DOI: 10.33917/es-5.197.2024.50-55

The article dwells on some current aspects of foreign direct investment (FDI) migration in Russia and abroad. The aim of the study is an attempt to theoretically reassess the role of monetary and credit mechanisms of FDI. The article provides information on the trends and pressing development problems of Russian FDI exports into the countries of Eurasian region and BRICS. According to the research, restrictive monetary policy in Russia is a significant obstacle to economic growth, foreign economic relations and FDI exports. Many economic indicators of the Russian Federation are negatively affected by the high key rate of the Bank of Russia. However, due to monopolistic structure of the Russian economy and many other factors, the restrictive monetary policy of the Central Bank of the Russian Federation often causes not only suppression of inflation and the increase in the production competitiveness, but excessive enrichment of a number of companies, banks and individuals at the expense of the economy as a whole. In the long term, in order to stimulate foreign direct investment, it seems feasible for the Bank of Russia to gradually shift from a restrictive monetary policy to a stimulating one, including for the purpose of optimal development of Russian FDI exports into the countries of the Eurasian region and BRICS.

References:

1. UNCTAD. World Investment Report. 2023. New York, United Nations, available at: https://unctad.org/system/files/official-document/wir2023_keymessages_en.pdfRRR

2. IMF. World Economic Outlook. Washington, DC. April, 2024, available at: https://www.imf.org/en/Publications/WEO/Issues/2024/04/16/world-economicoutlook-april-2024

3. Tatuzov V. Contemporary global economic crisis: Some conclusions for Russia and BRICS (taking into account Kondratieff long waves). BRICS Journal of Economics, 2020, no 1, pp. 25–40, available at: https://doi.org/10.38050/2712-7508-2020-8

4. Stiglitz J., Regmi I. The Causes and Responses to Today’s Inflation. Roosevelt Institute, 2022, available at: https://rooseveltinstitute.org/wp-content/ uploads/2022/12/RI_CausesofandResponsestoTodaysInflation_Report_202212.pdf

5. Key Rate Statistics. 2024. CBR, available at: https://www.cbr.ru/eng/hd_base/KeyRate/

6. СBR: Inflation and Consumer Sentiment. Inflation and Consumer Sentiment, 2024, no 4(88), available at: https://www.cbr.ru/Collection/Collection/ File/49132/Infl_exp_24-04_e.pdf

7. Macroeconomic survey of the Bank of Russia. October, 2024. CBR, available at: https://www.cbr.ru/eng/statistics/ddkp/mo_br/

8. FDI Database. 2024. New York, UNCTAD, available at: https://unctadstat.unctad.org/datacentre/dataviewer/US.FdiFlowsStock

9. The State Council on further optimizing the environment for foreign investment. Opinions on increasing efforts to attract foreign investment. Guo Fa, 2023, no 11, available at: https://www.gov.cn/zhengce/content/202308/content_6898048.htm

10. FDI database. Paris, OECD, 2024, available at: https://data.oecd.org/fdi/fdi-flows.htm

DOI: 10.33917/es-3.195.2024.120-125

The article dwells on the change in the market index of “Economic Strategies” (MIES) for the first quarter of 2024. The contribution of demand and supply indicators to the KIES is assessed. Analysis of industrial production is carried out.

References:

1. Sotsial’no-ekonomicheskoe polozhenie Rossii. Yanvar’ — mart 2024 god: Doklad [Socio-Economic Situation in Russia. January – March 2024: Report]. Federal’naya sluzhba gosudarstvennoy statistiki, available at: https://rosstat.gov.ru/storage/mediabank/osn-03-2024.pdf

