DOI: 10.33917/es-1.199.2025.6-23

The article examines a possible nuclear attack as a civil problem of managing super-large organizational systems. The key tool for structuring the problem is agent-based modeling. Calculations show that even in case of a nuclear attack, the Russian Federation ensures its infrastructural and institutional stability, maintaining all control levers in the loop of state stability and life support for the population while solving the problems of necessary support for defence and security functionality. In this case, a difficult question arises: at what cost?

References:

1. Ageev A.I. Rol’ sanktsiy, konfliktov i spetsoperatsiy: razmyshleniya o budushchem. Chast’ 2 [The Role of Sanctions, Conflicts and Special Operations: Reflections on the Future. Part 2]. Nauchnyy vestnik oboronno-promyshlennogo kompleksa Rossii, 2024, no 1, pp. 33–42.

2. Bakhtizin A.R., Makarov V.L., Loginov E.L., et al. Gibridnye voyny v makroekonomicheskoy supersisteme XXI veka [Hybrid Wars in the Macroeconomic Supersystem of the XXI Century]. Ekonomicheskie strategii, 2023, vol. 25, no 2(188), pp. 6–23, DOI: ht tps://​doi.​org/​10.​33917/​es-​2.​188.​2023.​6–23.

3. Ageev A.I., Loginov E.L. Novaya bol’shaya voyna: khroniki khorosho zabytogo budushchego [New Large-scale War: Chronicles of Well Forgotten Future]. Ekonomicheskie strategii, 2014, vol. 16, no 6–7(122–123), pp. 16–33.

4. Makarov V.L., Bakhtizin A.R., Sushko E.D. Natsional’naya strategicheskaya sila stran, mezhdunarodnaya torgovlya i ekonomicheskaya uspeshnost’ stran v nestabil’nom mire [National Strategic Power of Countries, International Trade and Economic Success of Countries in an Unstable World]. Strategirovanie: teoriya i praktika, 2023, vol. 3, no 3(9), pp. 277–297.

5. Pudovkin E. “Ogranichennoy yadernoy voyny ne sushchestvuet”. Eksperty — o tom, naskol’ko real’na ee opasnost’ [“Limited Nuclear War Doesn’t Exist.” Experts on How Real Its Danger Is]. RTVI, 2022, 31 maya, available at: https://​rtvi.​com/​stories/​ogr​anic​henn​oj-​yadernoj-​vojny-​ne-​sus​hhes​tvue​t-​eksperty-​otom-​naskolko-​realna-​ee-​opasnost/

6. Surge: 2023 Global nuclear weapons spending. The International Campaign to Abolish Nuclear Weapons (ICAN).

7. Complicit: 2020 Global Nuclear Weapons Spending. The International Campaign to Abolish Nuclear Weapons (ICAN).

8. 90 sekund do polunochi. Chto nado znat’ o yadernoy voyne i ee posledstviyakh. Ob”yasnyaem, kak mogut vyglyadet’ yadernaya voyna i ee posledstviya, a takzhe kak i gde ot nee mozhno spastis’ [90 Seconds to Midnight. What you need to Know about Nuclear War and its Consequences. We Explain what Nuclear War and its Consequences Might Look like, as Well as How and Where you can Escape from it]. Dzen, 2024, 23 noyabrya, available at: https://​dzen.​ru/​a/​Z0G​bbBQ​HIkb​cs5p​d

9. Analitiki otsenili, skol’ko strany tratyat na yadernoe oruzhie v minutu [Analysts have Estimated how much the Countries Spend on Nuclear Weapons per Minute]. RBK, 2022, 15 iyunya, available at: https://​www.​rbc.​ru/​politics/​15/​06/​2022/​62a​9849​99a7​9471​c65c​e1b2​a

DOI: 10.33917/es-5.191.2023.38-53

Demographic situation largely determines the strategic prospects of our country in the context of fierce multifactorial competition between various countries of the world and their bilateral and multilateral alliances. The ar ticle examines dynamics of the Russian population trends, individual causes of male excess mor tality, the main factors for increasing the birth rate and also provides a quantitative assessment of the ef fectiveness of some of the above. To assess the consequences an agent-based demographic model of Russia was used and a sof tware package, developed jointly with researchers from China, was applied to make a long-term forecast of our country’s population.

