreev E. M., Darskii L. E., Khar’kova T. L. Naselenie Sovetskogo Soyuza: 1922–1991 [Population of the Soviet Union: 1922–1991]. Moscow, Nauka, 1993.

5. Rosstat [Website], available at: https://rosstat.gov.ru

6. Makarov V. L., Il’in N. I., Bakhtizin A. R., Khabriev B. R. Natsional’naya sila stran mira: otsenka i prognoz [National Strength of the Countries in the World:

Evaluation and Forecast]. Ekonomicheskie strategii, 2022, no 6(186), pp. 38–51, DOI: https://doi.org/10.33917/es-6.186.2022.38-51

7. Vsemirnyi bank [Website], available at: https://data.worldbank.org

8. Uroven’ smertnosti: Sravnitel’naya informatsiya po stranam [Mortality Rates: Comparative Information by Country], available at: https://www.cia.gov/the-world-factbook/field/death-rate/country-comparison

9. Demografiya: Prognoz [Demographics: Forecast], available at: https://www.agents.media/demografia-prognoz

10. Makarov V. L., Nigmatulin R. I., Il’in N. I., Bakhtizin A. R., Sushko E. D., Sidorenko M.Yu. Tsifrovoi dvoinik (iskusstvennoe obshchestvo) sotsial’noekonomicheskoi

sistemy Rossii — platforma dlya eksperimentov v sfere upravleniya demograficheskimi protsessami [The Digital Twin (Artificial Society) of the Socio-Economic System of Russia is a Platform for Experiments in the Field of Managing Demographic Processes]. Ekonomicheskie strategii, 2022, no

2(182), pp. 6–19, DOI: https://doi.org/10.33917/es-2.182.2022.6-19.

11. Chislo rodivshikhsya (bez mertvorozhdennykh) za god [Number of Births (Excluding Stillbirths) per Year]. EMISS. Gosudarstvennaya statistika, available at: https://www.fedstat.ru/indicator/31606

DOI: 10.33917/es-5.191.2023.6-21

The chronicle of the situation development, which actually came very close to a global military catastrophe, only outwardly looks like a random kaleidoscope of events. Behind the chaos of events, are becoming more evident extremely strict strategic schemes for operating with global power factors in various spheres of activit y: political, military, economic, etc. The article outlines the systemic elements of an approach that considers military conflict in general and Special military operation in particular as a militarized form of struggle for power — an instrument of global economic regulation of economic activit y. This approach makes it possible to focus the key components of Russia’s necessary strategy in the context of a new round of struggle between imperialist predators for the format of systemic and structural redivision of the world that they need.

References:

1. Ageev A.I. Kholodnaya voina — 2.0: realii i perspektivy [Cold War — 2.0: Realities and Prospects]. Ekonomicheskie strategii, 2015, vol. 17, no 2(128), pp. 74–79.

2. Bakhtizin A.R., Makarov V.L., Loginov E.L., Khabriev B.R., Vu Ts., Vu Z. Gibridnye voiny v makroekonomicheskoi supersisteme XXI veka [Hybrid Wars in the Macroeconomic Supersystem of the XXI Century]. Ekonomicheskie strategii, 2023, vol. 25, no 2(188), pp. 6–23, DOI: https://doi.org/10.33917/es-2.188.2023.6–23

3. Ageev A.I., Bakhtizin A.R., Makarov V.L., Loginov E.L., Khabriev B.R. Ekonomicheskii fundament pobedy: strategicheskii prognoz ustoichivosti ekonomiki Rossii v usloviyakh sanktsionnykh atak [Economic Foundation of Victory: a Strategic Forecast for the Russian Economy Stability in the Face of Sanctions]. Ekonomicheskie strategii, 2023, vol. 25, no 3(189), pp. 6–15, DOI: 10.33917/es-3.189.2023.6-15

4. Denisov A.A., Denisova E.V. Kratkii ocherk osnov teorii upravlyaemoi konfrontatsii [Brief Outline of the Theory of Controlled Confrontation]. Informatsionnye voiny, 2014, no 1, pp. 24–33.

