DOI: 10.33917/es-1.187.2023.16-25

Forecasting the ruble exchange dynamics appears objectively necessary for shaping both the medium-term financial strategy of industry corporations and the general strategic course for occupying leading positions in sectors of business interest, including through the use of new financial instruments, new markets and, in general, a system of strategic planning of socio-economic development of Russia. However, in today’s realities, according to most experts, with whom we cannot but agree, the task of forecasting seems extremely difficult and appears complicated by the fact that the launched crises are unpredictable and are characterized by a diverse nature (pandemic and geopolitical crises, expansion of trade wars and sanctions). In such conditions, when uncertainty grows excessively, it is important to turn to the accumulated experience: to analyze to what extent the available models can be suitable for prospective assessments in the current environment.

References:

16. Ageev A.I., Glaz’ev S.Yu., Mityaev D.A., Zolotareva O.A., Pereslegin S.B. Postroenie modeli prognoza kursa valyut na dolgosrochnom i kratkosrochnom gorizontakh [Building a Model for Forecasting the Exchange Rate on the Long-term and Short-term Horizons]. Ekonomicheskie strategii, 2022, no 6 (186), pp. 16–25, available at: DOI: https://doi.org/10.33917/es-6.186.2022.16-25.

17. Dubrova T.A. Analiz vremennykh dannykh [Time Data Analysis]. Analiz dannykh. Moscow, Yurait, 2019, pp. 397–459.

18. Boks Dzh, Dzhenkins G. Analiz vremennyh ryadov [Time Series Analysis]. Prognozirovanie i upravlenie. Moscow, Mir, 1974, 406 p.

19. Alzheev A.V., Kochkarov R.A. Sravnitel’nyi analiz prognoznykh modelei ARIMA i LSTM na primere aktsii rossiiskikh kompanii [Comparative Analysis of ARIMA and LSTM Forecasting Models on the Example of Russian Companies’ Stocks]. Finansy: teoriya i praktika, 2020, no 24(1), pp. 14–23,
DOI: 10.26794/2587-5671-2020-24-1-14-23.

20. Mhitaryan S.V., Danchenok L.A. Prognozirovanie prodazh s pomoshch’yu adaptivnyh statisticheskih metodov [Sales Forecasting with the Help of Adaptive Statistical Methods]. Fundamental’nye issledovaniya, 2014, no 9-4, pp. 818–822.

21. Pilyugina A.V., Bojko A.A. Ispol’zovanie modelej ARIMA dlya prognozirovaniya valyutnogo kursa [Using ARIMA Models for Exchange Rate Forecasting]. Prikaspijskij zhurnal: upravlenie i vysokie tekhnologii, 2015, no 4, pp. 249-267.

22. Ruppert D., Matteson D.S. Statistics and Data Analysis for Financial Engineering. Springer, 2015, available at: https://link.springer.com/book/10.1007%2F978-1-4939-2614-5.

23. Garcia F., Guijarro F., Moya I., Oliver J. Estimating returns and conditional volatility: A comparison between the ARMA-GARCH-M models and the backpropagation neural network. International Journal of Complex Systems in Science, 2012, no 1(2), pp. 21–26.

24. Maniatis P. Forecasting the Exchange Rate Between Euro And USD: Probabilistic Approach Versus ARIMA And Exponential Smoothing Techniques. Journal of Applied Business Research (JABR), 2012, no 28(2), pp. 171–192, available at: https://doi.org/10.19030/jabr.v28i2.6840.

DOI: https://doi.org/10.33917/es-6.186.2022.16-25

Forecasting the ruble exchange dynamics appears objectively necessary for shaping both the medium-term financial strategy of industry corporations and the general strategic course for occupying leading positions in sectors of business interest, including through the use of new financial instruments, new markets and, in general, a system of strategic planning of socio-economic development of Russia. However, in today’s realities, according to most experts, with whom we cannot but agree, the task of forecasting seems extremely difficult and appears complicated by the fact that the launched crises are unpredictable and are characterized by a diverse nature (pandemic and geopolitical crises, expansion of trade wars and sanctions). In such conditions, when uncertainty grows excessively, it is important to turn to the accumulated experience: to analyze to what extent the available models can be suitable for prospective assessments in the current environment.

References:

1. Kuranov G.O. Metodicheskie voprosy kratkosrochnoi otsenki i prognoza makroekonomicheskikh pokazatelei [Methodological Issues of Short-Term Assessment and Forecast of Macroeconomic Indicators]. Voprosy statistiki, 2018, no 25(2), pp. 3–24.

2. Frenkel’ A.A., Volkova N.N., Surkov A.A., Romanyuk E.I. Sravnitel’nyi analiz modifitsirovannykh metodov Greindzhera — Ramanatkhana i Beitsa — Greindzhera dlya postroeniya ob”edinennogo prognoza dinamiki ekonomicheskikh pokazatelei [Comparative Analysis of Modified Granger-Ramanathan and Bates-Granger Methods for Developing a Combined Forecast of Economic Indicators Dynamics]. Voprosy statistiki, 2019, no 26(8), pp. 14–27.

3. Shirov A.A. Makrostrukturnyi analiz i prognozirovanie v sovremennykh usloviyakh razvitiya ekonomiki [Macrostructural Analysis and Forecasting under Current Conditions of Economic Development]. Problemy prognozirovaniya, 2022, no 5, pp. 43–57.

4. Dmitrieva M.V., Suetin S.N. Modelirovanie dinamiki ravnovesnykh valyutnykh kursov [Simulating the Dynamics of Equilibrium Exchange Rates]. Vestnik KIGIT, 2012, no 12–2(30), pp. 061–064.

