DOI: 10.33917/es-1.187.2023.16-25

Forecasting the ruble exchange dynamics appears objectively necessary for shaping both the medium-term financial strategy of industry corporations and the general strategic course for occupying leading positions in sectors of business interest, including through the use of new financial instruments, new markets and, in general, a system of strategic planning of socio-economic development of Russia. However, in today’s realities, according to most experts, with whom we cannot but agree, the task of forecasting seems extremely difficult and appears complicated by the fact that the launched crises are unpredictable and are characterized by a diverse nature (pandemic and geopolitical crises, expansion of trade wars and sanctions). In such conditions, when uncertainty grows excessively, it is important to turn to the accumulated experience: to analyze to what extent the available models can be suitable for prospective assessments in the current environment.

References:

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DOI: https://doi.org/10.33917/es-6.186.2022.16-25

Forecasting the ruble exchange dynamics appears objectively necessary for shaping both the medium-term financial strategy of industry corporations and the general strategic course for occupying leading positions in sectors of business interest, including through the use of new financial instruments, new markets and, in general, a system of strategic planning of socio-economic development of Russia. However, in today’s realities, according to most experts, with whom we cannot but agree, the task of forecasting seems extremely difficult and appears complicated by the fact that the launched crises are unpredictable and are characterized by a diverse nature (pandemic and geopolitical crises, expansion of trade wars and sanctions). In such conditions, when uncertainty grows excessively, it is important to turn to the accumulated experience: to analyze to what extent the available models can be suitable for prospective assessments in the current environment.

References:

1. Kuranov G.O. Metodicheskie voprosy kratkosrochnoi otsenki i prognoza makroekonomicheskikh pokazatelei [Methodological Issues of Short-Term Assessment and Forecast of Macroeconomic Indicators]. Voprosy statistiki, 2018, no 25(2), pp. 3–24.

2. Frenkel’ A.A., Volkova N.N., Surkov A.A., Romanyuk E.I. Sravnitel’nyi analiz modifitsirovannykh metodov Greindzhera — Ramanatkhana i Beitsa — Greindzhera dlya postroeniya ob”edinennogo prognoza dinamiki ekonomicheskikh pokazatelei [Comparative Analysis of Modified Granger-Ramanathan and Bates-Granger Methods for Developing a Combined Forecast of Economic Indicators Dynamics]. Voprosy statistiki, 2019, no 26(8), pp. 14–27.

3. Shirov A.A. Makrostrukturnyi analiz i prognozirovanie v sovremennykh usloviyakh razvitiya ekonomiki [Macrostructural Analysis and Forecasting under Current Conditions of Economic Development]. Problemy prognozirovaniya, 2022, no 5, pp. 43–57.

4. Dmitrieva M.V., Suetin S.N. Modelirovanie dinamiki ravnovesnykh valyutnykh kursov [Simulating the Dynamics of Equilibrium Exchange Rates]. Vestnik KIGIT, 2012, no 12–2(30), pp. 061–064.

5. Linkevich E.F. Mirovaya valyutnaya sistema: poliinstrumental’nyi standart [World Monetary System: Polyinstrumental Standard]. Krasnodar, 2014, pp. 82–91.

6. Ageev A.I., Loginov E.L. Izmenenie strategii operirovaniya dollarom: zapusk SShA novogo kreditno-investitsionnogo tsikla vo vzaimosvyazi s valyutnymi voinami [Changing the Strategy of Dollar Handling: US Launch of New Credit-Investment Cycle in Association with the Currency Wars]. Ekonomicheskie strategii, 2015, no 3(129), pp. 20–35.

7. Fedorova E.A., Lazarev M.P. Vliyanie tseny na neft’ na finansovyi rynok Rossii v krizisnyi period [Impact of Oil Prices on the Financial Market of Russia During the Crisis]. Finansy i kredit, 2014, № 20(596), pp. 14–22.

8. Kuz’min A.Yu. Valyutnye kursy: v poiskakh strategicheskogo ravnovesiya [Exchange Rates: in Search of Strategic Equilibrium]. Ekonomicheskie strategii, 2018, no 1, pp. 82–91.