5. Ageev A.I., Loginov E.L. Mirovoe soobshchestvo v usloviyakh sverkhkriticheskoi bifurkatsii: Upravlenie slozhnymi organizatsionnymi i tekhnicheskimi sistemami v usloviyakh sverkhkriticheskikh situatsii: Materialy mezhdunarodnoi nauchno-prakticheskoi konferentsii [World Community in Conditions of Supercritical Bifurcation: Management of complex organizational and technical systems in conditions of supercritical situations: Proceedings of the International Scientific and Practical Conference]. Moscow, INES, 2022, pp. 9–12.

6. Ageev A.I., Loginov E.L. Novaya bol’shaya voina: khroniki khorosho zabytogo budushchego [New Large-Scale War: Chronicles of Well Forgotten Future]. Ekonomicheskie strategii, 2014, vol. 16, no 6–7(122–123), pp. 16–33.

7. Ageev A.I., Loginov E.L. Strategicheskaya predopredelennost’ spetsial’nykh voennykh operatsii v mirovoi supersisteme [Strategic Predetermination of Special Military Operations in the World Supersystem]. Ekonomicheskie strategii, 2023, vol. 25, no 4(190), no 6–19, DOI: 10.33917/es-4.190.2023.6-19

DOI: 10.33917/es-3.189.2023.6-15

Key parameters of attacks directions on the Russian economy and forecasts of the expected results, which previously have inspired confidence in Western states that political regime would inevitability fall, which stimulated the US and EU sanctions activity, were developed by a number of authoritative Western expert structures. Western strategies for collapsing the Russian economy in 2022–2023 with the help of sanctions, formed on the basis of these forecasts, did not bring the desired result. At the same time, alternative forecasts of a group of Russian scientists from the CEMI RAS and their Chinese colleagues on stability of the economies of Russia and China in the event of a friendly policy in the context of trade wars with the US and the EU, made in 2019, were fully confirmed. At the core of these forecasts there are analytical tools based on agent modeling.

References:

1. Ageev A.I., Loginov E.L. Mirovoe soobshchestvo v usloviyakh sverkhkriticheskoi bifurkatsii Upravlenie slozhnymi organizatsionnymi i tekhnicheskimi sistemami v usloviyakh sverkhkriticheskikh situatsii: Materialy mezhdunarodnoi nauchno-prakticheskoi konferentsii [World Community in Conditions of Supercritical Bifurcation: Management of Complex Organizational and Technical Systems in Conditions of Supercritical Situations: Proceedings of the international scientific and practical conference]. Moscow, INES, 2022, pp. 9–12.

2. Ageev A.I., Loginov E.L. Novaya bol’shaya voina: khroniki khorosho zabytogo budushchego [New Large-Scale War: Chronicles of Well Forgotten Future]. Ekonomicheskie strategii, 2014, vol. 16, no 6–7(122–123), pp. 16–33.

3. Makarov V.L., Vu Ts., Vu Z., Khabriev B.R., Bakhtizin A.R. Mirovye torgovye voiny: stsenarnye raschety posledstvii [World Trade Wars: Scenario Calculations of Consequences]. Vestnik Rossiiskoi akademii nauk, 2020, vol. 90, no 2, pp. 169–179.

4. Makarov V.L., Vu Ts., Vu Z., Khabriev B.R., Bakhtizin A.R. Sovremennye instrumenty otsenki posledstvii mirovykh torgovykh voin [Modern Tools for Assessing the Effects of World Trade Wars]. Vestnik Rossiiskoi akademii nauk, 2019, vol. 89, no 7, pp. 745–754.

5. Tsigas M., McDaniel C., Schropp S., Mahlstein K. Potential economic effects of sanctions on Russia: An Allied trade embargo. Voxeu.org, 2022, available at: https://voxeu.org/article/potential-economic-effects-allied-trade-embargo-russia.

6. Mahlstein K., McDaniel C., Schropp S., Tsigas M. Estimating the economic effects of sanctions on Russia: An Allied trade embargo. The World Economy, 2022, no 45, pp. 3344–3383, available at: https://doi.org/10.1111/twec.13311.

7. Bryan R., Johnson G., Sytsma T., Priebe M. Does the U.S. Economy Benefit from U.S. Alliances and Forward Military Presence? Santa Monica, CA: RAND Corporation, 2022, available at: https://www.rand.org/pubs/research_reports/RRA739-5.

