DOI: 10.33917/es-6.192.2023.90-95

The following areas of socio-economic life, where conditions for implementing strategic risks have developed, are considered: demography, scientific and engineering sphere, mechanical engineering. For solving the problems of the listed areas a coordinated concept is required. According to the authors, its central element should become construction of a large private business, especially in high-tech areas.

References:

1. Demograficheskoe budushchee Rossii [Demographic Future of Russia], available at: https://strana-oz.ru/2004/4/demograficheskoe-budushchee-rossii/

2. Rosstat predstavil utochnennyi demograficheskii prognoz do 2036 goda [Rosstat Presented an Updated Demographic Forecast until 2036]. Federal’naya sluzhba gosudarstvennoi statistiki, available at: https://rosstat.gov.ru/folder/313/document/72529

3. Uchenye opredelili “vilku” chislennosti naseleniya Rossii: Bol’shaya chast’ prognozov predusmatrivaet sokrashchenie chislennosti rossiyan [Scientists have Identified a “Fork” in the Population of Russia: Most Forecasts Envisage a Reduction in the Number of Russians]. RBK, 2022, 26 iyulya, available at:

https://www.rbc.ru/economics/26/07/2022/62de7e0f9a7947e84216786d

4. Mariya Makarova. Deindustrializatsiya, krizis, katastrofy: kak poyavlyayutsya goroda-prizraki [Deindustrialization, Crisis, Disasters: How Ghost Towns Appear]. RBK, 2021, 27 avgusta, available at: https://trends.rbc.ru/trends/social/61263ba09a79473e409999c3

5. Anastasiya Tselykh. Rossiyane rabotayut mnogo i plokho. Pochemu tak i chto s etim delat’ [Russians Work Hard and Poorly. Why is this and what to do about it]. Sekret firmy, 2021, 7 maya, available at: https://secretmag.ru/survival/rossiyane-rabotayut-mnogo-i-plokho-pochemu-tak-i-chto-s-etim-delat.htm/

6. Ekaterina Vinogradova. Eksperty ob”yasnili minimum bezrabotitsy v Rossii pri sokrashchenii ekonomiki. Sredi prichin — demograficheskie problemy I nepolnaya zanyatost’ [Experts Explained the Minimum Unemployment in Russia due to the Contraction of the Economy. Reasons Include Demographic Problems and Underemployment]. RBK, 2023, 3 marta, available at: https://www.rbc.ru/economics/03/03/2023/6400712f9a79474d18f79446

7. Anastasiya Kalinina. Srednyaya prodolzhitel’nost’ zhizni v Rossii v 2022–2023 godu [Average Life Expectancy in Russia in 2022–2023]. VisaSam.ru, 2023, 5 oktyabrya, available at: https://visasam.ru/russia/goroda/prodolzhitelnost-zhizni-v-rossii.html

8. Uroven’ zhizni rossiyan padaet uzhe bolee 10 let [The Standard of Living of Russians has been Falling for More than 10 Years]. Dzen.ru, 2022, 18 noyabrya, available at: https://dzen.ru/a/Y3cwaLfI3z1z_b65

9. Razrushenie nauki do “pobednogo kontsa” [Destruction of Science to the Bitter End]. RAN, 2007, 31 maya, available at: https://www.ras.ru/digest/showdnews.aspx?id=9fd43650-ca35-4305-a537-6418fdc62a05&print=1

10. Kul’kin A.M. Nauka v Rossii: protsess degradatsii ili perspektivy ee vozrozhdeniya? [Science in Russia: Process of Degradation or Prospects for Its Revival?]. CyberLeninka.ru, available at: https://cyberleninka.ru/article/n/nauka-v-rossii-protsess-degradatsii-ili-perspektivy-ee-vozrozhdeniya

DOI: https://doi.org/10.33917/es-3.183.2022.26-37

In this paper, an attempt is made to develop a mathematical model of population growth, based on socio-economic factors of the development of the countries’ community, as well as population migration. The author presents intermediate results of his review where he studies economic community, characterized by a very uneven development of regions. Mathematical model is proposed in which a conditional “center” and “periphery” (“global city” and “world village”) are distinguished. From the analysis of the existing socio-economic conditions of development it follows that “periphery” traditionally acts as a demographic donor for the “center”. Examples of such systems include, in particular, relations of the EU-Baltic republics, the EU-Ukraine, and Russia–EAEU countries. As an explanatory principle, it is proposed to use the concept of “institutional trap”. From the mathematical model point of view, this means rigidly fixed coefficients of connection between the system elements implementing one-way connection (toward the “center”). Possible mechanisms, influencing the dynamics of the system through adopting appropriate managerial decisions, are discussed. Obtained results prove the importance of adequate mathematical models for optimizing the strategic management of society.