DOI: https://doi.org/10.33917/es-5.179.2021.66-72

Team success at the Olympic Games is a combination of material, demographic and cultural factors with non-material factors — will, fighting spirit, passion, patriotism. Exactly the same combination of factors determines the ability of a state to wage a war. Therefore, military capabilities of the state (as well as economic and technological ones), according to the author, can be assessed by results at the Olympic Games.

DOI: https://doi.org/10.33917/es-4.178.2021.76-91

It wouldn’t be too exaggerated to say that today, in the second year of the coronavirus infodemic, we live in a world designed by the Club of Rome. Moreover, here we can speak of “negative geoplanetary architecture”: the Club of Rome did not expand and complicate the current reality, but sought to limit it, to remove some of its significant elements, thereby completely changing not only the structure of the world, but also the paradigm of human existence. And the Club of Rome has succeeded in this, though it is still not clear — for better or for the worse, whether the club acted as an independent actor or as an agent of some forces interested in redistributing world financial flows? Or even acted as a Marxist “historical necessity”. In any case, it has influenced the thinking of intellectuals, economists and politicians of three generations

There is much in common between the concepts of “technological order”, “engineering approach”, “mode of production”, “development phase”, “socio-economic formation”. In all cases we are talking about identifying certain successive stages of the civilization evolution, at that analysis is based on the production process. If such a study is retrospective, it undoubtedly refers to Marxist historiosophy and represents a meaningful attempt to give meaning to history. If the analysis has got promising, prognostic character, if it draws new ways of developing society and discusses other types of resources and other geography of conflicts, we are no longer dealing with history and philosophy, but with politics, with the struggle for redistributing markets and highly likely war.

In the process of development, the scientific (natural philosophy, Baconian) perception paradigm faces at least two cognitive limits, the first of which is due to insufficient dimension of human thinking, its inability to accommodate all scientific knowledge (Leibnitz limit), and the second is related to internal paradox and latent groundlessness of the paradigm itself.

According to a number of leading Russian experts in the field of strategy designing and forecasting, in Ust-Kachka they managed to organize the work of the “factory of the new generation thought”. Combination of conceptual, strategic and event levels when considering, not only the predictive assembly by the PEST directions, but also joining into the matrix by the levels “World” – “Country” – “Region” allowed to provide a very high percentage of coincidences between forecast and the fact. Economic Strategies magazine considers it necessary to get acquainted its readers with the results of Ust-Kachka – 2018.

Soon we’ll celebrate the 100th anniversary from the end of the First World War. To a large extent this war is still considered as a political, not a historical event, but it is already far enough in the past and can become the subject of an impartial research. In the present situation, of particular interest are the details of unleashing the war and specifics of its institutionalization, that is, its turning into a bloody conflict for years, the cost of which — in human lives, in money terms, and in social deformations — has repeatedly exceeded the value of disputed territories and assets. The authors are interested in a slightly different problem, though closely related to the above-mentioned: mechanisms of changing military and political leaders who demonstrated their inadequacy in wartime conditions.

An attempt to establish a rule of law in Russia resulted in creation of a very complicated and inefficient legal system. Some Russian laws have a Soviet, if not earlier, origin, others are related to international and foreign law, yet others are the fruit of the State Duma thinking activity, still others are composed by executive authority or even its separate branches, since regional and local legislation also exists. In this paper, the authors analyze Russian legislation applying the “communal conception” of laws, that is without making a formal distinction between properly laws and normative acts that are in force throughout the whole territory of the Russian Federation and binding for execution.

In the basis of modern globalized science there is the science itself, and it is postulated that it is objective, law-abiding (discursive), is the only correct, last, final method of cognition, hasn’t got a civilizational, cultural, linguistic or national component. But if the world is too complicated for single-focus control, then the Universe must be too complicated for single-focal cognition. Then globalized science, considered as the only possible format of cognition, creates a number of unacceptable risks at the level of humanity, as it fixes very narrow range of possible development scenarios. Therefore, it is necessary to create a description of the science dependencies, to answer the question of how language, cultural codes, civilizational preferences, national character and national interests are reflected in methodology of science, directions and paces of its development, how these social determinants fit into the scientific cognition results and where they are contained in these results.