8. Bolhuis A. Marijn, Jiaqian Chen, Benjamin Kett. Fragmentation in Global Trade: Accounting for Commodities. IMF Working Paper. 2023. No. WP 23/73.

DOI: 10.33917/es-2.188.2023.80-89

The basic reasons for the onset of the Time of Troubles in Russia, associated with inability of the central government to perform their functions, are identified. An important role in instability was played by external organizations, including those that demonstrated a “friendly” attitude towards Russia. Withdrawal of the Fatherland from the Time of Troubles’ instability is connected with the emergence of organizations within it that are capable of realizing the idea of the country’s selfpreservation. The author concludes that the Time of Troubles in Russia came when the three main forces of organizations — owners, managers and the staff (in this case, the “orphan people”) lost their value orientations and did not act as a common front against the interventionists.

References:

1. Volkov V.A., Kuz’min A.G. Smutnoe vremya [Time of Troubles]. Moscow, Algoritm, 2012.

2. Gaidar E. Smuty i instituty [Troubles and Institutions]. Moscow, Algoritm, 2015.

3. Denisov A.V. Smutnoe vremya. Vzglyad inzhenera [Time of Troubles. Engineer’s Perspective]. Moscow, Izd-vo Vorob’ev A.V., 2012.

4. Zinov’ev A. A. Russkaya smuta [Russian Turmoil]. Moscow, Kelvori, 1995.

5. Kurganov A.B. Lyudi Smutnogo vremeni. Istoricheskoe issledovanie [People of the Time of Troubles. Historical Research]. Moscow, AST, 2008.

6. Morozova L.E. Istoriya Rossii. Smutnoe vremya. Pravda i vymysel, svidetel’stva sovremennikov [Russian History. Time of Troubles. Truth and Fiction, Testimonials of Contemporaries]. Moscow, AST, 2011.

7. Pechenev V.A. “Smutnoe vremya” v noveishei istorii (1985–2003). Istoricheskie svidetel’stva i razmyshleniya uchastnika sobytii [“Time of Troubles” in Recent History (1985–2003). Historical Evidence and Reflections of the Events Participant]. Moscow, Norma, 2004.

8. Platonov S.F. Smutnoe vremya. Ocherk istorii vnutrennego krizisa i obshchestvennoi bor’by v Moskovskom gosudarstve XVI i XVII vv. [Time of Troubles. History Essay on the Internal Crisis and Social Struggle in the Moscow State of the XVI and XVII Centuries]. Moscow, AIRO-XXI, 2007; Smutnye vremena nachala XVII–XX stoletii i opyt ikh preodoleniya v istoricheskoi sud’be Rossii: Sb. materialov po itogam Vserossiiskoi nauchno-prakticheskoi konferentsii s mezhdunarodnym uchastiem. Vladimir, 2–3 noyabrya 2020 g. [Troubled Times at the Beginning of the 17th–20th Centuries and the Experience of Overcoming Them in the Historical Fate of Russia: Collected Materials on the Results of the All-Russian Scientific and Practical Conference with international Participation. Vladimir, November 2–3, 2020]. Vladimir, Tranzit-IKS, 2020.

9. Dvornichenko A.Yu. Smuta kak faktor rossiiskoi istorii [Time of Troubles as a Factor in Russian History]. Vestnik Sankt-Peterburgskogo un-ta. Istoriya, 2018, vol. 63, vyp. 3, pp. 679, 682–684.

10. Marchenya P.P., Razin S.Yu. “Smutovedenie” kak “gordiev uzel” rossievedeniya: ot imperii k smute, ot smuty k…? [“Study of Troubles” as a “Gordian Knot” of Russian Studies: From Empire to Troubles, from Troubles to…?]. Rossiya i sovremennyi mir, 2010, no 4, pp. 50.

DOI: 10.33917/es-1.187.2023.56-69

In the circumstances of sanctions-related economic and scientific-technical blockade, the need to build digital mechanisms for managing import substitution processes on the basis of planning and coordinating competencies, similar to the competencies that the USSR State Committee for Science and Technology had, has sharply actualized. It is proposed to use intelligent digital platforms to control the development of science and technology based on the principles of the Soviet information network OGAS and EGSVC projects. The authors of the article substantiate necessity to apply digital information and communication technologies and computing services at various levels of management for innovative agents of any form of ownership through creating and configurating multilayer information-management fields.

