DOI: 10.33917/es-5.197.2024.14-21

The most important conditions for socio-economic development of countries in the «era of globalization» are now rapidly turning into barriers. On the contrary, what was previously considered a burdensome cost to the national economy now can become a factor in generating benefits, including the economic ones. Macroeconomic targets begin to «lose» to fundamental political economic values. In such circumstances, the priority of economic policy becomes not a quantitative economic growth or nominal inflation and unemployment indicators, but a technological «leap» potential. The article problematizes the dominant paradigm of a global socio-economic development and outlines the contours of its alternative. This alternative, according to the authors, is capable to become a conceptual basis for global leadership in the 21st century.

References:

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DOI: 10.33917/es-6.192.2023.6-15

Today there is virtually no doubt that the 21st century will become a time of struggle for global economic leadership. The USA and China have already entered into this intense competition. Russia is also demonstrating signs of geopolitical subjectivity. However, its economic potential is still significantly lower than that of both the USA and China. Therefore, the present article raises the question of the factors for building up such potential in accordance with current technological challenges. The authors formulate and justify the factors for spreading promising general-purpose technologies in the national economy. They provide an assessment of the presence and scale of each factor’s influence in the modern Russian economy, and also outline ways for strengthening such influence in order to create the most favourable conditions for introduction and scaling of advanced technologies in the industrial sector of the Russian Federation.

References:

1. Tolkachev S.A., Teplyakov A.Yu. Tekhnologicheskie i regulyatornye tsikly v mirokhozyaystvennom razvitii: istoriko-ekonomicheskaya retrospektiva [Technological and Regulatory Cycles in World Economic Development: Historical and Economic Retrospective]. Terra Economicus, 2022, vol 20, no 3, pp. 72–86.

2. Tolkachev S.A., Teplyakov A.Yu. Tekhnologicheskiy megatsikl i tekhnologicheskie prognozy [Technological Megacycle and Technological Forecasts]. Ekonomicheskie strategii, 2022, vol. 24, no 6(186), pp. 66–75, DOI: https://doi.org/10.33917/es-6.186.2022.66-75

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Dynamics of the Monetization Coefficient of the Russian Economy and Its Influence on Macroeconomic Indicators]. Vestnik universiteta, 2022, no 9, pp. 145–152.

DOI: https://doi.org/10.33917/es-6.186.2022.66-75

Technological forecasts are intended to serve as a guide for business and government authorities. However, post factum they often demonstrate a low instrumental value. The authors propose to use the technological megacycle concept as a methodological “framework” for forming technological forecasts. The article provides empirical evidence of the expediency of such approach in long-term forecasting.

References:

1. Tolkachev S.A., Teplyakov A.Yu. Kontseptsiya otraslevogo rasprostraneniya bazisnykh tekhnologii: novyi tekhnologicheskii megatsikl [Concept of Sectoral Proliferation of Basic Technologies: a New Technological Megacycle]. Ekonomist, 2020, no 1, pp. 25–35.

2. Tolkachev S.A., Teplyakov A.Yu. Tekhnologicheskii megatsikl i promyshlennaya politika [Technological Megacycle and Industrial Policy]. Ekonomist, 2021, no 1, pp. 43–54.

3. Tolkachev S.A., Teplyakov A.Yu. Strategicheskoe planirovanie i promyshlennaya politika na sovremennom etape tsiklicheskogo mirokhozyaistvennogo razvitiya [Strategic Planning and Industrial Policy at the Current Stage of the Cyclic World Economic Development]. Ekonomicheskie strategii, 2022, vol. 24, no 1(181), pp. 40–51, DOI: https://doi.org/10.33917/es-1.181.2022.40-51.

