DOI: 10.33917/mic-3.116.2024.69-75

A factor model of US economic growth, developed by famous economists P.E. Samuelson and V.E. Nordhouse, is presented. [1]. An analysis of the growth of inflation in the US and European economies in 2023 and ways to reduce it due to an increase in interest rates by the US Federal Reserve System and the European Central Bank is given. It is noted that the Russian economy in 2022–2023. ranked fifth in the world in terms of GDP calculated at purchasing power parity (PPP), ahead of European countries, and according to the World Bank in May 2024 it rose to fourth place.

References:

1. Samuelson P.E., Nordhaus V.D. Economy. 16th edition. Williams Publishing House, 2003. 688 p.

2. Global fun. The IMF has raised its forecasts for the global and Russian economies. Kommersant, January 30, 2024. URL: https://www.kommersant.ru/doc/6479601

3. Khazin M. Why will the USA and the dollar face «horror-horror-horror» in 2024 and what is Russia’s strategy? URL: https:/www. business-gazeta ru/article/6188366

4. Kuzovkin A.I. Climate Summit in Rome and Climate Conference in Glasgow in 2021. Microeconomics. 2022;1:91–97. (In Russ.).

5. From the minutes of the Federal Open Market Committee. URL: https://smart-lab.ru/blog/856802.php

6. Milchakova N. Mysteries of GDP: how and why did Russia become the fifth economy in the world? Moskovsky Komsomolets. April 1, 2024. URL: https://www.mk.ru/economics/2024/03/31/zagadki-vvp-kak-i-pochemu-rossiya-stala-pyatoy-ekonomikoy-mira.html

7. Vedeneeva N. Academician Aganbegyan told how to make Russians rich: «A very effective tool». Moskovsky Komsomolets, March 20, 2024. URL: https://www.mk.ru/economics/2024/03/19/akademik-aganbegyan-rasskazal-kak-sdelat-rossiyan-bogatymi-ochen-deystvennyy-instrument.html

The world price of oil is one of the macroeconomic indicators that significantly affect economic parameters of development in various sectors of the economy. Recently, under the influence of the current insignificant increase of this price, the expectations of its inevitable global growth have increased in the society. So, the state regulator has already prepared a number of strategic materials, including the Energy Strategy of Russia until 2035, where the price of oil in the long run returns to the level of 120–140 dollars per barrel. The authors of the article believe that such expectations of the price are not sufficiently substantiated. Moreover, basing projections on high oil prices, the state regulator may give distorted “signals” to Russian business. In this regard, the article gives a consistent argumentation, supported by the authors’ calculations, where they substantiate that the oil price is likely to “fall” into the corridor of a long-term systemic decline. So, in 2035 the price can be estimated at a value of about 35–43 dollars per barrel. The authors of the article, building the evidence base of the oil price declining trend, applying analytical and statistical methods of research, cite the results of calculations for three different variants. The article points out that the regular change in the price vector — from constantly growing to a systemically falling one — should not only form new “signals” for business and state regulator, but should also determine other boundaries for implementation of previously announced programs and forecasts.