References:

1. Putin zayavil, chto rossiyan dolzhno byt’ bol’she, i oni dolzhny byt’ zdorovy [Putin Said that there Should be More Russians, and they Should be Healthy].TASS, 2022, 9 iyunya, available at: https://​tass.​ru/​obschestvo/​14871349

2. Asel’ Gereikhanova. Vladimir Putin poruchil v 2023 godu dobit’sya rosta zarplat, rozhdaemosti i prodolzhitel’nosti zhizni [Vladimir Putin Instructed to Achieve an Increase in Wages, birth Rates and Life Expectancy in 2023]. Rossiiskaya gazeta, 2023, 29 yanvarya, available at: https://​rg.​ru/​2023/​01/​29/​zadachidlia-​razvitiia.​html

3. Demografiya [Demography]. Rosstat, available at: https://​rosstat.​gov.​ru/​folder/​12781

4. Andreev E. M., Darskii L. E., Khar’kova T. L. Naselenie Sovetskogo Soyuza: 1922–1991 [Population of the Soviet Union: 1922–1991]. Moscow, Nauka, 1993.

5. Rosstat [Website], available at: https://​rosstat.​gov.​ru

6. Makarov V. L., Il’in N. I., Bakhtizin A. R., Khabriev B. R. Natsional’naya sila stran mira: otsenka i prognoz [National Strength of the Countries in the World:

Evaluation and Forecast]. Ekonomicheskie strategii, 2022, no 6(186), pp. 38–51, DOI: https://​doi.​org/​10.​33917/​es-​6.​186.​2022.​38-​51

7. Vsemirnyi bank [Website], available at: https://​data.​worldbank.​org

8. Uroven’ smertnosti: Sravnitel’naya informatsiya po stranam [Mortality Rates: Comparative Information by Country], available at: https://​www.​cia.​gov/​the-​world-​factbook/​field/​death-​rate/​country-​comparison

9. Demografiya: Prognoz [Demographics: Forecast], available at: https://​www.​agents.​media/demografia-prognoz

10. Makarov V. L., Nigmatulin R. I., Il’in N. I., Bakhtizin A. R., Sushko E. D., Sidorenko M.​Yu. Tsifrovoi dvoinik (iskusstvennoe obshchestvo) sotsial’noekonomicheskoi

sistemy Rossii — platforma dlya eksperimentov v sfere upravleniya demograficheskimi protsessami [The Digital Twin (Artificial Society) of the Socio-Economic System of Russia is a Platform for Experiments in the Field of Managing Demographic Processes]. Ekonomicheskie strategii, 2022, no

2(182), pp. 6–19, DOI: https://​doi.​org/​10.​33917/​es-​2.​182.​2022.​6-​19.

11. Chislo rodivshikhsya (bez mertvorozhdennykh) za god [Number of Births (Excluding Stillbirths) per Year]. EMISS. Gosudarstvennaya statistika, available at: https://​www.​fedstat.​ru/​indicator/​31606

DOI: 10.33917/es-3.189.2023.6-15

Key parameters of attacks directions on the Russian economy and forecasts of the expected results, which previously have inspired confidence in Western states that political regime would inevitability fall, which stimulated the US and EU sanctions activity, were developed by a number of authoritative Western expert structures. Western strategies for collapsing the Russian economy in 2022–2023 with the help of sanctions, formed on the basis of these forecasts, did not bring the desired result. At the same time, alternative forecasts of a group of Russian scientists from the CEMI RAS and their Chinese colleagues on stability of the economies of Russia and China in the event of a friendly policy in the context of trade wars with the US and the EU, made in 2019, were fully confirmed. At the core of these forecasts there are analytical tools based on agent modeling.

References:

1. Ageev A.I., Loginov E.L. Mirovoe soobshchestvo v usloviyakh sverkhkriticheskoi bifurkatsii Upravlenie slozhnymi organizatsionnymi i tekhnicheskimi sistemami v usloviyakh sverkhkriticheskikh situatsii: Materialy mezhdunarodnoi nauchno-prakticheskoi konferentsii [World Community in Conditions of Supercritical Bifurcation: Management of Complex Organizational and Technical Systems in Conditions of Supercritical Situations: Proceedings of the international scientific and practical conference]. Moscow, INES, 2022, pp. 9–12.