2. Stsenarnye usloviya funktsionirovaniya ekonomiki Rossiyskoy Federatsii, osnovnye parametry prognoza sotsial’no-ekonomicheskogo razvitiya Rossiyskoy Federatsii i prognoziruemye izmeneniya tsen (tarifov) na tovary, uslugi khozyaystvuyushchikh sub”ektov, osushchestvlyayushchikh reguliruemye vidy deyatel’nosti v infrastrukturnom sektore, na 2025 god i na planovyy period 2026 i 2027 godov [Scenario Conditions for Functioning of the Economy of the Russian Federation, the Main Parameters of the Forecast of Socio-Economic Development of the Russian Federation and Projected Changes in Prices (Tariffs) for Goods and Services of Business Entities Carrying out Regulated Activities in the Infrastructure Sector for 2025 and for the Planning Period of 2026 and 2027]. Ministerstvo ekonomicheskogo razvitiya RF, available at: https://economy.gov.ru/material/directions/makroec/prognozy_socialno_ekonomicheskogo_razvitiya/scenarnye_usloviya_funkcionirovaniya_ekonomiki_rf_osnovnye_parametry_prognoza_socialno_ekonomicheskogo_razvitiya_rf_na_2025_god_i_na_planovyy_period_2026_i_2027_godovhtml

3. Poslanie Prezidenta Rossiyskoy Federatsii Federal’nomu sobraniyu Rossiyskoy Federatsii 29 fevralya 2024 goda [Address of the President of the Russian Federation to the Federal Assembly of the Russian Federation on February 29, 2024]. Ofitsial’nyy sayt Prezidenta RF, available at: http://kremlin.ru/events/president/news/73585

4. Ukaz Prezidenta Rossiyskoy Federatsii ot 7 maya 2024 g. “O natsional’nykh tselyakh razvitiya Rossiyskoy Federatsii na period do 2030 goda i na perspektivu do 2036 goda” [Decree of the President of the Russian Federation of May 7, 2024 “On the National Development Goals of the Russian Federation for the Period until 2030 and for the Future up to 2036”]. Ofitsial’nyy sayt Prezidenta RF, available at: http://kremlin.ru/events/president/news/73986

5. Frenkel’ A.A., Tikhomirov B.I., Surkov A.A. 2023 god: ukreplenie gosudarstvennogo suvereniteta i ustoychivosti strategicheskogo razvitiya Rossii v usloviyakh turbulentnosti [2023: Strengthening the State Sovereignty and Sustainability of Russia’s Strategic Development in Conditions of Turbulence].

Ekonomicheskie strategii, 2024, no 1(193), pp. 70–75, DOI: https://doi.org/10.33917/es-1.193.2024.70-75

DOI: 10.33917/mic-3.116.2024.69-75

A factor model of US economic growth, developed by famous economists P.E. Samuelson and V.E. Nordhouse, is presented. [1]. An analysis of the growth of inflation in the US and European economies in 2023 and ways to reduce it due to an increase in interest rates by the US Federal Reserve System and the European Central Bank is given. It is noted that the Russian economy in 2022–2023. ranked fifth in the world in terms of GDP calculated at purchasing power parity (PPP), ahead of European countries, and according to the World Bank in May 2024 it rose to fourth place.

References:

1. Samuelson P.E., Nordhaus V.D. Economy. 16th edition. Williams Publishing House, 2003. 688 p.

2. Global fun. The IMF has raised its forecasts for the global and Russian economies. Kommersant, January 30, 2024. URL: https://www.kommersant.ru/doc/6479601

3. Khazin M. Why will the USA and the dollar face «horror-horror-horror» in 2024 and what is Russia’s strategy? URL: https:/www. business-gazeta ru/article/6188366

4. Kuzovkin A.I. Climate Summit in Rome and Climate Conference in Glasgow in 2021. Microeconomics. 2022;1:91–97. (In Russ.).

5. From the minutes of the Federal Open Market Committee. URL: https://smart-lab.ru/blog/856802.php

6. Milchakova N. Mysteries of GDP: how and why did Russia become the fifth economy in the world? Moskovsky Komsomolets. April 1, 2024. URL: https://www.mk.ru/economics/2024/03/31/zagadki-vvp-kak-i-pochemu-rossiya-stala-pyatoy-ekonomikoy-mira.html

7. Vedeneeva N. Academician Aganbegyan told how to make Russians rich: «A very effective tool». Moskovsky Komsomolets, March 20, 2024. URL: https://www.mk.ru/economics/2024/03/19/akademik-aganbegyan-rasskazal-kak-sdelat-rossiyan-bogatymi-ochen-deystvennyy-instrument.html

DOI: 10.33917/es-1.193.2024.70-75

The article dwells on the changes in the Market Index of “Economic Strategies” (MIES) for eleven months of 2023.

