DOI: 10.33917/es-4.196.2024.18-25

Despite improving economic indicators and revisions towards better forecasts for 2024, systemic threats and risks, which are not always obvious, remain in the global economy. In the article, the author draws attention to a number of new problems and circumstances that are changing financial landscape in the world. In particular, attention is paid to expanding approaches of central banks in new conditions, risks arising from the technological advancement of commercial banks, which requires more careful control to prevent a destabilizing effect on the financial sector as a whole, etc.

References:

1. BIS. Annual Economic Report. Basel, June, 2023, available at: https://www.bis.org/publ/arpdf/ar2023e.htm

2. UN. World Economic Situation and Prospects. May 2024, available at: https://www.un.org/development/desa/dpad/publication/world-economic-situationand-prospects-as-of-mid-2024/

3. Bank JP Morgan otkroet bolee 500 novykh otdeleniy v blizhayshie tri goda [JP Morgan will Open More than 500 New Branches in the Next Three Years]. Kommersant. 2024. 6 fevralya. URL: https://www.kommersant.ru/doc/6494367

4. China’s central bank hints it may add treasury bond trades to policy toolkit. Reuters. April 23, 2024, available at: https://www.reuters.com/world/china/ chinas-central-bank-hints-it-may-add-treasury-bond-trades-policy-toolkit-2024-04-23/

5. UN. World Economic Situation and Prospects. January 2024. UN, available at: https://www.un.org/development/desa/dpad/publication/world-economicsituation-and-prospects-2024/

6. Roskongress. Zamorozka aktivov. Traditsii i novye printsipy raboty Zapada s aktivami tret’ikh stran [Росконгресс. Roscongress. Freeze of Assets. Traditions and New Principles of Western Work with Assets of Third Countries]. Roskongress, 2023, Dekabr’ available at: https://roscongress.org/materials/ zamorozka-aktivov-samoupravstvo-ili-zakonnyy-shag/

DOI: 10.33917/es-4.190.2023.60-63

First the pandemic and then geopolitical tensions in the world created new conditions and posed new challenges for the economies. Among the mechanisms, needed to finance increased government spending, many countries have begun to apply the approaches of the so-called Modern Monetary Theory. It seems that the use of its elements could also be expedient in Russia to finance the necessary transformation of the economy.

References:

1.World Bank. Global Economic Prospects. June 2023. URL: https://openknowledge.worldbank.org/server/api/core/bitstreams/6e892b75-2594-4901-a036-46d0dec1e753/content.

2. Moiseev S.R. Khaip vokrug (ne)denezhnoi (ne)teorii [Hype around (non)Monetary (non)Theory]. Voprosy ekonomiki, 2019, no 9, pp. 112–122.

3. Ershov M.V. Kak finansirovat’ novye gosraskhody: vozmozhnye mekhanizmy v usloviyakh sanktsii [How to Finance New Government Spendings: Possible Mechanisms in the Environment of Sanctions]. Ekonomicheskie strategii, 2022, no 6, pp. 26–29. DOI: 10.33917/es-6.186.2022.26-29.

DOI: https://doi.org/10.33917/es-6.186.2022.26-29

Sanctions against the Russian Federation have created fundamentally new conditions for the functioning of the Russian economy.

This poses new challenges, which require government spendings increase. It appears that Russian regulators have unused mechanisms, the use of which will provide the economy with new money, without complicating the situation of other sectors. The article suggests mechanisms that highlights internal sources of liquidity formation for the economy. In the environment of sanctions, such mechanisms also increase the independence of monetary policy from external constraints.

References:

1. Kommentarii Banka Rossii po operatsiyam na rynke gosudarstvennogo dolga [Bank of Russia’s Commentary on Operations in the Government Debt Market]. Bank of Russia, 2022, 18 marta, available at: http://www.cbr.ru/eng/press/event/?id=12763.

