DOI: 10.33917/mic-4.117.2024.27-38

The article analyzes the global economic forecasts for 2024–2025 developed by the World Bank, the IMF, and the OECD. According to the May OECD report, one of the risks to economic development may be an acceleration of inflation in developed countries. In the United States, annual inflation accelerated to 3,5% in March 2024, compared to 3,2% in February. And the US Federal Reserve is ready to postpone the interest rate cut until November 2024. The IMF forecast for Russian GDP growth in 2024 has been improved to 3,2%, but reduced to 1,8% for 2025. For the United States, GDP growth is projected to be 2,1% in 2024, and 1,7% for 2025.

References:

1. Chugunov Artem. The Economy of Developing Overheating. The World Bank Shares the Position of the Bank of Russia on the Nature of Inflation in the Russian Federation. 04/15/2024. URL: https://www.kommersant.ru/doc/6648521

2. World Bank. 2024. Global Economic Prospects. January. Washington, DC: World Bank. URL: https://openknowledge.worldbank.org/server/api/core/bitstreams/7fe97e0a-52c5-4655-9207-c176eb9fb66a/content

3. Borovikova Kristina. Developing Economies Are Becoming More Attached to Developed Ones. Monitoring the World Economy. 05.04.2024. URL: https://www.kommersant.ru/doc/6622054

4. Borovikova Kristina. The Grounds for a Global Slowdown Are Being Selected. OECD expects moderate growth in 2024. 06.02.2024. URL: https://www.kommersant.ru/doc/6493747

5. Edovina Tatyana. Global fun. The IMF has raised its forecasts for the global and Russian economies. 30.01.2024. URL: https://www.kommersant.ru/doc/6479601

6. Today’s number. Inflation in the OECD in 2023. 08.02.2024. URL: https://www.kommersant.ru/doc/6495212

7. Borovikova Kristina. The global economy has received additional growth. The OECD has cautiously improved its global GDP forecast. 02.05.2024. URL: https://www.kommersant.ru/doc/6680489

8. OECD Economic Outlook, May 2024. URL: https://www.oecd.org/economic-outlook/may-2024/

9. Elvira Nabiullina’s press conference: increase in the key rate, peak inflation. Key points. URL: https://www.kommersant.ru/doc/6760711

DOI: 10.33917/mic-6.113.2023.76-88

Forecasts are given for 2023–2028 global demand for oil and energy, as well as real GDP growth by region of the world. The linear regression models developed by the authors and graphs of the relationship between the annual growth rate of global GDP and the annual growth rate of global oil and energy demand are presented.

According to the authors, the fight against inflation by the US Federal Reserve and the Central Bank of Europe through raising interest rates leads to a decrease in investment and a decrease in the growth rate of GDP in the US and Europe.

References: 

1. «Prospects for the development of the world economy».  World Bank report dated June 05,2023. URL:  https://www.vsemirnyjbank.org/ru/publication/global- economic-prospects

2. The Central Bank kept the key rate at 7,5%

for the fifth time in a row. KOMMERSANT dated04/28/2023. URL: https://www.kommersant.ru/doc/5955429

3. The economy is reaching a plateau. GDP monitoring. KOMMERSANT dated 08/04/2023.

URL: https://www.kommersant.ru/doc/6138316

4. EDB macro forecast 2023–2025: economic growth forecast has been improved for all countries in the region. URL: https://eabr.org/press/releases/makroprognoz-eabr-2023–2025-prognozekonomicheskogo-rosta- uluchshen-dlya-vsekhstran-regiona/

5. IEA «Oil 2023 Analysis and forecast to 2028». June 2023. URL: https://www.iea.org/reports/oil-2023

6. IEA «World Energy Outlook 2022». URL:

https://iea.blob.core.windows.net/assets/830fe099–5530–48f2-a7c1–11f35d510983/WorldEnergyOutlook2022.pdf

DOI: 10.33917/mic-4.111.2023.69-72

An analysis is given of significant changes in the export of energy resources from Russia, taking into account the global economic recession and the warm winter in Europe in comparison with 2022. It is noted that in 2023 there was a sharp change in the export flows of oil and gas from Europe to Asia (China and India), after the introduction of the EU price ceiling for Russian oil. Europe has switched to coal for power plants and buying more expensive LNG from the US instead of Russian gas.

References: 

1. Novak A. Energy policy of Russia: turn to the East // Energy policy, June 08, 2023. URL: https://energypolicy.ru/energeticheskaya-politika-rossii-razvorot-na-vostok/business/2023/14/08 /

2. Oil market, OPEC+, new markets and gasification // Neftegaz.RU. URL: https://neftegaz.ru/news/transport-and-storage/780860-neftyanoy-rynok-opek-novye-rynki-i-gazifikatsiya-a-novak-oboznachil-energeticheskie-perspektivy-ross/

The article analyzes the development of the economy and the consumption of energy resources for the coming years in Russia and abroad. The role of energy resources in the growth of prices in 2022 in the EU countries is shown. An increase in the export of energy resources from Russia to Asia (China, India) was noted, with a significant decrease in oil and gas supplies to Europe. The impact of the Russian oil price ceiling on the budget in 2023 is assessed. The results of the Davos Forum in January 2023 are analyzed.

