DOI: 10.33917/es-5.191.2023.54-63

The Russian economy turned out to be at the forefront of changes occurring in the global economy. Usual paradigms of economic analysis and forecasting are no longer suitable for describing this situation. Macroeconomic indicators in the context of massive redistribution of assets provide an increasingly distor ted picture of the current and strategic advantages of countries and corporations, their economic oppor tunities and risks. The institutional approach, in par ticular the theory of mergers and acquisitions, is becoming more adequate to the present moment. A description of the conflict between Western countries and Russia in its language allows us to see both the mechanisms of transition from its “friendly” absorption in the 1990s to a “hostile” acquisition (essentially, to a raider tak eover in recent years), and new opportunities opening up for Russian economy thanks to a failed at tempt to capture it. Right now, it is impor tant not only to build a policy in order to counter sanctions, but also to formulate new ambitious strategic priorities. This will allow us to tak e advantage of new opportunities in a proper way.

References:

1. Balatskii E.V. Rossiya v epitsentre geopoliticheskoi turbulentnosti: nakoplenie global’nykh protivorechii [Russia in the Epicenter of Geopolitical Turbulence: Accumulation of Global Contradictions]. Ekonomicheskie i sotsial’nye peremeny: fakty, tendentsii, prognoz, 2022, vol. 15, no 4, pp. 42–59, DOI: 10.15838/esc.2022.4.82.3.

2. Doklad Stiglitsa o reforme mezhdunarodnoi valyutno-finansovoi sistemy: uroki global’nogo krizisa [The Stiglitz report Reforming the International Monetary and Financial Systems in the wake of the Global Crisis]. Doklad Komissii finansovykh ekspertov OON. Moscow, Mezhdunarodnye otnosheniya, 2012, 324 p.

3. Glaz’ev S.Yu. Poslednyaya mirovaya voina. SShA nachinayut i proigryvayut [The Last World War. USA Starts and Loses]. Moscow, Knizhnyi mir, 2016.

(Kollektsiya Izborskogo kluba.)

4. Yakovets Yu.V. Global’nyi tsivilizatsionnyi krizis — 2020 — start novoi istoricheskoi epokhi: Nauch. doklad. Prilozhenie. Novaya periodizatsiya istorii i budushchego tsivilizatsii, kapitalizma i sotsializma [Global Civilizational Crisis — 2020 — Beginning of a New Historical Era: Scientific Report. Appendix. New Periodization of History and the Future of Civilizations, Capitalism and Socialism]. Moscow, MISK, 2020.

5. Kotlikoff L., Berns S. Pensionnaya sistema pered burei: To, chto nuzhno znat’ kazhdomu o finansovom budushchem svoei strany [The Pension System Before the Storm: What Everyone Needs to Know About Financial Future of the Own Country]. Moscow, Al’pina biznes buks, 2005, 348 p.

6. Shirov A.A., Porfir’ev B.N., Edinak E.A., et al. Potentsial’nye vozmozhnosti rosta rossiiskoi ekonomiki: analiz i prognoz: Nauch. Doklad [Potential for Growth of the Russian Economy: Analysis and Forecast. Scientific Repor t]. Moscow, Artik Print, 2022, 296 p. (Nauchnyi doklad INP RAN), DOI: 10.47711/sr2-2022.

DOI: 10.33917/es-5.191.2023.6-21

The chronicle of the situation development, which actually came very close to a global military catastrophe, only outwardly looks like a random kaleidoscope of events. Behind the chaos of events, are becoming more evident extremely strict strategic schemes for operating with global power factors in various spheres of activit y: political, military, economic, etc. The article outlines the systemic elements of an approach that considers military conflict in general and Special military operation in particular as a militarized form of struggle for power — an instrument of global economic regulation of economic activit y. This approach makes it possible to focus the key components of Russia’s necessary strategy in the context of a new round of struggle between imperialist predators for the format of systemic and structural redivision of the world that they need.

References:

1. Ageev A.I. Kholodnaya voina — 2.0: realii i perspektivy [Cold War — 2.0: Realities and Prospects]. Ekonomicheskie strategii, 2015, vol. 17, no 2(128), pp. 74–79.