Contribution of demand and supply indicators to MIES is assessed. Analysis of industrial production is carried out.

References:

1. Itogi goda s Vladimirom Putinym: pryamaya liniya s grazhdanami i bol’shaya press-konferentsiya s predstavitelyami SMI 14 dekabrya 2023 goda [Results of the Year with Vladimir Putin: Direct Line with Citizens and a Large Press Conference with Media Representatives on December 14, 2023]. Ofitsial’nyy sayt Prezidenta RF, available at: http://kremlin.ru/events/president/news/7299

2. Sotsial’no-ekonomicheskoe polozhenie Rossii v yanvare — noyabre 2023 goda: Doklad [Socio-economic Situation in Russia in January — November 2023: Report]. Federal’naya sluzhba gosudarstvennoy statistiki, available at: https://rosstat.gov.ru/storage/mediabank/osn-11-2023.pdf

3. Frenkel’ A.A., Tikhomirov B.I., Surkov A.A. Itogi strategicheskogo razvitiya Rossii v yanvare — aprele 2023 goda — luchshe pessimistichnykh prognozov [Outcomes of Russia’s Strategic Development in January-April 2023 are Better than Pessimistic Forecasts]. Ekonomicheskie strategii, 2023, no 4, pp. 86–91, DOI: 10.33917/es-4.190.2023.86-91

4. Obrashchenie Prezidenta RF V.V. Putina v svyazi s predsedatel’stvom RF v Ob”edinenii BRIKS [Address by the President of the Russian Federation V.V. Putin in Connection with the Russian Federation’s Chairmanship of the BRICS Association]. Ofitsial’nyy sayt Prezidenta RF, available at: http://kremlin.ru/events/president/news/73202

5. Kontseptsiya predsedatel’stva RF v Sodruzhestve Nezavisimykh Gosudarstv v 2024 godu [Concept of the Russian Federation’s Chairmanship of the Commonwealth of Independent States in 2024]. Ofitsial’nyy sayt Prezidenta RF, available at: http://kremlin.ru/events/president/news/73203

DOI: 10.33917/es-6.192.2023.70-77

The most important factor of inflation in the modern Russian economy is investment support for backward technologies.

The cheapness of labour and the low rate of accumulation cause a backwardness funnel into which the economy is gradually plunging. Meanwhile, interventions of the Bank of Russia weaken the national currency, provoke new waves of inflation and block economic growth. At the same time, the Russian economy has certain reserves of stability, based on the presence of a number of built-in stabilizers, identified through regression analysis. A set of measures aimed at overcoming the current unfavourable dynamics of the economic environment is proposed and justified.

References:

1. Zhizn’ vzaimy. Kak peregrelas’ rossiiskaya ekonomika i chem eto grozit [Life on Borrowed Time. How the Russian Economy Overheated and what it Threatens]. NUR.KZ, 2023, 8 avgusta, available at: https://dzen.ru/a/ZNHKoql33BP55hHi?encoded_pulse_user_info=PDubqO-mOXxJtkXI01sTPDSj4o_

Q7q8ajWIqVL5OKPXKtXjqwwubLYQ9uqJHRpSNnu6u6WiAaaTXMl_h8g6euw:1691563565003&from_site=mai

2. Nizhegorodtsev R.M., Gorid’ko N.P., Ivanov E.Yu., Trenev N.N., Skachkova M.A. Gorizonty ekonomicheskogo rosta: faktory, riski, instituty: Nauch. Monografiya [Horizons of Economic Growth: Factors, Risks, Institutions: Scientific monograph.]. Ed. R.M. Nizhegorodtseva. Moscow, NIPKTs “Voskhod-A”, 2022, 184 p.