References:

1. Ageev A.I., Loginov E.L. Mirovoe soobshchestvo v usloviyakh sverkhkriticheskoi bifurkatsii [The World Community in the Conditions of Supercritical Bifurcation]. Upravlenie slozhnymi organizatsionnymi i tekhnicheskimi sistemami v usloviyakh sverkhkriticheskikh situatsii: Materialy mezhdunarodnoi nauchno-prakticheskoi konferentsii. Moskva, MNIIPU, 21–22 aprelya 2022 g. [Management of Complex Organizational and Technical Systems in Conditions of Supercritical Situations: Proceedings of the International Scientific and Practical Conference. Moscow, MNIIPU, April 21–22, 2022]. Moscow, INES, 2022, pp. 9–12.

2. Ageev A.I., Loginov E.L. Rossiya v novoi ekonomicheskoi real’nosti [Russia in a New Economic Reality]. Moscow, Institut ekonomicheskikh strategii, Assotsiatsiya “Analitika”, 2016, 460 p.

3. Grabchak E.P. Importozameshchenie v energetike Rossii v usloviyakh sanktsii [Import Substitution in the Russian Energy Sector in the Context of Sanctions]. Upravlenie slozhnymi organizatsionnymi i tekhnicheskimi sistemami v usloviyakh sverkhkriticheskikh situatsii: Materialy mezhdunarodnoi nauchno-prakticheskoi konferentsii. Moskva, MNIIPU, 21–22 aprelya 2022 g. [Management of complex organizational and technical systems in conditions of supercritical situations: Proceedings of the international scientific and practical conference. Moscow, MNIIPU, April 21–22, 2022]. Moscow, MNIIPU, 2022, pp. 16–18.

4. Grabchak E.P., Loginov E.L., Chinaliev V.U., Epishkin I.I. Upravlenie razvitiem slozhnykh nauchno-tekhnicheskikh kompleksov na osnove intellektual’nykh tsifrovykh platform (realizatsiya kompetentsii Goskomiteta SSSR po nauke i tekhnike v usloviyakh tsifrovoi ekonomiki) [Managing the Development of Complex Scientific-technical Systems Based on Intelligent Digital Platforms (Implementation of the Competencies of the USSR State Committee for Science and Technology in Conditions of Digital Economy)]. Moscow, INES, 2023, 504 p.

5. Chinaliev V.U. Razvitie politiki importozameshcheniya v promyshlennosti Rossii [Developing Import Substitution Policy in the Russian industry]. Upravlenie slozhnymi organizatsionnymi i tekhnicheskimi sistemami v usloviyakh sverkhkriticheskikh situatsii: Materialy mezhdunarodnoi nauchno-prakticheskoi konferentsii. Moskva, MNIIPU, 21–22 aprelya 2022 g. [Management of Complex Organizational and Technical Systems in Conditions of Supercritical Situations: Proceedings of the International Scientific and Practical Conference. Moscow, MNIIPU, April 21–22, 2022]. Moscow, MNIIPU, 2022.S. 50–53.

DOI: 10.33917/es-1.187.2023.39-45

The article provides a modern answer to Adam Smith’s classic question on how exactly the vital assets of peoples are created in the states. It is shown that vital assets in the states are originally created through extraction (for a human), production (for a human) and imputation (into a human), which are three qualitatively different main types of vital creativity.

This results in identification of three main patterns of life: extractive, productive and imputative. It is argued that with any basic form of life creativity, creation of a changing variety of life assets in the states is carried out mainly due to inclusion of a larger mental component in all creative chains.

However, creation of a larger mental capacity can occur only through the concomitant and inevitable expenditure of both the same energy and the same information. Inevitable need for this mentioned expenditure (consumption) is the creative “damnation” of mankind.

Strategies for Russia’s exit from modern interstate exploitation are described. It is а proved that strategically and epochally the best way for Russia to get out of this system of exploitation is to recreate a sovereign, full-fledged three-pattern vitality, where combination of the main life patterns satisfies the life code that is historically inherent in Russia.