Источники:

1. Ukaz Prezidenta RF ot 1 dekabrya 2016 g. N 642 “O Strategii nauchno-tekhnologicheskogo razvitiya Rossiiskoi Federatsii” [Executive Order of the President of the Russian Federation dated December 1, 2016 No. 642 “On the Strategy for Scientific and Technological Development of the Russian Federation”]. Ofitsial’nyi sait Prezidenta RF, available at: http://www.kremlin.ru/acts/bank/41449.

2. Complex Systems and Society — Modeling and Simulation. Springer, 2013, available at:  https://link.springer.com/book/10.1007/978-1-4614-7242-1.

3. Solozhentsev E.D. Tsifrovoe upravlenie gosudarstvom i ekonomikoi [Digital Management of the State and Economy]. Upravlenie i planirovanie v ekonomike, 2018, no 1(17), pp. 136–153.

4. Federal’nyi zakon ot 28 iyunya 2014 g. N 172-FZ “O strategicheskom planirovanii v Rossiiskoi Federatsii” [Federal Law of June 28, 2014 No. 172-FZ “On Strategic Planning in the Russian Federation”]. Ofitsial’nyi sait Prezidenta RF, available at: http://www.kremlin.ru/acts/bank/38630.

5. Eberlin M. Foresight: How the Chemistry of Life Reveals Planning and Purpose. Discovery Institute, 2019.

6. Gaponenko N.V. Forsait. Teoriya. Metodologiya. Opyt [Foresight. Theory. Methodology. Experience]. Monografiya. Moscow, Yuniti — Danab, 2008, 239 p.

7. Unido Technology Foresight Manual. United Nations Industrial Development Organization, Vienna, 2005, vol. 1, p. 8.

8. Pereslegin S.B. Budushchee kak proekt: krizis futurologii [The Future as a Project: Crisis of Futurology]. Intellekt, voobrazhenie, intuitsiya: razmyshleniya o gorizontakh soznaniya (metafizicheskii i psikhologicheskii opyt). Saint-Petersburg, 2001, no 10.

DOI: https://doi.org/10.33917/es-2.182.2022.6-19

One of the most promising tools for monitoring and predicting social processes are agent-based models, which are widely used abroad. Their advantage lies in the consideration of the system under study at the level of its individual individuals, which increases the realism of these computer-based assessment methods. In Russia, this direction is also developing, although not so actively. The article discusses the dynamics of the population of Russia, as well as the factors of increasing the birth rate, successful examples of the practical implementation of agent models for studying social processes, a brief description of the model we developed, which includes 146 million agents, is given. With the help of this tool, a forecast of the population of Russia and an assessment of the impact on this indicator of some measures aimed at improving the demographic situation were obtained.

Источники:

1. Makarov V.L., Bakhtizin A.R., Il’in N.I. Modelirovanie i otsenka natsional’noi sily Rossii [Modeling and Assessing the National Strength of Russia]. Ekonomicheskie strategii, 2020, no 2, pp. 6–19, available at: DOI: https://doi.org/10.33917/es-2.168.2020.6-19.

2. Makarov V.L., Bakhtizin A.R., Il’in N.I., Sushko E.D. Natsional’naya bezopasnost’ Rossii [National Security of Russia]. Ekonomicheskie strategii, 2020, no 5, pp. 6–23, available at: DOI: https://doi.org/10.33917/es-5.171.2020.6-23.

3. Andreev E.M., Darskii L.E., Khar’kova T.L. Naselenie Sovetskogo Soyuza: 1922–1991 [Population of the Soviet Union: 1922–1991]. Moscow, Nauka, 1993, 143 p.

4. Federal’naya sluzhba gosudarstvennoi statistiki [Federal State Statistics Service], available at: https://rosstat.gov.ru.

5. Zdravookhranenie [Healthcare]. Federal’naya sluzhba gosudarstvennoi statistiki, available at:  https://rosstat.gov.ru/folder/13721.

6. Sobotka T., Matysiak A., Brzozowska Z. Policy responses to low fertility: How effective are they? Working Paper, May, 2019, N 1, available at: https://www.unfpa.org/sites/default/files/pub-pdf/Policy_responses_low_fertility_UNFPA_WP_Final_corrections_7Feb2020_CLEAN.pdf.

7. The World Bank, available at: https://data.worldbank.org.

8. Aganbegyan A.G. O katastroficheskom uvelichenii smertnosti i merakh po sberezheniyu naroda v Rossii [On Catastrophic Increase in Mortality and Measures to Save the People in Russia]. Ekonomicheskie strategii, 2021, no 4, pp. 6–13, available at: DOI: https://doi.org/10.33917/es-4.178.2021.6-13.

9. Country Comparisons — Death Rate. The World Factbook, available at: https://www.cia.gov/the-world-factbook/field/death-rate/country-comparison.

10. Goldstein J.R., Koulovatianos C., Li J., Schr der C. Evaluating how child allowances and daycare subsidies affect fertility. Goethe University Frankfurt am Main, available at: http://nbn-resolving.de/urn:nbn:de:hebis:30:3-430067.