2. Ageev A.I., Loginov E.L. Novaya bol’shaya voina: khroniki khorosho zabytogo budushchego [New Large-Scale War: Chronicles of Well Forgotten Future]. Ekonomicheskie strategii, 2014, vol. 16, no 6–7(122–123), pp. 16–33.

3. Makarov V.L., Vu Ts., Vu Z., Khabriev B.R., Bakhtizin A.R. Mirovye torgovye voiny: stsenarnye raschety posledstvii [World Trade Wars: Scenario Calculations of Consequences]. Vestnik Rossiiskoi akademii nauk, 2020, vol. 90, no 2, pp. 169–179.

4. Makarov V.L., Vu Ts., Vu Z., Khabriev B.R., Bakhtizin A.R. Sovremennye instrumenty otsenki posledstvii mirovykh torgovykh voin [Modern Tools for Assessing the Effects of World Trade Wars]. Vestnik Rossiiskoi akademii nauk, 2019, vol. 89, no 7, pp. 745–754.

5. Tsigas M., McDaniel C., Schropp S., Mahlstein K. Potential economic effects of sanctions on Russia: An Allied trade embargo. Voxeu.​org, 2022, available at: https://​voxeu.​org/​article/​potential-​economic-​effects-​allied-​trade-​embargo-​russia.

6. Mahlstein K., McDaniel C., Schropp S., Tsigas M. Estimating the economic effects of sanctions on Russia: An Allied trade embargo. The World Economy, 2022, no 45, pp. 3344–3383, available at: https://​doi.​org/​10.​1111/​twec.​13311.

7. Bryan R., Johnson G., Sytsma T., Priebe M. Does the U.S. Economy Benefit from U.S. Alliances and Forward Military Presence? Santa Monica, CA: RAND Corporation, 2022, available at: https://​www.​rand.​org/​pubs/​research_​reports/​RRA739-​5.

8. Bolhuis A. Marijn, Jiaqian Chen, Benjamin Kett. Fragmentation in Global Trade: Accounting for Commodities. IMF Working Paper. 2023. No. WP 23/73.

DOI: 10.33917/es-2.188.2023.6-23

We do care about what the foreseeable future will be… The recent period has clearly shown that expectations of W estern experts regarding the planned collapse of Russian and Chinese economies have not materialized. The ar ticle analyzes the main pressure tools and strategies of the main global politics actors on peripheral countries in order to solve the accumulated problems associated with increased debts and the need for fur ther trade expansion. Aggregated forecast scenarios for the situation development in relation to the GDP growth/fall of the leading countries of the world are structured.

The authors’ calculations proved that, despite the risks and threats of fur ther sanctions escalation and other restrictions, the implemented macroeconomic policy of Russia and China ensures preser vation of their key socio-economic indicators, providing national sovereignty.

References:

1. US Debt Clock, available at: https://​www.​usdebtclock.​org.

2. Global wealth databook. 2021. Credit Suisse, 2021, June, available at: https://​www.​credit-​suisse.​com/​media/​assets/​corporate/​docs/​about-​us/​research/
publications/global-wealth-databook-2021.pdf.

3. National Defense Budget Estimates for FY 2023. Office of the Under Secretary of Defense. United States Department of Defense, 2022, July, available at: https://​comptroller.​defense.​gov/​Budget-​Materials/​Budget2023/

4. Temnaya zima: Dannye Tsentra bezopasnosti zdorov’ya Dzhona Khopkinsa [Dark Winter: Data from the Johns Hopkins Health Security Center]. Center for Health Security, available at: https://​www.​cen​terf​orhe​alth​secu​rity.​org/​our-​work/​exercises/​2001_​dark-​winter/​about.​html.

5. Atlanticheskii shtorm: Dannye Tsentra bezopasnosti zdorov’ya Dzhona Khopkinsa [Atlantic Storm: Data from the Johns Hopkins Health Security Center]. Center for Health Security, available at: https://​www.​cen​terf​orhe​alth​secu​rity.​org/​our-​work/​exercises/​2005_​atlantic_​storm/​index.​html.

