DOI: 10.33917/es-3.195.2024.138-143

The importance of considering this problem is due to the fact that with the beginning of a special military operation, the volume of state defence orders increased, which, in turn, entailed the need for new staff recruitment to enterprises.

However, having switched to an enhanced operating mode, enterprises of the defence-industrial complex faced the acute problem of a qualified personnel shortage. The undertaken analysis showed that unfavourable demographic situation in the country has a significant negative impact on the number of personnel in the labour market: the population under working age is declining, there is an evident decrease in the employees’ number in the age groups of 15-29 years and there is an outflow of young workers from enterprises as well. In addition, a serious problem for domestic enterprises is the low level of labour productivity, which also has a negative impact on solving problems of providing the required production volumes.

The author proposes a possible approach to solving this problem through active implementation of lean production methods at enterprises of the military-industrial complex.

References:

1. Manturov otsenil potrebnosti OPK v 16 000 spetsialistov [Manturov Estimated the Needs of the Defense Industry at 16,000 Specialists]. Vedomosti, 2023,

24 iyulya, available at: https://www.vedomosti.ru/economics/news/2023/07/24/986662-manturov-otsenil-potrebnosti-opk-v-16-000

2. Maksimova E. V boy idut stariki: oboronnye zavody strany ne mogut nabrat’ rabochikh [Old Men go into Battle: the Country’s Defense Factories cannot Recruit Workers]. 2023, 19 yanvarya, available at: https://newizv.ru/news/2023-01-19/v-boy-idut-stariki-oboronnye-zavody-strany-ne-mogut-nabrat-rabochih-394312

3. Postanovlenie Pravitel’stva RF ot 30 dekabrya 2020 g. N 2369 “O gosudarstvennom plane podgotovki kadrov so srednim professional’nym i vysshim obrazovaniem dlya organizatsiy oboronno-promyshlennogo kompleksa na 2021–2030 gody” [Decree of the Government of the Russian Federation of December 30, 2020 No. 2369 “On the State Plan for Training Personnel with Secondary Vocational and Higher Education for Organizations of the Military-industrial Complex

for 2021–2030”]. Kodeks, available at: https://docs.cntd.ru/document/573275758

4. OPK gotovit kadry [The Defense Industry is Preparing Personnel]. PSB. Portal o promyshlennosti i finansakh, 2021, 20 oktyabrya, available at: https://

rustechnology.ru/success-stories/opk-gotovit-kadry/

5. Perechen’ obrazovatel’nykh organizatsiy [List of Educational Organizations]. Federal’nyy kadrovyy tsentr OPK, available at: https://fkc-opk.ru/gosplan/perechen-obrazovatelnyx-organizacij

6. Ignatova O. Rosstat soobshchil o roste chislennosti trudosposobnogo naseleniya [Rosstat Reported an Increase in the Working-age Population]. Rossiyskaya gazeta — Federal’nyy vypusk, 2022, no 93(8741), available at: https://rg.ru/2022/04/27/rosstat-soobshchil-o-roste-chislennosti-trudosposobnogo-naseleniia.html

DOI: 10.33917/es-5.191.2023.38-53

Demographic situation largely determines the strategic prospects of our country in the context of fierce multifactorial competition between various countries of the world and their bilateral and multilateral alliances. The ar ticle examines dynamics of the Russian population trends, individual causes of male excess mor tality, the main factors for increasing the birth rate and also provides a quantitative assessment of the ef fectiveness of some of the above. To assess the consequences an agent-based demographic model of Russia was used and a sof tware package, developed jointly with researchers from China, was applied to make a long-term forecast of our country’s population.

References:

1. Putin zayavil, chto rossiyan dolzhno byt’ bol’she, i oni dolzhny byt’ zdorovy [Putin Said that there Should be More Russians, and they Should be Healthy].TASS, 2022, 9 iyunya, available at: https://tass.ru/obschestvo/14871349

2. Asel’ Gereikhanova. Vladimir Putin poruchil v 2023 godu dobit’sya rosta zarplat, rozhdaemosti i prodolzhitel’nosti zhizni [Vladimir Putin Instructed to Achieve an Increase in Wages, birth Rates and Life Expectancy in 2023]. Rossiiskaya gazeta, 2023, 29 yanvarya, available at: https://rg.ru/2023/01/29/zadachidlia-razvitiia.html

3. Demografiya [Demography]. Rosstat, available at: https://rosstat.gov.ru/folder/12781

4. Andreev E. M., Darskii L. E., Khar’kova T. L. Naselenie Sovetskogo Soyuza: 1922–1991 [Population of the Soviet Union: 1922–1991]. Moscow, Nauka, 1993.