2. TsB RF [Central Bank of the Russian Federation]. Obzor riskov finansovykh rynkov, 2022, no 2–3(60–61), fevral’-mart.

3. Bank Rossii. Osnovnye napravleniya edinoi gosudarstvennoi denezhno-kreditnoi politiki na 2023 god i period 2024 i 2025 godov: Proekt ot 11 avgusta 2022 g. [Bank of Russia. Guidelines for the Single State Monetary Policy for 2023 and the Period of 2024 and 2025: the Draft of August 11, 2022]. Bank Rossii, pp. 24–25, available at: https://cbr.ru/about_br/publ/ondkp/on_2023_2025/

4. Ershov M.V. Kakaya ekonomicheskaya politika nuzhna Rossii v usloviyakh sanktsii? [What Kind of Economic Policy does Russia Need in the Face of Sanctions?]. Voprosy ekonomiki, 2014, no 12, pp. 37–53.

DOI: https://doi.org/10.33917/es-4.184.2022.17-21

The article emphasizes that freezing of Russian gold and foreign exchange reserves was previously accurately predicted by Russian experts. Attention is drawn to the fact that weakening of the ruble was one of the goals of the sanctions impact on the Russian economy that Western countries were bearing in mind. It is obvious that the exact opposite — preventing its depreciation and turning the ruble into a stable strong currency — is an anti-sanction measure. With high dependence of the Russian economy on imports, as well as in the situation when it is necessary to find alternative ways for imports (primarily for investment), which will lead to their higher prices with corresponding consequences, an excessive exchange rate depreciation may adversely affect economic development, especially in a long term. In addition, extremely important is ensuring stability of the exchange rate. It is concluded that stable and non-depreciating ruble will form the basis for consistent development of business and expand the possibilities for using the ruble in foreign trade settlements as well. It is particularly relevant in the context of restrictions on the use of leading currencies in foreign trade.

Источники:

1. Ershov M.V. Sanktsii protiv RF: mekhanizmy neitralizatsii [Sanctions Against the Russian Federation: Neutralization Mechanisms]. Ekonomicheskie strategii, 2017, no 7, pp. 46–51.

2. Baiden ogovorilsya, zayaviv, chto dollar stoit 200 rublei [Biden Made a Slip of the Tongue Saying That the Dollar is Worth 200 Rubles]. RIA Novosti, 2022, March, 26, available at: https://ria.ru/20220326/bayden-1780271172.html.

3. Sanktsii SShA protiv TsB i Minfina perekroyut dostup k rezervam dlya podderzhki rublya [US Sanctions Against the Central Bank and the Ministry of Finance will Block Access to Reserves for Supporting the Ruble]. Interfaks, 2022, February, 28, available at: https://www.interfax.ru/business/825191.

4. Bank Rossii. O chem govoryat trendy [Bank of Russia. What are the Trends Saying?]. BCS Express, 2022, April, 22, available at: https://bcs-express.ru/novosti-i-analitika/bank-rossii-o-chem-govoriat-trendy.

5. SMI: EK zayavila, chto ukaz ob oplate gaza v rublyakh narushaet sanktsii ES [Media: EC Said That the Decree on Gas Payments in Rubles Violates EU Sanctions]. RIA Novosti, 2022, April, 14, available at: https://ria.ru/20220414/gaz-1783434893.html.

6. Russia’s ruble is the strongest currency in the world this year. CBS NEWS, 2022, May, 27, available at: https://www.cbsnews.com/news/russia-rublecurrency-2022/

7. Ershov M.V. Valyutnaya politika kak faktor natsional’noi bezopasnosti [Monetary Policy as National Security Factor]. Ekonomicheskie strategii, 2015, no 4, pp. 20–29.

8. Washington Times. 2015, April, 30.

9. Ershov M.V. Ekonomicheskii suverenitet Rossii v global’noi ekonomike [Russia’s Economic Sovereignty in the Global Economy]. Moscow, Ekonomika, 2005, 280 p.

10. BIS. Quarterly Review. International banking and financial market developments. June 2022.

DOI: https://doi.org/10.33917/es-6.180.2021.63-67

The Bank of Russia in its systemic documents, published in 2020, presents solution of a wide range of topical issues of the Russian financial system and economy related to providing the real sector with long-term money, the lack of which is one of the key factors restraining the growth of investments and the Russian economy for years. However, implementation of measures proposed in the documents may take more than one year until the economy begins to feel their effect. In this regard, it seems important to consider more systemic mechanisms that will allow to expand the volume of long-term money. In particular, we are talking about approaches based on interaction of the national central bank and the national ministry of finance. Besides, more and more countries in the world are actively applying the indicated mechanisms.

