DOI: 10.33917/es-1.187.2023.16-25

Forecasting the ruble exchange dynamics appears objectively necessary for shaping both the medium-term financial strategy of industry corporations and the general strategic course for occupying leading positions in sectors of business interest, including through the use of new financial instruments, new markets and, in general, a system of strategic planning of socio-economic development of Russia. However, in today’s realities, according to most experts, with whom we cannot but agree, the task of forecasting seems extremely difficult and appears complicated by the fact that the launched crises are unpredictable and are characterized by a diverse nature (pandemic and geopolitical crises, expansion of trade wars and sanctions). In such conditions, when uncertainty grows excessively, it is important to turn to the accumulated experience: to analyze to what extent the available models can be suitable for prospective assessments in the current environment.

References:

16. Ageev A.I., Glaz’ev S.Yu., Mityaev D.A., Zolotareva O.A., Pereslegin S.B. Postroenie modeli prognoza kursa valyut na dolgosrochnom i kratkosrochnom gorizontakh [Building a Model for Forecasting the Exchange Rate on the Long-term and Short-term Horizons]. Ekonomicheskie strategii, 2022, no 6 (186), pp. 16–25, available at: DOI: https://doi.org/10.33917/es-6.186.2022.16-25.

17. Dubrova T.A. Analiz vremennykh dannykh [Time Data Analysis]. Analiz dannykh. Moscow, Yurait, 2019, pp. 397–459.

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DOI: 10.26794/2587-5671-2020-24-1-14-23.

20. Mhitaryan S.V., Danchenok L.A. Prognozirovanie prodazh s pomoshch’yu adaptivnyh statisticheskih metodov [Sales Forecasting with the Help of Adaptive Statistical Methods]. Fundamental’nye issledovaniya, 2014, no 9-4, pp. 818–822.

21. Pilyugina A.V., Bojko A.A. Ispol’zovanie modelej ARIMA dlya prognozirovaniya valyutnogo kursa [Using ARIMA Models for Exchange Rate Forecasting]. Prikaspijskij zhurnal: upravlenie i vysokie tekhnologii, 2015, no 4, pp. 249-267.

22. Ruppert D., Matteson D.S. Statistics and Data Analysis for Financial Engineering. Springer, 2015, available at: https://link.springer.com/book/10.1007%2F978-1-4939-2614-5.

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24. Maniatis P. Forecasting the Exchange Rate Between Euro And USD: Probabilistic Approach Versus ARIMA And Exponential Smoothing Techniques. Journal of Applied Business Research (JABR), 2012, no 28(2), pp. 171–192, available at: https://doi.org/10.19030/jabr.v28i2.6840.

DOI: https://doi.org/10.33917/es-6.186.2022.16-25

Forecasting the ruble exchange dynamics appears objectively necessary for shaping both the medium-term financial strategy of industry corporations and the general strategic course for occupying leading positions in sectors of business interest, including through the use of new financial instruments, new markets and, in general, a system of strategic planning of socio-economic development of Russia. However, in today’s realities, according to most experts, with whom we cannot but agree, the task of forecasting seems extremely difficult and appears complicated by the fact that the launched crises are unpredictable and are characterized by a diverse nature (pandemic and geopolitical crises, expansion of trade wars and sanctions). In such conditions, when uncertainty grows excessively, it is important to turn to the accumulated experience: to analyze to what extent the available models can be suitable for prospective assessments in the current environment.

References:

1. Kuranov G.O. Metodicheskie voprosy kratkosrochnoi otsenki i prognoza makroekonomicheskikh pokazatelei [Methodological Issues of Short-Term Assessment and Forecast of Macroeconomic Indicators]. Voprosy statistiki, 2018, no 25(2), pp. 3–24.

2. Frenkel’ A.A., Volkova N.N., Surkov A.A., Romanyuk E.I. Sravnitel’nyi analiz modifitsirovannykh metodov Greindzhera — Ramanatkhana i Beitsa — Greindzhera dlya postroeniya ob”edinennogo prognoza dinamiki ekonomicheskikh pokazatelei [Comparative Analysis of Modified Granger-Ramanathan and Bates-Granger Methods for Developing a Combined Forecast of Economic Indicators Dynamics]. Voprosy statistiki, 2019, no 26(8), pp. 14–27.

3. Shirov A.A. Makrostrukturnyi analiz i prognozirovanie v sovremennykh usloviyakh razvitiya ekonomiki [Macrostructural Analysis and Forecasting under Current Conditions of Economic Development]. Problemy prognozirovaniya, 2022, no 5, pp. 43–57.

4. Dmitrieva M.V., Suetin S.N. Modelirovanie dinamiki ravnovesnykh valyutnykh kursov [Simulating the Dynamics of Equilibrium Exchange Rates]. Vestnik KIGIT, 2012, no 12–2(30), pp. 061–064.

5. Linkevich E.F. Mirovaya valyutnaya sistema: poliinstrumental’nyi standart [World Monetary System: Polyinstrumental Standard]. Krasnodar, 2014, pp. 82–91.