5. Rosstat [Website], available at: https://rosstat.gov.ru

6. Makarov V. L., Il’in N. I., Bakhtizin A. R., Khabriev B. R. Natsional’naya sila stran mira: otsenka i prognoz [National Strength of the Countries in the World:

Evaluation and Forecast]. Ekonomicheskie strategii, 2022, no 6(186), pp. 38–51, DOI: https://doi.org/10.33917/es-6.186.2022.38-51

7. Vsemirnyi bank [Website], available at: https://data.worldbank.org

8. Uroven’ smertnosti: Sravnitel’naya informatsiya po stranam [Mortality Rates: Comparative Information by Country], available at: https://www.cia.gov/the-world-factbook/field/death-rate/country-comparison

9. Demografiya: Prognoz [Demographics: Forecast], available at: https://www.agents.media/demografia-prognoz

10. Makarov V. L., Nigmatulin R. I., Il’in N. I., Bakhtizin A. R., Sushko E. D., Sidorenko M.Yu. Tsifrovoi dvoinik (iskusstvennoe obshchestvo) sotsial’noekonomicheskoi

sistemy Rossii — platforma dlya eksperimentov v sfere upravleniya demograficheskimi protsessami [The Digital Twin (Artificial Society) of the Socio-Economic System of Russia is a Platform for Experiments in the Field of Managing Demographic Processes]. Ekonomicheskie strategii, 2022, no

2(182), pp. 6–19, DOI: https://doi.org/10.33917/es-2.182.2022.6-19.

11. Chislo rodivshikhsya (bez mertvorozhdennykh) za god [Number of Births (Excluding Stillbirths) per Year]. EMISS. Gosudarstvennaya statistika, available at: https://www.fedstat.ru/indicator/31606

DOI: https://doi.org/10.33917/es-6.180.2021.20-29

Demographic dynamics becomes crucially important for successful scenario of the future for both Eurasian integration and each EAEU member state. The “pandemic crisis” caused an increase in excess mortality, reduced social well-being and created serious legal and managerial conflicts. Within the EAEU new barriers to mobility and migration have emerged and social tension has increased. In the existing realities the current supranational solutions are insufficient, they are poorly focused on achieving the demographic security of the EAEU member states. Coordinated actions are needed to significantly improve the demographic situation in the EAEU.

DOI: 10.33917/es-8.174.2020.44-55

The article examines scenarios of a long-term demographic situation and politics, evolution of the value orientations, the latest approaches to assessing the development sustainability, the dispositional theory of demographic behavior

Calculation data of the multifactorial “Strategic Matrix” model methodology showed stability of the relatively low value of Russia’s integral index. However, just such static character of the calculated indicator means an increase of problems in the Russian society, which is evidently shown by hard decline in social support for the authorities activities. Another reelection of V.V. Putin as the President of Russia did not result in prospects for a way out of the crisis in the minds of Russian citizens.

The author’s analysis of UN demographic statistics revealed two internal problems that objectively impede to the BRICS countries to become new drivers of global economic growth — reduction of economically active population and increase of the social burden on one working person in the form of reducing the potential support ratio. Projected labour shortage could trigger serious socio-economic upheavals in the nearest future.

The authors have studied the possibility of taking into account the human rationality factor in the analysis of global problems of demography and energy. For this purpose, analogues of chemical kinetics and the idea of human communities as an open thermodynamic system were applied. The demography of sapientation was divided into two conventional energy zones — northern and southern, which differ in climatic and geophysical conditions. The sapientation process was formalized by correlating the number of creative and educated people with the amount of external energy they convert into new valuable information. The sapientation kinetics was modeled completing the formalism of the act of a person’s birth with a stage of his education requiring the involvement of at least one teacher from among educated people. The second-order kinetic equation, describing the growth of an equal population of men and women of reproductive age, was transformed into an equation of the third and higher orders. The stationary solution of these equations determines the optimal demography for sustainable noospheric development of the population in accordance with its education index. Real and durable solutions to the demographic and energy problems are proposed.

The article examines the phenomenon of BRICS, which has now acquired a global visibility. The article focuses on the main potential of the BRICS countries — human capital, those demographic resources that, being combined with a growing economy and a standard of living, can break the current picture of the world.

When calculating the final integral index for the Russian Federation, determined according to the methodology of multifactor “Strategic matrix” model, the authors once again noted the low level of this indicator in 2015. It has not changed in comparison with the previous year. But in the factors context they have identified a tendency of compensating the key social indices lowering due to the growth of the secondary ones. Its presence is confirmed by opinion polls of the Public Opinion Foundation, that is, by how the Russians themselves assess changes in their daily life and the state of affairs in solving the problems they face.

Analyzing actual data of the RF subjects social development, the authors note: as follows from calculation data of integral indicators, defined on the basis of the multifactor model methodology “Strategic matrix of the RF region”, developed by the Institute for Economic Strategies, negative economic trends have not yet practically effected the population living conditions. On the contrary, the all-Russian 2014 final index has even slightly increased compared to the previous year index.