DOI: 10.33917/es-6.198.2024.26-35

In the first part of this article, the authors proposed to consider productivism as a new paradigm of socio-economic development. It, advocating for supply-side economic measures, not feeling piet y towards international markets and calling for protectionism, is intended to replace the intellectually bankrupt paradigm of neoliberalism that dominated the world at the turn of the 20th and 21st centuries. Such “paradigm shif t” is necessary to ensure theoretically a “technological leap” — the key to global economic leadership in the 21st century. Previously, the authors have developed factors for the national economy transition to a new technological level. In this ar ticle, they will receive a quantitative assessment, which will allow to determine the ordinal probability of technological transition for the world’s leading countries. The proposed methodological approach will make it possible to position the Russian economy in these processes, as well as to identif y barriers hindering its economic development, and outline prospects for overcoming these barriers.

References:

[1] — [26] no 5/2024, pp. 20–21.

27. Belousov D.R., Sal’nikov V.A., et al. Ekonomika-2040: ot novykh usloviy — k novym deystviyam: kratkaya versiya doklada (kontseptual’naya chast’): Proekt Gorizont-2040 [Economy-2040: from New Conditions to New Actions: a Short Version of the Report (Conceptual Part): Project Horizon-2040]. TsMAKP, 2023, 28 dekabrya, available at: http://www.forecast.ru/_ARCHIVE/Presentations/DBelousov/2023_12_ecoshortfin.pdf

28. World Economic Forum. The Global Risks Report’2024. World Economic Forum, available at: https://www.weforum.org/publications/global-risks-report-2024/

29. Gross domestic product 2022, PPP. World Development Indicators database. World Bank, 1 July 2023, available at: https://databankfiles.worldbank.org/public/ddpext_download/GDP_PPP.pdf

30. Kobyakov A.B., Khazin M.L. Zakat imperii dollara i konets “Pax Americana” [The Decline of the Dollar Empire and the End of Pax Americana]. Moscow, Veche, 2003.

31. Irkhin A.A. Mir gotov razvalit’sya na neskol’ko makroregionov [The World is Ready to Fall Apart into Several Macro-regions]. Sluzhba novostey ForPost, 2020, 9 aprelya, available at: https://sevastopol.su/news/mir-gotov-razvalitsya-na-neskolko-makroregionov

32. Teplyakov A.Yu., Tolkachev S.A. Rossiyskaya Federatsiya v geoekonomicheskoy dueli XXI veka [Russian Federation in the Geo-Economic Duel of the 21^st Century]. Ekonomicheskie strategii, 2023, no 6, pp. 6–15, DOI: https://doi.org/10.33917/es-6.192.2023.6-15

33. The Leisure Gains from International Trade. IMF, 2024, available at: https://www.imf.org/en/Publications/WP/Issues/2024/01/19/The-Leisure-Gains-from-International-Trade-543871

34. Protsentnaya sistema. Trading Economics, available at: https://ru.tradingeconomics.com/country-list/interest-rate

35. Main Economic Indicators. Vol. 2023, iss. 12, available at: https://www.oecd-ilibrary.org/economics/main-economic-indicators/volume-2023/issue-12_ded67b87-en

DOI: 10.33917/es-5.197.2024.14-21

The most important conditions for socio-economic development of countries in the «era of globalization» are now rapidly turning into barriers. On the contrary, what was previously considered a burdensome cost to the national economy now can become a factor in generating benefits, including the economic ones. Macroeconomic targets begin to «lose» to fundamental political economic values. In such circumstances, the priority of economic policy becomes not a quantitative economic growth or nominal inflation and unemployment indicators, but a technological «leap» potential. The article problematizes the dominant paradigm of a global socio-economic development and outlines the contours of its alternative. This alternative, according to the authors, is capable to become a conceptual basis for global leadership in the 21st century.