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DOI: https://doi.org/10.33917/es-1.181.2022.40-51

The article substantiates appropriateness of the network industrial policy to technological and socio-economic challenges of the modern era of the VI technological order (the second stage of the third technological megacycle). Given the fact that at the present stage technological and sectoral priorities of the national economic development can be formulated more clearly (compared to the previous stage of the technological megacycle), one of the key elements of industrial policy is strategic planning. It is concluded that in Russia since the 2000s there has been a process of establishing a national system of strategic planning, accelerated after the 2014 events. At the same time, its contradictory nature is shown, which determines the low effectiveness of the strategic documents implementation. This, in its turn, significantly reduces the probability that in the XXI century Russia would be able to become one of the world economic leaders.

Источники:

1. Tolkachev S.A., Teplyakov A.Yu. Kontseptsiya otraslevogo rasprostraneniya bazisnykh tekhnologii: novyi tekhnologicheskii megatsikl [The Concept of Sectoral Diffusion of Basic Technologies: New Technological Megacycle]. Ekonomist, 2020, no 1, pp. 25–35.

2. Tolkachev S.A., Teplyakov A.Yu. Tekhnologicheskii megatsikl i promyshlennaya politika [Technological Megacycle and Industrial Policy]. Ekonomist, 2021, no 1, pp. 43–54.

3. Glaz’ev S.Yu. Mirokhozyaistvennye uklady v global’nom ekonomicheskom razvitii [World Economic Orders in Global Economic Development]. Ekonomika i matematicheskie metody, 2016, no 2, pp. 3–29.

4. Aivazov A.E., Belikov V.A., Romanova A. Evolyutsiya mirovoi denezhno-valyutnoi sistemy v protsesse smeny mirokhozyaistvennykh ukladov [Evolution of the World Monetary System in the Process of Changing World Economic Orders]. Ekonomist, 2019, no 7, pp. 40–53.

5. Tolkachev S.A., Teplyakov A.Yu. Kontseptsiya tsiklicheskoi posledovatel’nosti rasprostraneniya bazisnykh tekhnologii v ekonomike i ontologicheskaya obuslovlennost’ teorii industrial’nogo obshchestva [The Concept of Cyclic Sequence of the Basic Technologies Diffusion in the Economy and Ontological Conditionality of the Industrial Society Theories]. Ekonomicheskoe vozrozhdenie Rossii, 2019, no 4, pp. 19–36.

6. Tolkachev S.A. Setevaya promyshlennaya politika v epokhu novoi industrial’noi revolyutsii [Network Industrial Policy in the Era of the New Industrial Revolution]. Zhurnal NEA, 2018, no 3, pp. 155–162.

7. Kontseptsiya sotsial’no-ekonomicheskogo razvitiya Rossii do 2020 goda [The Concept of Socio-economic Development of Russia until 2020]. Konsul’tantPlyus, available at: http://www.consultant.ru/document/cons_doc_LAW_82134/28c7f9e359e8af09d7244d8033c66928fa27e527/

8. Strategiya-2020, available at: http://2020strategy.ru/

9. Kontseptsiya razvitiya Rossii do 2020 goda okazalas’ nevypolnimoi. Pochemu razoshlis’ traektorii natsional’nykh tselei 2008 goda i fakticheskogo razvitiya strany [The Concept of Russia’s Development until 2020 Turned Out to be Unfeasible. Why Trajectories of the National Goals of 2008 and of Actual Development of the Country have Diverged]. RBK, 2019, November, 2, available at: https://www.rbc.ru/economics/02/11/2019/5db946fb9a794742bc0d5b68.

Global Value Chains (GVCs) are currently the main theoretical concept for analyzing globalization processes in the sphere of industrial production and the object for perfecting the foreign economic policy of each country. Traditions and schools of studying GVCs, that have developed in the world community, can be divided into macrostructural, united under the general title of “internationalism”, and cluster ones, that are forming the “industrialism” trend. Referring to the problem of Russian-Belarusian industrial cooperation in the course of neoindustrialization and formation of new GVCs, macrostructural approach turns out to be completely unproductive for a number of reasons, therefore the authors of the article, considering the programs of Russian-Belarusian cooperation, follow the cluster approach.