It is shown that due to the presence of the mentioned “damnation”, modern Russia has got an energy “lever” that is sufficient (if used correctly) to create its own anti-segregation macro-regional cooperants without pattern-based segregation.

References:

1. Zakharov V.K. Nomologiya. Mir i Rossiya. Kto vinovat? i Chto delat’? [Nomology. World and Russia. Who is guilty? and What to do?]. Moscow, Rodina, 2022, 668 p.

2. Anilionis G.P., Zotova N.A. Global’nyi mir: edinyi i razdelennyi. Evolyutsiya teorii globalizatsii [Global World: United and Divided. Evolution of Globalization Theories]. Moscow, Mezhdunarodnye otnosheniya, 2005, 676 p.

3. Bolduin R. Velikaya konvergentsiya. Informatsionnye tekhnologii i novaya globalizatsiya [Great Convergence. Information Technology and New Globalization]. Moscow, Delo, 2018, 415 p.

4. Dobren’kov V.I. Globalizatsiya. Sushchnost’, proyavleniya i sotsial’nye posledstviya [Globalization. Essence, Manifestations and Social Consequences]. Moscow, Akademicheskii proekt, 2018. 636 s.

5. Porter M.E. Mezhdunarodnaya konkurentsiya. Konkurentnye preimushchestva stran [International Competition. Competitive Advantages of Countries]. Moscow, Al’pina Pablisher, 2016, 947 p.

6. Men’shikov S.M. Anatomiya rossiiskogo kapitalizma [Anatomy of Russian Capitalism]. Moscow, Mezhdunarodnye otnosheniya, 2004, 432 p.

7. Ryazanov V.T. (Ne)Real’nyi kapitalizm. Politekonomiya krizisa i ego posledstvii dlya mirovogo khozyaistva i Rossii [(Un) Real Capitalism. Political Economy of the Crisis and of Its Consequences for the World Economy and Russia]. Moscow, Ekonomika, 2016, 695 p.

8. Fedorenko N.P. Rossiya na rubezhe vekov [Russia at the Turn of the Century]. Moscow, Ekonomika, 2003, 727 p.

DOI: https://doi.org/10.33917/es-5.185.2022.114-119

The article proposes an approach to the problem of the USSR collapse within the framework of interdisciplinary direction of megahistory and global evolution, where the USSR collapse itself turned up to be a bifurcation of the scale invariance of the producing economy history. Its final world cycle gives a picture of periods that completely coincides with the written history of Ancient Russia — the Russian Empire — the USSR.

References:

1. Kuzyk B.N., Ageev A.I., Dobrocheev O.V., Kuroedov B.V., Myasoedov B.A. Rossiya v prostranstve i vremeni (istoriya budushchego) [Russia in Space and Time (History of the Future)]. Moscow, INES, 2004, 336 p.

2. Kul’pin E.S. Geneticheskie kody tsivilizatsii. Sotsioestestvennaya istoriya. Genezis krizisov prirody i obshchestva v Rossii [Genetic Codes of Civilizations. Socionatural History. Genesis of Crises of Nature and Society in Russia]. Vyp. 4. Moscow, Moskovskii litsei, 1995, pp. 32–35.

3. Kul’pin E.S. Sotsioestestvennaya istoriya. Ot metoda — k teorii, ot teorii — k praktike [Socionatural History. From Method to Theory, From Theory to Practice]. Volgograd, Uchitel’, 2014.

4. Gridchin I.V. Sotsioestestvennaya istoriya kak megatsikl istorii chelovechestva [Socionatural History as a Megacycle of Human History]. Istoriya i sovremennost’, 2017, no 1, pp. 177–183.

5. Gridchin I.V. Troichnyi ritm faz sotsial’noi megaistorii. Ego prikladnoe znachenie dlya sistemnogo analiza i prognozirovaniya. Evolyutsiya. Patterny evolyutsii [The Ternary Rhythm of the Phases of Social Megahistory. Its Applied Significance for System Analysis and Forecasting. Evolution. Evolution Patterns]. Volgograd, Uchitel’, 2018, pp. 139–156.

6. Kul’pin E.S. Zolotaya Orda: sud’by pokolenii [Golden Horde: Destinies of Generations]. Vyp. XXVIII. Moscow, INSAN, 2006. (Seriya: Sotsioestestvennaya istoriya. Genezis krizisov prirody i obshchestva v Rossii.)

