Socio-economic Development of Russia in the First Quarter of 2024 — Economic Growth is Accelerating

DOI: 10.33917/es-3.195.2024.120-125

The article dwells on the change in the market index of “Economic Strategies” (MIES) for the first quarter of 2024. The contribution of demand and supply indicators to the KIES is assessed. Analysis of industrial production is carried out.

References:

1. Sotsial’no-ekonomicheskoe polozhenie Rossii. Yanvar’ — mart 2024 god: Doklad [Socio-Economic Situation in Russia. January – March 2024: Report]. Federal’naya sluzhba gosudarstvennoy statistiki, available at: https://rosstat.gov.ru/storage/mediabank/osn-03-2024.pdf

2. Stsenarnye usloviya funktsionirovaniya ekonomiki Rossiyskoy Federatsii, osnovnye parametry prognoza sotsial’no-ekonomicheskogo razvitiya Rossiyskoy Federatsii i prognoziruemye izmeneniya tsen (tarifov) na tovary, uslugi khozyaystvuyushchikh sub”ektov, osushchestvlyayushchikh reguliruemye vidy deyatel’nosti v infrastrukturnom sektore, na 2025 god i na planovyy period 2026 i 2027 godov [Scenario Conditions for Functioning of the Economy of the Russian Federation, the Main Parameters of the Forecast of Socio-Economic Development of the Russian Federation and Projected Changes in Prices (Tariffs) for Goods and Services of Business Entities Carrying out Regulated Activities in the Infrastructure Sector for 2025 and for the Planning Period of 2026 and 2027]. Ministerstvo ekonomicheskogo razvitiya RF, available at: https://economy.gov.ru/material/directions/makroec/prognozy_socialno_ekonomicheskogo_razvitiya/scenarnye_usloviya_funkcionirovaniya_ekonomiki_rf_osnovnye_parametry_prognoza_socialno_ekonomicheskogo_razvitiya_rf_na_2025_god_i_na_planovyy_period_2026_i_2027_godovhtml

3. Poslanie Prezidenta Rossiyskoy Federatsii Federal’nomu sobraniyu Rossiyskoy Federatsii 29 fevralya 2024 goda [Address of the President of the Russian Federation to the Federal Assembly of the Russian Federation on February 29, 2024]. Ofitsial’nyy sayt Prezidenta RF, available at: http://kremlin.ru/events/president/news/73585

4. Ukaz Prezidenta Rossiyskoy Federatsii ot 7 maya 2024 g. “O natsional’nykh tselyakh razvitiya Rossiyskoy Federatsii na period do 2030 goda i na perspektivu do 2036 goda” [Decree of the President of the Russian Federation of May 7, 2024 “On the National Development Goals of the Russian Federation for the Period until 2030 and for the Future up to 2036”]. Ofitsial’nyy sayt Prezidenta RF, available at: http://kremlin.ru/events/president/news/73986

5. Frenkel’ A.A., Tikhomirov B.I., Surkov A.A. 2023 god: ukreplenie gosudarstvennogo suvereniteta i ustoychivosti strategicheskogo razvitiya Rossii v usloviyakh turbulentnosti [2023: Strengthening the State Sovereignty and Sustainability of Russia’s Strategic Development in Conditions of Turbulence].

Ekonomicheskie strategii, 2024, no 1(193), pp. 70–75, DOI: https://doi.org/10.33917/es-1.193.2024.70-75

2023: Strengthening the State Sovereignty and Sustainability of Russia’s Strategic Development in Conditions of Turbulence

DOI: 10.33917/es-1.193.2024.70-75

The article dwells on the changes in the Market Index of “Economic Strategies” (MIES) for eleven months of 2023.

Contribution of demand and supply indicators to MIES is assessed. Analysis of industrial production is carried out.

References:

1. Itogi goda s Vladimirom Putinym: pryamaya liniya s grazhdanami i bol’shaya press-konferentsiya s predstavitelyami SMI 14 dekabrya 2023 goda [Results of the Year with Vladimir Putin: Direct Line with Citizens and a Large Press Conference with Media Representatives on December 14, 2023]. Ofitsial’nyy sayt Prezidenta RF, available at: http://kremlin.ru/events/president/news/7299

2. Sotsial’no-ekonomicheskoe polozhenie Rossii v yanvare — noyabre 2023 goda: Doklad [Socio-economic Situation in Russia in January — November 2023: Report]. Federal’naya sluzhba gosudarstvennoy statistiki, available at: https://rosstat.gov.ru/storage/mediabank/osn-11-2023.pdf

3. Frenkel’ A.A., Tikhomirov B.I., Surkov A.A. Itogi strategicheskogo razvitiya Rossii v yanvare — aprele 2023 goda — luchshe pessimistichnykh prognozov [Outcomes of Russia’s Strategic Development in January-April 2023 are Better than Pessimistic Forecasts]. Ekonomicheskie strategii, 2023, no 4, pp. 86–91, DOI: 10.33917/es-4.190.2023.86-91