2. Bakhtizin A.R., Makarov V.L., Loginov E.L., Khabriev B.R., Vu Ts., Vu Z. Gibridnye voiny v makroekonomicheskoi supersisteme XXI veka [Hybrid Wars in the Macroeconomic Supersystem of the XXI Century]. Ekonomicheskie strategii, 2023, vol. 25, no 2(188), pp. 6–23, DOI: https://doi.org/10.33917/es-2.188.2023.6–23

3. Ageev A.I., Bakhtizin A.R., Makarov V.L., Loginov E.L., Khabriev B.R. Ekonomicheskii fundament pobedy: strategicheskii prognoz ustoichivosti ekonomiki Rossii v usloviyakh sanktsionnykh atak [Economic Foundation of Victory: a Strategic Forecast for the Russian Economy Stability in the Face of Sanctions]. Ekonomicheskie strategii, 2023, vol. 25, no 3(189), pp. 6–15, DOI: 10.33917/es-3.189.2023.6-15

4. Denisov A.A., Denisova E.V. Kratkii ocherk osnov teorii upravlyaemoi konfrontatsii [Brief Outline of the Theory of Controlled Confrontation]. Informatsionnye voiny, 2014, no 1, pp. 24–33.

5. Ageev A.I., Loginov E.L. Mirovoe soobshchestvo v usloviyakh sverkhkriticheskoi bifurkatsii: Upravlenie slozhnymi organizatsionnymi i tekhnicheskimi sistemami v usloviyakh sverkhkriticheskikh situatsii: Materialy mezhdunarodnoi nauchno-prakticheskoi konferentsii [World Community in Conditions of Supercritical Bifurcation: Management of complex organizational and technical systems in conditions of supercritical situations: Proceedings of the International Scientific and Practical Conference]. Moscow, INES, 2022, pp. 9–12.

6. Ageev A.I., Loginov E.L. Novaya bol’shaya voina: khroniki khorosho zabytogo budushchego [New Large-Scale War: Chronicles of Well Forgotten Future]. Ekonomicheskie strategii, 2014, vol. 16, no 6–7(122–123), pp. 16–33.

7. Ageev A.I., Loginov E.L. Strategicheskaya predopredelennost’ spetsial’nykh voennykh operatsii v mirovoi supersisteme [Strategic Predetermination of Special Military Operations in the World Supersystem]. Ekonomicheskie strategii, 2023, vol. 25, no 4(190), no 6–19, DOI: 10.33917/es-4.190.2023.6-19

DOI: 10.33917/es-4.190.2023.72-77

Conditions prevailing in the Russian economy in 2023 presuppose an increased role of indirect forms of state support for business, where the state acts as a curator, nourishing small businesses with the help of analytical support. An optimal institution for implementing such a support policy is the innovation cluster, due to the formation in the process of “cooperation — competition” of a group of interrelated enterprises that can compete with large companies in innovation markets. Based on the patent analysis, it is shown that Russia has a significant development potential, and innovation clusters should focus on developing those technological areas that are most promising for their target development model.

References:

1. Bychkova O., Gladarev B., Kharkhordin O., Tsinman Zh. Fantasticheskie miry rossiiskogo khai-teka [Fantastic Worlds of Russian High-Tech]. Saint Petersburg, Izd-vo Evropeiskogo universiteta v Sankt-Peterburge, 2019, 416 p.

2. Prirost vysokoproizvoditel’nykh rabochikh mest [Growth of High-Performance Jobs] // Federal’naya sluzhba gosudarstvennoi statistiki, available at: https://rosstat.gov.ru/storage/mediabank/vprm-2017-2021.xls.

3. Kostin S.V. Innovatsionnyi klaster kak institut razvitiya innovatsionnoi ekonomiki Rossii [Innovation Cluster as an Institution for Development of Russia’s Innovation Economy]. Ekonomicheskie strategii, 2022, vol. 24, no 3, pp. 64–69, DOI: https://doi.org/10.33917/es-3.183.2022.64-69.

4. Chang Kha-Dzhun. S”edobnaya ekonomika. Prostoe ob”yasnenie na primerakh mirovoi kukhni [Edible Economy. A Simple Explanation on Examples of World Cuisine]. Moscow, Mann, Ivanov i Ferber, 2023, 337 p.