Источники:

1. Osnovnye napravleniya razvitiya finansovogo rynka Rossiiskoi Federatsii na 2022 god i period 2023 i 2024 godov: Proekt ot 30 sentyabrya 2021 g. [Main Directions of Development of the Financial Market of the Russian Federation for 2022 and the Period of 2023 and 2024: Draft Dated September 30, 2021.]. TsBR, available at: https://cbr.ru/Content/Document/File/124658/onrfr_project_2021-09-30.pdf.

2. Osnovnye napravleniya edinoi gosudarstvennoi denezhno-kreditnoi politiki na 2022 god i period 2023 i 2024 godov [Guidelines for the Single State Monetary Policy for 2022 and the Period of 2023 and 2024]. TsBR, available at: https://cbr.ru/about_br/publ/ondkp/on_2022_2024/

3. Aganbegyan A.G., Ershov M.V. Ne stoit melochit’sya. Spasut li Rossiyu dlinnye den’gi? [One Shouldn’t Waste Time on Trifles. Will Long Money Save Russia?]. Argumenty i fakty, 2020, August, 10.

4. Poslanie Prezidenta RF Federal’nomu sobraniyu [Message of the President of the Russian Federation to the Federal Assembly]. Ofitsial’nyi sait Prezidenta RF, 2021, April, 21, available at: http://www.kremlin.ru/events/president/transcripts/messages.

5. Ershov M.V. Mir v 2020 godu: novye problemy obnazhayut sistemnye izmeneniya v ekonomike [The World in 2020: New Problems Reveal Systemic Changes in the Economy]. Voprosy ekonomiki, 2020, no 12, pp. 5–23.

DOI: 10.33917/es- 1.175.2021.6-13

The paper continues the publication with the same title and is devoted to the development of currency and financial cooperation between Russia and China. This part of the study contains the main proposals for stimulating of local currency settlements for the analyzed countries and “recipes” for creating new world economic order. In the first part of the work the special attention is paid to the processes of payment systems’ conjugation, development of digital currencies and the idea of creating a collective currency in the Eurasian economic space. The second part is devoted to systemic reforms of the global financial and economic system

DOI: 10.33917/es-8.174.2020.6-15

The research was prepared for the scientific project № 18-010-00500 that is referred to as “Challenges Russia facing with in the light of the new Integrated world economic system formation and transition from the Industrial society of the XXth century to the Information society of the XXIst century” and supported by the Russian Foundation for Basic Research. The paper is devoted to the actual issues of de-dollarization in global and cross-country relations (on the example of China-Russia ones). The main goal of the research is to identify the challenges and threats for RMB and ruble usage and work out the instruments and mechanisms to stimulate de-dollarization processes in the Eurasian region and worldwide. Firstly, we determine the key negative factors influencing word financial and economic system development and increasing the turbulence within it. Secondly, the history of local currency settlement (LCS) between China and Russia was accurately analyzed and divided into phases. Thirdly, we addressed the processes preventing its successful development (these tasks were solved in part 1 of the work). Finally, we offered the practical solutions to intensify the LCS between China and Russia and facilitate the building of new world economic order (part 2).

Considering all the measures taken by central banks of the leading countries to overcome the global financial crisis of 2007–2009, one might have expected that economies would grow at a higher pace. However, their growth remains rather unstable. This puts the question of how modern economy retains the capability to adequately respond to applied measures of impact.

Sanctions against Russia adopted in the summer of 2017 will result in aggravation of long-term foreign exchange funding for the Russian economy, in an increase of short-term financial resources in the market and intensification of the speculative nature of Russia’s financial market. The article considers some of the possible measures that Russian regulators and businesses need to take in order to ensure market stability and minimize the negative effects of sanctions for themselves.

In Russia high interest rates are complemented by strict budget policy, which in the nearest future will reduce government spending and slow down economic growth.