3. Kochetov Aleksei. Zapadnye eksperty prishli k vyvodu, chto ekonomika Rossii dolzhna byt’ v 3–5 raz bol’she, chem ob etom zayavlyayut… [Western Experts Have Come to the Conclusion that the Russian Economy Should be 3–5 Times Larger than Stated…]. Dzen.ru, 2023, 27 maya, available at: https://dzen.ru/a/ZG4spOPg13Hyab99?from_site=mail

DOI: 10.33917/es-4.190.2023.86-91

The author dwells on the change in the market index of “Economic Strategies” (MIES) for the first four months of 2023.

Contribution of supply and demand indicators to the MIES is assessed. Analysis of industrial production is carried out.

References:

1. Sotsial’no-ekonomicheskoe polozhenie Rossii v yanvare — mae 2023 goda: Doklad [Socio-Economic Situation in Russia in January-May 2023: Report]. Federal’naya sluzhba gosudarstvennoi statistiki, available at: https://rosstat.gov.ru/storage/mediabank/osn-05-2023.pdf.

2. Sotsial’no-ekonomicheskoe polozhenie Rossii v yanvare — aprele 2022 goda: Doklad [Socio-Economic Situation in Russia in January-April 2022: Report]. Federal’naya sluzhba gosudarstvennoi statistiki, available at: https://rosstat.gov.ru/storage/mediabank/osn-01-2023.pdf.

3. Frenkel’ A.A., Tikhomirov B.I., Surkov A.A. “Nepredskazuemye” itogi 2022 goda i potentsial’nye ugrozy strategicheskomu razvitiyu Rossii v tekushchem godu [“Unpredictable” Results of 2022 and Potential Threats to Russia’s Strategic Development in the Current Year]. Ekonomicheskie strategii, 2023, no 2(188), pp. 44–49, DOI: 10.33917/es-2.188.2023.44-49.

4. Informatsiya o plenarnom zasedanii XXVI Peterburgskogo mezhdunarodnogo ekonomicheskogo foruma 16 iyunya 2023 g. [Information on the plenary meeting of the XXVI St. Petersburg International Economic Forum on June 16, 2023]. Ofitsial’nyi sait Prezidenta R, available at: http://kremlin.ru/events/president/news/71445.ru/events/president/news/70565.

DOI: 10.33917/es-2.188.2023.50-55

Examines the monetary policy features in the context of the investment agenda. Current policy of the Bank of Russia is analyzed. Business profitability accounting in the monetary policy of the financial regulator contribute to the growth of Russian companies’ investment activity.

References:

1. Lutsenko S.I. Dokhodnost’ biznesa i denezhno-kreditnaya politika [Profitability of Business and Monetary Policy]. Strategicheskie resheniya i riskmenedzhment, 2022, no 4, pp. 326–332.

2. Konstitutsiya Rossiiskoi Federatsii (prinyata vsenarodnym golosovaniem 12 dekabrya 1993 g. s izmeneniyami, odobrennymi v khode obshcherossiiskogo golosovaniya 1 iyulya 2020 g.) [The Constitution of the Russian Federation (adopted by popular vote on 12/12/1993 with amendments approved during the all-Russian vote on 07/01/2020)]. Ofitsial’nyi sait Prezidenta RF, available at: http://www.kremlin.ru/acts/constitution.

3. Opredelenie Konstitutsionnogo suda RF ot 14 dekabrya 2000 g. no 268-O [Determination of the Constitutional Court of the Russian Federation of December 14, 2000 No. 268-O]. Vestnik Konstitutsionnogo suda RF, 2001, no 2.

4. Opredelenie Konstitutsionnogo suda RF ot 15 yanvarya 2003 g. no 45-O [Determination of the Constitutional Court of the Russian Federation of January 15, 2003 No. 45-O]. Vestnik Konstitutsionnogo suda RF, 2003, no 3.

