DOI: 10.33917/es-3.189.2023.6-15

Key parameters of attacks directions on the Russian economy and forecasts of the expected results, which previously have inspired confidence in Western states that political regime would inevitability fall, which stimulated the US and EU sanctions activity, were developed by a number of authoritative Western expert structures. Western strategies for collapsing the Russian economy in 2022–2023 with the help of sanctions, formed on the basis of these forecasts, did not bring the desired result. At the same time, alternative forecasts of a group of Russian scientists from the CEMI RAS and their Chinese colleagues on stability of the economies of Russia and China in the event of a friendly policy in the context of trade wars with the US and the EU, made in 2019, were fully confirmed. At the core of these forecasts there are analytical tools based on agent modeling.

References:

1. Ageev A.I., Loginov E.L. Mirovoe soobshchestvo v usloviyakh sverkhkriticheskoi bifurkatsii Upravlenie slozhnymi organizatsionnymi i tekhnicheskimi sistemami v usloviyakh sverkhkriticheskikh situatsii: Materialy mezhdunarodnoi nauchno-prakticheskoi konferentsii [World Community in Conditions of Supercritical Bifurcation: Management of Complex Organizational and Technical Systems in Conditions of Supercritical Situations: Proceedings of the international scientific and practical conference]. Moscow, INES, 2022, pp. 9–12.

2. Ageev A.I., Loginov E.L. Novaya bol’shaya voina: khroniki khorosho zabytogo budushchego [New Large-Scale War: Chronicles of Well Forgotten Future]. Ekonomicheskie strategii, 2014, vol. 16, no 6–7(122–123), pp. 16–33.

3. Makarov V.L., Vu Ts., Vu Z., Khabriev B.R., Bakhtizin A.R. Mirovye torgovye voiny: stsenarnye raschety posledstvii [World Trade Wars: Scenario Calculations of Consequences]. Vestnik Rossiiskoi akademii nauk, 2020, vol. 90, no 2, pp. 169–179.

4. Makarov V.L., Vu Ts., Vu Z., Khabriev B.R., Bakhtizin A.R. Sovremennye instrumenty otsenki posledstvii mirovykh torgovykh voin [Modern Tools for Assessing the Effects of World Trade Wars]. Vestnik Rossiiskoi akademii nauk, 2019, vol. 89, no 7, pp. 745–754.

5. Tsigas M., McDaniel C., Schropp S., Mahlstein K. Potential economic effects of sanctions on Russia: An Allied trade embargo. Voxeu.org, 2022, available at: https://voxeu.org/article/potential-economic-effects-allied-trade-embargo-russia.

6. Mahlstein K., McDaniel C., Schropp S., Tsigas M. Estimating the economic effects of sanctions on Russia: An Allied trade embargo. The World Economy, 2022, no 45, pp. 3344–3383, available at: https://doi.org/10.1111/twec.13311.

7. Bryan R., Johnson G., Sytsma T., Priebe M. Does the U.S. Economy Benefit from U.S. Alliances and Forward Military Presence? Santa Monica, CA: RAND Corporation, 2022, available at: https://www.rand.org/pubs/research_reports/RRA739-5.

8. Bolhuis A. Marijn, Jiaqian Chen, Benjamin Kett. Fragmentation in Global Trade: Accounting for Commodities. IMF Working Paper. 2023. No. WP 23/73.

DOI: 10.33917/es-2.188.2023.6-23

We do care about what the foreseeable future will be… The recent period has clearly shown that expectations of W estern experts regarding the planned collapse of Russian and Chinese economies have not materialized. The ar ticle analyzes the main pressure tools and strategies of the main global politics actors on peripheral countries in order to solve the accumulated problems associated with increased debts and the need for fur ther trade expansion. Aggregated forecast scenarios for the situation development in relation to the GDP growth/fall of the leading countries of the world are structured.

The authors’ calculations proved that, despite the risks and threats of fur ther sanctions escalation and other restrictions, the implemented macroeconomic policy of Russia and China ensures preser vation of their key socio-economic indicators, providing national sovereignty.

References:

1. US Debt Clock, available at: https://www.usdebtclock.org.

2. Global wealth databook. 2021. Credit Suisse, 2021, June, available at: https://www.credit-suisse.com/media/assets/corporate/docs/about-us/research/
publications/global-wealth-databook-2021.pdf.

3. National Defense Budget Estimates for FY 2023. Office of the Under Secretary of Defense. United States Department of Defense, 2022, July, available at: https://comptroller.defense.gov/Budget-Materials/Budget2023/

4. Temnaya zima: Dannye Tsentra bezopasnosti zdorov’ya Dzhona Khopkinsa [Dark Winter: Data from the Johns Hopkins Health Security Center]. Center for Health Security, available at: https://www.centerforhealthsecurity.org/our-work/exercises/2001_dark-winter/about.html.