5. Andrews D., Criscuolo Ch., Gal P. Frontier Firms, Technology Diffusion and Public Policy: Micro Evidence from OECD Countries. OECD Productivity Working Paper, 2015.

6. Grachev I.D., Nekrasov S.A. Opora na natsional’nuyu innovatsionnuyu sistemu kak neobkhodimoe uslovie realizatsii natsional’nykh proektov [Reliance on the National Innovation System as a Necessary Condition for Implementing National Projects]. Vestnik Rossiiskoi akademii nauk, 2020,

vol. 90, vol. 8, pp. 714–725.

7. Kostin S.V. Innovatsionnyi klaster kak institut organizatsii konkurentsii v usloviyakh ekonomicheskoi rekonstruktsii [Innovation Cluster as an Institution for Organizing Competition in the Context of Economic Reconstruction]. Problemy teorii i praktiki upravleniya, 2022, no 4, pp. 140–152.

DOI: https://doi.org/10.33917/es-4.184.2022.56-69

The world has been scared by the collapse of the dollar many times. So far, fears of a global economic collapse, associated with the fate of the dollar, have been greatly exaggerated. However, there are no significant guarantees that this will not happen under certain conditions. Variants of the Atlantic-planned collapse of the dollar with its replacement by a synthetic financial instrument o r digital currency, somehow similar to bitcoin, are possible. COVID-19 has further revealed this problem. Russia needs to abandon its illusions and to be ready to ensure the economic stability of political regime in a special period as manifestation of the world monetary and economic war of all against all at a certain stage of the catastrophe, while waiting for the main actors to agree on joint actions. At the same time, among our geopolitical competing partners, there are a lot of those who want by all means to solve their economic and other problems at the expense of Russia. Therefore,  macroeconomic measures that Russia will have to take in case of a global dollar collapse are very likely to be more severe than the scenario that the authors formulated in this article.

Источники:

1. Makarov V.L., Bakhtizin A.R., Il’in N.I., Sushko E.D. Natsional’naya bezopasnost’ Rossii [National Security of Russia]. Ekonomicheskie strategii, 2020, no 5, pp. 6–23, available at: DOI: 10.33917/es-5.171.2020.6-23.

2. Ageev A.I., Loginov E.L. Coronavirus superstrategy: mirovaya proektsiya finansovoi modeli catastrophe just-in-time dlya vykhoda iz krizisa na novuyu geoekonomicheskuyu normal’nost’ [Coronavirus Superstrategy: Global Projection of the “Just-in-time Catastrophe’s” Financial Model for Overcoming the Crisis and Entering into a New Geo-Economic Normality]. Ekonomicheskie strategii, 2020, no 4, pp. 6–19, available at: DOI: 10.33917/es-4.170.2020.6-19.

3. Na poroge monetarnoi kul’minatsii [On the Brink of a Monetary Climax]. Livejournal, Spydell, 2021, August, 25, available at: https://spydell.livejournal.com/699002.html.

4. Fiskal’nyi ad [Fiscal Hell]. Livejournal, Spydell, 2021, April, 21, available at: https://spydell.livejournal.com/698446.html.

5. Ageev A.I., Loginov E.L. New Deal – 2008 — “novaya sdacha”. Bludnye ucheniki Franklina Ruzvel’ta [“New Deal” – 2008. Lost Followers of Franklin Roosevelt]. Ekonomicheskie strategii, 2009, no 2, pp. 30–37

6. Ageev A.I., Loginov E.L. Formirovanie novoi modeli valyutno-finansovoi politiki pri upravlenii natsional’nymi zolotovalyutnymi rezervami Rossii [Forming a New Model of Monetary Policy while Managing the National Foreign Exchange Reserves of Russia]. Ekonomicheskie strategii, 2016,

no 3, no 8–15.

7. Ageev A.I., Loginov E.L. Institutsional’nye mekhanizmy snizheniya mul’tifaktornykh riskov dlya valyutno-finansovoi sistemy Rossii i EAES v usloviyakh nelineinoi ekonomicheskoi dinamiki [Institutional Mechanisms for Reducing Multifactor Risks for Monetary-financial System of Russia and the EAEU in the Context of Nonlinear Economic Dynamics]. Monografiya. Moscow, Institut ekonomicheskikh strategii, 2017.

