DOI: 10.33917/es-1.199.2025.34-43

The author explores and compares relationship between the energy industry and economic growth of China and Russia through the cointegration equation and the VECM model. The results prove that China’s energy production hasn’t got any long-term or short-term impact on GDP fluctuations and growth, while oil and natural gas consumption has a long-term impact on GDP growth, coal and natural gas consumption has a short-term positive impact on GDP growth. Energy production and consumption in Russia have an impact on GDP growth. Production of renewable energy, coal and natural gas as well as consumption of coal and natural gas have long-term equilibrium effects on GDP growth, while production of coal and natural gas as well as consumption of coal, oil and natural gas cause short-term positive fluctuations in GDP growth.

References:

1. Kraft J., Kraft A. On the Relationship Between Energy and GNP. The Journal of Energy and Development, 1978, no 3(2), pp. 401–403, available at: http://www.jstor.org/stable/24806805

2. Yu E., Choi J.Y. The Causal Relationship between Energy and GNP: An International Comparison. Journal of Energy Finance & Development, 1985, no 10, pp. 249–272.

3. Kuzovkin A.I. Prognoz energoemkosti VVP Rossii i razvitykh stran na 2020 g. [Forecast of Energy Intensity of GDP in Russia and Developed Countries for 2020]. Problemy prognozirovaniya, 2010, no 3, pp. 144–148.

4. Wang Xuhui, Liu Yong. China’s energy consumption and economic growth: based on cointegration analysis and Granger causality test. Resources Science, 2007, no 29(5), p. 6.

5. Lola I.S., Gluzdovskiy S.V. Primenenie metodov vektornoy avtoregressii v issledovanii vliyaniya malogo roznichnogo predprinimatel’stva na dinamiku torgovli [Application of Vector Autoregression Methods in the Study of the Impact of Small Retail Businesses on Trade Dynamics]. Voprosy statistiki, 2018, vol. 25, no 11, pp. 3–12, EDN VNBZMD

6. Matveev M.G. Parametricheskaya identifikatsiya modeley vektornoy avtoregressii [Parametric Identification of Vector Autoregression Models]. Sovremennaya ekonomika: problemy i resheniya, 2015, no 5, pp. 133–142, available at: ht tps://journals.vsu.ru/meps/article/view/4347

7. Yue Xiaowen. Restoration of oil and gas industry: A review of Russia’s oil and gas industry in 2021. International Petroleum Economics, 2022, no 30(5), pp. 47–52.

8. Hou Meifang. The current situation, challenges and countermeasures of China’s energy transformation and energy security under the goal of carbon neutrality. Journal of Southwest Petroleum University (Natural Science Edition), 2023, no 45(2): 1-1, DOI: 10.11885/j.issn.1674-5086.2023.01.12.02

DOI: 10.33917/es-6.198.2024.16-25

Trump has become the US president. It doesn’t matter anymore what role the sympathies of voters, political technologies or a well-known force action played. Inviolability of the Atlantic spells about the dominance of democracy has been refuted by the harsh realities of world politics and economics. Vector of the global attack has been determined – China. Is there a chance of success if it has revealed not possible to achieve the goals set with Russia? How will Russia act in the new situation? Who and how will be able to form new, more harmonious foundations of the world order? Is the BRICS+++ group capable of this task?”.

References:

1. Sibileva E.A. Zachem lyudi plachut: o prirode slez [Why People Cry: On the Nature of Tears]. MedAboutMe. URL: https://medaboutme.ru/articles/zachem_lyudi_plachut_o_prirode_slez/

2. Ageev A.I., Loginov E.L. KOMBINATORIKA VTOROGO TRAMPA: Pokushenie. Chast’ I. Geostrategiya [SECOND TRUMP COMBINATORICS: Assassination Attempt. Part I. Geostrategy]. Ekonomicheskie strategii, 2024, vol. 26, no 4(196), pp. 18–25, DOI: https://doi.org/10.33917/es-4.196.2024.18-25

3. Ageev A.I. Rol’ sanktsiy, konfliktov i spetsoperatsiy: razmyshleniya o budushchem. Chast’ 2 [The Role of Sanctions, Conflicts and Special Operations: Reflections on the Future. Part 2]. Nauchnyy vestnik oboronno-promyshlennogo kompleksa Rossii, 2024, no 1, pp. 33–42.