5. Atlanticheskii shtorm: Dannye Tsentra bezopasnosti zdorov’ya Dzhona Khopkinsa [Atlantic Storm: Data from the Johns Hopkins Health Security Center]. Center for Health Security, available at: https://www.centerforhealthsecurity.org/our-work/exercises/2005_atlantic_storm/index.html.

6. Meropriyatie 201: Dannye Tsentra bezopasnosti zdorov’ya Dzhona Khopkinsa [Event 201: Data from the Johns Hopkins Health Security Center]. Center for Health Security, available at: https://www.centerforhealthsecurity.org/our-work/exercises/event201/

7. Puteshestvie po Shveitsarii v usloviyakh pandemii COVID-19: polnoe rukovodstvo na dekabr’ 2021 goda [Traveling Switzerland During the COVID-19

Pandemic: The Ultimate Guide for December 2021]. Swiss Info, 2021, 2 dekabrya, available at: https://www.swissinfo.ch/eng/business/wealthy-enjoy–benefits-

-of-the-covid-19-pandemic/46725912.

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paying-fair-share-americas-billionaires-not.

9. Vozvrashchayas’ k mezhdunarodnoi roli dollara SShA [Revisiting the International Role of the US Dollar]. BIS. Bank mezhdunarodnykh raschetov, 2022, 5 dekabrya, available at: https://www.bis.org/publ/qtrpdf/r_qt2212x.htm#:~:text=Approximately%20half%20of%20global%20trade,(see%20CGFS%20(2020)).

DOI: https://doi.org/10.33917/es-6.186.2022.38-51

The present paper follows up an earlier study on modeling and assessing the national strength of the world countries. This integral index is the most informative and popular indicator in the world that characterizes the aggregate potential of a particular country and at the same time makes it possible to compare the level of its power and socio-economic development with similar indicators of other states.

In the past national strength calculations were carried out by well-known political figures, such as foreign policy strategist and director (from 1975 to 2013) of the main Office of Net Assessment (ONA) of the US Department of Defence, Andrew Marshall [1], founder of political realism, Nicholas John Spekeman [2], one of the leading US foreign policy experts, Hans Morgenthau [3], founder of neorealism theory Kenneth Neil Waltz [4], author of the theory of offensive realism John Mearsheimer [5] and others. To date, dozens of methods for assessing national strength have been developed, the first of which was put forward in 1741. In the article first of all we’ll consider the most well-known foreign results and then present our own ones. In our opinion, it is important to make calculations of the integral indicator of national strength on an ongoing basis, as well as to compare our country’s potential with alternative estimates of analytical centers of geopolitical opponents.

References:

1. Marshall A.W. A Program to Improve Analytic Methods related to Strategic Forces. Policy Sciences, 1982, no 15(1), pp. 47–50, DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/BF00143367.

2. Spykman N.J. America’s Strategy in World Politics: The United States and the Balance of Power (1942; reprint, Hamden, CT: Archon Books, 1970).

3. Morgenthau H.J. Politics among Nations: The Struggle for Power and Peace, 2nd edition. New York: Alfred A. Knopf, 1954.

4. Waltz K.H. Theory of International Politics. Addison-Wesley Publishing Company, 1979.

5. Mearsheimer J.J. The Tragedy of Great Power Politics. N.Y., L., W.W. Norton & Company, 2001.

6. Correlates of War, available at: https://correlatesofwar.org.

7. Power. U.S. News & World Report, available at: https://www.usnews.com/news/best-countries/rankings/power.

8. Methodology: How the 2022 Best Countries Were Ranked. U.S. News & World Report, available at: https://www.usnews.com/news/best-countries/articles/methodology.

9. Most Powerful Countries 2022. World Population Review, available at: https://worldpopulationreview.com/country-rankings/most-powerful-countries.

10. About WPI. The World Power Index, available at: https://www.worldpowerindex.com/about-world-power-index/

11. Past Years. Lowy Institute Asia Power Index, available at: https://power.lowyinstitute.org/data/power.

12. What is Power. Lowy Institute Asia Power Index, available at: https://power.lowyinstitute.org/methodology/

13. Moyer J.D., Markle A. Relative national power codebook, version 7.2.2018. Denver, CO: Frederick S. Pardee Center for International Futures, Josef Korbel School of International Studies, University of Denver, 2018.

DOI: https://doi.org/10.33917/es-4.178.2021.22-35

The article discusses a promising and well-proven tool for analyzing economic relations in socio-economic systems, which is actively used all over the world — the matrix of financial flows. The paper identifies the main areas of its application and briefly describes the history of its development in the world and specifically for Russia. The author also features the process of constructing a matrix for 12 economic regions of our country by types of economic activity. In the course of filling with statistical data the problem of assessing the volume of interregional trade was identified, which made it necessary to undertake an additional research, the results of which are presented in the article. In conclusion an example of practical use of the constructed matrix as an independent tool, as well as part of a more complex economic and mathematical model, is demonstrated