7. Bzhezinskii Z. Soedinennye Shtaty prevyshe vsego. Mezhdunarodnye posledstviya 1989 goda [The United States Above All. International Consequences of 1989]. Nezavisimaya gazeta, 1999, November 24.

8. Bulkin V.A., Dubov I.V., Lebedev G.S. Arkheologicheskie pamyatniki Drevnei Rusi IX–XI vekov [Archaeological Sites of Ancient Russia of the 9th–11th Centuries]. Leningrad, LGU, 1978.

9. Gridchin I.V. Raspad SSSR [Collapse of the USSR]. Priroda i chelovek. XXI vek, 2017, no 4, pp. 19–22.

10. Slavkina M.V. Triumf i tragediya. Razvitie neftegazovogo kompleksa SSSR v 1960–1980-e gody [Triumph and Tragedy. Development of the Oil and Gas Complex of the USSR in the 1960s–1980s]. Moscow, MAKS-Press, 2002.

DOI: https://doi.org/10.33917/es-5.185.2022.60-65

Earth and space are fractal partners of the world system, whose structural, functional properties and characteristics are similar. They are equally subject to general laws of vital functions and cyclic development, mutual transformation of substance, energy and information, in the process of interaction and evolution generating common space-time categories, common material, biophysical and noospheric formations.

References:

1. Fursa E.Ya. Mirozdanie — mir voln, rezonansov i… nichego bolee [Universe is a World of Waves, Resonances and … Nothing More]. Minsk, UniversalPress, 2007, 480 p.

2. Tsiolkovskii K.E. Put’ k luchistomu Chelovechestvu [Path to Radiant Humanity]. Khimiya i zhizn’, 1977, no 1.

3. Chizhevskii A.L. Zemlya i Kosmos. Zemnoe echo kosmicheskikh bur’ [Earth and Space. Terrestrial Echo of Space Storms]. Moscow, Akademicheskii proekt, 2015, 272 p.

4. Bushuev V.V., Kopylov I.P. Energokosmizm Rossii [Energy Cosmism of Russia]. Moscow, Energiya, 2003, 140 p.

5. Bushuev V.V. Energiya i sud’ba Rossii [Energy and the Fate of Russia]. Moscow, Energiya, 2014, 292 p.

6. Bushuev V.V., Klepach A.N., Pervukhin V.V. Tsikly rossiiskoi (vostochno-evraziiskoi) tsivilizatsii [Cycles of Russian (East Eurasian) Civilization]. Moscow, Energiya, 2020, 102 p.

7. Tulupov A.V. Rod Severa. Russkie giperboreitsy [Genus of the North. Russian Hyperboreans]. Moscow, Algoritm, 2013, 528 p.

8. Dobrocheev O.V. Mekhanika ochen’ bol’shikh sistem prirody, zhizni i razuma [Mechanics of Very Large Systems of Nature, Life and Mind]. Moscow, TEIS, 2019.

9. Ivanov Yu.N. Ritmodinamika [Rhythmodynamics]. Moscow, Energiya, 2007, 221 p.

10. Bushuev V.V. Osnovy energologii [Energology Fundamentals]. Moscow, Energiya, 2020.

11. Kaznacheev V.P. Mysli o budushchem. Intellekt, golograficheskaya Vselennaya Kozyreva [Thoughts about the Future. Intelligence, Kozyrev’s Holographic Universe]. Novosibirsk, Sibirskoe nauchnoe izdatel’stvo, 2008, 192 p.

12. Chizhevskii A.L. Kosmicheskii pul’s zhizni [Cosmic Pulse of Life]. Moscow, Mysl’, 1995, 766 p.

13. Klepach A.N., Dobrocheev O.V. Ansambl’ ekonomicheskikh voln ili turbulentnaya gipoteza ekonomiki [Ensemble of Economic Waves or Turbulent Hypothesis of the Economy]. Filosofiya khozyaistva, 2015, no 6, pp. 180–191.

14. Balakshin O.B. Garmoniya samorazvitiya v prirode i obshchestve: podobie i analogii [Harmony of Self-development in Nature and Society: Similarities and Analogies]. Moscow, URSS; Izd-vo LKI, 2008, 341 p.