4. Teoriya i strategiya stanovleniya ustoychivogo mnogopolyarnogo miroustroystva na baze partnerstva tsivilizatsiy (Yaltinskogo mira – 2): Vol. 1. Nauchnye osnovy stanovleniya ustoychivogo mnogopolyarnogo miroustroystva i Bol’shogo evraziyskogo partnerstva [Theory and Strategy for Forming a Sustainable Multipolar World Order Based on the Partnership of Civilizations (Yalta Peace – 2): Vol. 1. Scientific Foundations for the Development of a Sustainable Multipolar World Order and the Greater Eurasian Partnership]. Monografiya. Sost. i nauch. red. Yu.V. Yakovets, A.A. Akaev, S.Yu. Malkov. Moscow, MISK — INES, 2020, 816 p.

5. Ageev A.I., Bakhtizin A.R., Makarov V.L., Loginov E.L., Khabriev B.R. Ekonomicheskiy fundament pobedy: strategicheskiy prognoz ustoychivosti ekonomiki Rossii v usloviyakh sanktsionnykh atak [Economic Foundation of Victory: a Strategic Forecast for the Russian Economy Stability in the Face of Sanctions]. Ekonomicheskie strategii, 2023, vol. 25, no 3(189), pp. 6–15. DOI: https://doi.org/10.33917/es-3.189.2023.6-15

6. Ageev A.I., Loginov E.L. Strategicheskaya predopredelennost’ spetsial’nykh voennykh operatsiy v mirovoy supersisteme [Strategic Predetermination of Special Military Operations in the World Supersystem]. Ekonomicheskie strategii, 2023, vol. 25, no 4(190), pp. 6–19, DOI: https://doi.org/10.33917/es-4.190.2023.6-19

7. Loginov E.L. Tsifrovye tekhnologii politicheskoy bor’by: neyrosetevye imperativy informatsionnogo protivodeystviya popytkam perekhvata upravleniya v sotsial’no-politicheskoy srede [Digital Technologies of Political Struggle: Neural Network Imperatives of Information Counteraction to Attempts at Interception of Control in the Socio-Political Environment]. Moscow, Rusayns, 2024, 234 p.

DOI: 10.33917/mic-4.117.2024.5-17

In the United States and China, in conditions of preparing for a major war, there is an intensive restructuring of not only the armed forces, but also the industry that provides military needs. The key trend is the development and implementation of civil-military merger strategies. The Russian experience in conducting Special Military Operation, including an analysis of NATO’s problems with providing equipment and weapons to Russia’s real and potential military opponents and countering these processes by the Russian defence industry, has actualized the problem of developing a new approach to organizational and strategic engineering in the Russian defence and civil industries and scientific-technical sector.

References:

1. Ageev A.I., Loginov E.L. Russia in the new economic reality. Moscow, INES, 2016. 460 p.

2. Ageev A.I. Dynamics and structure of global risks. Civil defense strategy: problems and research. 2013;3(2(5)):7–8.

3. Ageev A.I., Bakhtizin A.R., Makarov V.L., Loginov E.L., Khabriev B.R. Economic Foundation of Victory: a Strategic Forecast for the Russian Economy Stability in the Face of Sanctions. Economic strategies. 2023;25(3(189)):6–15. DOI: https://doi.org/10.33917/es-3.189.2023.6-15

4. Ivanov S. US military innovation. Infrastructure and projects. Mirtesen, 2021, September 15. URL:  https://s30116489994.mirtesen.ru/blog/43322544035/Voennyie-innovatsii-SSHA-Infrastruktura-i-proektyi

5. Kokoshin A.A. Military reform in China in 2015–2020: defense and foreign policy aspects. Moscow, ISPI RAN, 2016. pp. 39.

6. Ageev A.I., Kapustyan S.G., Korobkin V.V. State and forecast expectations for the development of the global robotics market. Artificial Intelligence. Theory and Practice. 2023;3(3):50–58.

7. Grabchak E.P., Loginov E.L., Chinaliev V.U., Epishkin I.I. Management of the development of complex scientific and technical complexes based on intelligent digital platforms (implementation of the competencies of the USSR State Committee for Science and Technology in the digital economy). Moscow, Institute of Economic Strategies, 2023. 504 p.