5. Federal’nyi zakon ot 10 iyulya 2002 g. no 86-FZ “O Tsentral’nom banke Rossiiskoi Federatsii (Banke Rossii)” [Federal Law of July 10, 2002 No. 86-FZ “On the Central Bank of the Russian Federation (Bank of Russia)”]. Sobranie zakonodatel’stva RF, 2002, no 28.

6. Osnovnye napravleniya edinoi gosudarstvennoi denezhno-kreditnoi politiki na 2023 god i period 2024 i 2025 godov (utv. Bankom Rossii) [The main directions of the unified state monetary policy for 2023 and the period of 2024 and 2025 (approved by the Bank of Russia)]. Konsul’tantPlyus, available at: https://www.consultant.ru/document/cons_doc_LAW_430425.

7. Informatsiya Banka Rossii ot 24 maya 2019 g. “MVF nazval targetirovanie inflyatsii i gibkii obmennyi kurs odnimi iz klyuchevykh predposylok dlya povysheniya potentsiala rosta rossiiskoi ekonomiki” [Information from the Bank of Russia dated May 24, 2019 “The IMF called inflation targeting and a flexible exchange rate one of the key prerequisites for increasing the growth potential of the Russian economy”]. Vestnik Banka Rossii, 2019, no 34.

8. Informatsionnoe soobshchenie Banka Rossii ot 21 noyabrya 2019 g. “Missiya MVF zayavila o vazhnosti sokhraneniya v Rossii prochnoi makroekonomicheskoi osnovy” [Information message of the Bank of Russia dated November 21, 2019 “The IMF mission declared the importance of maintaining a solid macroeconomic foundation in Russia”]. Vestnik Banka Rossii, 2019, no 74.

9. Prikaz Minsel’khoza Rossii ot 19 marta 2014 g. no 83 “Ob utverzhdenii otraslevoi tselevoi programmy “Razvitie khlebopekarnoi promyshlennosti Rossiiskoi Federatsii na 2014–2016 gody” [Order of the Ministry of Agriculture of Russia dated March 19, 2014 no. 83 “On approval of the sectoral target program “Development of the baking industry of the Russian Federation for 2014-2016”]. Konsul’tantPlyus, available at: https://www.consultant.ru/cons/cgi/online.cgi?req=doc&base=EXP&n=582610#8c8RoZTUXZLWGs3n.

DOI: 10.33917/es-2.188.2023.44-49

The article addresses the change in the market index of “Economic Strategies” (MIES) for 2022. Contribution of the supply and demand indicators to the KIES is assessed. Dynamics of industrial production is analyzed.

References:

1. Poslanie Prezidenta Rossiiskoi Federatsii Federal’nomu sobraniyu Rossiiskoi Federatsii ot 21 fevralya 2023 g. [Address of the President of the Russian Federation to the Federal Assembly of the Russian Federation of February 21, 2023]. Ofitsial’nyi sait Prezidenta RF, available at: http://kremlin.ru/events/president/news/70565.

2. Otsenka chislennosti postoyannogo naseleniya na 1 yanvarya 2023 g. i v srednem za 2022 g. i komponenty ee izmeneniya (s uchetom itogov Vserossiiskoi perepisi naseleniya 2020 g.) [Estimated Resident Population as of January 1, 2023 and on Average for 2022 and Components of its Change (Against Results of the 2020 All-Russian Population Census)]. Federal’naya sluzhba gosudarstvennoi statistiki, available at: https://rosstat.gov.ru/folder/12781.

3. Sotsial’no-ekonomicheskoe polozhenie Rossii v yanvare — dekabre 2022 goda: Doklad [Socio-Economic Situation in Russia in January-December 2022: Report]. Federal’naya sluzhba gosudarstvennoi statistiki, available at: https://rosstat.gov.ru/storage/mediabank/osn-12-2022.pdf.