6. Meropriyatie 201: Dannye Tsentra bezopasnosti zdorov’ya Dzhona Khopkinsa [Event 201: Data from the Johns Hopkins Health Security Center]. Center for Health Security, available at: https://​www.​cen​terf​orhe​alth​secu​rity.​org/​our-​work/​exercises/​event201/

7. Puteshestvie po Shveitsarii v usloviyakh pandemii COVID-19: polnoe rukovodstvo na dekabr’ 2021 goda [Traveling Switzerland During the COVID-19

Pandemic: The Ultimate Guide for December 2021]. Swiss Info, 2021, 2 dekabrya, available at: https://​www.​swissinfo.​ch/​eng/​business/​wealthy-​enjoy–benefits-

-of-the-covid-19-pandemic/46725912.

8. Milliardery [Billionaires]. Americans for Tax Fairness. 2022. 14 aprelya. URL: https://​ame​rica​nsfo​rtax​fair​ness.​org/​issue/​tax-​day-​americas-​wor​king​fami​lies-

paying-fair-share-americas-billionaires-not.

9. Vozvrashchayas’ k mezhdunarodnoi roli dollara SShA [Revisiting the International Role of the US Dollar]. BIS. Bank mezhdunarodnykh raschetov, 2022, 5 dekabrya, available at: https://​www.​bis.​org/​publ/​qtrpdf/​r_​qt2212x.​htm#:~:text=Approximately%20half%20of%20global%20trade,(see%20CGFS%20(2020)).

DOI: https://​doi.​org/​10.​33917/​es-​6.​186.​2022.​38-​51

The present paper follows up an earlier study on modeling and assessing the national strength of the world countries. This integral index is the most informative and popular indicator in the world that characterizes the aggregate potential of a particular country and at the same time makes it possible to compare the level of its power and socio-economic development with similar indicators of other states.

In the past national strength calculations were carried out by well-known political figures, such as foreign policy strategist and director (from 1975 to 2013) of the main Office of Net Assessment (ONA) of the US Department of Defence, Andrew Marshall [1], founder of political realism, Nicholas John Spekeman [2], one of the leading US foreign policy experts, Hans Morgenthau [3], founder of neorealism theory Kenneth Neil Waltz [4], author of the theory of offensive realism John Mearsheimer [5] and others. To date, dozens of methods for assessing national strength have been developed, the first of which was put forward in 1741. In the article first of all we’ll consider the most well-known foreign results and then present our own ones. In our opinion, it is important to make calculations of the integral indicator of national strength on an ongoing basis, as well as to compare our country’s potential with alternative estimates of analytical centers of geopolitical opponents.

References:

1. Marshall A.W. A Program to Improve Analytic Methods related to Strategic Forces. Policy Sciences, 1982, no 15(1), pp. 47–50, DOI: https://​doi.​org/​10.​1007/​BF00143367.

2. Spykman N.J. America’s Strategy in World Politics: The United States and the Balance of Power (1942; reprint, Hamden, CT: Archon Books, 1970).

3. Morgenthau H.J. Politics among Nations: The Struggle for Power and Peace, 2nd edition. New York: Alfred A. Knopf, 1954.

4. Waltz K.H. Theory of International Politics. Addison-Wesley Publishing Company, 1979.

5. Mearsheimer J.J. The Tragedy of Great Power Politics. N.Y., L., W.W. Norton & Company, 2001.

6. Correlates of War, available at: https://​cor​rela​teso​fwar.​org.

7. Power. U.S. News & World Report, available at: https://​www.​usnews.​com/​news/​best-​countries/​rankings/​power.

8. Methodology: How the 2022 Best Countries Were Ranked. U.S. News & World Report, available at: https://​www.​usnews.​com/​news/​best-​countries/​articles/​methodology.

9. Most Powerful Countries 2022. World Population Review, available at: https://​wor​ldpo​pula​tion​revi​ew.​com/​country-​rankings/​most-​powerful-​countries.

10. About WPI. The World Power Index, available at: https://​www.​wor​ldpo​weri​ndex.​com/​about-​world-​power-​index/

11. Past Years. Lowy Institute Asia Power Index, available at: https://​power.​low​yins​titu​te.​org/​data/​power.

12. What is Power. Lowy Institute Asia Power Index, available at: https://​power.​low​yins​titu​te.​org/​methodology/

13. Moyer J.D., Markle A. Relative national power codebook, version 7.2.2018. Denver, CO: Frederick S. Pardee Center for International Futures, Josef Korbel School of International Studies, University of Denver, 2018.

