DOI: 10.33917/mic-4.117.2024.27-38

The article analyzes the global economic forecasts for 2024–2025 developed by the World Bank, the IMF, and the OECD. According to the May OECD report, one of the risks to economic development may be an acceleration of inflation in developed countries. In the United States, annual inflation accelerated to 3,5% in March 2024, compared to 3,2% in February. And the US Federal Reserve is ready to postpone the interest rate cut until November 2024. The IMF forecast for Russian GDP growth in 2024 has been improved to 3,2%, but reduced to 1,8% for 2025. For the United States, GDP growth is projected to be 2,1% in 2024, and 1,7% for 2025.

References:

1. Chugunov Artem. The Economy of Developing Overheating. The World Bank Shares the Position of the Bank of Russia on the Nature of Inflation in the Russian Federation. 04/15/2024. URL: https://www.kommersant.ru/doc/6648521

2. World Bank. 2024. Global Economic Prospects. January. Washington, DC: World Bank. URL: https://openknowledge.worldbank.org/server/api/core/bitstreams/7fe97e0a-52c5-4655-9207-c176eb9fb66a/content

3. Borovikova Kristina. Developing Economies Are Becoming More Attached to Developed Ones. Monitoring the World Economy. 05.04.2024. URL: https://www.kommersant.ru/doc/6622054

4. Borovikova Kristina. The Grounds for a Global Slowdown Are Being Selected. OECD expects moderate growth in 2024. 06.02.2024. URL: https://www.kommersant.ru/doc/6493747

5. Edovina Tatyana. Global fun. The IMF has raised its forecasts for the global and Russian economies. 30.01.2024. URL: https://www.kommersant.ru/doc/6479601

6. Today’s number. Inflation in the OECD in 2023. 08.02.2024. URL: https://www.kommersant.ru/doc/6495212

7. Borovikova Kristina. The global economy has received additional growth. The OECD has cautiously improved its global GDP forecast. 02.05.2024. URL: https://www.kommersant.ru/doc/6680489

8. OECD Economic Outlook, May 2024. URL: https://www.oecd.org/economic-outlook/may-2024/

9. Elvira Nabiullina’s press conference: increase in the key rate, peak inflation. Key points. URL: https://www.kommersant.ru/doc/6760711

DOI: 10.33917/mic-6.113.2023.76-88

Forecasts are given for 2023–2028 global demand for oil and energy, as well as real GDP growth by region of the world. The linear regression models developed by the authors and graphs of the relationship between the annual growth rate of global GDP and the annual growth rate of global oil and energy demand are presented.

According to the authors, the fight against inflation by the US Federal Reserve and the Central Bank of Europe through raising interest rates leads to a decrease in investment and a decrease in the growth rate of GDP in the US and Europe.

References: 

1. «Prospects for the development of the world economy».  World Bank report dated June 05,2023. URL:  https://www.vsemirnyjbank.org/ru/publication/global- economic-prospects

2. The Central Bank kept the key rate at 7,5%

for the fifth time in a row. KOMMERSANT dated04/28/2023. URL: https://www.kommersant.ru/doc/5955429

3. The economy is reaching a plateau. GDP monitoring. KOMMERSANT dated 08/04/2023.

URL: https://www.kommersant.ru/doc/6138316

4. EDB macro forecast 2023–2025: economic growth forecast has been improved for all countries in the region. URL: https://eabr.org/press/releases/makroprognoz-eabr-2023–2025-prognozekonomicheskogo-rosta- uluchshen-dlya-vsekhstran-regiona/

5. IEA «Oil 2023 Analysis and forecast to 2028». June 2023. URL: https://www.iea.org/reports/oil-2023

6. IEA «World Energy Outlook 2022». URL:

https://iea.blob.core.windows.net/assets/830fe099–5530–48f2-a7c1–11f35d510983/WorldEnergyOutlook2022.pdf

DOI: 10.33917/es-3.189.2023.6-15

Key parameters of attacks directions on the Russian economy and forecasts of the expected results, which previously have inspired confidence in Western states that political regime would inevitability fall, which stimulated the US and EU sanctions activity, were developed by a number of authoritative Western expert structures. Western strategies for collapsing the Russian economy in 2022–2023 with the help of sanctions, formed on the basis of these forecasts, did not bring the desired result. At the same time, alternative forecasts of a group of Russian scientists from the CEMI RAS and their Chinese colleagues on stability of the economies of Russia and China in the event of a friendly policy in the context of trade wars with the US and the EU, made in 2019, were fully confirmed. At the core of these forecasts there are analytical tools based on agent modeling.

References:

1. Ageev A.I., Loginov E.L. Mirovoe soobshchestvo v usloviyakh sverkhkriticheskoi bifurkatsii Upravlenie slozhnymi organizatsionnymi i tekhnicheskimi sistemami v usloviyakh sverkhkriticheskikh situatsii: Materialy mezhdunarodnoi nauchno-prakticheskoi konferentsii [World Community in Conditions of Supercritical Bifurcation: Management of Complex Organizational and Technical Systems in Conditions of Supercritical Situations: Proceedings of the international scientific and practical conference]. Moscow, INES, 2022, pp. 9–12.

2. Ageev A.I., Loginov E.L. Novaya bol’shaya voina: khroniki khorosho zabytogo budushchego [New Large-Scale War: Chronicles of Well Forgotten Future]. Ekonomicheskie strategii, 2014, vol. 16, no 6–7(122–123), pp. 16–33.