References:

1. Who Cares Wins, 2004–08: Issue Brief. International Finance Corporation, available at: https://documents1.worldbank.org/curated/en/444801491483640669/ pdf/113850-BRI-IFC-Breif-whocares-PUBLIC.pdf

2. Arkhipova I., et al. Kak izmenilas’ ESG-povestka v novykh usloviyakh [How the ESG Agenda has Changed in the New Conditions]. Strategicheskie proekty. Novosti, 2023, 17 aprelya, available at: https://stratpro.hse.ru/social-policy/news/828220184.html

3. Ageev A.I., Bakhtizin A.R., Makarov V.L., Loginov E.L., Khabriev B.R. Ekonomicheskiy fundament pobedy: strategicheskiy prognoz ustoychivosti ekonomiki Rossii v usloviyakh sanktsionnykh atak [Economic Foundation of Victory: a Strategic Forecast for the Russian Economy Stability in the Face of Sanctions]. Ekonomicheskie strategii, 2023, no 3, pp. 6–15, DOI: https://doi.org/10.33917/es-3.189.2023.6-15

4. Lindsi Grem prizval NATO isklyuchat’ strany s nizkimi voennymi raskhodami [Lindsey Graham Calls on NATO to Exclude Countries with Low Military Spending]. RBK, 2024, 19 fevralya, available at: https://www.rbc.ru/rbcfreenews/65d275019a7947938d431365

5. Belousov E. CNN: Rossiya proizvodit vtroe bol’she boepripasov, chem Zapad mozhet dat’ Ukraine [CNN: Russia Produces Three Times More Ammunition than the West can Give Ukraine]. Kommersant”, 2024, 11 marta, available at: https://www.kommersant.ru/doc/6561870

6. Pol’sha i Vengriya proigrali v sude po isku o mnogomilliardnykh dotatsiyakh ES [Poland and Hungary Lose Court Case over Multi-billion EU Subsidies]. Vedomosti, 2022, 16 fevralya, available at: https://www.vedomosti.ru/politics/news/2022/02/16/909624-polsha-i-vengriya-proigrali-v-sude

7. Remarks by President Biden on Bidenomics (Chicago, IL). The White House, June 28, 2023, available at: https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefing-room/ speeches-remarks/2023/06/28/remarks-by-president-biden-on-bidenomics-chicago-il/

8. Tolkachev S.A. Protivorechiya politicheskoy ekonomii “baydenomiki” [The Contradictions of the Political Economy of “Bidenomics”]. Voprosy politicheskoy ekonomii, 2023, no 4, pp. 55–75.

9. Remarks by National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan on Renewing American Economic Leadership at the Brookings Institution. The White House. April 27, 2024, available at: https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefing-room/speeches-remarks/2023/04/27/remarks-by-national-security-advisor-jake-sullivan-onrenewing-american-economic-leadership-at-the-brookings-institution/

DOI: 10.33917/es-6.192.2023.6-15

Today there is virtually no doubt that the 21st century will become a time of struggle for global economic leadership. The USA and China have already entered into this intense competition. Russia is also demonstrating signs of geopolitical subjectivity. However, its economic potential is still significantly lower than that of both the USA and China. Therefore, the present article raises the question of the factors for building up such potential in accordance with current technological challenges. The authors formulate and justify the factors for spreading promising general-purpose technologies in the national economy. They provide an assessment of the presence and scale of each factor’s influence in the modern Russian economy, and also outline ways for strengthening such influence in order to create the most favourable conditions for introduction and scaling of advanced technologies in the industrial sector of the Russian Federation.

References:

1. Tolkachev S.A., Teplyakov A.Yu. Tekhnologicheskie i regulyatornye tsikly v mirokhozyaystvennom razvitii: istoriko-ekonomicheskaya retrospektiva [Technological and Regulatory Cycles in World Economic Development: Historical and Economic Retrospective]. Terra Economicus, 2022, vol 20, no 3, pp. 72–86.

2. Tolkachev S.A., Teplyakov A.Yu. Tekhnologicheskiy megatsikl i tekhnologicheskie prognozy [Technological Megacycle and Technological Forecasts]. Ekonomicheskie strategii, 2022, vol. 24, no 6(186), pp. 66–75, DOI: https://doi.org/10.33917/es-6.186.2022.66-75

3. Marks K. Kapital. Kritika politicheskoy ekonomii [Capital. Criticism of Political Economy]. Marxists.org, vol. 1, available at: https://www.marxists.org/russkij/marx/1867/capital_vol1/59.htm

4. Khiks Dzh. Teoriya ekonomicheskoy istorii [Theory of Economic History]. Per. s angl. pod obshch. red. R.M. Nureeva. Moscow, 2003.