6. Ageev A.I., Loginov E.L. Izmenenie strategii operirovaniya dollarom: zapusk SShA novogo kreditno-investitsionnogo tsikla vo vzaimosvyazi s valyutnymi voinami [Changing the Strategy of Dollar Handling: US Launch of New Credit-Investment Cycle in Association with the Currency Wars]. Ekonomicheskie strategii, 2015, no 3(129), pp. 20–35.

7. Fedorova E.A., Lazarev M.P. Vliyanie tseny na neft’ na finansovyi rynok Rossii v krizisnyi period [Impact of Oil Prices on the Financial Market of Russia During the Crisis]. Finansy i kredit, 2014, № 20(596), pp. 14–22.

8. Kuz’min A.Yu. Valyutnye kursy: v poiskakh strategicheskogo ravnovesiya [Exchange Rates: in Search of Strategic Equilibrium]. Ekonomicheskie strategii, 2018, no 1, pp. 82–91.

DOI: https://doi.org/10.33917/es-1.181.2022.146-149

Review of the book by A.S. Galushka, A.K. Niyazmetov, M.O. Okulov “Crystal of Growth: Towards the Russian Economic Miracle”, published in 2021 by Nashe Zavtra CJSC with support of Rostec State Corporation, Siber JSC and RT-Security JSC.

DOI: 10.33917/es-8.174.2020.6-15

The research was prepared for the scientific project № 18-010-00500 that is referred to as “Challenges Russia facing with in the light of the new Integrated world economic system formation and transition from the Industrial society of the XXth century to the Information society of the XXIst century” and supported by the Russian Foundation for Basic Research. The paper is devoted to the actual issues of de-dollarization in global and cross-country relations (on the example of China-Russia ones). The main goal of the research is to identify the challenges and threats for RMB and ruble usage and work out the instruments and mechanisms to stimulate de-dollarization processes in the Eurasian region and worldwide. Firstly, we determine the key negative factors influencing word financial and economic system development and increasing the turbulence within it. Secondly, the history of local currency settlement (LCS) between China and Russia was accurately analyzed and divided into phases. Thirdly, we addressed the processes preventing its successful development (these tasks were solved in part 1 of the work). Finally, we offered the practical solutions to intensify the LCS between China and Russia and facilitate the building of new world economic order (part 2).

In memory of Lyndon LaRouche – a titan of thought, a man of incredible encyclopaedic knowledge, a great soul and love for humanity

This article contains the results of joint scientific and diplomatic work of the two research groups — from the Chinese and Russian side: under the leadership of Chongyang Institute for Financial Studies, Renmin University of China (RDCY) and Counselor to the President of the Russian Federation. The uniqueness of this publication lies in the fact that a reader has the opportunity to observe the joint work including analysis of the Sino-Russian financial and economic cooperation benefits and “bottlenecks” of scientists, heads of leading institutions and officials in real time and in the process of coordinating the positions of the parties, to understand the complexity of diplomatic work and to assess the importance of agreements and results having been achieved.

Economy as an eternally living system does not stabilize at the equilibrium point, but passing through a structural crisis and renewing its technological and institutional framework, enters the new trajectory of growth. That is why, reduction of economic reality to search for equilibrium, applied by market fundamentalists, resembles attempts of medieval physiologists to disclose the mystery of life with the help of pathologic anatomy. Author of the article shows that neoclassical positive analysis, revolving around the doctrine of market equilibrium, is essentially a pseudo-scientific religion, substantiating the sacred right of private property. The conclusion is made that it is necessary to stop paying attention to the market fundamentalist demagogy and to pass to pragmatic economic policy in national interests — to implement a program of growth proposed by Stolypin club.

The article proposes a systematic, pragmatic and creative approach to analyzing status and prospects of the Russian economy development in the context of global instability. This approach is distinguished by economic reality perception in all its complexity, characterized by nonlinearity, non-equilibrium and uncertainty of socio-economic development processes, by their laws awareness. On the basis of its application the authors have developed proposals for implementing an integrated public policies system for economy development and modernization on the advanced structural and technological basis, the implementation of which will accelerate the pace of economic growth and will allow to pass on to innovative development define for Russian economy in the world economic system. Nevertheless, let’s look at the situation from a viewpoint of non-economist.

The article proposes a systematic, pragmatic and creative approach to the status and prospects analysis of the Russian economy development in the context of global instability. This approach is distinguished by understanding economic reality in all its complexity, characterized by nonlinearity, non-equilibrium and uncertainty of socio-economic development processes, by awareness of their laws. On the basis of its application the authors have developed proposals for implementing an integrated public policies system for development and modernization of the economy on the advanced structural and technological basis, the implementation of which will accelerate the pace of economic growth and will allow to pass on to innovative development.

The article proposes a systematic, pragmatic and creative approach to the status and prospects analysis of the Russian economy development in the context of global instability. This approach is distinguished by understanding economic reality in all its complexity, characterized by nonlinearity, non-equilibrium and uncertainty of socio-economic development processes, by awareness of their laws. On the basis of its application the authors have developed proposals for implementing an integrated public policies system for development and modernization of the economy on the advanced structural and technological basis, the implementation of which will accelerate the pace of economic growth and will allow to pass on to innovative development.