5. Linkevich E.F. Mirovaya valyutnaya sistema: poliinstrumental’nyi standart [World Monetary System: Polyinstrumental Standard]. Krasnodar, 2014, pp. 82–91.

6. Ageev A.I., Loginov E.L. Izmenenie strategii operirovaniya dollarom: zapusk SShA novogo kreditno-investitsionnogo tsikla vo vzaimosvyazi s valyutnymi voinami [Changing the Strategy of Dollar Handling: US Launch of New Credit-Investment Cycle in Association with the Currency Wars]. Ekonomicheskie strategii, 2015, no 3(129), pp. 20–35.

7. Fedorova E.A., Lazarev M.P. Vliyanie tseny na neft’ na finansovyi rynok Rossii v krizisnyi period [Impact of Oil Prices on the Financial Market of Russia During the Crisis]. Finansy i kredit, 2014, № 20(596), pp. 14–22.

8. Kuz’min A.Yu. Valyutnye kursy: v poiskakh strategicheskogo ravnovesiya [Exchange Rates: in Search of Strategic Equilibrium]. Ekonomicheskie strategii, 2018, no 1, pp. 82–91.

DOI: https://doi.org/10.33917/es-5.185.2022.87-91

Review of the book by the famous Russian economist, sociologist and politician V.L. Inozemtsev “Economy without dogmas: how the US is creating a new economic order”, published in 2021 by Alpina-Publisher.

DOI: https://doi.org/10.33917/es-1.181.2022.146-149

Review of the book by A.S. Galushka, A.K. Niyazmetov, M.O. Okulov “Crystal of Growth: Towards the Russian Economic Miracle”, published in 2021 by Nashe Zavtra CJSC with support of Rostec State Corporation, Siber JSC and RT-Security JSC.

DOI: https://doi.org/10.33917/es-5.179.2021.36-45

Acceleration of technological and institutional development results in reduced lags between innovations and their installation in the economy and society, which modifies long-wave patterns (but doesn’t cancel them). In this regard, the question arises on the possibility of a “Russian economic miracle” on a new financial and digital basis. This is a question about ecosystems (digital platforms — a relatively recent complex financial and production innovation), the prototypes of which, however, have already been in history. Historical studies of protoecosystems and modern ecosystems, addressed by the author, allow us to answer the question: “ecosystem” (convergent) technologies are a factor undermining macroeconomic stability in the interests of a narrow circle of global and local players and (or) a mechanism for changing technological and institutional patterns (?!).

DOI: 10.33917/es- 1.175.2021.6-13

The paper continues the publication with the same title and is devoted to the development of currency and financial cooperation between Russia and China. This part of the study contains the main proposals for stimulating of local currency settlements for the analyzed countries and “recipes” for creating new world economic order. In the first part of the work the special attention is paid to the processes of payment systems’ conjugation, development of digital currencies and the idea of creating a collective currency in the Eurasian economic space. The second part is devoted to systemic reforms of the global financial and economic system

DOI: 10.33917/es-8.174.2020.6-15

The research was prepared for the scientific project № 18-010-00500 that is referred to as “Challenges Russia facing with in the light of the new Integrated world economic system formation and transition from the Industrial society of the XXth century to the Information society of the XXIst century” and supported by the Russian Foundation for Basic Research. The paper is devoted to the actual issues of de-dollarization in global and cross-country relations (on the example of China-Russia ones). The main goal of the research is to identify the challenges and threats for RMB and ruble usage and work out the instruments and mechanisms to stimulate de-dollarization processes in the Eurasian region and worldwide. Firstly, we determine the key negative factors influencing word financial and economic system development and increasing the turbulence within it. Secondly, the history of local currency settlement (LCS) between China and Russia was accurately analyzed and divided into phases. Thirdly, we addressed the processes preventing its successful development (these tasks were solved in part 1 of the work). Finally, we offered the practical solutions to intensify the LCS between China and Russia and facilitate the building of new world economic order (part 2).

DOI: 10.33917/es-6.164.2019.128-134

The article proposes solutions to an urgent challenge: transforming Russian regions into the territories of advanced development taking advantage of technologies of the fourth industrial revolution, Industry 4.0. The paper dwells on advantages and problems of introducing the Industry 4.0 technologies, proposals on cooperation of the state and business for introducing technologies of Industry 4.0 at the industrial level and for their promotion among the population.

By the beginning of autumn 2018, the Russian government and business have fixed the status quo — any change in the model (including the contract between the government and big business, concluded 15-20 years ago as a result of “equidistant oligarchs”) is out of question. In business logic, the authority (arbitrator) does not have the right to require too much (compliance with the code of a builder, if not of communism, then of socially acceptable capitalism) or to play along with its own adherents (give contracts to state companies, redistribute assets, etc.). Although in fact this happens “sometimes and somewhere in our country” (in state-owned companies and the public sector), but is considered an exception to the rule of “sterile capitalism”: business on its own (“pay taxes and sleep well”). Analyzing historical options of combining contracts with the people and the elite: in Catherine’s and Peter’s periods, the authors present possible options for the modern combination of contracts between the government and business, as well as with the population: the current neoliberal course, the course towards a social market economy and a forced tough (mobilization) course.

The report examines positions and models of adapting the main Russian business groups (RBG) in 2018. The working hypotheses of scenario-based modeling were outlined in this report’s review, here the authors specify the set of basic variables (order parameters) for the USA (and the global economy in general) and Russia. Summarizing the self-destruction/demolition scenarios for the American and global financial system, the author comes to conclusion that business and the Russian state need to prepare for the worst “catastrophe” scenario, as in military sphere we must be prepared for attack with all the forces and means that the enemy has got. Collapse of the global financial system is actually an attack by all means and forces, especially in the context of “adequacy” of the Western elite to real threats and to the degree of responsibility that they have already demonstrated this year.