8. Ageev A.I., Loginov E.L., Efremov D.N. The State committee for Scientific-Technical Policy: center of network concentration of Scientific-Technical Ties in Key Knowledge Areas for Integrated management in the Science and engineering field. Economic strategies. 2014;16(8(124)):12–21.

9. Grabchak E.P., Loginov E.L. Management of research, power engineering and electric power companies as elements of an integrated industrial technological complex: Instrument making in the 21st century – 2020. Integration of science, education and production: Sat. materials of the XVI All-Russian Scientific and Technical Conference. Izhevsk: Izhevsk State Technical University named after M.T. Kalashnikov, 2020. pp. 16–21.

10. Grabchak E.P., Loginov E.L. Formation of an integrated information environment for digital support of life cycle management processes of scientific and technical research and development in the Russian electric power industry: Modern information technologies. Theory and practice: Materials of the V All-Russian Scientific and Practical Conference. Cherepovets: Cherepovets State University, 2020. pp. 32–35.

DOI: 10.33917/es-3.189.2023.6-15

Key parameters of attacks directions on the Russian economy and forecasts of the expected results, which previously have inspired confidence in Western states that political regime would inevitability fall, which stimulated the US and EU sanctions activity, were developed by a number of authoritative Western expert structures. Western strategies for collapsing the Russian economy in 2022–2023 with the help of sanctions, formed on the basis of these forecasts, did not bring the desired result. At the same time, alternative forecasts of a group of Russian scientists from the CEMI RAS and their Chinese colleagues on stability of the economies of Russia and China in the event of a friendly policy in the context of trade wars with the US and the EU, made in 2019, were fully confirmed. At the core of these forecasts there are analytical tools based on agent modeling.

References:

1. Ageev A.I., Loginov E.L. Mirovoe soobshchestvo v usloviyakh sverkhkriticheskoi bifurkatsii Upravlenie slozhnymi organizatsionnymi i tekhnicheskimi sistemami v usloviyakh sverkhkriticheskikh situatsii: Materialy mezhdunarodnoi nauchno-prakticheskoi konferentsii [World Community in Conditions of Supercritical Bifurcation: Management of Complex Organizational and Technical Systems in Conditions of Supercritical Situations: Proceedings of the international scientific and practical conference]. Moscow, INES, 2022, pp. 9–12.

2. Ageev A.I., Loginov E.L. Novaya bol’shaya voina: khroniki khorosho zabytogo budushchego [New Large-Scale War: Chronicles of Well Forgotten Future]. Ekonomicheskie strategii, 2014, vol. 16, no 6–7(122–123), pp. 16–33.

3. Makarov V.L., Vu Ts., Vu Z., Khabriev B.R., Bakhtizin A.R. Mirovye torgovye voiny: stsenarnye raschety posledstvii [World Trade Wars: Scenario Calculations of Consequences]. Vestnik Rossiiskoi akademii nauk, 2020, vol. 90, no 2, pp. 169–179.

4. Makarov V.L., Vu Ts., Vu Z., Khabriev B.R., Bakhtizin A.R. Sovremennye instrumenty otsenki posledstvii mirovykh torgovykh voin [Modern Tools for Assessing the Effects of World Trade Wars]. Vestnik Rossiiskoi akademii nauk, 2019, vol. 89, no 7, pp. 745–754.

5. Tsigas M., McDaniel C., Schropp S., Mahlstein K. Potential economic effects of sanctions on Russia: An Allied trade embargo. Voxeu.org, 2022, available at: https://voxeu.org/article/potential-economic-effects-allied-trade-embargo-russia.

6. Mahlstein K., McDaniel C., Schropp S., Tsigas M. Estimating the economic effects of sanctions on Russia: An Allied trade embargo. The World Economy, 2022, no 45, pp. 3344–3383, available at: https://doi.org/10.1111/twec.13311.

7. Bryan R., Johnson G., Sytsma T., Priebe M. Does the U.S. Economy Benefit from U.S. Alliances and Forward Military Presence? Santa Monica, CA: RAND Corporation, 2022, available at: https://www.rand.org/pubs/research_reports/RRA739-5.

8. Bolhuis A. Marijn, Jiaqian Chen, Benjamin Kett. Fragmentation in Global Trade: Accounting for Commodities. IMF Working Paper. 2023. No. WP 23/73.

