DOI: https://doi.org/10.33917/es-3.183.2022.26-37

In this paper, an attempt is made to develop a mathematical model of population growth, based on socio-economic factors of the development of the countries’ community, as well as population migration. The author presents intermediate results of his review where he studies economic community, characterized by a very uneven development of regions. Mathematical model is proposed in which a conditional “center” and “periphery” (“global city” and “world village”) are distinguished. From the analysis of the existing socio-economic conditions of development it follows that “periphery” traditionally acts as a demographic donor for the “center”. Examples of such systems include, in particular, relations of the EU-Baltic republics, the EU-Ukraine, and Russia–EAEU countries. As an explanatory principle, it is proposed to use the concept of “institutional trap”. From the mathematical model point of view, this means rigidly fixed coefficients of connection between the system elements implementing one-way connection (toward the “center”). Possible mechanisms, influencing the dynamics of the system through adopting appropriate managerial decisions, are discussed. Obtained results prove the importance of adequate mathematical models for optimizing the strategic management of society.

Источники:

1. Ukaz Prezidenta RF ot 1 dekabrya 2016 g. N 642 “O Strategii nauchno-tekhnologicheskogo razvitiya Rossiiskoi Federatsii” [Executive Order of the President of the Russian Federation dated December 1, 2016 No. 642 “On the Strategy for Scientific and Technological Development of the Russian Federation”]. Ofitsial’nyi sait Prezidenta RF, available at: http://www.kremlin.ru/acts/bank/41449.

2. Complex Systems and Society — Modeling and Simulation. Springer, 2013, available at:  https://link.springer.com/book/10.1007/978-1-4614-7242-1.

3. Solozhentsev E.D. Tsifrovoe upravlenie gosudarstvom i ekonomikoi [Digital Management of the State and Economy]. Upravlenie i planirovanie v ekonomike, 2018, no 1(17), pp. 136–153.

4. Federal’nyi zakon ot 28 iyunya 2014 g. N 172-FZ “O strategicheskom planirovanii v Rossiiskoi Federatsii” [Federal Law of June 28, 2014 No. 172-FZ “On Strategic Planning in the Russian Federation”]. Ofitsial’nyi sait Prezidenta RF, available at: http://www.kremlin.ru/acts/bank/38630.

5. Eberlin M. Foresight: How the Chemistry of Life Reveals Planning and Purpose. Discovery Institute, 2019.

6. Gaponenko N.V. Forsait. Teoriya. Metodologiya. Opyt [Foresight. Theory. Methodology. Experience]. Monografiya. Moscow, Yuniti — Danab, 2008, 239 p.

7. Unido Technology Foresight Manual. United Nations Industrial Development Organization, Vienna, 2005, vol. 1, p. 8.

8. Pereslegin S.B. Budushchee kak proekt: krizis futurologii [The Future as a Project: Crisis of Futurology]. Intellekt, voobrazhenie, intuitsiya: razmyshleniya o gorizontakh soznaniya (metafizicheskii i psikhologicheskii opyt). Saint-Petersburg, 2001, no 10.

DOI: 10.33917/mic-1.96.2021.27-35

The purpose of this work is to form an algorithm for organizing the process of creating the appearance of a radically new satellite service based on an analysis of current and future consumer expectations. To solve this problem, it is proposed to use the methods of the Foresight project and technologies for detecting changes in consumer behavior by weak signals. The proposed algorithm makes it possible to form a technological roadmap for the development of a radically new satellite service, which allows organizing the necessary research and development. Plan resources for the creation of new technologies, taking into account the risks.

The author considers three generations of foresight to identify the vector and the logic of its development in order to build theoretical foundation and methodology of foresight in a knowledge-based economy. The article reveals that as the new economy comes into being and develops, a shift from the paradigm of linearity to complexity paradigm, from considering an object under research as a closed and static system to adaptive, dynamic, open, self-organizing systems of a new complexity level, developing in a globalizing economy, in rapidly changing environments with high level of uncertainty, occurs. Theoretical basis should be the theory of evolution, complexity and chaos.

This article summarizes the results of the International Youth Forum “Future of Eurasian and European Integration: Foresight — 2040”, regarding the economic integration within the European, Eurasian and Asian space. The high interdependence of European and Eurasian markets especially, make strong social and political relations essential in achieving long run economic development, growth and stability in the region. Consequently, this report proposes a C3 strategy encompassing the ideals of Cooperation, Compatibility and Competition in encouraging and facilitating the exchange of goods and services across the EU-EAEU and Asia (China). Specifically, it highlights four main sectors — Transport and Infrastructure, Finance, Technology and Energy through which the C3 strategy could potentially increase economic integration in the EU-EAEU and Asian space by 2040.

Widely used in Russia, the typical methodology of “high-speed foresight” has a number of shortcomings and limitations. Based on recent discoveries of social anthropology and cognitive neuroscience, a transition to “shamanistic foresight” is possible. The new methodology can be effectively used to form a long-term vision for the future of the Siberian and Far Eastern regions of the Russian Federation.

Strategic planning practice in the RF municipal districts on the basis of foresight technology methods, including road mapping, is currently not widespread. The article presents a road map fragment of socio-economic development strategy of the Stavropolsky municipal district of the Samara region, taking into account a concept of a municipal entity as a complex four-aspect system.

The article examines the interrelation between two leadership competencies — leadership vision of the future and the ability to jointly analyze risks and opportunities. On the basis of empirical research materials the paper considers Russian leaders’ conception of leadership vision, personality and group factors of leadership vision, causes of lack of attention from Russian management teams to long-term risks and opportunities.

Foresight is a widespread practice at the national and corporate level, but there are practically no examples of applying this methodology to form a vision of a separate ethnic group future. Based on the analysis of the work of the greatest representative of the Yakut intellectuals A.E. Kulakovsky, the article carries out analysis of the Yakut ethnic group current situation and of different strategies for its development in the 21st century.

Foresight — is an active prediction, which includes elements of impact on the future by matching particular interests of different social strata of civil society.

With the growing uncertainties foresight in a certain sense provides an opportunity for more “stable game” in increasingly unstable world.