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6. Nechvolodov A.V. Ot razoreniya k dostatku [From Ruin to Prosperity]. Saint Petersburg, Tipografiya shtaba voysk Gvardii i Peterburgskogo voennogo okruga,1906.

7. Katasonov V. K ocherednomu yubileyu amerikanskogo Tsentrobanka [To the Next Anniversary of the American Central Bank]. Fond strategicheskoy kul’tury, 2023, 4 yanvarya, available at: https://fondsk.ru/news/2023/01/04/k-ocherednomu-jubileju-amerikanskogo-centrobanka.html

8. Neftedollary protiv gazorubley [Petrodollars Versus Gas Rubles]. Kommersant”, 2022, 15 aprelya, available at: https://www.kommersant.ru/doc/5305376

9. Berdyshev A.V., Sopov D.K. Issledovanie dinamiki koeffitsienta monetizatsii ekonomiki Rossii i ego vliyaniya na makroekonomicheskie pokazateli [Study of the

Dynamics of the Monetization Coefficient of the Russian Economy and Its Influence on Macroeconomic Indicators]. Vestnik universiteta, 2022, no 9, pp. 145–152.

DOI: https://doi.org/10.33917/es-6.186.2022.66-75

Technological forecasts are intended to serve as a guide for business and government authorities. However, post factum they often demonstrate a low instrumental value. The authors propose to use the technological megacycle concept as a methodological “framework” for forming technological forecasts. The article provides empirical evidence of the expediency of such approach in long-term forecasting.

References:

1. Tolkachev S.A., Teplyakov A.Yu. Kontseptsiya otraslevogo rasprostraneniya bazisnykh tekhnologii: novyi tekhnologicheskii megatsikl [Concept of Sectoral Proliferation of Basic Technologies: a New Technological Megacycle]. Ekonomist, 2020, no 1, pp. 25–35.

2. Tolkachev S.A., Teplyakov A.Yu. Tekhnologicheskii megatsikl i promyshlennaya politika [Technological Megacycle and Industrial Policy]. Ekonomist, 2021, no 1, pp. 43–54.

3. Tolkachev S.A., Teplyakov A.Yu. Strategicheskoe planirovanie i promyshlennaya politika na sovremennom etape tsiklicheskogo mirokhozyaistvennogo razvitiya [Strategic Planning and Industrial Policy at the Current Stage of the Cyclic World Economic Development]. Ekonomicheskie strategii, 2022, vol. 24, no 1(181), pp. 40–51, DOI: https://doi.org/10.33917/es-1.181.2022.40-51.

4. Knyazev Yu.K. O tekhnologicheskikh tsiklakh v mirovoi ekonomike [On Technological Cycles in the Global Economy]. Obshchestvo i ekonomika, 2022, no 4, pp. 6, 7.

5. Glazkova V.V. Funktsionirovanie i razvitie sistemy teplosnabzheniya v Rossii v usloviyakh smeny energeticheskogo uklada [Functioning and Development of the Heat Supply System in Russia in the Context of Changing Energy Patterns]. E-Management, 2022, vol 5, no 2, pp. 23, 24.

6. Bresnahan T.F., Trajtenberg M. General Purpose Technologies: “Engines of Growth”? Journal of Econometrics, 1995, vol. 65, no 1, pp. 83–108.

7. Glaz’ev S.Yu. Mirokhozyaistvennye uklady v global’nom ekonomicheskom razvitii [World Economic Structures in Global Economic Development]. Ekonomika i matematicheskie metody, 2016, vol 52, no 2, pp. 3–29.

8. Aivazov A.E., Belikov V.A. Formirovanie integral’nogo mirokhozyaistvennogo uklada — budushchee mirovoi ekonomiki [Formation of an Integral World Economic Order is the Future of the Global Economy]. Ekonomicheskaya nauka sovremennoi Rossii, 2017, no 1(76), pp. 7–21.

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14. Technology and Innovation Report 2021. UNCTAD, 2021.