4. Obrashchenie Prezidenta RF V.V. Putina v svyazi s predsedatel’stvom RF v Ob”edinenii BRIKS [Address by the President of the Russian Federation V.V. Putin in Connection with the Russian Federation’s Chairmanship of the BRICS Association]. Ofitsial’nyy sayt Prezidenta RF, available at: http://kremlin.ru/events/president/news/73202

5. Kontseptsiya predsedatel’stva RF v Sodruzhestve Nezavisimykh Gosudarstv v 2024 godu [Concept of the Russian Federation’s Chairmanship of the Commonwealth of Independent States in 2024]. Ofitsial’nyy sayt Prezidenta RF, available at: http://kremlin.ru/events/president/news/73203

Outcomes of Russia’s strategic development in January-April 2023 are better than pessimistic forecasts

DOI: 10.33917/es-4.190.2023.86-91

The author dwells on the change in the market index of “Economic Strategies” (MIES) for the first four months of 2023.

Contribution of supply and demand indicators to the MIES is assessed. Analysis of industrial production is carried out.

References:

1. Sotsial’no-ekonomicheskoe polozhenie Rossii v yanvare — mae 2023 goda: Doklad [Socio-Economic Situation in Russia in January-May 2023: Report]. Federal’naya sluzhba gosudarstvennoi statistiki, available at: https://rosstat.gov.ru/storage/mediabank/osn-05-2023.pdf.

2. Sotsial’no-ekonomicheskoe polozhenie Rossii v yanvare — aprele 2022 goda: Doklad [Socio-Economic Situation in Russia in January-April 2022: Report]. Federal’naya sluzhba gosudarstvennoi statistiki, available at: https://rosstat.gov.ru/storage/mediabank/osn-01-2023.pdf.

3. Frenkel’ A.A., Tikhomirov B.I., Surkov A.A. “Nepredskazuemye” itogi 2022 goda i potentsial’nye ugrozy strategicheskomu razvitiyu Rossii v tekushchem godu [“Unpredictable” Results of 2022 and Potential Threats to Russia’s Strategic Development in the Current Year]. Ekonomicheskie strategii, 2023, no 2(188), pp. 44–49, DOI: 10.33917/es-2.188.2023.44-49.

4. Informatsiya o plenarnom zasedanii XXVI Peterburgskogo mezhdunarodnogo ekonomicheskogo foruma 16 iyunya 2023 g. [Information on the plenary meeting of the XXVI St. Petersburg International Economic Forum on June 16, 2023]. Ofitsial’nyi sait Prezidenta R, available at: http://kremlin.ru/events/president/news/71445.ru/events/president/news/70565.

“Unpredictable” Results of 2022 and Potential Threats to Russia’s Strategic Development in the Current Year

DOI: 10.33917/es-2.188.2023.44-49

The article addresses the change in the market index of “Economic Strategies” (MIES) for 2022. Contribution of the supply and demand indicators to the KIES is assessed. Dynamics of industrial production is analyzed.

References:

1. Poslanie Prezidenta Rossiiskoi Federatsii Federal’nomu sobraniyu Rossiiskoi Federatsii ot 21 fevralya 2023 g. [Address of the President of the Russian Federation to the Federal Assembly of the Russian Federation of February 21, 2023]. Ofitsial’nyi sait Prezidenta RF, available at: http://kremlin.ru/events/president/news/70565.

2. Otsenka chislennosti postoyannogo naseleniya na 1 yanvarya 2023 g. i v srednem za 2022 g. i komponenty ee izmeneniya (s uchetom itogov Vserossiiskoi perepisi naseleniya 2020 g.) [Estimated Resident Population as of January 1, 2023 and on Average for 2022 and Components of its Change (Against Results of the 2020 All-Russian Population Census)]. Federal’naya sluzhba gosudarstvennoi statistiki, available at: https://rosstat.gov.ru/folder/12781.

3. Sotsial’no-ekonomicheskoe polozhenie Rossii v yanvare — dekabre 2022 goda: Doklad [Socio-Economic Situation in Russia in January-December 2022: Report]. Federal’naya sluzhba gosudarstvennoi statistiki, available at: https://rosstat.gov.ru/storage/mediabank/osn-12-2022.pdf.

4. Sotsial’no-ekonomicheskoe polozhenie Rossii v yanvare 2023 goda: Doklad [Socio-Economic Situation in Russia in January 2023: Report]. Federal’naya sluzhba gosudarstvennoi statistiki, available at: https://rosstat.gov.ru/storage/mediabank/osn-01-2023.pdf.

5. Frenkel’ A.A., Tikhomirov B.I., Surkov A.A. Itogi razvitiya mobilizatsionnoi ekonomiki Rossii v yanvare — sentyabre 2022 g.: bor’ba za gosudarstvennyi suverenitet [Results of the Development of the Mobilization Economy of Russia in January — September 2022: the Struggle for State Sovereignty].

Ekonomicheskie strategii, 2022, no 6(186), pp. 30–35, DOI: 10.33917/es-6.186.2022.30-35.