DOI: https://doi.org/10.33917/es-1.181.2022.72-79

The article is devoted to the analysis of the specifics of the business international expansion of large Chinese state-owned companies in the oil and gas sector: China National Oil and Gas Corporation (CNPC), China Petrochemical Corporation (SINOPEC), China National Offshore Oil Corporation (CNOOC). The article examines the strategic guidelines of the companies, the factors influencing the strategies, formats and forms of expansion, regional specifics of business internationalization, trends in the development of activities in foreign markets. The problems of specialization and business diversification of the studied companies are considered. Special attention is paid to the role of the state in the processes of international expansion of Chinese oil and gas companies.

Источники:

1. Bhattacharyya S. China and the Global Energy Crisis: Development and Prospects for China’s Oil and Natural Gas. International Journal of Energy Sector Management, 2017, Vol. 1, N 2, pp. 56–61.

2. Shell sells shale stake to China. International Gas Report, 2012, February, 13.

3. PetroChina snaps up remainder of AOSC’s MacKay River project. The Oil and Gas Journal, 2018, January, 16, pp. 71–75.

4. Devon and Sinopec team up for five-play venture. Upstream, 2019, January, 6, pp. 32–37.

5. Neftyanaya i neftepererabatyvayushchaya promyshlennost’ Kitaya [Oil and Refining Industry in China]. TsDU TEK, 2020, March, 30, available at: http://www.cdu.ru/tek_russia/articles/1/725/

6. Ghemawat P. Strategy and the Business Landscape. 3rd ed., Prentice Hall, 2010.

DOI: https://doi.org/10.33917/es-2.176.2021.6-15

Increased interest in China is due not only to its successes in combating the pandemic — the PRC is the only major country in the world that has managed to maintain a positive economic growth dynamics. Moreover, more than 40 years of successful reforms certainly make the Chinese experience deserving special attention and study. The present article analyzes the spatial development of China over the past decades, which in addition to a component purely economically measured by percentage of GDP growth of the country and individual regions, has got important social, demographic, cultural, historical and ethnic components

DOI: 10.33917/es-1.175.2021.136-141

The article examines the problem of emergence in East Asia of a regional trading center (hub) for liquefied natural gas (LNG) with its own independent price index, which can become the basis for pricing in long-term contracts for supplying gas to the countries of this region. The author identifies the main factors stimulating Asian players in the gas market to pass to a new pricing system while signing gas purchase contracts. The countries — the main candidates for creating their own LNG hub — are considered. The article analyzes current situation and the prospects for developing regional LNG hubs in such countries as China, Japan and Singapore.

The paper also identifies the main obstacles to creating developed exchange trade of LNG in the Asia-Pacific countries and estimates the most likely places for the emergence of a gas hub.

DOI: 10.33917/es-1.175.2021.50-61

In China, the strategy for the national information infrastructure development is implementing a large-scale and unparalleled project for developing artificial intelligence and its application to solving critical problems. Threats and risks of the current stage left no choice to China. The best Soviet and Russian developments of centralized planning and modeling are actively used, advanced American experience in applying neuroinformation technologies to influence society is being adopted. In fact, a neuroinformational mega-matrix is being formed, which will allow the Chinese authorities to keep the seething mass of people and organizations within a controlled circuit. Configuring cognitive communications in the socio-technical system “person — infocommunication environment — the state” allows to develop a social credit model for forming behavior vectors in large groups of the population with culling disloyal in behaviour (implemented now) and disloyal in thinking (soon to be implemented) human units of the China-community

DOI: 10.33917/es-3.169.2020.56-65

Regular meeting of the Bogomolov Club, held at the Institute for Economic Strategies on January 28, 2020, was dedicated to the issues of trade and economic war between the USA and China. The keynote address was delivered by the famous Russian sinologist, Doctor of Economics, Professor, Director of the Center for Social and Economic Research of China at the RAS Institute of the Far East, member of the Russian Association of Sinologists, the European Association of Chinese Studies Andrey V. Ostrovsky.

The article contains the author’s summary on the 2018 Chengdu Global Think Tanks Forum (China) with the active participation of the Russian delegation and a critical review of the events and a number of reports within the event framework. The purpose of this paper is to analyze the role and capabilities of the think tanks created by the BRICS countries, to identify the benefits and threats of global governance, as well as to promote the results of research activities initiated and realized by scientists and experts from countries with developing, emerging and transforming markets.