DOI: https://doi.org/10.33917/es-1.181.2022.40-51

The article substantiates appropriateness of the network industrial policy to technological and socio-economic challenges of the modern era of the VI technological order (the second stage of the third technological megacycle). Given the fact that at the present stage technological and sectoral priorities of the national economic development can be formulated more clearly (compared to the previous stage of the technological megacycle), one of the key elements of industrial policy is strategic planning. It is concluded that in Russia since the 2000s there has been a process of establishing a national system of strategic planning, accelerated after the 2014 events. At the same time, its contradictory nature is shown, which determines the low effectiveness of the strategic documents implementation. This, in its turn, significantly reduces the probability that in the XXI century Russia would be able to become one of the world economic leaders.

Источники:

1. Tolkachev S.A., Teplyakov A.Yu. Kontseptsiya otraslevogo rasprostraneniya bazisnykh tekhnologii: novyi tekhnologicheskii megatsikl [The Concept of Sectoral Diffusion of Basic Technologies: New Technological Megacycle]. Ekonomist, 2020, no 1, pp. 25–35.

2. Tolkachev S.A., Teplyakov A.Yu. Tekhnologicheskii megatsikl i promyshlennaya politika [Technological Megacycle and Industrial Policy]. Ekonomist, 2021, no 1, pp. 43–54.

3. Glaz’ev S.Yu. Mirokhozyaistvennye uklady v global’nom ekonomicheskom razvitii [World Economic Orders in Global Economic Development]. Ekonomika i matematicheskie metody, 2016, no 2, pp. 3–29.

4. Aivazov A.E., Belikov V.A., Romanova A. Evolyutsiya mirovoi denezhno-valyutnoi sistemy v protsesse smeny mirokhozyaistvennykh ukladov [Evolution of the World Monetary System in the Process of Changing World Economic Orders]. Ekonomist, 2019, no 7, pp. 40–53.

5. Tolkachev S.A., Teplyakov A.Yu. Kontseptsiya tsiklicheskoi posledovatel’nosti rasprostraneniya bazisnykh tekhnologii v ekonomike i ontologicheskaya obuslovlennost’ teorii industrial’nogo obshchestva [The Concept of Cyclic Sequence of the Basic Technologies Diffusion in the Economy and Ontological Conditionality of the Industrial Society Theories]. Ekonomicheskoe vozrozhdenie Rossii, 2019, no 4, pp. 19–36.

6. Tolkachev S.A. Setevaya promyshlennaya politika v epokhu novoi industrial’noi revolyutsii [Network Industrial Policy in the Era of the New Industrial Revolution]. Zhurnal NEA, 2018, no 3, pp. 155–162.

7. Kontseptsiya sotsial’no-ekonomicheskogo razvitiya Rossii do 2020 goda [The Concept of Socio-economic Development of Russia until 2020]. Konsul’tantPlyus, available at: http://www.consultant.ru/document/cons_doc_LAW_82134/28c7f9e359e8af09d7244d8033c66928fa27e527/

8. Strategiya-2020, available at: http://2020strategy.ru/

9. Kontseptsiya razvitiya Rossii do 2020 goda okazalas’ nevypolnimoi. Pochemu razoshlis’ traektorii natsional’nykh tselei 2008 goda i fakticheskogo razvitiya strany [The Concept of Russia’s Development until 2020 Turned Out to be Unfeasible. Why Trajectories of the National Goals of 2008 and of Actual Development of the Country have Diverged]. RBK, 2019, November, 2, available at: https://www.rbc.ru/economics/02/11/2019/5db946fb9a794742bc0d5b68.

Global Value Chains (GVCs) are currently the main theoretical concept for analyzing globalization processes in the sphere of industrial production and the object for perfecting the foreign economic policy of each country. Traditions and schools of studying GVCs, that have developed in the world community, can be divided into macrostructural, united under the general title of “internationalism”, and cluster ones, that are forming the “industrialism” trend. Referring to the problem of Russian-Belarusian industrial cooperation in the course of neoindustrialization and formation of new GVCs, macrostructural approach turns out to be completely unproductive for a number of reasons, therefore the authors of the article, considering the programs of Russian-Belarusian cooperation, follow the cluster approach.