6. Informatsiya ob uchastii Prezidenta RF v rabote ezhegodnogo s”ezda Rossiiskogo soyuza promyshlennikov i predprinimatelei (RSPP) 16 marta 2023 g. [Information on Participation of the President of the Russian Federation in the Annual Congress of the Russian Union of Industrialists and Entrepreneurs (RSPP) on March 16, 2023]. Ofitsial’nyi sait Prezidenta RF, available at: http://kremlin.ru/events/president/news/70688.

Results of the Development of the Mobilization Economy of Russia in January — September 2022: the Struggle for State Sovereignty

DOI: https://doi.org/10.33917/es-6.186.2022.30-35

Changing of a conjuncture index of “Economic strategy” (CIES) for nine months of 2020 is considered. The contribution of indicators of supply and demand in CIES is estimated. The analysis of industrial production is carried out.

References:

1. Sotsial’no-ekonomicheskoe polozhenie Rossii v yanvare — sentyabre 2022 goda [Socio-economic Situation in Russia in January — September 2022]. Federal’naya sluzhba gosudarstvennoi statistiki, available at: https://rosstat.gov.ru/storage/mediabank/osn-09-2022.pdf.

2. Frenkel’ A.A., Tikhomirov B.I., Surkov A.A. Yanvar’ — mai 2022 goda: Rossiya v usloviyakh tormozheniya sotsial’no-ekonomicheskogo razvitiya [2022, January — May: Russia in the Context of Slowing Down Socio-economic Development]. Ekonomicheskie strategii, 2022, vol. 24, no 4, pp. 90–95, DOI: https://doi.org/10.33917/es-4.184.2022.90-95.

3. Informatsiya o soveshchanii Prezidenta RF s chlenami Pravitel’stva RF 16 noyabrya 2022 g. v rezhime videokonferentsii [Information on the Meeting of the President of the Russian Federation with Members of the RF Government on November 16, 2022 Via Videoconference]. Ofitsial’nyi sait Prezidenta RF, available at: http://kremlin.ru/events/president/news/69847.

4. Prognoz sotsial’no-ekonomicheskogo razvitiya Rossiiskoi Federatsii na 2023 god i na planovyi period 2024 i 2025 godov [Forecast of the Socio-economic Development of the Russian Federation for 2023 and for the Scheduled Period of 2024 and 2025]. Ministerstvo ekonomicheskogo razvitiya RF, 2022, 28 sentyabrya, available at: https://economy.gov.ru/material/file/ea2fd3ce38f2e28d51c312acf2be0917/prognoz_socialno_ekonom_razvitiya_rf_2023-2025.pdf.

5. Informatsiya o Plenarnom zasedanii Peterburgskogo mezhdunarodnogo ekonomicheskogo foruma s uchastiem Prezidenta RF 17 iyunya 2022 g. [Information on the Plenary Meeting of the St. Petersburg International Economic Forum with Participation of the President of the Russian Federation on June 17, 2022]. Ofitsial’nyi sait Prezidenta RF, available at: kremlin.ru/events/president/news/68669.

Formation of the Common EAEU Market of Oil and Oil products: the Basis of the Union Stability Island in a Stormy World Ocean of Global Speculations

#5-6. Five Scenarios for a Century
Formation of the Common EAEU Market of Oil and Oil products: the Basis of the Union Stability Island in a Stormy World Ocean of Global Speculations

Prices slump in the world oil markets in the second half of 2014 significantly damaged Russian economy. It became clear that something should be done. The article formulates the main directions and organizational model of forming the system of the EAEU oil and oil products markets. In fact, given the importance of budget revenues and corporate income from the crude oil and oil products sales (including relationship with the national currency exchange rate), it is a question of ensuring national security of our friendly countries through the joint regulation of the union oil markets by the states — the EAEU members. The EAEU system of oil and oil products markets (in the short term, the common EAEU market of oil and oil products) — is not only a mechanism of a certain commodities turnover management, but also a tool supporting the national currency exchange rate, the volume of gold and currency reserves, social programs realization and, therefore, a guarantee of their sustainability development.

Strategic Designing of World Commodity Markets: Lessons of Oil Prices Collapse for Russia

#2. Liberal Indolence Inertia
Strategic Designing of World Commodity Markets: Lessons of Oil Prices Collapse for Russia

Operational result of the strategy being executed by political-economic US clans, which brought to power the current US President Barack Obama and keep under control the majority of European countries political leaders, influence the world economy future and the Russian economy in 2015–2016, is manipulative handling of world oil prices. This strategy is designed to create new economic and political balance of powers in the global arena through trying to expropriate the accumulated financial-economic resources of a number of oil-exporting countries and to focus the short- and medium-term trend of stimulating antirecessionary economic development of the West developed countries, based on increasing natural and industrial resources exploitation, especially Russia, on nonequivalent economic compensation for supplied energy resources. At the same time there is an attempt to unhinge” those political regimes, including Russia, which the West doesn’t like. Russia should draw up adequate conclusions from the current situation, they should form the basis for the national economic sovereignty policy in the ХХI century.