11. Kalwij A. The impact of family policy expenditure on fertility in western Europe. Demography, 2010, N 47(2), pp. 503–519, available at: DOI: https://doi.org/10.1353/dem.0.0104.

DOI: https://doi.org/10.33917/es-6.180.2021.20-29

Demographic dynamics becomes crucially important for successful scenario of the future for both Eurasian integration and each EAEU member state. The “pandemic crisis” caused an increase in excess mortality, reduced social well-being and created serious legal and managerial conflicts. Within the EAEU new barriers to mobility and migration have emerged and social tension has increased. In the existing realities the current supranational solutions are insufficient, they are poorly focused on achieving the demographic security of the EAEU member states. Coordinated actions are needed to significantly improve the demographic situation in the EAEU.

DOI: https://doi.org/ 10.33917/es-5.179.2021.6-15

How is it that in Russia, unlike in other countries, during the coronavirus pandemic the total mortality increased by a record amount and the income and consumption of the population decreased to the greatest extent? The point is that the crisis, caused by the coronavirus pandemic, is completely different from previous ones. It highlights the dilemma: should we use forces and means to prevent an economic recession with lower costs for anti-crisis measures, or focus on saving people’s lives while minimizing additional mortality and maintaining real incomes of the population? Each country, depending on objectives, prevailing conditions and opportunities, chooses its “golden mean”. In many cases such choice is not fully conscious, since it’s not possible to forecast with any certainty even over the near term. Decisions have to be taken up along the way, based on the situation and assessing the probability of certain events, including in view of the other countries’  experience in combating the pandemic.

DOI: https://doi.org/ 10.33917/es-5.179.2021.6-15 

How is it that in Russia, unlike in other countries, during the coronavirus pandemic the total mortality increased by a record amount and the income and consumption of the population decreased to the greatest extent? The point is that the crisis, caused by the coronavirus pandemic, is completely different from previous ones. It highlights the dilemma: should we use forces and means to prevent an economic recession with lower costs for anti-crisis measures, or focus on saving people’s lives while minimizing additional mortality and maintaining real incomes of the population? Each country, depending on objectives, prevailing conditions and opportunities, chooses its “golden mean”. In many cases such choice is not fully conscious, since it’s not possible to forecast with any certainty even over the near term. Decisions have to be taken up along the way, based on the situation and assessing the probability of certain events, including in view of the other countries’  experience in combating the pandemic.

DOI: https://doi.org/10.33917/es-4.178.2021.6-13

How is it that in Russia, unlike in other countries, during the coronavirus pandemic the total mortality increased by a record amount and the income and consumption of the population decreased to the greatest extent? The point is that the crisis, caused by the coronavirus pandemic, is completely different from previous ones. It highlights the dilemma: should we use forces and means to prevent an economic recession with lower costs for anti-crisis measures, or focus on saving people’s lives while minimizing additional mortality and maintaining real incomes of the population? Each country, depending on objectives, prevailing conditions and opportunities, chooses its “golden mean”. In many cases such choice is not fully conscious, since it’s not possible to forecast with any certainty even over the near term. Decisions have to be taken up along the way, based on the situation and assessing the probability of certain events, including in view of the other countries’  experience in combating the pandemic.

DOI: 10.33917/es-4.170.2020.20-29

The article analyzes the causes of an extreme social event in the format of a global pandemic. They are associated with the “re-quantization of reality” — the change of universal attractors of the historical process, which set specific ways of regulating system structures. The old system-forming meaning of the development of society as a Zoopopulation has finally exhausted its regulatory possibilities; the new meaning is just beginning to integrate social elements for the transition to a psychosocial formation. The clash and struggle of old and new causal connections generates causal dissonance, leads to an increase in entropy in social systems, which, in turn, generates an extremum that threatens humanity with self — destruction-an omnicide. The specifics of a possible suicide of humanity is of relative importance: epidemics, earthquakes, asteroid crashes, and other variants of global misery can threaten and increase until a new sense of development dominates the social consciousness.

A real pandemic is the best time for a quantum transition from the old regulation to the new: as soon as the new anthropic principle of managing causal connections prevails, the disease will disappear, and civilization will pass to a new period of its development.

The present article analyzes demographic situation in Moscow. It focuses on such topical demographic problems of the city population as migration, birth rate, marriage, length of life, population aging. The author considers the problem of low birth rate as one of the key ones in demographic development of Moscow, without solution of which in many respects it is impossible to cope with the other demographic problems of the capital, such as depopulation of the indigenous population, deformation of the population age structure, reduction of the traditional marriage value. The article presents statistical data characterizing demographic processes in Moscow, it identifies the main trends, evaluates the consequences.

The article examines the life expectancy dynamics in Russia in its historic perspective. It analyzes its differences in men and women. The main attention is paid to studying the causes of extremely low life span in Russia compared to other countries. The paper substantiates the ways of priority increasing not only common but also healthy life time, which largely determines the retirement age.