DOI: https://doi.org/10.33917/es-3.183.2022.26-37

In this paper, an attempt is made to develop a mathematical model of population growth, based on socio-economic factors of the development of the countries’ community, as well as population migration. The author presents intermediate results of his review where he studies economic community, characterized by a very uneven development of regions. Mathematical model is proposed in which a conditional “center” and “periphery” (“global city” and “world village”) are distinguished. From the analysis of the existing socio-economic conditions of development it follows that “periphery” traditionally acts as a demographic donor for the “center”. Examples of such systems include, in particular, relations of the EU-Baltic republics, the EU-Ukraine, and Russia–EAEU countries. As an explanatory principle, it is proposed to use the concept of “institutional trap”. From the mathematical model point of view, this means rigidly fixed coefficients of connection between the system elements implementing one-way connection (toward the “center”). Possible mechanisms, influencing the dynamics of the system through adopting appropriate managerial decisions, are discussed. Obtained results prove the importance of adequate mathematical models for optimizing the strategic management of society.

Источники:

1. Ukaz Prezidenta RF ot 1 dekabrya 2016 g. N 642 “O Strategii nauchno-tekhnologicheskogo razvitiya Rossiiskoi Federatsii” [Executive Order of the President of the Russian Federation dated December 1, 2016 No. 642 “On the Strategy for Scientific and Technological Development of the Russian Federation”]. Ofitsial’nyi sait Prezidenta RF, available at: http://www.kremlin.ru/acts/bank/41449.

2. Complex Systems and Society — Modeling and Simulation. Springer, 2013, available at:  https://link.springer.com/book/10.1007/978-1-4614-7242-1.

3. Solozhentsev E.D. Tsifrovoe upravlenie gosudarstvom i ekonomikoi [Digital Management of the State and Economy]. Upravlenie i planirovanie v ekonomike, 2018, no 1(17), pp. 136–153.

4. Federal’nyi zakon ot 28 iyunya 2014 g. N 172-FZ “O strategicheskom planirovanii v Rossiiskoi Federatsii” [Federal Law of June 28, 2014 No. 172-FZ “On Strategic Planning in the Russian Federation”]. Ofitsial’nyi sait Prezidenta RF, available at: http://www.kremlin.ru/acts/bank/38630.

5. Eberlin M. Foresight: How the Chemistry of Life Reveals Planning and Purpose. Discovery Institute, 2019.

6. Gaponenko N.V. Forsait. Teoriya. Metodologiya. Opyt [Foresight. Theory. Methodology. Experience]. Monografiya. Moscow, Yuniti — Danab, 2008, 239 p.

7. Unido Technology Foresight Manual. United Nations Industrial Development Organization, Vienna, 2005, vol. 1, p. 8.

8. Pereslegin S.B. Budushchee kak proekt: krizis futurologii [The Future as a Project: Crisis of Futurology]. Intellekt, voobrazhenie, intuitsiya: razmyshleniya o gorizontakh soznaniya (metafizicheskii i psikhologicheskii opyt). Saint-Petersburg, 2001, no 10.

DOI: https://doi.org/10.33917/es-6.180.2021.20-29

Demographic dynamics becomes crucially important for successful scenario of the future for both Eurasian integration and each EAEU member state. The “pandemic crisis” caused an increase in excess mortality, reduced social well-being and created serious legal and managerial conflicts. Within the EAEU new barriers to mobility and migration have emerged and social tension has increased. In the existing realities the current supranational solutions are insufficient, they are poorly focused on achieving the demographic security of the EAEU member states. Coordinated actions are needed to significantly improve the demographic situation in the EAEU.

DOI: 10.33917/es-7.165.2019.58-65

The sociodemographic trends presented in the article show that global migration is becoming a qualitatively new challenge. From principally humanitarian category it’s turning into a factor of global economic and technological competitiveness

In conditions of the world economy turbulence and coherence and under unprecedented sanctions pressure on the Russian economy, it becomes necessary to analyze the phenomena that caused the crisis processes affecting all spheres of life. Crisis processes — reduction of the population’s incomes, migration processes, in particular in Primorsky Krai, low provision of the population with housing — require new approaches to management. The example of the Far East region show the socio-economic trends. National projects, local programs and subprogrammes represent the system of effective mechanisms and tools for improving the social situation. Recently, an improvement in the moral and psychological climate of the Vladivostok residents is noted in connection with constructing bridges across the Golden Horn Bay and to Russky Island, due to reconstruction of roads, construction of an international airport, the campus construction on Russky Island, creation of the advanced development territory “Russky Island” and the Free port of Vladivostok.

The present article analyzes demographic situation in Moscow. It focuses on such topical demographic problems of the city population as migration, birth rate, marriage, length of life, population aging. The author considers the problem of low birth rate as one of the key ones in demographic development of Moscow, without solution of which in many respects it is impossible to cope with the other demographic problems of the capital, such as depopulation of the indigenous population, deformation of the population age structure, reduction of the traditional marriage value. The article presents statistical data characterizing demographic processes in Moscow, it identifies the main trends, evaluates the consequences.

Convergence of births rate and mortality in recent years has allowed Russia to pass on to the process of increasing the country’s population.

The main reason of the health care crisis is that federal government has actually withdrawn from the responsibility for population health care, shifting it onto regions and municipalities, which do not have sufficient funds for it.