References:

1. Alifirova E. A. Novak: oil production in Russia in 2022 will grow by 2%, gas – will fall by 18-20%. URL: https://neftegaz.ru/news/finance/763968-a-novak-dobycha-nefti-v-rossii-v-2022-g-vyrastet-na-2-gaza-upadet-na-18-20/

2. Decree of the President of the Russian Federation of December 27, 2022 No. 961 «On the application of special economic measures in the fuel and energy sector in connection with the establishment by some foreign states of the maximum price for Russian oil and oil products». – Access from the information and legal system «Garant».

3. Alifirova E. The Russian budget in January 2023 received less than 52.1 billion rubles. oil and gas revenues. URL: https://neftegaz.ru/news/finance/768980-rossiyskiy-byudzhet-v-yanvare-2023-g-nedopoluchil-52-1-mlrd-rub-neftegazovykh-dokhodov/

4. Viktorov V. LNG is exported on a record // Radio «Kommersant FM» dated December 7, 2022. URL: https://www.kommersant.ru/doc/5707622

5. Edovina T. Gas occupies the provided volume. URL: https://www.kommersant.ru/doc/5594179

6. Urvachev L. The dollar fell below 68 rubles, the euro – below 73 rubles. URL: https://www.kommersant.ru/doc/5760848

7. Babkin D. The West did not have enough ceiling. URL: https://www.kommersant.ru/doc/5760224

8. The IMF has revised forecasts for GDP dynamics in the world and in Russia // Kommersant dated 10/11/2022. URL: https://www.kommersant.ru/doc/5607636

9. Borovikova K. Davos ended with a discussion of the shaky prospects for the global economy // Kommersant, 2023. URL: https://www.kommersant.ru/doc/5782786

10. Kuzovkin A.I. Climate, the role of fuel and renewable energy sources. Microeconomics. 2022;3:28-37. (In Russ.).

DOI: 10.33917/mic-5.106.2022.69-78

The situation with unstable gas supply and energy supply in the EU has become more complicated in connection with the start of the military special operation of the Russian Federation in Ukraine, which has dramatically changed the situation with the energy supply in Europe. The EU predicts to reduce the consumption of Russian gas, while experiencing a shortage of gas.

Germany could use Nord Stream 2 gas, as former German Chancellor Gerhard Schroeder called for in early August this year after his visit to Moscow. This step would solve Germany’s gas supply problems for a long period. However, the EU and Germany previously refused to use Nord Stream 2 for political reasons.

The situation changed radically when, on September 26, 2022, a sabotage was committed on the Nord Stream 1 and Nord Stream 2 gas pipelines, as a result of which sections of gas pipes were torn off near the island of Bornholm (Denmark). As a result, one billion m3 of gas flows out of the pipes. Repair of ruptured pipes can take several months. Europe will remain in autumn and winter without Russian gas.

LNG will not be able to replace Russian gas due to the limited number of points for its reception, as well as the rise in the cost of LNG by 20-30% compared to pipeline Russian gas. In addition, until 2030, EU LNG imports will be limited due to insufficient LNG production capacities in the US and the world, as well as Asian countries’ competition in LNG consumption.

References:

1. Bloomfield H.C., Brayshaw D.J., Troccoli A., Goodess C.M., De Felice M., Dubus L., Bett P.E., Saint-Drenan Y.-M. Quantifying the sensitivity of european power systems to energy scenarios and climate change projections, Renewable Energy, Volume 164, February 2021. pp. 1062-1075.

2. Frank Ch., Fiedler S., Crewell S. Balancing potential of natural variability and extremes in photovoltaic and wind energy production for European countries, Renewable Energy, Volume 163, January 2021. pp. 674-684.

3. Wang S., Tarroja B., Schell L., Samuelsen S. Determining cost-optimal approaches for managing excess renewable electricity in decarbonized electricity systems, Renewable Energy, Volume 178, November 2021. pp. 1187-1197.

4. Umerenkov E. There is gas, but not for you. URL: https://www.kp.ru/daily/27289/4427398/

5. Tikhonov S. Lost in prohibitions // Rossiyskaya Gazeta. August 11, 2022. P. 5. (In Russ.).

6. Alifirova E. New IEA forecast. URL: https://neftegaz.ru/news/finance/742705-novye-prognozy-mea-sokrashchenie-mirovogo-sprosa-na-gaz-v-2022-g-padenie-rossiyskikh-postavok-v-evro/

7. International Energy Agency (IEA) Quarterly Gas Market Report, July 5, 2022 (Gas Market Report, Q2-2022 including Global Gas Review 2021). URL: https://iea.blob.core.windows.net/assets/cfd2441e-cd24-413f-bc9f-eb5ab7d82076/GasMarketReport%2CQ2-2022.pdf

8. Smil V. The use of fossil fuels has increased by 20% since the beginning of the century // Vedomosti. June 02, 2022. (In Russ.).

9. Kuzovkin A.I. Climate, the role of fuel and renewable energy sources. Microeconomics. 2022;3:28-37. (In Russ.).