DOI: https://doi.org/10.33917/es-3.183.2022.64-69

Supply support policy, which is becoming more and more relevant in Europe and America due to overheated demand, is also relevant for Russia. At the same time, active growth of the state’s information capabilities can be used to mutually coordinate the goals of social and economic development under condition of the focus on integrated development of the innovation environment and in case when the innovation cluster is the optimal institution. First of all, it forms the structure of innovative industry with a wide layer of small and medium-sized businesses, reducing transaction costs. Secondly, the combination of competition and cooperation in a cluster is especially advantageous in the innovation culture of Russia, which is distinguished by the intrinsic value of mastery and innovative community. Thirdly, the cluster makes possible to resolve a conflict between digital platforms and local economy, using the advantages of digitalization and localization to meet mutual interests that contributes to the public welfare growth.

Источники:

1. Obzor mezhdunarodnoi praktiki podderzhki ekonomiki i naseleniya v usloviyakh bor’by s pandemiei koronavirusa v Armenii, Velikobritanii, Germanii, Danii, Ispanii, Italii, Kazakhstane, Kitae, Niderlandakh, SShA, Finlyandii, Frantsii, Shvetsii, Yuzhnoi Koree, Yaponii [Review of International Practice of Supporting the Economy and the Population in the Context of Fighting the Coronavirus Pandemic in Armenia, Great Britain, Germany, Denmark, Spain, Italy, Kazakhstan, China, Netherlands, USA, Finland, France, Sweden, South Korea, Japan], available at: https://isp.hse.ru/data/2020/04/29/1544579194/COVID-19_stimulus%20packages_countries260420.pdf.

2. Cochrane J.D. The Revenge of Supply. Project Syndicate, available at: https://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/supply-shortages-inflation-result-ofgovernment-policies-by-john-h-cochrane-2021-10.

3. Makhalina O.M., Makhalin V.N. Svoevremennye i adekvatnye mery po podderzhke ekonomiki i naseleniya Rossii v period pandemii [Timely and Adequate Measures to Support the Economy and Population of Russia During the Pandemic]. Vestnik RGGU. (Seriya: Ekonomika. Upravlenie. Pravo), 2021, no 1, pp. 56–70.

4. Vlasova V., Roud V. Cooperative Strategies in the Age of Open Innovation: Choice of Partners, Geography and Duration. Foresight and STI Governance, 2020, vol. 14, no 4, pp. 80–94, DOI: 10.17323/2500-2597.2020.4.80.94.

5. Bator F.M. Fine Tuning. In: Eatwell J., Milgate M., Newman P. (eds) The World of Economics. The New Palgrave, Palgrave Macmillan, London, 1991, available at: https://doi.org/10.1007/978-1-349-21315-3_35.

6. Minski Kh. Stabiliziruya nestabil’nuyu ekonomiku [Stabilizing Unstable Economy]. Moscow, Saint-Petersburg, Izd-vo Instituta Gaidara, fakul’tet svobodnykh iskusstv i nauk SPbGU, 2017, 624 p.

7. Berdin A.E., Berdina M. Regional’nye osobennosti razvitiya osobykh ekonomicheskikh zon. Na primere stran latinoamerikanskogo regiona [Regional Specific Features of Development of Special Economic Zones. On the Example of the Latin American Countries]. Latinskaya Amerika, 2021, no 3, pp. 33–54.

DOI: 10.33917/mic-2.103.2022.91-97

Economic security is a complex system, since it includes all aspects of management aimed at preventing crises and bankruptcies, as well as other negative phenomena that affect the stability of the state of any economic entity. At the same time, a significant role of economic security belongs to state institutions, which, like commercial ones, conduct their activities in the conditions of instability of the external environment. The article provides a comprehensive analysis of the features of economic security in state institutions, examines the tools that ensure it, identifies the areas of security and their impact on the functioning of modern state institutions. It is concluded that public institutions need to effectively build the system under consideration, which includes personnel, financial, resource and information components.