DOI: https://​doi.​org/​10.​33917/​es-​4.​184.​2022.​6-​16

The risks of increasing international tension have sharply exacerbated the possibility of a nuclear conflict. The main geopolitical players in the international arena have actually recognized the possibility and even expediency of using nuclear weapons. In this context, the need to simulate the consequences of a nuclear strike in order to prepare for emergencies of a critical nature has become extremely urgent. The present article analyzes foreign experience of using digital simulators to this end. The authors outline Russian views on applying agent-based simulation methods for this purpose in the analysis of non-military (civilian) aspects of a nuclear blow effects.

Ис­точ­ни­ки:

1. Grabchak E.P., Loginov E.L. Podgotovka sistemy gosudarstvennogo upravleniya Rossii k sverkhkriticheskim situatsiyam prirodnogo i tekhnogennogo kharaktera [Preparing the Public Administration System of Russia for Supercritical Situations of Natural and Man-made Nature]. Problemy upravleniya bezopasnost’yu slozhnykh sistem: Materialy XXIX Mezhdunarodnoi nauchno-prakticheskoi konferentsii. Moskva, 15 dekabrya 2021 g. [Problems of Safety Management of Complex Systems: Proceedings of the XXIX International Scientific-practical Conference. Moscow, December 15, 2021]. Moscow, Institut problem upravleniya im. V.A. Trapeznikova RAN, pp. 99–103.

2. Ageev A.I., Bochkarev O.I., Grabchak E.P., Loginov E.L. Setetsentricheskaya sistema povyshennoi zhivuchesti upravleniya energetikoi Rossii v slozhnoprognoziruemykh kriticheskikh usloviyakh [Net-Centric System of Elevated Survivability of Energy Management in Russia Under Difficult-to-predict Critical Conditions]. Ekonomicheskie strategii, 2021, vol. 23, no 3 (177), pp. 6–17, available at: DOI: https://​doi.​org/​10.​33917/​es-​3.​177.​2021.​6-​17.

3. Moiseev N.N., Aleksandrov V.V., Tarko A.M. Chelovek i biosfera: Opyt sistemnogo analiza i eksperimenty s modelyami [Man and the Biosphere: The Experience of System Analysis and Experiments with Models]. Moscow, Nauka, 1985, 271 p.

4. Yadernaya zima i ee komp’yuternoe modelirovanie v 80-kh [Nuclear Winter and Its Computer Simulation in the 80s]. Khabr, 2022, May, 28, available at: https://​habr.​com/​ru/​company/​ruvds/​blog/​668256/

5. Turco R.P., Toon O.B., Ackerman T.P., Pollack J.B., Sagan C. Nuclear winter: Global consequences of multiple nuclear explosions, 1984.

6. Kokoshin A.A., Arbatov A.G., Vasil’ev A.A. Yadernoe oruzhie i strategicheskaya stabil’nost’ (stat’ya pervaya) [Nuclear Weapons and Strategic Stability (Article One)]. SShA: Ekonomika, politika, ideologiya, 1987, no 9, p. 3.

7. John M. Gates. The U.S. Army and Irregular Warfare. The College of Wooster Wooster, Ohio, available at: https://​discover.​wooster.​edu/​jgates/​files/​2011/​11/​fullbook.​pdf.

8. Starr S. Deadly Climate Change From Nuclear War: A threat to human existence, available at: https://​www.​armscontrol.​ru/​pubs/​en/​deadly-​climate-​cha​ngef​romn​ucle​ar-​war.​pdf.

9. Velikhov E., Kokoshin A. Yadernoe oruzhie i dilemmy mezhdunarodnoi bezopasnosti [Nuclear Weapons and International Security Dilemmas]. Mirovaya ekonomika i mezhdunarodnye otnosheniya, 1985, no 4, p. 20.