DOI: https://doi.org/10.33917/es-4.184.2022.56-69

The world has been scared by the collapse of the dollar many times. So far, fears of a global economic collapse, associated with the fate of the dollar, have been greatly exaggerated. However, there are no significant guarantees that this will not happen under certain conditions. Variants of the Atlantic-planned collapse of the dollar with its replacement by a synthetic financial instrument o r digital currency, somehow similar to bitcoin, are possible. COVID-19 has further revealed this problem. Russia needs to abandon its illusions and to be ready to ensure the economic stability of political regime in a special period as manifestation of the world monetary and economic war of all against all at a certain stage of the catastrophe, while waiting for the main actors to agree on joint actions. At the same time, among our geopolitical competing partners, there are a lot of those who want by all means to solve their economic and other problems at the expense of Russia. Therefore,  macroeconomic measures that Russia will have to take in case of a global dollar collapse are very likely to be more severe than the scenario that the authors formulated in this article.

Источники:

1. Makarov V.L., Bakhtizin A.R., Il’in N.I., Sushko E.D. Natsional’naya bezopasnost’ Rossii [National Security of Russia]. Ekonomicheskie strategii, 2020, no 5, pp. 6–23, available at: DOI: 10.33917/es-5.171.2020.6-23.

2. Ageev A.I., Loginov E.L. Coronavirus superstrategy: mirovaya proektsiya finansovoi modeli catastrophe just-in-time dlya vykhoda iz krizisa na novuyu geoekonomicheskuyu normal’nost’ [Coronavirus Superstrategy: Global Projection of the “Just-in-time Catastrophe’s” Financial Model for Overcoming the Crisis and Entering into a New Geo-Economic Normality]. Ekonomicheskie strategii, 2020, no 4, pp. 6–19, available at: DOI: 10.33917/es-4.170.2020.6-19.

3. Na poroge monetarnoi kul’minatsii [On the Brink of a Monetary Climax]. Livejournal, Spydell, 2021, August, 25, available at: https://spydell.livejournal.com/699002.html.

4. Fiskal’nyi ad [Fiscal Hell]. Livejournal, Spydell, 2021, April, 21, available at: https://spydell.livejournal.com/698446.html.

5. Ageev A.I., Loginov E.L. New Deal – 2008 — “novaya sdacha”. Bludnye ucheniki Franklina Ruzvel’ta [“New Deal” – 2008. Lost Followers of Franklin Roosevelt]. Ekonomicheskie strategii, 2009, no 2, pp. 30–37

6. Ageev A.I., Loginov E.L. Formirovanie novoi modeli valyutno-finansovoi politiki pri upravlenii natsional’nymi zolotovalyutnymi rezervami Rossii [Forming a New Model of Monetary Policy while Managing the National Foreign Exchange Reserves of Russia]. Ekonomicheskie strategii, 2016,

no 3, no 8–15.

7. Ageev A.I., Loginov E.L. Institutsional’nye mekhanizmy snizheniya mul’tifaktornykh riskov dlya valyutno-finansovoi sistemy Rossii i EAES v usloviyakh nelineinoi ekonomicheskoi dinamiki [Institutional Mechanisms for Reducing Multifactor Risks for Monetary-financial System of Russia and the EAEU in the Context of Nonlinear Economic Dynamics]. Monografiya. Moscow, Institut ekonomicheskikh strategii, 2017.

DOI: https://doi.org/10.33917/es-1.181.2022.126-137

The studies on the history of managerial thought do not fully cover the development of management schools in Russia in the 20th century and don’t mention many scientists, who were at the origins of scientific schools, and organizations within which they emerged. Hypotheses are put forward about how researchers in the last 30 years have made an attempt to study the schools of managerial thought in the 20th century in various organizations, especially universities. Narrative, comparative and historical research methods are used. The author describes the main schools of management in Russia in the 20th century, their origins, evolution, inspirers and leaders, as well as their main scientific works. The question of scientific schools of the two greatest mega-projects, successfully implemented in the USSR – nuclear and space project, remains unexplored. It is concluded that in Russia during the twentieth century. Management thought was developing, but it is currently extremely difficult to describe a holistic picture of the evolution of scientific management schools.

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