DOI: 10.33917/mic-1.102.2022.55-65

The article is devoted to the analysis and forecasting of the institutional structure of the furniture market in Russia, taking into account the theory of economic dominance in a multilevel economy. It is shown that despite the conservative changes in the market, a stable hierarchy of companies has quickly developed on it, which determines the architecture and logic of its development in the medium term. The article examines in detail the situation in the Russian furniture market in 2020, which arose under the influence of the current epidemiological and economic situation. In the context of the groups described in this theory, the factors that furniture companies had to face depending on their size, market position and organizational structure are shown, the prospects for their development are assessed and general recommendations are given for each group. Identification of the key market players and comparison of the institutional strength of its participants belonging to different levels of the hierarchy makes it possible to form scenarios for its development and build appropriate forecasts for the development of this sector of the economy. Particular attention is paid to the relationship between the structure and key players in the furniture market and the housing construction market. It is shown that there is a potential for mutual strengthening of the institutional strength of the key players in both markets, but so far it has been implemented to a weak degree. These relationships are expected to strengthen in the coming years.

References:

1. Blokhin A.A. Institutional rent in a multilevel economy // Problems of forecasting. 2019;4:16-26. (In Russ.).

2. Blokhin A.A., Lomakin-Rumyantsev I.V., Naumov S.A. Alfa-business in the Russian food market // Economic strategies. 2019;6:68-77. (In Russ.).

3. Vertogradov V.A. Market strategies of alpha, beta, gamma in the context of the theory of economic dominance // Economic strategies. 2020;2:50-53. (In Russ.).

4. Studnikov C.C. Higher education in Russia: the heyday of economic dominance // The world of the new economy. 2021;1:112-120. (In Russ.).

5. Mertsalova A., Shchurenkov N., Kostyrev A. The shavings were removed from the furniture // newspaper «Kommersant», No. 221 of 2.12.2020. URL: https://www.kommersant.ru/doc/4594631

6. RBC Market Research. Furniture retail chains, 2019. URL: https://marketing.rbc.ru/research/issue/64188

7. Mauborn Rene, Kim Chan V. The strategy of the Blue Ocean. How to find or create a market free of other players. Publisher: Mann, Ivanov and Ferber, 2020. 336 p. (In Russ.).

8. Fligstin N. Architecture of markets: economic sociology of capitalist societies of the XXI century / translated from English by A. A. Kurakin; edited by V.V. Radaev; National. research. un-t «Higher School of Economics». Moscow: Publishing House of the Higher School of Economics, 2013. 392 p. URL: https://publications.hse.ru/books/94309661

9. Blokhin A.A., Sternik S.G., Teleshev G.V. Institutional transformations of housing construction in 2020 // Problems of forecasting. 2021;2(185):43-55. (In Russ.).

In the scientific article the mechanism of anti-recessionary management on which basis are generated strategic alliances the enterprises on an example of an industrial complex is offered.

DOI: 10.33917/es-4.170.2020.120-125

Changing of a conjuncture index of “Economic strategy” (CIES) for the first four months of 2020 is considered. The contribution of indicators of supply and demand in CIES is estimated. The analysis of industrial production is carried out

DOI: 10.33917/es-4.170.2020.6-19

The world is changing rapidly and irreversibly. The critical value of accumulated macroeconomic imbalances requires radical managerial decisions. As a solution to the problem, catastrophe just-in-time was chosen — preparation and implementation of key extreme events aimed at fundamentally reformatting the global economic management structure with achieving a new global investment and financial cycle based on massive issue of US dollars. The classical model of transforming global crises into the format of phased global financial iterations has now been augmented with a new strategic tool — the coronavirus. The result of implementing the coronavirus superstrategy, which was similar in power to the third world war and successfully replaced it, is the shift in key macroeconomic determinants. The USA once again postponed financial collapse for 10–15 years. Dimension of the financial special operation is unprecedented in terms of resources, territorial scales and depth of impact: former key players voluntarily sacrifice their identity for the opportunity to remain on the Great Chessboard at least in the form of pawns. The other countries’ claims to world leadership have been completely removed. For Russia, unlike most countries — geo-economic competitors, coronavirus reality became a marker confirming the Great Power status. Elaboration of a strategy for the economic development of Russia in relation to new conditions is on the agenda