DOI: https://​doi.​org/​10.​33917/​es-​2.​182.​2022.​6-​19

One of the most promising tools for monitoring and predicting social processes are agent-based models, which are widely used abroad. Their advantage lies in the consideration of the system under study at the level of its individual individuals, which increases the realism of these computer-based assessment methods. In Russia, this direction is also developing, although not so actively. The article discusses the dynamics of the population of Russia, as well as the factors of increasing the birth rate, successful examples of the practical implementation of agent models for studying social processes, a brief description of the model we developed, which includes 146 million agents, is given. With the help of this tool, a forecast of the population of Russia and an assessment of the impact on this indicator of some measures aimed at improving the demographic situation were obtained.

Ис­точ­ни­ки:

1. Makarov V.L., Bakhtizin A.R., Il’in N.I. Modelirovanie i otsenka natsional’noi sily Rossii [Modeling and Assessing the National Strength of Russia]. Ekonomicheskie strategii, 2020, no 2, pp. 6–19, available at: DOI: https://​doi.​org/​10.​33917/​es-​2.​168.​2020.​6-​19.

2. Makarov V.L., Bakhtizin A.R., Il’in N.I., Sushko E.D. Natsional’naya bezopasnost’ Rossii [National Security of Russia]. Ekonomicheskie strategii, 2020, no 5, pp. 6–23, available at: DOI: https://​doi.​org/​10.​33917/​es-​5.​171.​2020.​6-​23.

3. Andreev E.M., Darskii L.E., Khar’kova T.L. Naselenie Sovetskogo Soyuza: 1922–1991 [Population of the Soviet Union: 1922–1991]. Moscow, Nauka, 1993, 143 p.

4. Federal’naya sluzhba gosudarstvennoi statistiki [Federal State Statistics Service], available at: https://​rosstat.​gov.​ru.

5. Zdravookhranenie [Healthcare]. Federal’naya sluzhba gosudarstvennoi statistiki, available at:  https://​rosstat.​gov.​ru/​folder/​13721.

6. Sobotka T., Matysiak A., Brzozowska Z. Policy responses to low fertility: How effective are they? Working Paper, May, 2019, N 1, available at: https://​www.​unfpa.​org/​sites/​default/​files/​pub-​pdf/​Policy_​responses_​low_​fertility_​UNFPA_​WP_​Final_​corrections_​7Feb2020_​CLEAN.​pdf.

7. The World Bank, available at: https://​data.​worldbank.​org.

8. Aganbegyan A.G. O katastroficheskom uvelichenii smertnosti i merakh po sberezheniyu naroda v Rossii [On Catastrophic Increase in Mortality and Measures to Save the People in Russia]. Ekonomicheskie strategii, 2021, no 4, pp. 6–13, available at: DOI: https://​doi.​org/​10.​33917/​es-​4.​178.​2021.​6-​13.

9. Country Comparisons — Death Rate. The World Factbook, available at: https://​www.​cia.​gov/​the-​world-​factbook/​field/​death-​rate/​country-​comparison.

10. Goldstein J.R., Koulovatianos C., Li J., Schr der C. Evaluating how child allowances and daycare subsidies affect fertility. Goethe University Frankfurt am Main, available at: http://​nbn-​resolving.​de/​urn:​nbn:​de:​hebis:​30:​3-​430067.

11. Kalwij A. The impact of family policy expenditure on fertility in western Europe. Demography, 2010, N 47(2), pp. 503–519, available at: DOI: https://​doi.​org/​10.​1353/​dem.​0.​0104.

DOI: https://​doi.​org/​10.​33917/​es-​1.​181.​2022.​20-​33

The introduction of digital technologies has a significant impact on the development of the entire public administration system and its most important element — the strategic planning system. Modern digital intelligent technologies and the work of government bodies based on the advanced achievements of management science and the unity of methodological approaches make it possible to raise the strategic planning system to a qualitatively new level. The key to success is the coordinated development of both the public administration system itself and the nationwide information and control systems. The authors, based on the analysis of the content of strategic management activities and the information used for this activity, formulated general approaches to the choice of information technologies to ensure the implementation of the stages of strategic  management.

Ис­точ­ни­ки:

1. Putin V.V. Zasedanie Soveta Bezopasnosti 27 sentyabrya 2021 g. [Meeting of the Security Council on September 27, 2021. Ofitsial’nyi sait Prezidenta RF, available at: http://​kremlin.​ru/​events/​president/​news/​66777.