3. Makarov V.L., Vu Ts., Vu Z., Khabriev B.R., Bakhtizin A.R. Mirovye torgovye voiny: stsenarnye raschety posledstvii [World Trade Wars: Scenario Calculations of Consequences]. Vestnik Rossiiskoi akademii nauk, 2020, vol. 90, no 2, pp. 169–179.

4. Makarov V.L., Vu Ts., Vu Z., Khabriev B.R., Bakhtizin A.R. Sovremennye instrumenty otsenki posledstvii mirovykh torgovykh voin [Modern Tools for Assessing the Effects of World Trade Wars]. Vestnik Rossiiskoi akademii nauk, 2019, vol. 89, no 7, pp. 745–754.

5. Tsigas M., McDaniel C., Schropp S., Mahlstein K. Potential economic effects of sanctions on Russia: An Allied trade embargo. Voxeu.org, 2022, available at: https://voxeu.org/article/potential-economic-effects-allied-trade-embargo-russia.

6. Mahlstein K., McDaniel C., Schropp S., Tsigas M. Estimating the economic effects of sanctions on Russia: An Allied trade embargo. The World Economy, 2022, no 45, pp. 3344–3383, available at: https://doi.org/10.1111/twec.13311.

7. Bryan R., Johnson G., Sytsma T., Priebe M. Does the U.S. Economy Benefit from U.S. Alliances and Forward Military Presence? Santa Monica, CA: RAND Corporation, 2022, available at: https://www.rand.org/pubs/research_reports/RRA739-5.

8. Bolhuis A. Marijn, Jiaqian Chen, Benjamin Kett. Fragmentation in Global Trade: Accounting for Commodities. IMF Working Paper. 2023. No. WP 23/73.

DOI: 10.33917/mic-3.110.2023.50-58

The problem of stratification of societies and the population in them according to the criterion of specific production of national capital (NPC) and capital (PCC) of subjects of the Russian Federation is discussed in comparison with stratification by specific GDP. The integral interpretation of capital as the sum of physical, human and social components means: scientifically substantiated stratification of both the countries of the world and their population is based not on indicators of the standard of living, but on indicators of the quality of life; not from GDP, but from PNK or a dimensionless analogue of PNK – the quality of life index I. Stratification by GDP is another suggestion in science.

References:

1. Ponomarev V. Avant-garde stratification of nations // Economic strategies. 2022;3:16-25. (In Russ.).

2. Golubev V.S. Harmony will save the world. M., LENAND, 2017. 296 p.

3. Bushuev V.V., Golubev V.S., Orlov I.B. Introduction to the system theory of capital. M.: Lenand, 2013. 176 p.

4. Bushuev V.V., Golubev V.S., Tarko A.M. Structural energy as a development potential. World and Russia. M., LENAND, 2014. 157 p.

5. Golubev V.S. Scientific basis of energy strategies // Economic strategies 2022;3:38-53. (In Russ.).

6. Bushuev V.V., Golubev V.S. Man and time in the evolving world. M., LENAND, 2014. 192 p.

7. Golubev V.S. Fundamentals of ecosociohumanism. M.: INFRA-M, 2022. 158 p.

DOI: 10.33917/es-7.165.2019.74-77

The Treaty on the Eurasian Economic Union (EAEU), signed on May 29, 2014, entered into force on January 1, 2015. The purpose of the Union is to provide conditions for the stable economic development of member states by improving the living standards of the population, comprehensive modernization, cooperation and increasing the competitiveness of national economies. Armenia became part of the EAEU 2015 on January 2. At the same time, the most important problems for all countries remain: the problem of diversification of national industry; low competitiveness of the products of most manufacturers, a low share of high-tech products in exports, virtually no trade and investment cooperation between individual pairs of countries, the degree of public confidence in the integration group. The article discusses issues related to the economic development of Armenia within the EAEU, mutual trade with the EAEU member countries, the attitude of the population to the EAEU; the positive and negative aspects of Armenia’s participation in the EAEU, as well as possible ways to strengthen integration within the EAEU are revealed

The article analyzes three periods of the Russian economy: the transformation crisis of 1990–1998, characterized by depth and duration, the period of regenerative economic recovery in 1999–2008, during which a shift into nationalization and monopolization of the economy took place, as well as the period of 2009–2017, called the “lost decade” by the author, the period of deep financial and socio-economic crisis as part of the global world crisis. Possible prospects for development and ways of entrance into high-quality significant socio-economic growth are described.

The article analyzes three periods of the Russian economy: the transformation crisis of 1990–1998, characterized by depth and duration, the period of regenerative economic recovery in 1999–2008, during which a shift into nationalization and monopolization of the economy took place, as well as the period of 2009–2017, called the “lost decade” by the author, the period of deep financial and socio-economic crisis as part of the global world crisis. Possible prospects for development and ways of entrance into high-quality significant socio-economic growth are described.

BRICS countries today are the most intensively developing countries of the world economy, since they have a rich resource base, scientific and labor potential. According to leading economists it is economic growth of Brazil, Russia, India, China and the Republic of South Africa that will ensure the future economic growth of the world economy. At the same time, the BRICS countries are the largest agricultural producers, accounting one third of the world agricultural production. About half of the world’s pork volume and about one third of poultry and beef are produced at their territory. At the same time, there are certain trends of specialization of each country in the world agricultural market. All of above enumerates stipulate relevance to study of current state and development prospects of agriculture in the BRICS countries. The methodological basis of the study, results of which are presented in the article, are statistical methods for analyzing the level of development of agriculture and cross-country comparisons. They make it possible to obtain a quantitative assessment of the place of each country in the world market of agricultural product.