Impact of the Trade War Between the United States and China on the EAEU Foreign Economic Activity. Interim Results and Prospects

DOI: 10.33917/es-8.174.2020.16-25

The article analyzes the causes of the trade war between the USA and China, in particular, dwells on the problems of further globalization of the world economic relations, multidirectional vectors of the two states’ development in recent decades, as well as disproportion in the trade balance. The paper presents statistical assessment of the trade war results, expressed in structural changes of trade relations between the US and China, as well as dynamics of their imports from the EAEU countries. Based on statistical data, the conclusion is made on economic prospects of the EAEU to compensate certain product groups that are falling out during the trade war in the Chinese and American markets, and general recommendations are given on building the EAEU’s foreign economic strategy, taking into account the current global changes

References:

1. Kuznetsov A.V. Nadnatsional’noe valyutnoe regulirovanie: teoreticheskie i prakticheskie podkhody [Supranational Currency Regulation: Theoretical and Practical Approaches]. Finansy i kredit, 2018, vol. 24, iss. 4, pp. 193.

2. 孙少岩、马玥竹：《浅析中俄跨境人民币结算》，《吉林金融研究》，2014年第12期，第50-51页。

3. 黄琨：《边境贸易中结算问题研究——以中俄边境贸易中的结算问题为例》，《现代商贸工业》，2008年第5期，第191页。

4. Soglashenie mezhdu Tsentral’nym bankom Rossiiskoi Federatsii i Narodnym bankom Kitaya o mezhbankovskikh raschetakh v torgovle v prigranichnykh raionakh (zaklyucheno v g. Shankhae 22 avgusta 2002 g.) [Agreement Between the Central Bank of the Russian Federation and the People’s Bank of China on Interbank Settlements for Trade in Border Areas (Concluded in Shanghai on August 22, 2002)]. Konsul’tantPlyus, available at: http://www.consultant.ru/cons/cgi/online.cgi?req=doc&base=INT&n=47054#09166608939314935.

5. 李中海：《卢布国际化战略评析 一兼论中俄贸易本币结算宰》，《俄罗斯研究》，2011年第4期，第100页。

6. Plan deistvii po realizatsii polozhenii Dogovora o dobrososedstve, druzhbe i sotrudnichestve mezhdu Rossiiskoi Federatsiei i Kitaiskoi Narodnoi Respublikoi (2005–2008 gg.) [Action Plan for Implementing Provisions of the Treaty on Good Neighborliness, Friendship and Cooperation Between the Russian Federation and the People’s Republic of China (2005–2008)]. Ofitsial’nyi sait Prezidenta RF, available at: http://www.kremlin.ru/supplement/2056.

7. 徐国才：《改善中俄本币结算操作模式促进边境贸易发展》，《金融博览》，2008年第11期，第45页。

8. Protokol mezhdu Tsentral’nym bankom Rossiiskoi Federatsii i Narodnym bankom Kitaya o rasshirenii geograficheskikh ramok territorii v Kitae, gde raspolozheny banki, imeyushchie pravo osushchestvlyat’ raschety v natsional’nykh valyutakh v rossiisko-kitaiskoi prigranichnoi torgovle (Pekin, 9 noyabrya 2006 g.) [Protocol Between the Central Bank of the Russian Federation and the People’s Bank of China on Expanding Geographical Framework of the Territories in China, Which House the Banks Entitled to Carry out Operations in National Currencies in the Russian-Chinese Border Trade (Beijing, November 9, 2006)]. Garant, available at: https://base.garant.ru/2564338/

9. 章远军：《中俄本币结算面临蓬勃发展新机遇》，《银行家》，2011年第3期，第127–129页。

10. Informatsiya Banka Rossii ot 13 oktyabrya 2014 g. “Bank Rossii zaklyuchil soglashenie o valyutnom svope s Narodnym bankom Kitaya” [Information from the Bank of Russia Dated October 13, 2014 “The Bank of Russia Entered into a Currency Swap Agreement with the People’s Bank of China”]. Garant, available at: https://www.garant.ru/products/ipo/prime/doc/70662788/

11. Bank Rossii zaklyuchil soglashenie o valyutnom svope s Narodnym bankom Kitaya [Bank of Russia Signed a Currency Swap Agreement with the People’s Bank of China]. Sait Banka Rossii, available at: https://cbr.ru/press/PR/?file=13102014_154408if2014-10-13T15_39_28.htm.

12. Soglashenie mezhdu Tsentral’nym bankom Rossiiskoi Federatsii i Narodnym bankom Kitaya o raschetakh i platezhakh (Nizhnii Novgorod, 23 iyunya 2011 g.) [Agreement Between the Central Bank of the Russian Federation and the People’s Bank of China on Settlements and Payments (Nizhny Novgorod, June 23, 2011)]. Garant, available at: https://base.garant.ru/591621/

13. 周海、李艳玲：《中俄人民币跨境业务任重道远》，《中国金融》，2019年第14期，第39–41页。

14. 俄直投基金与中方伙伴宣布成立俄中人民币基金，俄罗斯卫星通讯社，http://sputniknews.cn/economics/201904261028315756/（上网时间：2020年5月10日）

15. 李中海：《卢布国际化战略评析 一兼论中俄贸易本币结算宰》，《俄罗斯研究》，2011年第4期，第100页。

16. Bank for International Settlements (BIS), available at: https://www.bis.org/statistics/eer.htm?m=6%7C381%7C676.

17. 王志远：《人民币和卢布汇率的决定与调整》，《欧亚经济》，2016年第1期，第19页。

18. Kommentarij Banka Rossii po operatsiyam v ramkakh budzhetnogo pravila [Comments of the Bank of Russia on Operations Under the Budget Rule]. Sait Banka Rossii, available at: https://www.cbr.ru/Press/event/?id=6482.