4. Sotsial’no-ekonomicheskoe polozhenie Rossii v yanvare 2023 goda: Doklad [Socio-Economic Situation in Russia in January 2023: Report]. Federal’naya sluzhba gosudarstvennoi statistiki, available at: https://rosstat.gov.ru/storage/mediabank/osn-01-2023.pdf.

5. Frenkel’ A.A., Tikhomirov B.I., Surkov A.A. Itogi razvitiya mobilizatsionnoi ekonomiki Rossii v yanvare — sentyabre 2022 g.: bor’ba za gosudarstvennyi suverenitet [Results of the Development of the Mobilization Economy of Russia in January — September 2022: the Struggle for State Sovereignty].

Ekonomicheskie strategii, 2022, no 6(186), pp. 30–35, DOI: 10.33917/es-6.186.2022.30-35.

6. Informatsiya ob uchastii Prezidenta RF v rabote ezhegodnogo s”ezda Rossiiskogo soyuza promyshlennikov i predprinimatelei (RSPP) 16 marta 2023 g. [Information on Participation of the President of the Russian Federation in the Annual Congress of the Russian Union of Industrialists and Entrepreneurs (RSPP) on March 16, 2023]. Ofitsial’nyi sait Prezidenta RF, available at: http://kremlin.ru/events/president/news/70688.

DOI: https://doi.org/10.33917/es-6.186.2022.30-35

Changing of a conjuncture index of “Economic strategy” (CIES) for nine months of 2020 is considered. The contribution of indicators of supply and demand in CIES is estimated. The analysis of industrial production is carried out.

References:

1. Sotsial’no-ekonomicheskoe polozhenie Rossii v yanvare — sentyabre 2022 goda [Socio-economic Situation in Russia in January — September 2022]. Federal’naya sluzhba gosudarstvennoi statistiki, available at: https://rosstat.gov.ru/storage/mediabank/osn-09-2022.pdf.

2. Frenkel’ A.A., Tikhomirov B.I., Surkov A.A. Yanvar’ — mai 2022 goda: Rossiya v usloviyakh tormozheniya sotsial’no-ekonomicheskogo razvitiya [2022, January — May: Russia in the Context of Slowing Down Socio-economic Development]. Ekonomicheskie strategii, 2022, vol. 24, no 4, pp. 90–95, DOI: https://doi.org/10.33917/es-4.184.2022.90-95.

3. Informatsiya o soveshchanii Prezidenta RF s chlenami Pravitel’stva RF 16 noyabrya 2022 g. v rezhime videokonferentsii [Information on the Meeting of the President of the Russian Federation with Members of the RF Government on November 16, 2022 Via Videoconference]. Ofitsial’nyi sait Prezidenta RF, available at: http://kremlin.ru/events/president/news/69847.

4. Prognoz sotsial’no-ekonomicheskogo razvitiya Rossiiskoi Federatsii na 2023 god i na planovyi period 2024 i 2025 godov [Forecast of the Socio-economic Development of the Russian Federation for 2023 and for the Scheduled Period of 2024 and 2025]. Ministerstvo ekonomicheskogo razvitiya RF, 2022, 28 sentyabrya, available at: https://economy.gov.ru/material/file/ea2fd3ce38f2e28d51c312acf2be0917/prognoz_socialno_ekonom_razvitiya_rf_2023-2025.pdf.

5. Informatsiya o Plenarnom zasedanii Peterburgskogo mezhdunarodnogo ekonomicheskogo foruma s uchastiem Prezidenta RF 17 iyunya 2022 g. [Information on the Plenary Meeting of the St. Petersburg International Economic Forum with Participation of the President of the Russian Federation on June 17, 2022]. Ofitsial’nyi sait Prezidenta RF, available at: kremlin.ru/events/president/news/68669.

DOI: 10.33917/mic-4.105.2022.33-38

This article discusses anti-Russian sanctions imposed from 2014 to the present. Based on open data and Rosstat statistics, the dynamics of inflation and real incomes of the population are analyzed. Conclusions are drawn about the futility of anti-Russian sanctions, and basically not achieving the goals set by the initiators.