2. Ukaz Prezidenta RF ot 8 noyabrya 2021 g. N 633 “Ob utverzhdenii Osnov gosudarstvennoi politiki v sfere strategicheskogo planirovanii v Rossiiskoi Federatsii” [Decree of the President of the Russian Federation of November 8, 2011 No. 633 “On Approval of the Fundamentals of State Policy in the Sphere of Strategic Planning in the Russian Federation”]. Garant, available at: https://​www.​garant.​ru/​products/​ipo/​prime/​doc/​402915816/

3. Kudryashova E.V. Informatsionnye tekhnologii dlya strategicheskogo planirovaniya v Rossii: etapy razvitiya i perspektivy [Information Technology for Strategic Planning in Russia: Development Stages and Prospects]. Gosudarstvennaya vlast’ i mestnoe samoupravlenie, 2021, no 2, pp. 36–40.

4. Andreeva Z.K., Baryshnikov P.​Yu., Zhurenkov D.A., et al. Strategicheskoe tselepolaganie v situatsionnykh tsentrakh razvitiya [Strategic Goal-setting in Situational Development Centers]. Pod red. V.E. Lepskogo, A.N. Raikova. Moscow, Kogito-Tsentr, 2018, 320 p.

5. Kupryashin G.L., Shramm A.E. O printsipakh datatsentrizma, setetsentrizma i komandnotsentrizma v kontekste informatizatsii gosudarstvennogo upravleniya [On Principles of Data, Network, and Chain-Of-Command Centricity in the Context of Digital Governance]. Gosudarstvennoe upravlenie. Elektronnyi vestnik, vyp. 76, 2019, October.

6. Zatsarinnyi A.A., Il’in N.I., Kolin K.K., et al. Situatsionnye tsentry razvitiya v polisub”ektnoi srede [Situational Development Centers in a Multi-subject Environment]. Problemy upravleniya, 2017, no 5, pp. 31–42.

7. Kaplan R., Norton D. Strategicheskie karty. Transformatsiya nematerial’nykh aktivov v material’nye rezul’taty [Strategic Maps. Converting Intangible Assets into Tangible Results]. Moscow, Olimp-Biznes, 2005, 512 p.

8. Kaplan R., Norton D. Sbalansirovannaya sistema pokazatelei. Ot strategii k deistviyu [The Balanced Scorecard. From Strategy to Action]. Moscow, Olimp-Biznes, 2017, 320 p.

DOI: https://​doi.​org/​10.​33917/​es-​4.​178.​2021.​22-​35

The article discusses a promising and well-proven tool for analyzing economic relations in socio-economic systems, which is actively used all over the world — the matrix of financial flows. The paper identifies the main areas of its application and briefly describes the history of its development in the world and specifically for Russia. The author also features the process of constructing a matrix for 12 economic regions of our country by types of economic activity. In the course of filling with statistical data the problem of assessing the volume of interregional trade was identified, which made it necessary to undertake an additional research, the results of which are presented in the article. In conclusion an example of practical use of the constructed matrix as an independent tool, as well as part of a more complex economic and mathematical model, is demonstrated

DOI: 10.33917/es-5.171.2020.6-23

The article is continuing the research “Modelling and Assessment of Russia’s National Power”, dedicated to calculating the index of national power, which is currently the most informative and popular indicator in the world that integrally characterizes the aggregate potential of a particular country and allows at the same time to compare the level of its power and socio-economic development with the other countries’ level. The research results were published in the “Economic Strategies” magazine No. 2 for 2020. [1].

If the national power of the state, in fact, determines its potential capabilities and mainly gross indicators are used for the

calculation, then the national security indicators are calculated on the basis of normalized values (as a rule, per capita) and witness the development level of one or another component of the country’s socio-ecologic and economic system, as well as efficiency of using the existing potential. It should be reminded that in terms of the National Integral Strength Index, which includes many components, Russia ranks fourth in the world, slightly behind India. In this article, using the methods of multivariate statistical analysis, we’ll calculate the national security indicators of the UN member states, also defining the position of Russia, but in addition, we’ll also estimate the threshold values for all the factors of national security considered in the work. In the last part of the paper, we’ll give a medium-term forecast of national security